Special Election Pain for the White House
Daniel Berman thinks that last week's elections may cause some concern for Barack Obama.
20 Sep 2011, 19:00
Obama woes
If there was a saving grace to this narrative it was that these results did not come as a complete surprise. The Democrats had already given up hope of picking up Nevada’s second district, which had narrowly gone for John McCain 50-49, several weeks ago. In New York’s 9th, a much more Democratic seat held by Representative Anthony Weiner until his resignation amidst the furor over his sexting, the signs had already begun pointing to an upset last week. By Tuesday it would have been far more surprising if the Republicans had not won both seats.
Nevertheless, the results have fed into a narrative of doom for the President and his party. The results in New York have figured particularly in this meme, given the districts Democratic lean, large Jewish population, and location within New York City, and therefore in close proximity to the media elite. Republican Bob Turner’s victory in the district was impressive. Turner is neither moderate nor Jewish, and won a mere 39% against Weiner last November. His 54% to 46% win over Assemblyman David Weprin was therefore a major achievement.
It was, however not quite as impressive as it has been portrayed, nor as concerning for Barack Obama. The seat’s Democratic lean has been in rapid decline over the last decade. Aided by Joe Lieberman’s presence on the ticket, it gave 67% of its vote to Al Gore in 2000, but only 56% to John Kerry in 2004. Obama received only 55% here in 2008, making it one of only a handful of seats where he performed worse than Kerry. From voting 18% more Democratic than the country as a whole in 2000, it only voted 2% more in 2008, and given its demographics, Orthodox Jews concerned with Israel and blue-collar Catholics, it’s likely that it probably will vote more Republican than the country at large in 2012.
The Democratic campaign was also wrought by infighting. Expecting the seat to be eliminated and not wanting to face a challenge from an incumbent losing his seat else ware, Congressman Joe Crowley, the head of the Queens Democratic machine passed over far stronger candidates for a largely unknown party hack in Weprin who did not even live in the district, and was most famous for being the son of a former Assembly Speaker. Weprin ran a bad campaign, and inherited his father’s enemies without his friends. Former New York Mayor Ed Koch and longtime local Assemblyman Dov Hikand, both with strong followings in the Jewish community crossed party lines to endorse Turner. With so much working against them, it’s somewhat surprising that by the end Weprin did as well as he did.
The result was also localized. Democrats won all six of the special elections for State Assembly held at the same time, two of which were within the congressional districts. All but one was won by a greater margin than in 2010. Furthermore, there are few seats elsewhere in the country with the demographic mixture in NY-9, and even if it was representative of a larger trend in New York, even a nine point swing would not seriously endanger Obama’s hold on the state.
If however Obama can take solace in the uniqueness of circumstances in New York, the results in Nevada are more worrying, not in terms of the outcome itself, but in the margin by which it was delivered. While McCain had narrowly carried the seat, Democrats were competitive in 2006 and 2008, and the party recruited Nevada’s State Treasurer, Kate Marshall to run. She raised a substantial amount of money, and while by the end most expected her to lose, the 22 point margin, 59% to 37% by which she lost has to concern a President who probably needs Nevada to be reelected next year. A competent local Democrat running 12% behind his 2008 performance does not presage doom; it does act as a warning sign, especially given the fact that Nevada was one of the few places where the Democrats did comparatively well in 2010. In particular, Marshall’s nine point loss in the state’s capital of Reno, which any Democrat usually needs to win in order to win statewide indicated that Harry Reid’s victory over the Tea Partier Sharon Angle may have been an isolated event.
The real and immediate impact of the special elections is likely to be felt not in the race for the White House, but in the battle for Congress. One of the key components of any election is candidate recruitment, and special election results and the national environment that they seem to portray are used by the party committees in their efforts to convince reluctant candidates to run for congress. This creates a situation in which the perceived political environment a year before elections often has a major impact on their outcome, even when the climate as a whole changes. Democrats recovered significantly in 1996 from their losses in 1994, but their gains were undermined by the decisions of many southern Democrats sitting in difficult districts to retire in 1995. By the same token, Democrats would almost certainly have taken the House in 1998 had they had access to the candidates and resources that they had managed to field in 1996. Republicans in 2008 were undermined by the decision of many of their members to retire in 2007, and Republican gains in New England were effectively non-existent in 2010 because they failed to convince serious candidates to run for office in the critical months of 2009.
These results will discourage on-the-fence candidates from entering on the Democratic side, especially if they sit in safe legislative districts. And it will encourage stronger Republicans to enter, especially in the southwest where a number of districts resemble Nevada’s 2nd. If so, this week gave Democrats quite a lot to worry about.
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