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What Next For The Met?

As Sir Paul Stephenson and John Yates resign, former Labour Minister, Tony McNulty assesses the runners and riders for the next Head of the Met.

By Tony McNulty

18 Jul 2011, 19:30

Sir Paul Stephenson has resigned as the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police and, for the second time in less than three years, the country’s largest police force is in trouble. No sooner had the shock of this resignation registered, when the Assistant Commissioner, Specialist Operations, John Yates, also resigned. So the Met is without two of the seven top officers who run and lead it.  If the Met is dysfunctional, then it matters for the country, as well as for London.

Overall, the force is in relatively good shape – certainly in terms of the level of crime in London. Sir Paul has ensured that the command team leaders at the top of the Met are now far more united than they were in the past. He has tried to protect the Met’s ‘jewel in the crown’, neighbourhood policing and the safer neighbourhood teams, from attack by the Mayor, Boris Johnson – but 150 sergeants will now be lost from the safer neighbourhood teams. He has, with AC John Yates, helped lay the foundations for the policing, counter-terrorism and security of the Olympics next year and the challenge of the ongoing terrorist threat from Islamists and dissident Irish terrorists. Sir Paul will leave the Met in an overall much improved position, but leaderless at a time when we can ill-afford it to be. The gap at the top of the Met needs to be filled, as quickly as possible. Tim Godwin, Deputy Commissioner, is to step in as the interim Commissioner, as he did when Sir Paul was absent through illness recently and, to her credit, the Home Secretary has moved quickly by installing Bernard Hogan Howe, one of Her Majesty’s Inspectors of Constabulary (and formerly Chief Constable of Merseyside) in as the Deputy Commissioner. But what we need, at the very least, is a clear timetable for the replacement of Sir Paul at the earliest opportunity.

So who are the runners and riders to replace Sir Paul? As John Yates has also resigned then he will not be a contender, but prior to the hacking scandal he would have been. Of the other Assistant Commissioners, Cressida Dick, who is to move from the Specialist Crime Directorate to cover Yates’s job at Specialist Operations, could be a strong candidate. The other three ACs, Chris Allison, Ian McPherson and Lynne Owens would, one assumes, be unlikely to apply and it is not clear yet whether Deputy Tim Godwin will be an applicant.

There is much talk about an outside candidate – to offer a new broom, as it were, but this shows a lack of understanding about the dominance of the Met in policing in England and Wales. The Met accounts for over a quarter of police officers in England and Wales and it is unlikely that any senior officer has not had at least some limited experience in the Met. Part of the initial focus will be on candidates on the shortlist last time. Both Hugh Orde (currently President of the Association of Chief Police Officers, but had been Chief Constable  of the Royal Ulster Constabulary/Police Service of Northern Ireland) and Bernard Hogan-Howe, now ‘acting’ Deputy Commissioner, were both on the shortlist last time, when Sir Paul was appointed, and have, if anything, strengthened their respective claims to be considered. Both have had, as most senior police officers have, significant operational experience in the Met. Sir Paul Scott Lee, the other person on the shortlist, has since retired.

Beyond the candidates involved in the last appointment process, I would offer five further names – all strong potential candidates. Anytime there is a significant vacancy in one of our largest police forces, it is natural to look at the current incumbents in other large forces. On this basis, both Chris Sims (currently West Midlands Chief Constable) and Peter Fahy (currently Greater Manchester Chief Constable) will be strong candidates if they apply. Both have deserved reputations for a dynamic blend of modernism and innovation and for being coppers’ coppers. Stephen House is the Chief Constable of Strathclyde police but has extensive and recent experience in the Met at the highest level. He may well be happy to stay put in his native Glasgow.

Two other very strong candidates spring to mind – Sara Thornton, currently Chief Constable of Thames Valley, and Matt Baggott, currently Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), previously Chief Constable of Leicestershire. There was some talk about both of them last time round, but it was generally felt to be too soon for either of them. Both are extremely well-regarded, both have reputations as dynamic and innovative leaders and both have extensive experience in the Met – Thornton for 15 years and Baggott for 20 years. Both have experience in terrorism related matters too – Thornton within ACPO and in the recent and foiled airline plot (much of the investigation of which centred around High Wycombe) and Baggott in his current role at PSNI, but also within his career at the West Midlands force.

Any emerging shortlist is likely to contain some of the contenders outlined above and this potential shows that the policing world will come up with serious and dynamic contenders to take over the leadership of the Met – but a strong Met also needs the help and support of an equally dynamic political leadership but, between Theresa May, David Cameron and bungling Boris ‘hacking is codswallop’ Johnson, this has been sadly lacking.

Let’s get on with it for the sake of London and the country.