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A Warning on Immigration to David Cameron

Jacqui Smith thinks this could be the Month the Tories lose public trust on immigration.

By Jacqui Smith

25 Nov 2011, 19:18

It’s not just the recent Border Agency fiasco which is putting pressure on the government’s immigration policy.  The Coalition government are failing to meet the headline grabbing targets that they set themselves to reduce net migration to ‘tens of thousands’.  And research into public attitudes to immigration suggests that the public could be dissatisfied even if the government achieved their crude cap on immigration.

It is a big challenge for any government is to convince the public that they are in control of our borders and immigration generally.  There are undoubtedly problems being caused at the border by the large cuts in staff available to do necessary checks.  However, there was much about the now infamous ‘pilot’ programme run this year which sounds sensible and right.  By sacking Brodie Clark, however, Theresa May sends out the message that the border was out of control and she was out of the loop.  I don’t think either of these things are wholly true, but that’s what will stick in peoples’ minds.

This week, we learn that net immigration has reached its highest ever level.  Far from making progress towards their cap target, the government is further away from it.  They deserve to be held to account for this failure.  Either they knew that they’d fail with this target and pledged it purely for electoral advantage or they are ignorant of the complexities of immigration.  Deviously disingenuous or stupidly disingenuous – take your pick!

To succeed in reducing net migration, there must either be a reduction in people coming from outside the EU or from inside the EU or an increase in those leaving the UK.  The government can only actually control the first of these.  Yesterday’s figures showed fewer people leaving the country and there appears to be no reduction in those coming to the UK from the rest of the EU so the pressure to bring down immigration from outside the EU becomes even greater just to stand still.  The last government had already stopped all unskilled migration from outside the EU and the Points Based System was tightening the criteria for skilled workers and students.  So reductions will need to come from further cuts to students, skilled workers and family reunions.  Overseas students are a major export earner for the country and - as Higher Education funding is slashed - vital for the financial health of many universities.  Further reductions in skilled workers will either restrict growth opportunities for UK employers or mean further EU immigration to fill the gaps.  The alternative, of course, would be a concerted effort to train UK workers for these roles, but there is no sign that the Government is serious about this.

Succeeding in meeting the immigration cap would come at a cost to our export earnings, the financial stability of our universities and economic growth.  Presumably the government believes that it would be popular, however.  They may be wrong here too.  A recent review of the evidence about public attitudes to immigration by the Migration Observatory linked to Oxford University identified that a large majority of people want immigration to be lower.  However, it also found other surveys that showed that many also believe that there are important areas such as healthcare where we should welcome skilled people from abroad.  There are even plenty of people who believe that family members should be able to be reunited if that can be done at no cost to the state.  These are precisely the groups who will have to be radically reduced if the government is to meet its cap.  

Polls suggest that the Conservatives are more trusted on immigration than Labour.  They could have used this opportunity to develop a more sophisticated and honest argument about types and sources of immigration, their benefits and what we should expect from those we allow to come to this country.  But instead they chose a crude cap on immigration as their immigration ‘dog whistle’.  They will only have themselves to blame, when they are held to account for failing to deliver.