Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

OXFORDSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Banbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Tony Baldry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat. Sir Tony Baldry is standing down.

2. Henley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)

Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Oxford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Andrew Smith came within a whisker of losing this seat in 2005 but was safely home in 2010. He will be again.

4. Oxford West & Abingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)

Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Slightly to her own surprise, I suspect, Nicola Blackwood beat Evan Harris in 2010 (thus gaining the thanks of many LibDems!) and I’d say is a dead cert to dramatically increase her majority in May. LibDems firmly believe they will retake the seat, but never seem to offer any firm reason as to why. The Labour vote has been squeezed to the pips and can’t reduce much further. The LibDems’only hope is for UKIP to take votes from Nicola Blackwood, but, well, how can I put it, is Oxford really the kind of place to vote UKIP?

5 Wantage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)

Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Witney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)

Sitting MP: David Cameron (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE