This is the fifty-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Northumberland

Seats: 4
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 2

1. Berwick upon Tweed

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14116 (36.7%)
Labour: 5061 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16806 (43.7%)
BNP: 1213 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 2690 (7%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Beith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If Alan Beith had been refighting this seat I still think it would have fallen to the Tories, but seeing as he’s standing down it’s almost certain to. However, the fact that PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson has a bet on a LibDem hold makes me feel nervous. There’s still a bit of Labour vote here. If the LibDem successor to Beith can get them voting tactically, that could swing it for the Libs.

2. Blyth Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6412 (16.6%)
Labour: 17156 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 10488 (27.2%)
BNP: 1699 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.3%)
English Dem: 327 (0.8%)
Independent: 819 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 6668 (17.3%)

Sitting MP: Ronnie Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Hexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18795 (43.2%)
Labour: 8253 (19%)
Lib Dem: 13007 (29.9%)
BNP: 1205 (2.8%)
Independent: 1974 (4.5%)
Others: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5788 (13.3%)

Sitting MP: Guy Opperman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Wansbeck

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6714 (17.5%)
Labour: 17548 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 10517 (27.5%)
BNP: 1418 (3.7%)
Green: 601 (1.6%)
UKIP: 974 (2.5%)
Christian: 142 (0.4%)
Independent: 359 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7031 (18.4%)

Sitting MP: Ian Lavery (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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