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Is Palin Running?

Shana Pearlman speculates on whether Palin will run for President, and concludes she will announce sooner rather than later.

By Shana Pearlman

24 Aug 2011, 11:45

Political observers are abuzz with the news that Governor Sarah Palin would be delivering the keynote address to a Tea Party rally on September 3. It’s for the Tea Party of America, a new Iowa-based organization, and they’re planning a big advertising campaign for the event; it’s guaranteed to get massive media coverage and a big crowd. This news got the rumour mill to churn out speculation that she was going to make a “big announcement” – after all, September 3 is three years to the day that Palin spoke, to great acclaim, to the Republican National Convention. Political pundits from Dick Morris to Karl Rove said they believed Palin was going to announce in September.

However, the former Alaska governor has thrown cold water on this speculation. Her Political Action Committee has released a statement which says in part, “Any professional pundit claiming to have 'inside information' regarding Governor Palin's personal decision is not only wrong but their comments are specifically intended to mislead the American public." Real Clear Politics is also reporting that this isn’t going to be an announcement, but “might offer some more clues about whether she might jump into the race in September.”

At a certain point, Palin has to declare her candidacy, which she herself has acknowledged. Logistically, as well as legally, she can’t wait for that much longer. She’ll need to make a move to get on the states’ primary ballots, and of course, there’s a field organization and fundraising operation that she’s got to get up and running.  The first Iowa caucuses are, at the moment, scheduled for early February, which gives her just over 5 months to develop her ground attack. It’s true she doesn’t need any help with name recognition, and she’s got her extremely devoted supporters to help with the volunteer recruitment, but it takes time to deploy them properly and actually raise the money to finish strong in Iowa and then move on to success in the early primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.

But I can’t see Palin sitting out the 2012 election either. She has been, thus far, through her canny use of social media and her keen understanding of resonant political language, the most successful person at reframing President Obama’s agenda to highlight its weaknesses. Hers is a voice that people want to hear, and it will be an effective counterpoint to what Obama’s campaign will say (which is, “Do you really want THAT guy to be President?”). I can’t see her as a typical campaign surrogate either - she’ll become the story, not the man or woman she’s stumping for. I can’t see her, for example, campaigning on behalf of Mitt Romney. People will want to hear what she has to say and they won’t care much about anything he says.

So with apologies to Governor Palin – I don’t claim to have any insider knowledge about what she’s going to do – I think she is going to run. It’s going to be a pretty atypical campaign; she’s not going to have any of the usual staff you’ve seen before and isn’t going to do the same fundraising events you’re used to seeing. But being different is part of her identity, it’s who she is as a politician. If she were to do things the usual way, she’d be turning her back on her supporters and, ultimately, herself.  But whether she runs or not, get used to hearing from her, because over the next 14 months, she’ll have plenty to say.