in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LINCOLNSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1, UKIP 1
Final Prediction: Con 6, Lab 1

1. Boston & Skegness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21325 (49.4%)
Labour: 8899 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 6371 (14.8%)
BNP: 2278 (5.3%)
UKIP: 4081 (9.5%)
Independent: 171 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12426 (28.8%)

Sitting MP: Mark Simmonds (Con)
Prediction: *UKIP gain
Final Prediction: Conservative hold*

This is one of UKIP’s top targets. On the face of it, it’s a safe Tory seat, but a Survation poll in the constituency in September showed UKIP way ahead. Admittedly the sample size was only 596, but it will have shocked the local Conservative Party. The UKIP candidate is 22 year old Robin Hunter-Clarke. Strange to pick such an untested candidate, but at least he’s local. Mark Simmonds is standing down, complaining he can’t live on £120,000. If UKIP are to make a breakthrough, it might well be here. UPDATE: In the latest Ashcroft poll the Conservatives are three points ahead here. I am hearing that the UKIP campaign has not gone well. UKIP may still pull through but I now have my doubts.

2. Gainsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24266 (49.3%)
Labour: 7701 (15.6%)
Lib Dem: 13707 (27.8%)
BNP: 1512 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2065 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10559 (21.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Edward Leigh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Grantham & Stamford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26552 (50.3%)
Labour: 9503 (18%)
Lib Dem: 11726 (22.2%)
BNP: 2485 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1604 (3%)
Others: 929 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 14826 (28.1%)

Sitting MP: Nicholas Boles (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Lincoln

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17163 (37.5%)
Labour: 16105 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.2%)
BNP: 1367 (3%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Dem: 604 (1.3%)
Independent: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1058 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

UKIP is hurting the Tories throughout Lincolnshire. In most of the other seats the majorities are large enough to cope with that, but not in Lincoln. This seat was Labour throughout the 13 Blair/Brown years and is likely to return that way in May.

5. Louth & Horncastle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25065 (49.6%)
Labour: 8760 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 11194 (22.2%)
BNP: 2199 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2183 (4.3%)
English Dem: 517 (1%)
Others: 576 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13871 (27.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Tapsell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Sir Peter Tapsell is standing down. Victoria Atkins will succeed him.

6. Sleaford & North Hykeham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30719 (51.6%)
Labour: 10051 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 10814 (18.2%)
BNP: 1977 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2163 (3.6%)
Others: 3806 (6.4%)
MAJORITY: 19905 (33.4%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Phillips (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. South Holland & the Deepings

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29639 (59.1%)
Labour: 7024 (14%)
Lib Dem: 7759 (15.5%)
BNP: 1796 (3.6%)
Green: 724 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3246 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 21880 (43.6%)

Sitting MP: John Hayes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE