Cleggmania: Round Two?
Peter Watt urges us not to write off Nick Clegg come 2015.
20 Nov 2011, 13:00
The Man in the Middle
That seems a very long time ago now and the elation is no more. The Lib Dems are polling in single figures neck and neck with UKIP. Nick Clegg’s personal ratings are also on the floor with his net approval ratings at -38 according to Opinium this month, down from -35. It wouldn’t be unfair to say that in many quarters he has become a vaguely comedic figure, the butt of many a political joke. Just Google ‘Nick Clegg jokes’ and they are all pretty much in the genre of:
‘There's two things I don't like about Nick Clegg; his face.’ Or;
‘Why did Nick Clegg cross the road? Because he told everyone he wouldn't.’
If you want to guarantee a cheer in your speech to the Labour faithful then just slag off Clegg. Particularly if you use words like ‘hypocrite’, ‘poodle’ or my favourite ‘useful fool’ in the same sentence as the Deputy Prime Minister. The Tory right similarly seem to despise him and their anti Lib Dem rhetoric seems to have gone up several notches recently. If you are in any doubt about this then simply scan the comments on most posts over at Conservative Home.
And to be fair, you can see why this is. From calls to scrap tuition fees before the election; to voting to increase them after. From a lifelong passion for voting reform before the election; to the fronting up of a damp squib referendum on AV after. From pro-Europe and pro referendum before the election; to voting down calls for a referendum after. They all add to the sense that Nick Clegg is Deputy PM in name only, prepared to do anything, say anything and abandon any principle in order to stay in power. Not exactly an ideal way to win friends and influence people.
So the common wisdom is that he is a busted flush and come the next election he will be given his just deserts by the voters. With ratings as low as they are his party will be all but wiped out, losing votes and seats to the left and right. Clegg would then resign as Leader and someone else would take over as Leader of a Party that has once again found its natural place in the political order – third. Secretly delighted Lib Dem activists could begin to rebuild their beloved local council base and start winning seats. Lib Dem conference would be fun again – but no one but the faithful would be there, certainly not the media. And the big two, Labour and Conservative, could get on with the serious business of two-party politics. Phew! Natural order will have been restored.
But I am not so sure. I think that Nick Clegg will do a bit better than that at the next election. There is no doubt that after the initial love in after the last election he has had a nightmare. But the Lib Dem Conference earlier this year was the start of a quiet fight back. I say quiet because that is what it is. Both Cameron and Miliband had bad Conferences but Clegg had a good Conference because nothing happened. There was no big bang or announcement but more significantly nothing bad happened. And the Lib Dem activists seemed content to allow nothing to happen – a hopeful portent for Team Clegg. Since Conference there has been more of the same – nothing. The Deputy PM has been all but invisible. Oh he has popped up here and there on the front-bench and so on. But you would have to work quite hard to find much that he has said of note.
Meanwhile Cameron and Miliband have been front and centre fighting it out. Cameron has looked weaker than he did and Miliband only slightly stronger. In fact for the last year the opinion polls have barely moved at all. Labour has a slight lead but Ed Miliband is unpopular; Cameron is popular although a bit less so. Labour isn’t trusted on the economy and the Tories aren’t trusted on the NHS. Neither Party looks like they are about to get themselves into a position where they can confidently expect to form a majority administration after the next election. And that is before the uncertainties of the boundary reviews, seat reductions and the small matter of the unprecedented economic uncertainty. There is of course plenty of time to go, but there is a reasonable chance that the next election will again be tight.
And while they are fighting to a standstill, Nick Clegg has stopped making things worse for himself. Because actually, to be a player after the next election he actually doesn’t need to do anything dramatic at this stage. In reality getting his polling numbers up into the high teens is entirely possible in the months leading up to the poll, so he should be content to stay relatively quiet right about now. Come the election though he will want to talk about the future. And he will be able to talk about the difference that Lib Dems have made in Government policy. Ironically the Tories will need to reinforce this as they will want to talk about what they would want to do if they were unencumbered by coalition. And I would suspect that the public will, even if only for the brief period of the election, rediscover that Nick Clegg is likeable and they will listen a bit more than they would now.
And if he was polling in the high teens in a tight election then he will be courted by the other Parties and he can again name his price.
So it might look like a return to two party politics is likely. It might even be that the faithful in the Labour and Tory ranks think that for all intents and purposes it already has. But I think that there is still a fair chance that it is Nick Clegg that is having the last laugh come the morning of Friday May 8, 2015.
Comments (16)
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20/11/2011 13:50"straws at clutching".
Madasafish, I hereby grant you your certificate of sanity!
20/11/2011 14:38"he can again name his price"
He didn't name his price last time. Labour weren't interested and theirs was less an offer, more an insult. The Tories already had a plan and offered it to him. The Tories ensured that the media would love the offer, meaning that they could fry Clegg if he refused it.
Further, you should know that years before an election, party leader ratings are a better indicator of future poll success than polling directly. A man hiding behind the parapet in case his rating falls further than the abyss he's already in is not strong.
20/11/2011 14:58Madasafish I'm not clutching at any straws. In fact I'm reminding people of the blindingly obvious. The Lib Dems don't need to improve their polling numbers much to make a difference in a tight election. With the current unprecedented levels of economic insecurity it is hardly beyond the realms of possibility that they do.
20/11/2011 15:01Richard, all true but there are many Tories who think he's extracted a price quite successfully. And of course leader ratings matter hugely but he doesn't need to get to the low 40's to matter (in a tight election) like Cameron and Miliband.
20/11/2011 15:19The entire basis for your argument hinges on the fact that Nick just doesn't exist at the moment and as long as he doesn't say anything, he could do well!?
Are you mad? Nick is indeed playing a blinder at the moment. Because he knows if he actually voices any of his views - Pro EU, Pro Euro, Ant Capitalist, High taxation, High Immigration - he'd get laughed at.
After all as Abe Lincoln quoted from Solomons proverbs:
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"
None the less, in a election, you have to speak at some point. Blending into the furniture won't cut it.
20/11/2011 16:56Incidentally Peter
UKIP currently poll higher that the Lib Dems in the Youth vote 18-24
In the total electorate, they are within 2 or three points from the Lib Dems.
It is disgusting that the MSM does not even recognise this, lumping UKIP in the "other" group. They are closer to the LDs than between Labour / Tories.
I say this as a Tory, not a UKIP supporter.
20/11/2011 17:02Shaft120 the entire basis of my argument isn't that he is silent at the moment. I do think that right about now it is certainly sensible. I just don't think that getting into the high teens is beyond them and then they will still probably have a role in a hung parliament.
20/11/2011 17:09You would have to have lived in a monastery on another planet orbiting another solar system to not to have been deafened by the triumphalist chanting from Labour and Tory activists and fellow travellers regarding the impending doom of the Liberal Democrats. However, activists are generally thick-witted, disconnected from both the public and reality and believe only that which reinforces their prejudices.
The public won't even start thinking about who to vote for until six months before the next General Election and won't have made up its collective mind until three months out.
As to the fate of the LD's?
They will simply poll their usual 16 - 23%. They will suffer in the most of the north of England, Wales and Scotland, as the economies their are doing badly, but many of their sitting MPs will benefit from incumbency. They will do well in the south and in a few parts of the north, where their support base is deeply rooted.
The other two main parties have difficulties, which they would rather were not discussed publicly.
Labour will fail to gain in the south and will fall back in relatively middle class parts of the north and Midlands, as it has decided to promote economic policies that please its core vote and activist base, but are not seen as remotely credible amongst the broader public. In Scotland the SNP might well make large gains from Labour, which is seen as long past its sell by date, and the SNP will stand on a platform of defending the interests of the Scottish public against Westminster's "Tories", both Labour and Conservative.
The Conservatives suffer simultaneously from being seen as managerial Quislings by irrational right wing voters and self-obsessed by middle of the road voters. Naturally it isn't possible to please both dubious Labour and Lib Dem swing voters whilst appealing to the lunatic Kipper fringe. I suspect the Conservatives will manage to fall between both stools, just as they have managed to do for the past two decades.
I rather suspect that the next Parliament will look rather similar to the current one, except that Labour will be both ready and prepared to deal, despite fervently denying the fact until the moment the very last ballot box has been sealed.
The LDs will have learned from the present experience about driving a bargain. Naturally, Alex Salmond needs no one to tell how him to do that.
20/11/2011 17:47Peter
You say that it isn't the basis of your argument, yet fail to give any reason.
I certainly can't see anything else in your article or your answer to my comment.
He will want to " talk about the future" isn't really enough to say I'm missing the gist of your 'analysis'
Where as you litter the article with lines like:
"the start of a quiet fight back"
"Clegg had a good Conference because nothing happened"
" nothing bad happened"
"seemed content to allow nothing to happen"
"there has been more of the same – nothing. The Deputy PM has been all but invisible"
"there has been more of the same – nothing. The Deputy PM has been all but invisible"
"he actually doesn’t need to do anything dramatic"
"he should be content to stay relatively quiet right about now"
Please tell me where I have misunderstood your complicated argument that Nick Clegg is Nice. Nice and quiet?
20/11/2011 18:08Shaft120 not sure what your point is, but mine really isn't complicated. Uncertain times economically and politically, Lab/Con - neither looking likely to get a majority. Lib Dems likely to improve their polling position in the months leading to an election. Nick Clegg capable of connecting with some/enough of electorate at that point. Hung Parliament with Lib Dems as Kingmaker again.
I thought that Paul Mckeown (above) said it rather well.
20/11/2011 18:20In addition, there is likely to be a televised debate again. A head to head with Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband will be very enjoyable.
20/11/2011 20:45Oh Shaft. You're using samples of 18-24 votes from surveys of around 1000 people. the 18-24 year olds would need to have a sample of around 1000 to ensure its within a 2% margin of error. However, the sample you refer to is of around 100 most of the time thus the margin of error is huge. Polls have recently shown the youth for the Lib Dems is HIGHER than the Tories. Just because UKIP occasionally have a surge it does not mean they deserve the same platform. The Lib Dems are in GOVERNMENT and UKIP have shown no sign of emergence in any national poll since the Euro elections (even the Lib Dems are making gains this year in by elections!).
20/11/2011 22:17Paul.
I was wondering if anyone would mention the unique dynamic at play in Scottish politics that is seeing both the "big two" loose ground.
21/11/2011 20:38Joshua Dixon makes some very sensible points on the sample sizes for those polling numbers. And in terms of the local elections in individual wards since May the LDs are holding some, gaining some, losing some. It often turns more on local issues than national one. But the party is not being systematically punished in the way it was in May.
More differentiation between the Coalition partners is occurring over time. The more the Conservatives complain that the LDs are stopping them doing what they would like to do - which are frequently things that the majority of voters would find objectionable - the more it helps the LDs to make their case.
Also, the LDs are not synonymous with Nick Clegg. Their futures and fates may well coincide, but they may not.
23/11/2011 12:18Previous commenters are right the reason why he is not getting attacked is because he is not saying anything. However a leopard never changes his spots so just as Nick Clegg is not going to stop being a rampant europhile, Greece and Italy are not gonna stop being Banana republics with dodgy finances. The Euro is gonna be under constant warfare and Merkozy are going to be pushing more Europe and the British people are NEVER gonna accept that. QED Nick Clegg is done for.
23/11/2011 22:43