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Palin Not To Run

Shana Pearlman looks at why Sarah Palin has decided not to run and what it means for the Republicans.

By Shana Pearlman

6 Oct 2011, 17:30

Last night Governor Sarah Palin announced that she would not be running for President of the United States.  The decision was not wholly unexpected; her numbers had been underwater for a while.  Two days ago CBS News released a poll that revealed only 23% of Republican primary voters wanted her to get in the race.  Grassroots conservatives and Tea Party members still adore her, but she was unable to convert moderate and independent voters locked up by Mitt Romney.

Even more importantly, because a number of states have been moving up their primaries to have more influence over the early primary process, the deadline for becoming an official candidate was looming large over the calendar.  The deadline to file official papers for New Hampshire is now October 28, and while Palin has no problem with name recognition or support networks, she would have a problem raising enough money to mount a national campaign in such a short amount of time.  We have approximately 80 days till the first primary votes in the 2012 presidential campaign; it would have seriously damaged the Palin brand if she had been unable to get donors to open their pockets enough.

Why did she wait so long, then? There are several candidates running as the “true conservative” option - Bachmann, Perry, Cain - but only one that represents moderate and establishment Republicans.  In order for Palin to swoop in and take up the mantle of the people’s representative, she needed another centrist to take votes away from Romney.  The governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, failed; the “Draft Paul Ryan,” the wunderkind from Wisconsin responsible for much of the financial philosophy of the modern Republican party, refused; and for the last straw, the bombastic governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, declined (much to the sadness of many a political observer – an Obama/Christie election would be one of the most entertaining of all time).  In the absence of another moderate, it was difficult for Palin to build the coalition of voters she needed to stand out from the pack.

Not that this development is great news for Romney either.  It seems like his ceiling of support is about 23-25%; conservatives don’t like him and don’t really want to vote for him if there’s another option.  It looks like the main beneficiary of Palin’s decision is pizza magnate Herman Cain.  Bachmann’s flamed out by making one too many unforced errors.  Perry’s poor debate performances have seriously hampered him, though sympathy for him has grown after the Washington Post rather clumsily attempted to make him look like a racist.  Conservatives are now turning to Cain, a man with no political experience whatsoever, but who has the message conservatives like to hear.  

What’s next for Palin? The first thing she did after announcing she wouldn’t run was release an ad for her Political Action Committee.  She’ll be a kingmaker as she was in the 2010 election by raising money and endorsing candidates.  In 2014, Mark Begich, the Democrat who currently holds one of Alaska’s US Senate seats, comes up for re-election; if Palin were to challenge him and win, that would give her a platform should she wish to run for President again. Or, if Romney did become president, making her Secretary of Energy would shore up his conservative bona fides. Palin’s 47 years old – 25 years younger than her running mate John McCain. She’s got time to do whatever she likes.