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Those Other Elections – A Preview Of The United States Off-Year Elections

Daniel Berman previews the 2011 elections in the United States starting with West Virginia.

By Daniel Berman

5 Oct 2011, 19:15

While the Presidential campaign is dominating most political coverage in the media, there are actual quite a few other elections occurring this fall. Four states, starting with West Virginia on October 4th, have gubernatorial elections this year, while two further states, Virginia and New Jersey, have legislative races which will have a major impact on national politics by way of the political ambitions of their Republican governors. All six states will provide a preview of whether the overall political environment has improved for the Democrats since November of 2010, or whether last month’s special elections should act as a warning of further disasters to come.

The first of these, a Governor’s race in West Virginia will occur tonight, with the rest occurring on the second Tuesday of November.

West Virginia – October 4th
This is a special election to fill the seat vacated by former Governor Joe Manchin upon his election to the US Senate last year. Earl Ray Tomblin, the Senate President succeeded to the office and won the Democratic nomination against a divided field. He faces Republican Bill Maloney. West Virginia is a heavily Democratic state at the local level. Since 1933 there has been only two Republican Governors, and the Democrats hold supermajorities in both houses of the legislature even after 2010. However, the state has moved heavily to the Right nationally, and Obama’s numbers are in the high 20s. Maloney is attempting to tie Tomblin to Obama, and is benefiting from discontent within the Democratic Party about his ascension to the position. Polls have shown Maloney within single-digits albeit trailing, with the most recent one from PPP, released the weekend before the election, showing Maloney down a single-point, 47-46. If he wins, it will be a bad sign for Obama and Democrats in Appalachia next year, especially in parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Louisiana – November 8th
How much difference a year makes. In 2007 the Democrats held every statewide position except one, controlled both houses of the legislature, and were dominant at the local level. This year Bobby Jindal has drawn a neophyte with no funding as an opponent, and the Democrats are not contesting the rest of the state offices. As for the legislature, even if every voter in the state voted for a Democrat for State Senate the Democrats would fail to control the chamber – they are running only 17 candidates for 39 seats. This is by far the least interesting election of the year, with the only question being how close Jindal comes to 70%.

Mississippi – November 8th
Mississippi Democrats can console themselves that they don’t live in Louisiana. That is about the only thing they have going for them. Their candidate for governor, Jonny DuPree, is the African American Mayor of Hattiesberg and will struggle to win 40%. Their real goal here is to hold onto the State House(unlikely) and the Attorney General’s Office, where Jim Hood, the incumbent, is struggling against the tide to be the last Democrat in statewide office remaining in the Deep South.  The Democrats have a strong candidate for State Treasurer in Connie Moran, but she is up against an enormous demographic tide. As for the legislature, the Democrats seem to be aiming for damage limitation, though if they sweep the competitive races they could nominally maintain control of the State House. This would give Democrats a seat at the table in redistricting whereby they could preserve their influence.

Kentucky – November 8th
Democrats in Kentucky occupy a space somewhere between the Republicans in Mississippi and Louisiana. The candidacy of Republican Senate President  David Williams against Democratic Governor Steve Beshear has been such a disaster that the only question is whether the Democrats will achieve a complete sweep of every statewide office. Williams, battered by scandals and a poor campaign, has been running as much as 30 points behind Beshear, and it seems possible he may drag down the rest of the Republican ticket. Pretty impressive for a state Barrack Obama will likely lose by 20 points or more next year.

Virginia – November 8th
Virginia has legislative races this fall. While the Republican majority in the State Assembly is unassailable, the State Senate is narrowly controlled by Democrats, 22-18. Governor Bob McDonnell, sitting on a 65% approval rating and a multi-million dollar war-chest is spending extensively to try and reverse those numbers. At stake is redistricting, the imposition voter ID policies, and a host of bills relating to restricting the power of public sector unions and restricting abortion. Also at stake is whether 2008, when Obama won the state for the Democrats for the first time in decades, or 2009, when Republicans swept everything on the ballot, is the true state of Virginia politics. With other states looking weak, Obama needs Virginia next year and a Democratic rot would be a bad sign.

New Jersey – November 8th
New Jersey will also have legislative elections this fall, allowing potential Presidential candidate Chris Christie, to either strengthen his position or face a humiliation at home. Republicans are better funded than they have been in decades, but the new legislative maps, selected by a non-partisan tie-breaker, favors the Democrats. The latter currently control the Senate 24-16 and the Assembly 47-33. The GOP should make gains in both chambers, but it would be a major upset if they were to take either of them, and a major win for Christie. By the same token, it would be equally impressive if the Democrats managed to hold their losses to one seat in each chamber or even managed to gain seats.