Why Foxy Foxy Is In Trouble
Iain Dale thinks the Defence Secretary can survive, but he has some serious questions to answer. And quickly.
8 Oct 2011, 21:50
Liam Fox: In Trouble
The trouble is that Liam Fox has quite a few enemies. And not all of them are in Number 10. The others are predominantly in the senior echelons of the military. They can't stand him, and you can bet your bottom dollar that they have been briefing the Sunday papers like there's no tomorrow.
So what's the case for the defence? Well it's certainly not the one just advanced by Tim Montgomerie on the TV just now. He reckons that Fox will be safe as, apart from IDS, he's Cameron's only Cabinet conduit to the right*. That simply won't wash. If you're going to defend Liam, you have to do it on the facts of the case. These are the questions which Fox needs to answer, according to Patrick Hennessy...
* Why did Mr Werritty, 34, visit the Ministry of Defence 14 times in just over a year, despite not being a government employee, and join Dr Fox on an official ministerial trip to Sri Lanka this summer.
* Has Mr Werritty ever had access to any classified MoD information?* How was Mr Werritty able to broker a meeting at a Dubai hotel in June between the minister and businessmen to discuss technology that allows service personnel to make encrypted phone calls home and according to them, a commercial dispute with American firm 3M?
* Why, until he was told to stop doing so, Mr Werritty also handed out business cards bearing parliament's portcullis logo which described him as "advisor [sic] to Rt Hon Dr Liam Fox."
* Is there any truth in claims that Dr Fox had agreed to raise the Dubai-based company's dispute with 3M in Cabinet?
These are a lot of questions. There can be little doubt that Fox and Werrity are close friends. The question here is about judgement. Werrity's judgement is clearly in question - you just need to look at the business cards to know that. But is Liam Fox's? Anyone who knows Liam knows he's basically a nice guy who is keen to impress and keen to please. He is a friendly guy. He doesn't like saying no. So is it possible his best friend asked him to do something and he said yes? Entirely. Would he have necessarily thought through the consequences? I doubt it.
I was just discussing this with an MP of my acquaintance. I said that if DD had been Defence Secretary it is entirely possible I might have visited him in the MoD 14 times in 16 months. I certainly wouldn't have had a business card saying I was his advisor, but if politicians aren't even allowed to see their best friends in their departments, we are entering a very dangerous world. The difference between me and Mr Werrity is that none of my business interests are in the area of lobbying or defence. And that's where Liam's danger radar should have been twitching. Or maybe one of his special advisors should have alerted him to the danger.
The Guardian's emails from Harry Boulter about the meeting with Fox and Werrity look bad. They will look even worse if it turns out there was any financial relationship between Werrity and Boulter. Unbelievably, the Guardian doesn't seem to have asked him the question!
The other reason we know that Liam is in trouble is because Number 10 made public that the PM had asked the Cabinet Secretary for a report by Monday morning. That didn't need to be made public, but it was. Draw your own conclusions. Why the haste? Because there are Defence Questions on Monday. Jim Murphy will also ask an Urgent Question, which I suspect The Speaker will grant. It's also possible there could be an UQ to the PM as this concerns a possible breach of the Ministerial Code. It's possible but not probable that Bercow would grant that. Basically, Number 10 is trying to insulate itself.
It's clear there is little love lost between Cameron and Fox. The PM is said to be convinced that Fox leaked the letter on defence cuts he wrote to the PM a few months ago. Cameron would shed no tears over his departure from government, especially as in these circumstances he would be a busted flush politically. But - and it's a big but - the reason Number 10 may in the end want to put a plug in the plughole before Fox disappears down it is because there is no readymade replacement. Stick with nurse for fear of worse, may be the mantra among some of the less daring advisers in Number 10.
Tim Montgomerie tweeted earlier that Owen Paterson would be an ideal replacement, as he would appeal to the right. Guess again. Harry Cole is touting David Davis. I'll plead the 5th on that one. The name being mentioned by many is the International Development Secretary, Andrew Mitchell. We'll see. Or perhaps not.
I think Liam Fox can survive. But only if he comes out fighting and quickly. He's got some powerful enemies ranged against him. If he hasn't seen them off by Monday lunchtime, he may live to regret it. It may be too late.
* Tim Montgomerie thinks I have misrepresented him. I didn't, because I wasn't the only one to interpret his comments that way, but THIS is how he has responded on Twitter.
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Iain Dale
Iain Dale is publisher of Total Politics, MD of Biteback Publishing & presenter of LBC's evening show.
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Comments (9)
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There hasn't been a SoS for Defence since George Robertson who was not a handpuppet for No 10 and also handcuffed by the Treasury. Liam Fox is the latest in a line of the hopeless and the military have been contemptuous of ministers since Robertson left ... we haven't reached the low water mark of Hoon, who was universally despised and known as 'TCH' or 'That C**t Hoon' by those in uniform.
Fox's integrity is busted. Following his example, why shouldn't senior officers take their other halves along to NATO HQ in Brussels for some Christmas shopping, take their industry chums along to procurement meetings, and just chuck it all on the expenses form 1771 (or whatever it is called now). Or give their pals a ride in a helicopter. There are words on the commissioning scroll including 'trust' and 'good conduct' that are alien to many politicians.
Fox is dead wood and must be ditched. Why not appoint a SoS with a military background? David Davis, potentially a loose cannon? Desmond Swayne, TA major and Cameron's bag-carrier? Or could they be reluctant to continue the long tradition of shafting the military, their comrades, which reached new lows with the asset-stripping SDSR. They need someone good to put up against Jim Murphy, a 'gifted politician' who can twist anything into a partisan attack regardless of truth or national interest.
09/10/2011 10:35@jessthedog - Come off it, being in opposition is always about partisan attacks when it comes to events like this. Do you seriously expect Jim Murphy to stand up and say, 'I'mn going to refrain from comment until we've heard all the facts'? Do you think Liam Fox would say that if the boot was on the other foot?
The Tories did it, and Labour are doing it - it happens.
I think you're being rather naive as well Iain. If Liam Fox didn't think of the consequences, then he's a lousy politician, and has no right being a minister -especially in such a sensitive position like Defence.
09/10/2011 12:46Defence hasn't been a serious minister at the helm since Robertson scarpered for NATO after the consistently-ignored SDR. It's been the bastard child of No 10 and the Treasury ever since. The main reason Fox got the job was because he had it in opposition...Labour appointments over the last decade were glove-puppets.
Jim Murphy is very good at being shamelessly opportunistic at the slightest opportunity and making it seem like it isn't. This is an open goal. Better get another goalie.
09/10/2011 13:40The only reason Fox will keep his job is that there is political advantage to be made from it by No.10 & No.11.
Tactically speaking this would give Cameron and Osborne the best opportunity to keep this Fox on a tight leash.
If he stays, get ready to hear less noise on EU from the right wing faction of the Conservative party. Nor will I rule out less resistance from the MoD to orders from No.11.
09/10/2011 18:18Of all the confections created by the media in recent years, this strikes me as one of the daftest.
09/10/2011 21:45I'm still struggling to work out what corrupt advantage anyone gained from this, or indeed how the 'immediate' report being demanded by Camerlot might dismiss such suspicions.
But I have no struggle at all in thinking of Armed Forces and Tory enemies who might have been briefing on this.
I hold no brief for Liam Fox, thinking him on the whole to be a pillock. But there are so many obvious agendas in here, a PM worth his salt would ignore the whole thing.
But then, we have to take most things these days with a pillar of salt....
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2011/10/06/at-last-a-party-leader-with-some-excellent-advice-for-david-cameron/
After the Expenses Scandal, I would expect all Ministers (and MPs!) to carefully review their conduct and ensure on money matters they were whiter than white.
And extend that to their business acquaintances, declarations of interst etc.
In other words, simple housekeeping and backside wiping.
Instead we get this.. And a denial subsequently proved a lie by a photograph..
I think Mr Fox is a good Minister (Defence need sone) but he also appears a naive and stupid ingenue...
10/10/2011 14:57As a Conservative voter it always amazes me that when the Party is regaining people's confidence one pillock or the other of the ministerial or shadow minitserial group makes a mess of things and distracts the attention. David Davis did it by rsigning and standing for a by-election , a non-event, when Cameron was gaining the attention in the opposition and winning arguments, and now it is this pillock's turn. The right wing of the Party is much too conceited,and now the smearing starts by the likes of Guardian and Labour. I do not consider Guardian as a serious papers and they lost all their arguments when their owners is found to be not paying their taxes in this country. Their Murdoch attack,their attack on Cameron and their dirt digging is all associated with their holier than thou attitide, except in reality it is such a charade.
11/10/2011 18:07Look the Sun, the Mail, and the Telegraph are now going after him with accusations that he is gay.
He is toast. (And it is odd Iain has disappeared from Twitter).
Still, as a gay man, I find all this very dispiriting if it's true.
12/10/2011 12:18Norman
I agree.
See another Conservative councillor likening gay marriage to animals --- or something...
I assume some of these people have had operations to remove any common sense of diplomacy and tact?
It's like the Euro troubles: we see Conservative MPs delighting in saying " I said it would never work" as if the destruction of the Euro would not make us all much poorer.
I'm all for diversity in views but there are times when silence is golden and gloating over others' misfortunes is not nice.
I would say that about 1/4 of the Conservative Party is similar to 1/4 of the Labour party: unpleasant and not nice to know.
It's just that the Conservative ones are richer and shout louder.
13/10/2011 14:14