What Florida Tells Us
Tony McNulty looks at where we are with the race for the Republican nominee?
10 Feb 2012, 19:00
The Two Frontrunners
As anticipated, Mitt Romney won the Florida Republican primary and won it well. He polled 46% of the vote, compared to 32% for Gingrich, 13% for Santorum and 7% for Paul. On the face of it, then, a comfortable victory that should have at least some of the competition thinking seriously about pulling out of the race. But, considering the responses to the Florida vote, this seems unlikely. When Newt Gingrich spoke, soon after the announcement of the vote, he was surrounded by supporters waving placards that read “46 states to go”. He claimed the result showed clearly that it was a two-horse race between Conservative Gingrich and Romney, the Massachusetts moderate, that he would contest everywhere and would return to Tampa – the venue for this year’s republican convention – as the nominee. Although some of these words can be discounted as post-defeat bluster (he is not on the ballot in every caucus or primary state, for example), this is not the behaviour of a man about to step down in the interest of party unity.
Rick Santorum had already fled Florida and spoke from Nevada – the next state to hold a caucus. He claimed the Florida result showed clearly that Gingrich had failed in his bid to be the conservative champion and that he, Santorum, was now the only conservative in the race who could still beat Romney. Ron Paul has not made any noises about withdrawal either – but he has always been clear that he would stay in the race.
Romney will be happy with the Florida result, but is realistic enough to know that even such a comfortable victory was not likely to lead to any withdrawals by other candidates. His job as front-runner is to do just that – lead from the front. His victory speech in Florida focused much more on Obama than it did the other republican candidates – although he has more work to do on his begrudging magnanimity towards the other candidates. He will be pleased with many of the trends in the exit polls – he was 52-28 ahead of Gingrich with women voters, compared to 41-36 with men; he almost tied with Gingrich on evangelical voters, 38-37; and although, not surprisingly, he lost to Gingrich 41-30 with very conservative voters, he swept the moderate vote 59-20. He will also be encouraged by some of the regional voting. He did very well, as expected, in southern Florida, but also scored strongly in the Florida Panhandle. Northern Florida acts much more like the neighbouring counties of the Deep South, than it does like the rest of Florida – and although Gingrich was ahead in many of the Panhandle precincts and counties, it was not by much of a margin. This augurs well for him in some of the southern primaries that are coming up.
So, as the circus moved on to the Nevada desert, the Romney camp was upbeat, but still concerned that their victories were taken for granted, and their slip-ups always magnified. Gingrich knew he had lost momentum, Santorum was happy to head out West into more hospitable territory for him and Paul soldiered on regardless.
Romney started off as clear favourite in the Nevada caucus – over 25% of the electorate are Mormons and he won the equivalent context four years ago by a wide margin – 51% to 14% for Ron Paul. He had to win well in Nevada and did so – gaining 50% of the vote to 21% for Gingrich, 19% for Paul and 10% for Santorum. The problem for Romney was that his victory was completely expected by the media, and, having noted it, moved on to the next contests. The only newsworthy elements from Nevada were the failure of Gingrich to bounce back after Florida, the failure of Santorum to score highly and the fact that although Paul did well, as he was never going to be the nominee, it didn’t matter.
Not too long ago, Romney was tipped to win the caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota as well as the ‘beauty contest’ in Missouri, all held on 7 February, very easily. Interestingly, this did not happen and the contests turned out to be a ‘mini Super Tuesday’ for Rick Santorum. Romney was beaten by Santorum in Colorado (40% Santorum, 35% Romney, Gingrich 13% and Paul 12%) and in Minnesota (45% to 17% with Ron Paul on 27% and Gingrich on 11%). He also lost badly to him in the Missouri ‘beauty contest’ by 51% to 24% (with Paul on 12%).
Never knowingly gracious in defeat, Gingrich’s response to losing Nevada hovered between the unrealistic and the petulant. Gingrich was also undoubtedly the real loser in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. His claim to be the conservative focal point against Mitt Romney looks in tatters. His claim to be the only candidate that can take on Obama defies scrutiny. The schedule for primaries and caucuses in the rest of February plays against his strengths. Notwithstanding Romney’s robust showing in the Florida debates, Gingrich would be likely to shine in future debates – but the next debate isn’t until 22 February in Arizona. Colorado and Minnesota are states that were never going to favour Gingrich and he never even made the ballot in the Missouri ‘beauty contest’, although no delegates were up for grabs. (The actual caucus that will determine delegates in Missouri will be held in March). Each of these contests is important largely because they are the only ones happening. In any normal circumstances, none of these contests would receive much coverage. So with no debates and none of his favourite states in play, one imagines that Gingrich would have preferred much less time between now and the next really big day – super Tuesday on 6 March which includes four southern states – Virginia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Georgia, as well as the key state of Ohio.
Santorum will make much of his victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, but they remain junior contests in the wider scheme of things. None of these contests resulted in the allocation of binding delegates to any candidate and it seems very unlikely that Santorum can repeat this success. The next three contests - the Maine caucus on 4-11 February - and the Arizona and Michigan primaries on the 28 February, will take on new importance. Santorum is scoring just 13-14% in Arizona and Michigan, and barely 2% in Maine. He has a long way to go to generate any momentum and, despite his claims, it is not clear yet whether he has won the battle for the conservative soul of the party against Newt Gingrich. He claims that he has done so and said, after Colorado, that he “wasn’t the conservative contender against Mitt Romney, he was the conservative contender against Obama.” It remains to be seen whether he can now attract the money, support and resources to seriously take on Romney and leave Gingrich behind.
So Romney is right to maintain a degree of confidence as he heads to the next contests. The significant Mormon population in Arizona is likely to support him and, as his father, George, was the Governor of Michigan from 1963-69, Mitt is seen as a ‘favourite son’. At the moment, he has a 28% lead in Arizona and a 10% lead in Michigan – with Gingrich second in both states. This means, though, that he has it all to lose, but he could also reinforce his clear frontrunner status overnight.
It is clear than Ron Paul has tucked in and intends to pursue the race all the way to Tampa come what may. By the end of February, Romney may have consolidated his position, Santorum may have wrestled the conservative crown from Gingrich or Gingrich may have yet another resurgence- the only certainty is the enduring uncertainty of it all. The republican hope that a nominee would be in place by Super Tuesday on the 6 March at the latest will not be realised.
The irony is that the longer the race lasts, the more likely it is that the only real winner is President Obama, who looks in a stronger position with every passing, acrimonious phase of the republican race. Santorum will never, ever be the nominee; but his surge will help his ultimate enemy – Obama. It seems that the more America sees of this republican circus, the more four more years of Obama looks preferable.
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