Six Nations Preview
Gareth Knight previews the first weekend of the Six Nations rugby.
4 Feb 2012, 00:00
Six Nations
Six Nations: France vs Italy, Scotland vs England, Ireland vs Wales
Gareth Knight looks forward to the first weekend of the 2012 Six Nations Championship
The Rugby World Cup seems a long time ago for the home nations. France made it far further than they should have, Ireland and Wales had moments of glory but ultimately failed to make the grade, Italy put up a tremendous fight but went home early, Scotland were inconsistent and it ended up costing them and England seemed to lose the plot entirely.
All six countries have seen changes – some forced by the players, some by the management. This championship sets the tone for the next few years as we build to next year’s Lions Tour and the 2015 World Cup so we can expect some standout performances from current unknowns and some flash in the pan appearances from players who won’t make the grade at international level.
Saturday 4th February 2012
Coverage begins 1.30pm, BBC 1/HD
Kick-off 2.30am; Stade de France, Paris
France (IRB world ranking: 3) vs Italy (12)
Last year Italy finally beat France, but surely they cannot do it again, not in Paris? I expect a French landslide victory and last year will go down as a one-off. France are the favourites for the tournament while Italy are the favourites to get the wooden spoon, again.
The French team is based on the solid pack that got them to a World Cup final but it’s interesting to note that Picamoles is preferred to Harinordoquy at Number 8. The backs see significant changes and the Yachvili / Parra half back partnership seems to have come to an end. All eyes will be on the bench rather than the field as we get to judge new coach Phillipe Saint-Andre and see if he’s remotely as ‘out there’ as his predecessor.
France team to play Italy (confirmed):
Front row 1/2/3: V Debaty / W Servat / N Mas
Second row 4/5: P Pape / L Nallet
Back row 6/8/7: T Dusautoir / L Picamoles / J Bonnaire
Half-backs 9/10: D Yachvili / F Trinh-Duc
Centres 12/13: W Fofana / A Rougerie
Wings 11/14: J Malzieu / V Clerc
Fullback 15: M Medard
Subs: D Szarzewski, JB Poux, Y Maestri, I Harinordoquy, M Parra, L Beauxis, M Mermoz
This is a very different-looking Italian team and I hope they will do far more with the ball after their excellent front row and Number 8 have secured it for them. Given how strong the Italian team was I’m surprised that new coach Jacques Brunel has made so many changes. If he gets it wrong there will be little forgiveness. Nick Mallett built the team up over time and Brunel cannot be allowed to throw that away.
Italy team to play France (confirmed):
Front row 1/2/3: A Lo Cicero / L Ghiraldini / M Castrogiovanni
Second row 4/5: A van Zyl / Q Geldenhuys
Back row 6/8/7: A Zanni / S Parisse / R Barbieri
Half-backs 9/10: E Gori / K Burton
Centres 12/13: A Sgarbi / T Benvenuti
Wings 11/14: L LcLean / G Venditti
Fullback 15: A Masi
Subs: R D’Apice, L Cittadini, M Bortolami, S Favaro, F Semenzato, T Botes, G Canale
Saturday 4th February 2012
Coverage begins 4.30pm, BBC 1/HD
Kick-off 5pm; Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Scotland (10) vs England (5)
The worst possible opening match for England’s new boys but in the long term this could be the exact kind of opening fixture that’ll make the team strong. Scotland should have kicked England out of the World Cup and only just missed out doing so. This could be close, but it shouldn’t be.
If you read my articles on the Rugby World Cup you’ll know that I rate Scotland very highly. They have far more ability than their results suggest with an excellent pack and some immense attacking backs. The problem with Scotland seems to be that they rarely have both forwards and backs working in harmony and this leads to frustrating, low scoring games. The Scots are under pressure in this game – they are expected to win not just because they have more experience and they’re at home, but because this is a side that has been inches from winning games for so long and they’ll be mentally up for the fight.
Scotland team to play England (confirmed):
Front row 1/2/3: A Jacobsen / R Ford / E Murray
Second row 4/5: R Gray / J Hamilton
Back row 6/8/7: A Strokosch / D Denton / R Rennie
Half-backs 9/10: C Cusiter / D Parks
Centres 12/13: S Lamont / N de Luca
Wings 11/14: M Evans / L Jones
Fullback 15: R Lamont
Subs: S Lawson, G Cross, A Kellock, J Barclay, M Blair, G Laidlaw, G Morrison
It’s a very different England to what we’ve seen before with a new coach and new players. We don’t yet know how they’ll play and that makes them unpredictable and dangerous. I expect to see fluid rugby with a decent pack providing medium-paced ball for the backs akin to a decent club team. England will not light up the tournament but they certainly won’t be slaughtered by all comers. If, and it’s a big if, they can get a win against Scotland, they face Wales and Ireland at Twickenham and there’s a very slim chance of a Triple Crown. While I do expect the English to perform better than expected, I wouldn’t recommend remortgaging the house to bet on England retaining the championship. Watch the back row for an indication of how England can perform – openside flankers are the in-thing in world rugby right now and England needs to catch up to the other nations that can boast opensides of world quality.
England team to play Scotland (confirmed):
Front row 1/2/3: A Corbisiero / D Hartley / D Cole
Second row 4/5: M Botha / T Palmer
Back row 6/8/7: T Croft / P Dowson / C Robshaw
Half-backs 9/10: B Youngs / C Hodgson
Centres 12/13: B Barritt / O Farrell
Wings 11/14: D Strettle / C Ashton
Fullback 15: B Foden
Subs: R Webber, M Stevens, G Parling, B Morgan, L Dickson, J Turner-Hall, M Brown
Sunday 5th February 2012
Coverage begins 2.30pm, BBC 1/HD
Kick-off 3pm; Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Ireland (6) vs Wales (8)
Despite the best efforts of some in the press, this is not some revenge match for Ireland following the World Cup. These two teams know each other well and there’s not a shred of animosity between them – the World Cup result was totally fair. Sadly this match is being played at the wrong end of the tournament and it will lack its usual flair and excitement. I suspect this will be a muted game with both teams playing it safer than they usually would as players on both teams try to get their international legs back while figuring out how to play without some key players.
I’ve written before about Ireland needing to learn how to play without O’Driscoll and this time they have no choice as O’Driscoll is taking some time out. Paul O’Connell will ensure the on-field leadership is solid and if he captains Ireland in the manner he captained the Lions in 2009 there will be no problem in that area. I’ve been a fan of Fergus McFadden for some time and I’m very surprised he isn’t starting as he can spark the aggressive and fast attacks that O’Driscoll has traditionally led. In the autumn I tipped Ireland to win the Six Nations largely on the basis of “one last push” from the O’Connell and O’Driscoll generation, but I’m not so sure anymore. I think they’ll have the edge over Wales in the opening match but it’s England and France away that will be the real tests. The fact we’re worried about Ireland when they’re a world class team but missing just one first choice player says it all.
Ireland team to play Wales (confirmed):
Front row 1/2/3: C Healy / R Best / M Ross
Second row 4/5: D O’Callaghan / P O’Connell
Back row 6/8/7: S Ferris / J Heaslip / S O’Brien
Half-backs 9/10: C Murray / J Sexton
Centres 12/13: G D’Arcy / K Earls
Wings 11/14: A Trimble / T Bowe
Fullback 15: R Kearney
Subs: S Cronin, T Court, D Ryan, P O’Mahoney, E Reddan, R O’Gara, F McFadden
The reason you’re reading this article so late is because Warren Gatland has had to leave his team decisions until the last minute due to injury concerns. I think the opening game against Ireland makes this a very difficult year and the momentum they had in the World Cup has long gone. If Wales fail to win three of their games (Italy and Scotland at home should be givens but Ireland away, England away and France at home are all tough to call) it will be seen as a return to form - a failure following a moment of expectation. I’d give the edge to Wales to get the three wins as I feel the France game will only be lost if Wales lose their heads in the emotion of what might have been. Injury means that four out of the first choice front five are out through injury and with Dan Lydiate out, the back row is not at full strength as they face one of the best back row threesomes in rugby. Wales cannot hope for the amount of possession they had in the World Cup quarter final and I fear this could be a long campaign that gets off to a pretty bad start.
Wales team to play Ireland (confirmed):
Front row 1/2/3: R Gill / H Bennett / A Jones
Second row 4/5: B Davies / I Evans
Back row 6/8/7: R Jones / T Faletau / S Warburton
Half-backs 9/10: M Phillips / R Priestland
Centres 12/13: J Roberts / J Davies
Wings 11/14: G North / A Cuthbert
Fullback 15: L Halfpenny
Subs: K Owens, P James, A Powell, J Tipuric, L Williams, J Hook, S Williams
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