Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LANCASHIRE

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 9, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 9
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

Sitting MP: Jack Straw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anything could happen here but the Ashcroft poll suggests a Tory win, as do many local pundits, so I will stick with that.

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Birtwhistle (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat last time, and he has the mother of all struggles to regain it. He’s been very independent minded and that will help him, and he’s a very local man. But you’d have to bet on a Labour win here.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history, but it won’t revert to blue in 2010.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. I doubt whether they will be successful in 2010 unless they get a majority in excess of 30.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

Sitting MP: Eric Ollerenshaw (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

There’s a big LibDem vote here, and I suspect we can all guess which direction some of that will be heading in. You’d have to be brave to bet against Labour here.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

David Morris won this back from Labour after three terms. UKIP could influence the result here. The Ashcroft poll gives Labour only a 3% lead so not all is lost for the Tories, but a Labour gain is the most likely result.

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A true bellweather seat, I have a feeling Andrew Stephenson will hold on. If he increases his majority we’re looking at a Tory majority. If he loses the seat we’re looking at a Labour majority.

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Will Straw is standing here but he faces an uphill struggle against Jake Berry. I don’t see this falling to Labour unless Ed Miliband is heading for a majority. UPDATE: An April Ashcroft poll put the two parties level pegging.

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

Sitting MP: Lorraine Fulbrook (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Similar to the last seat I don’t see this falling to Labour unless they are heading for a majority. The only difference is that Lorraine Fulbrook is standing down. She’s popular and this might slightly depress the Tory vote.

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat but I can’t see the Tories winning here unless they’re heading for a good majority.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE