Watch: This Week's CNNTalk

20 May 2017 at 00:43

Every Friday at Noon, I appear on a new CNN show called CNNTalk. This is week 3 and we discuss Trump and the UK election. Presented by Max Foster, the other two guests are Ayesha Hazirika and Liam Halligan. If you like it, do watch it live on CNN next Friday at 12 noon. It’s also streamed live on CNN International’s Facebook page.



Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


LBC Book Club: Iain talks to June Brown

Iain talks to June Brown, aka Dot Cotton, about her autobiography

Listen now

World Politics

Assange Remains the Sleazebag He Always Was, And Must Be Put On Trial In This Country For Jumping Bail

19 May 2017 at 14:32

Six and a half years ago, in December 2010, I was asked by the Mail on Sunday to write a column on Julian Assange. When it appeared I was traduced and slagged off by his many supporters. How could I not understand what a hero he is, I was asked? Very easily, as it happens. Anyway, six and a half years on I am rather proud that every word I wrote then has stood the test of time very well. It’s just a shame that Swedish prosecutors have let down the woman in question, who, I gather, has rectaed with shock and horror to the fact they have decided not to take the case any further. I hope that British authorities make clear that the moment he steps outside the Equadorian Embassy he will be arrested and put on trial for humping bail.

Anyway, read for yourself. (The original can be found HERE)

Over the past five years I, along with thousands of other bloggers, have played a small part in holding the mainstream media and politicians to account.

I’ve tried to encourage public authorities to be more transparent and open about what they do, and often caused them a few headaches when they’ve refused.

So you might think I would be a cheerleader for WikiLeaks boss Julian Assange and his self-styled mission to expose what goes on at the heart of government.

You’d be wrong. Far from being a 21st Century hero, I have come to regard Assange as a dictatorial charlatan whose real agenda is not the furtherance of greater transparency, but the furtherance of Julian Assange and his anti-American agenda.

His ego seems to be without equal and he’s now reached the dangerous point of believing his own publicity. So much so that some of his staunchest supporters, such as the Guardian journalist Nick Davies, have cut off contact with him.

WikiLeaks started off as a noble cause. It sought to shine light into the nooks and crannies of public life which had up until now remained closed off to us mere mortals.
Whistleblowing is often uncomfortable, yet WikiLeaks provided a forum for the powerful to be brought to book.

In journalistic terms, there was a point to it, as their work on scientology and the Trafigura scandal concerning the dumping of toxic waste in Africa showed.

But its ethics and operations are now coming under serious scrutiny, and rightly so.

Whenever anyone – journalist, or otherwise – reveals confidential information there has to be a point to it. By releasing three million random documents, illegally obtained from U.S. government computers, WikiLeaks put paid to its reputation in one fell swoop.

Had Assange and his cohorts sorted through the documents and filtered out those with a genuine public interest, he could have been seen as a modern-day hero.

But he released everything in the name of so-called transparency. He did it because he could – the prerogative of every dictator in history.

Assange is currently fighting efforts to extradite him to Sweden, where he is accused of sexually assaulting two women. It is alleged he raped one of them.

Yet during the past couple of weeks, celebrities including Jemima Khan and Bianca Jagger have stood alongside Leftist journalists such as John Pilger and Tariq Ali, and film director Ken Loach to denounce what they view as a ‘politically motivated show trial’.

But the authorities are not trying to extradite Assange over freedom of expression – they’re trying to extradite him over alleged rape.

For the Left to base their defence of him on ‘fairness’, ‘censorship’ and ‘suspicious timing’ is not only misleading but also very unfair on the women who have come forward with the allegations.

Could you imagine any other scenario where liberals, socialists and other members of the Left would be so cavalier with an allegation as serious as rape? Remember all those headlines about rape anonymity just a few short months ago?

Their hypocrisy stinks. It’s as if they are saying that Assange’s WikiLeaks work trumps any legal charges levelled at him.

The charges of sexual assault against Assange should be fully investigated. For anyone to say otherwise implies that the women are lying and that alleged rape is a trifling charge. It’s not.

Nobody knows if he did it, and that’s why he needs to be extradited and face exactly the same legal process that you or I would face in similar circumstances. The God of WikiLeaks gives the appearance of believing he is above the law. He is not.

Perhaps some of Assange’s defenders have more sinister motivations. Perhaps they are pro-Assange as he and his organisation have become virulently anti-American.
Some people might have more sympathy with him if he ever released any documents from China, or North Korea, or the mafia-controlled state of Russia.

Assange may be a public hero to some. But it is stupid and illogical to absolve him of all alleged criminal activities just because of his work.

A man can do commendable work, but be of bad character. And it is high time we stop judging Assange for his public deeds when, at the moment, it is his private life on trial.
We must ensure the separation of powers prevails. This most controversial of men must be judged by the law, not politics.

Assange has been quick to point the finger at dark forces within the Pentagon or the CIA for his arrest, yet the head of WikiLeaks in Sweden appears to be more sensible.

He says: ‘Let the police find out what actually happened. Of course, the enemies of WikiLeaks may try to use this, but it begins with the two women and Julian. It is not the CIA sending a woman in a short skirt.’

You’d have thought that The Guardian would be the first newspaper to support the concept that he should be judged under the rule of law.

Its journalists are normally the first to assume that men who face court on rape charges are guilty. And yet here, they’ve done a volte-face. Why? Because it would be deeply embarrassing for them if the source of virtually every Guardian front page for the past month turned out to be guilty.

And I say that with no presumption that he is.

It is also deeply ironic also that the newspaper which has been campaigning to bring David Cameron’s media supremo Andy Coulson to book for his alleged role in the News of the World phone hacking affair is the very same one which has no compunction in revealing nuggets of gossip and information to the world obtained illegally by WikiLeaks.

What’s different in the two cases? In the News of the World case, 99 per cent of the illegally obtained, hacked information was prurient gossip with no public interest. In the case of WikiLeaks, 99 per cent of the illegally obtained, hacked information was prurient gossip with no public interest.

But there is one sinister difference. In the WikiLeaks case, lives and national security have been put at risk. But we shouldn’t be surprised. Assange proved he was out of control in August when he demanded $700,000 from Amnesty International which had politely asked him to ensure WikiLeaks did not publish names of Afghan civilians who might then be targeted by the Taliban. Some called it blackmail.

It is, I suppose, possible to argue that every piece of government information should be made publicly available, but anyone who really believes that hasn’t given a thought to the anarchic consequences which would follow. Surely national security, at the very least, has to be a consideration?

Julian Assange purports to believe in total openness – except when it comes to himself.

He delights in asking politicians what they have got to hide. We might ask Mr Assange the same.

There is little in this issue that is about high principle. It is about political motivation and one man’s desire to be treated as a demi-god.

Assange is not a terrorist, as the increasingly ridiculous Sarah Palin suggests. But he is a narcissist and would-be demagogue.

If he was half the man he purports to be, he’d voluntarily get on a flight to Stockholm tomorrow and submit himself to Swedish justice.

If he’s as innocent as he says he is, what has he got to fear?




Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


Iain interviews Norman Tebbit about his novel

Norman Tebbit's first novel is about a dog.

Listen now


ConHome Diary: Why the PM Needs Another PPS (or Two) & When Will The Speaker Go?

19 May 2017 at 13:00

If there is a Conservative landslide of anything like the scale most pundits seem to expect I think the Prime Minister will need to think very carefully about her relationship with Tory backbenchers. Dealing with 390 or 400 MPs is very different to dealing with 330. May I make a suggestion? Instead of appointing only one PPS, Theresa May should appoint two, or even three. David Cameron sometimes had two, and Theresa May needs to do the same. George Hollingbery has done the job up to now, but he will quite reasonably expect a junior ministerial job after serving her for several years. If I were the PM, I’d appoint a grey beard from the ’97 or ’01 intake, another from the 2015 intake and maybe in the autumn one from the 2017 intake. It will be very important for her to keep her new MPs onside and it will be a very difficult task. There are enough discontents in the 2010 and 2015 intakes who believe their talents have so far been overlooked. After a couple of years, there will be another 40 or 50 from the new intake who will wonder why the Prime Minister isn’t recognising them.
A second idea would be to recreate the Backbench committees that the party ran in the 70s, 80s and 90s. There was one shadowing each government department, and they were an opportunity for MPs to shine in their specialist policy areas by becoming an officer of a particular group. They were abandoned after 1997 for the simple reason that there weren’t enough MPs to populate them. That won’t be a problem after 8 June.
Best quote of the campaign so far came from YouGov’s Joe Twyman, talking about party manifestos: “You might like the sound of some of the things on the menu, but if you don’t like the look of the restaurant, you’ll probably eat elsewhere.”

Yesterday I was due to have lunch at the House of Commons, but the election put paid to that. The occasion was/is the 90th birthday of a friend of mine, Audrey Barker, who was Conservative Agent in Norwich North for the 1987 general election, when I was the campaign manager. Audrey was a real ‘old school’ party agent and didn’t suffer fools (or politicians) gladly. She really did regard the candidate as a legal necessity and didn’t think twice about telling anyone exactly what she thought of them. In the end Audrey’s son entertained us to lunch as the Royal Overseas League Club on Piccadilly – more commonly known as the ‘in and ‘out. I still want to take her for lunch at the House of Commons, though. She’s now a constituent of Chukka Umunna, so I’d like to introduce her to him. Assuming he manages to retain his seat, of course…
Best headline of the week is from The Economist: “Labour’s Economic Programme: Old McDonnell has plan. He eyes IOUs.”

So why haven’t the LibDems made any sort of breakthrough in the polls since Theresa May called the election in mid April? A new YouGov poll this week might have the explanation. It showed that the LibDem policy of appealing to the 48% has fallen at the first hurdle. It seems the 48% is now 22%. Apparently only 22% of Britons believe the government should do a reverse ferret and stay in the EU and go against the June 2016 referendum result. 68% of us think the government should embrace Brexit and just get on with it. It appears that 23% of British people, who originally voted Remain now think the government should respect the referendum result and get on with Brexit. This goes some way to explaining why the LibDem vote share hasn’t moved at all, even in places where the LibDems are expected to win seats. In the South West they’ve gone up from 15% to 16% since May 2015. Meanwhile the Tories have gone from 47% to 52%. Even Labour have risen by 4% there. In London they’ve gone from 8% to 14% but will this really be enough to win back the seats the unexpectedly lost in 2015? It was reported in one of the Sunday papers that canvassers in Kingston & Surbiton, which the Tories won from the senior LibDem Ed Davey in 2015, are having great difficulty identifying and Tory Remain voters who are intending to give their votes to the LibDems. Without them, the LibDems can rightly fear hearing the expression “Conservative Hold” on election night. They may well lose Carshalton & Wallington too.
Last week when I interviewed Michael Gove I asked him if he’d accept a Cabinet job if Theresa May wins the election. Without hesitation, he looked me in the eye and said “yes”. He then laughed it off and said it was very unlikely to happen, as you’d expect him to, but I did think to myself, ‘hmmm, I wonder’. Since then he’s been used by CCHQ as a party spokesman more than once, and again yesterday he popped up speaking for the party in one or two morning interviews. When she sacked him, Theresa May apparently told Gove he’d have to earn his passage back. Since then he has been unfalteringly loyal and I suppose I would be less surprised than most if that passage back turned into a cabinet post in June 9th. The question is, which one? I’ll speculate on a reshuffle next week or the week after, but personally I’d love to see him back at either one of his previous cabinets posts. He understood what needed to be done on prison reform and it would be nice if he could see it through. Or, how about him going to Health! Can you imagine the faces on the left if that happened? It’s what Sir Humphrey might call a ‘courageous’ appointment…

I wonder if anyone else has wondered, like me, what happens to Mr Speaker Bercow in the event of a landslide victory. It’s true that he hasn’t annoyed the Tories quite as much since Theresa May become prime minister, but there is still a lot of anti feeling on the Tory benches, even if Sir Simon Burns is no longer there to tweak his tail. In the event of a landslide we have to assume that Lindsay Hoyle would be swallowed up in the Tory tsunami and wouldn’t be available to succeed Bercow, whenever that might be. I imagine Eleanor Laing would fancy the job, given that she is next in line in seniority, but I suspect she might face a very strong challenge from Jacob Rees-Mogg. He’s quite popular on the opposition benches and one can only imagine the delights we’d have in store. I’m sure Jess Phillips would happily be his cheerleader in chief and whip Labour MPs into line. There is a feeling that Theresa May would not be happy to support a Speaker putsch, but the price for that might well be for John Bercow to make clear he will depart within two years.


1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


Iain Talks to Emotional Muslim Caller About Terror

He takes it all very personally

Listen now

UK Politics

In the New House of Commons The Number of Women MPs Is Unlikely To Rise Much - But There Will be 24 More Female Tories...

14 May 2017 at 17:15

Over the last few days I have been burnishing my credentials as a political geek and been carrying out some research about the likely makeup of the next House of Commons. In particular the likely number of women MPs. I’ve used my Seat by Seat predictions to analyse how many female MPs there will be from each party and who they will be. I’ll come to the detail in a moment, but my research shows that the number of Conservative female MPs will rise by around a third, but the number of Labour MPs who are female will plummet, even though the percentage of women will rise. Overall, though, the total number of female MPs is unlikely to rise by more than a few.

Let’s put this into some historical context. Since 1918 there have been 456 female MPs. If I am right about the likely Tory majority and makeup of the House of Commons after June 8th we will see 35 new female MPs across all parties – 25 of them Conservatives. These include three ‘retreads’ (Mary Macleod, Esther McVey & Jo Swinson).

This is a list of all the new female MPs…

Bath Lib Wera Hobhouse
Batley and Spen Con Ann Myatt
Birmingham, Edgbaston Con Caroline Squire
Birmingham, Northfield Con Meg Powell Chandler
Brentford and Isleworth Con Mary Macleod
Bristol East Theodora Clarke
Bristol West Green Mary Scott Cato
Chelmsford Con Vicky Ford
Chorley Con Caroline Moon
Coventry North West Con Resham Kotecha
Coventry South Con Michelle Lowe
Dagenham and Rainham Con Julie Marson
Dewsbury Con Beth Prescott
Ealing Central and Acton Con Joy Morrissey
Gedling Con Carolyn Abbott
Great Grimsby Con Jo Gideon
Hampstead and Kilburn Con Claire-Louise Leyland
Harrow West Con Hannah David
Hornchurch and Upminster Con Julia Dockerill
Hove Con Kristy Adams
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Lab Emma Hardy
Leigh Lab Jo Platt
Lewes Lib Kelly-Marie Blundell
Lewisham West and Penge Lab Ellie Reeves
Oxford East Lab Annaliese Dodds
Saffron Walden Con Kemi Adegoke
Scunthorpe Con Holly Mumby-Scott
Tatton Con Esther McVey
Thornbury and Yate Lib Clare Young
Westminster North Con Lindsay Hall
Wolverhampton North East Con Sarah Macken
East Dunbartonshire Lib Jo Swinson
Alyn and Deeside Con Laura Knightly
Cardiff Central LibDem Eluned Parrott
Llanelli Plaid Mari Arthur
Newport West Con Angela Rhys Evans
Bridgend Con Karen Robson

After June 8th, assuming a Tory majority of around 130, there will be 195 female MPs in the House of Commons – only tfour more than there are at the moment. This is mainly because the number of female Labour MPs will reduce from 99 to 73. The number of Tory female MPs rises from 68 to 93, and the number of female LibDems from 0 to 5.

Percentage wise the Tory contingent goes up from 20.5% to 23.7%, the Labour proportion rises from 42.5% to 44.8%. The SNP drops from 20 to 17 female MPs and from 35.7% to 32%.

Here’s the list of all 195 female candidates I predict will be elected on June 8th by constituency.

Aberdeen North SNP Kirsty Blackman
Aldridge-Brownhills Con Wendy Morton
Alyn and Deeside Con Laura Knightly
Ashfield Lab Gloria de Piero
Ashton-under-Lyne Lab Angela Rayner
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP Corri Wilson
Banbury Con Victoria Prentis
Banff and Buchan SNP Eilidh Whiteford
Barking Lab Margaret Hodge
Barnsley East Lab Steph Peacock
Basingstoke Con Maria Miller
Bath Lib Wera Hobhouse
Batley and Spen Con Ann Myatt
Battersea Con Jane Ellison
Berwick-upon-Tweed Con Ann Marie Trevelyan
Bethnal Green and Bow Lab Rushanara Ali
Birmingham, Edgbaston Con Caroline Squire
Birmingham, Ladywood Lab Shabana Mahmood
Birmingham, Northfield Con Meg Powell Chandler
Birmingham, Yardley Lab Jess Phillips
Blackburn Lab Kate Hollern
Blaydon Lab Liz Twist
Bolton South East Lab Yasmin Quereshi
Bradford West Lab Naz Shah
Brent Central Lab Dawn Butler
Brentford and Isleworth Con Mary Macleod
Bridgend Con Karen Robson
Brighton, Pavilion Green Caroline Lucas
Bristol East Con Theodora Clarke
Bristol North West Con Charlotte Leslie
Bristol West Green Mary Scott Cato
Broxtowe Con Anna Soubry
Bury St Edmunds Con Jo Churchill
Camberwell and Peckham Lab Harriet Harman
Cannock Chase Con Amanda Milling
Cardiff Central LibDem Eluned Parrott
Castle Point Con Rebecca Harris
Central Ayrshire SNP Philippa Whitford
Chatham and Aylesford Con Tracey Crouch
Cheadle Con Mary Robinson
Chelmsford Con Vicky Ford
Chesham and Amersham Con Cheryl Gillan
Chippenham Con Michelle Donelan
Chipping Barnet Con Theresa Villiers
Chorley Con Caroline Moon
City of Durham Lab Roberta Blackman-Woods
Congleton Con Fiona Bruce
Copeland Con Trudi Harrison
Coventry North East Lab Colleen Fletcher
Coventry North West Con Resham Kotecha
Coventry South Con Michelle Lowe
Cynon Valley Lab Ann Clwyd
Dagenham and Rainham Con Julie Marson
Derby North Con Amanda Solloway
Derby South Lab Margaret Beckett
Devizes Con Claire Perry
Dewsbury Con Beth Prescott
Don Valley Lab Caroline Flint
Doncaster Central Lab Rosie Winterton
Dulwich and West Norwood Lab Helen Hayes
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Liz Savile-Roberts
Ealing Central and Acton Con Joy Morrissey
East Dunbartonshire Lib Jo Swinson
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow SNP Lisa Cameron
East Renfrewshire SNP Kirsten Oswald
Eastbourne Con Caroline Ansell
Eastleigh Con Mims Davies
Eddisbury Con Antoniette Sandbach
Edinburgh North and Leith SNP Deirdre Brock
Edinburgh South West SNP Joanna Cherry
Edmonton Lab Kate Osamor
Epping Forest Con Eleanor Laing
Erewash Con Maggie Throup
Erith and Thamesmead Lab Theresa Pearce
Falkirk SNP John McNally
Fareham Con Suella Fernandes
Faversham and Mid Kent Con Helen Whateley
Feltham and Heston Lab Seema Malhotra
Fermanagh & South Tyrone SF Michelle Gildernew
Garston and Halewood Lab Maria Eagle
Gedling Con Carolyn Abbott
Glasgow Central SNP Alison Thewliss
Glasgow North East SNP Ann McLaughlin
Glasgow North West SNP Carol Monaghan
Gosport Con Caroline Dinenage
Great Grimsby Con Jo Gideon
Guildford Con Anne Milton
Hackney North and Stoke Newington Lab Diane Abott
Hackney South and Shoreditch Lab Meg Hillier
Hampstead and Kilburn Lab Claire-Louise Leyland
Harrow West Con Hannah David
Hastings and Rye Con Amber Rudd
Heywood and Middleton Lab Liz McInnes
Hornchurch and Upminster Con Julia Dockerill
Hornsey and Wood Green Lab Catherine West
Houghton and Sunderland South Lab Bridget Phillipson
Hove Con Kristy Adams
Islington South and Finsbury Lab Emily Thornberry
Kensington Con Victoria Borwick
Kingston upon Hull North Lab Diana Johnson
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Lab Emma Hardy
Lanark and Hamilton East SNP Angela Crawley
Leeds West Lab Rachel Reeves
Leicester South Lab Liz Kendall
Leigh Lab Jo Platt
Lewes Lib Kelly-Marie Blundell
Lewisham East Lab Heidi Alexander
Lewisham West and Penge Lab Ellie Reeves
Lewisham, Deptford Lab Vicky Foxcroft
Liverpool, Riverside Lab Louise Ellman
Liverpool, Wavertree Lab Luciana Berger
Livingston SNP Hannah Bardell
Llanelli Plaid Mari Arthur
Loughborough Con Nicky Morgan
Louth and Horncastle Con Victoria Atkins
Maidenhead Con Theresa May
Maidstone and The Weald Con Helen Grant
Makerfield Lab Yvonne Fovargue
Manchester Central Lab Lucy Powell
Meriden Con Caroline Spelman
Mid Bedfordshire Con Nadine Dorries
Mid Derbyshire Con Pauline Latham
Mitcham and Morden Lab Siobhain McDonagh
Morley and Outwood Con Andrea Jenkyns
Neath Lab Christina Rees
Newcastle upon Tyne Central Lab Chi Onwurah
Newcastle upon Tyne North Lab Catherine McKinnell
Newport East Lab Jessica Morden
Newport West Con Angela Rhys Jones
Newton Abbot Con Anne-Marie Morris
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Lab Yvette Cooper
North Ayrshire and Arran SNP Patricia Blackford
North Down Ind Sylvia Hermon
North Tyneside Lab Mary Glindon
North West Durham Lab Laura Pidcock
Norwich North Con Chloe Smith
Nottingham South Lab Lilian Greenwood
Ochil and South Perthshire SNP Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh
Oldham East and Saddleworth Lab Debbie Abrahams
Oxford East Lab Annaliese Dodds
Oxford West and Abingdon Con Nicola Blackwood
Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP Mhairi Black
Penistone and Stocksbridge Con Nicola Wilson
Portsmouth North Con Penny Mordant
Portsmouth South Con Flick Drummond
Putney Con Justine Greening
Redcar Lab Anna Turley
Redditch Con Rachel Maclean
Rochester and Strood Con Kelly Tolhurst
Romsey and Southampton North Con Caroline Nokes
Rotherham Lab Sarah Champion
Rutherglen and Hamilton West SNP Margaret Farrier
Saffron Walden Con Kemi Adegoke
Salford and Eccles Lab Rebecca Long-Bailey
Scunthorpe Con Holly Mumby-Scott
Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough Lab Gill Furniss
Sleaford and North Hykeham Con Caroline Johnson
South Cambridgeshire Con Heidi Allen
South Derbyshire Con Heather Wheeler
South Down SDLP Margaret Ritchie
South East Cambridgeshire Con Lucy Frazer
South East Cornwall Con Sheryll Murray
South Northamptonshire Con Andrea Leadsom
South Ribble Con Seema Kennedy
South Shields Lab Emma Lewell-Buck
South West Norfolk Con Liz Truss
St Albans Con Anne Main
St Helens South and Whiston Lab Marie Rimmer
Staffordshire Moorlands Con Karen Bradley
Stockport Lab Ann Coffey
Stourbridge Con Margaret James
Stretford and Urmston Lab Kate Green
Suffolk Coastal Con Therese Coffey
Sunderland Central Lab Julie Elliott
Swansea East Lab Carolyn Harris
Tatton Con Esther McVey
Taunton Deane Con Rebecca Pow
Telford Con Lucy Allan
Thornbury and Yate Lib Clare Young
Thurrock Con Jackie Doyle-Price
Totnes Con Sarah Wollaston
Truro and Falmouth Con Sarah Newton
Vauxhall Lab Kate Hoey
Wallasey Lab Angela Eagle
Walthamstow Lab Stella Creasy
Warrington North Lab Helen Jones
Washington and Sunderland West Lab Sharon Hodgson
Wealden Con Nusrat Ghani
West Ham Lab Lyn Brown
West Lancashire Lab Rosie Cooper
West Worcestershire Con Harriet Baldwin
Westminster North Con Lindsay Hall
Wigan Lab Lisa Nandy
Wirral South Lab Alison McGovern
Witham Con Priti Patel
Wolverhampton North East Con Sarah Macken
York Central Lab Rachel Maskell



Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


Iain Has a Go at Tory Voter Who Voted for Corbyn

A caller gets more than he bargained for!

Listen now

General Election Predictions

The 85 Seats That Will Change Hands on June 8th ... (Probably)

13 May 2017 at 22:25

I’ve been tinkering with my seat by seat predictions today, mainly in the light of the fact that UKIP aren’t standing in 243 seats including one or two key marginals. It hasn’t changed my predictions too much though. The main change is that I think it may mean Norman Lamb might lose North Norfolk. His majority was just over 4,000 last time and the UKIP vote was over 8,000. James Wild, the Tory candidate only needs to bag half of those, and he wins. However, Norman’s personal vote is not to be underestimated, as I know only too well! Another casualty of UKIP not standing is likely to be Labour’s Jonathan Reynolds in Stalybridge & Hyde. So my revised totals are…

Con 392, Lab 163, LibDem 16, Green 2, SNP 53, Plaid 5, DUP 8, SF, 5, UUP 1, SDLP 3, Ind 2

I am predicting the Conservatives will gain 68 seats, 61 of which will come at the expense of Labour and 4 from the LibDems, as well as 3 from the SNP and 1 from UKIP.

Labour will gain a solitary seat, Brighton Kemptown from the Conservatives.

The LibDems will lose four seats to the Tories but take 6 from them, as well as 4 from Labour.

Here’s the complete list…

Conservative Gains from Labour

Alyn & Deesside Mark Tami 3343
Barrow in Furness John Woodcock 795
Batley & Spen Tracey Brabin 16537
Birmingham Edgbaston Gisela Stuart 2706
Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey 5129
Birmingham Northfield Richard Burden 2509
Bishop Auckland Helen Goodman 5218
Blackpool South Gordon Marsden 2585
Bolton North East David Crausby 4377
Bristol East Kerry McCarthy 3980
Brentford & Isleworth Ruth Cadbury 465
Bridgend Madeleine Moon 1927
Bristol South Karin Smith 7128
Cardiff South & Penarth Stephen Doughty 7453
Cardiff West Kevin Brennan 6789
Chorley Lindsay Hoyle 4530
City of Chester Chris Matheson 93
Clwyd South Susan Elan-Jones 2402
Coventry North West Geoffrey Robinson 6288
Coventry South Jim Cunningham 3188
Dagenham & Rainham Jon Cruddas 4980
Darlington Jenny Chapman 3158
Delyn David Hanson 2930
Dewsbury Paula Sherriff 1526
Dudley North Ian Austin 4181
Ealing Central & Acton Rupa Huq 274
Eltham Clive Efford 2693
Enfield North Joan Ryan 1086
Gedling Vernon Coaker 2986
Great Grimsby Melanie Onn 4540
Halifax Holly Lynch 428
Hampstead & Kilburn Tulip Siddiq 1138
Harrow West Gareth Thomas 3143
Hartlepool Iain Wright 3024
Hove Peter Kyle 1236
Hyndburn Graham Jones 4400
Ilford North West Streeting 589
Lancaster & Fleetwood Cat Smith 1265
Luton South Gavin Shuker 5711
Mansfield Alan Meale 5315
Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland Tom Blenkinsop 2268
Newcastle under Lyme Paul Farrelly 650
Newport West Paul Flynn 3544
North East Derbyshire Natascha Engel 1883
Penistone & Stockbridge Angela Smith 6723
Scunthorpe Nick Dakin 3134
Southampton Test Alan Whitehead 3810
Stalybridge & Hyde Jonathan Reynolds 6686
Stoke on Trent North Ruth Smeeth 4836
Stoke on Trent South Robert Flello 2539
Tooting Rosena Allin-Khan 6357
Wakefield Mary Creagh 2613
Walsall North David Winnick 1937
Walsall South Valerie Vaz 6007
Westminster North Karen Buck 2126
Workington Sue Hayman 4686
Worsley & Eccles South Barbara Keeley 5946
Wirral West Margaret Greenwood 417
Wolverhampton North East Emma Reynolds 5495
Wolverhampton South West Rob Marris 801
Wrexham Ian Lucas 1831

Conservative Gains from Liberal Democrats
Carshalton & Wallington Tom Brake 1510
North Norfolk Norman Lamb 4043
Richmond Park Sarah Olney 1872
Southport John Pugh 1322

Conservative Gains from SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Calum Kerr 328
Dumfries & Galloway Richard Arkless 6514
West Aberdeenshire & Kinkardine Stuart Donaldson 7033

Conservative Gain from UKIP
Clacton Douglas Carswell 3437

Green Gains from Labour
Bristol West Thangnam Debbonaire 5673

Labour Gains from Conservative
Brighton Kemptown Simon Kirby 690

Liberal Democrat Gains from Conservative
Bath Ben Howlett 3833
Cheltenham Alex Chalk 6516
Thornbury & Yate Luke Hall 1495
Kingston James Berry 2834
Lewes Maria Caulfield 1083
Twickenham Tania Mathias 2017

Liberal Democrat Gains from Labour
Burnley Julie Cooper 3244
Cambridge Daniel Zeichner 599
Bermondsey Neil Coyle 4489
Cardiff Central Jo Stevens 4981

Plaid Cymru Gains from Labour
Llanelli Nia Griffith 7095
Yns Mon Albert Owen 229

Sinn Fein Gain From UUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone Tom Elliot 530

SNP Gain from Labour
Edinburgh South Ian Murray 2637


1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


Iain talks to the stars of 'Handbagged'

Not easy interviewing Margaret Thatcher and the Queen. At the same time.

Listen now


ConHome Diary: The Electoral Commission Should Be Wound Up

13 May 2017 at 09:40

And so the CPS decided to take no further action against the 14 MPs the Electoral Commission fingered for allegedly filing inaccurate election expenses after the 2015 election. They’ve left Craig Mackinlay swinging in the wind, but I suspect he’ll be OK. I cannot imagine the CPS now making a decision on his case before polling day. If they do, it could be a ‘James Comey’ moment. When the election over some serious questions need to be asked about the conduct of the Electoral Commission. It is clear they have acted in a party-political manner. Both Labour and the LibDems filed their expenses in exactly the same way as the Conservatives did and yet no action was taken. They also only targeted Tory candidates who actually got elected. They did nothing about the candidates whose expenses were also supposedly inaccurate but failed to get elected.
Each time I have asked the Electoral Commission for an interview they have refused point blank. These people think they are accountable to no one.
I’ve said for a long time this organisation was out of control and not fit for purpose. I hope the whole bloody thing is abolished. Electoral matters used to come under the remit of the Home Office and it all worked perfectly well. There was little electoral fraud and the postal voting system wasn’t abused.
If Nick Timothy is reading this, I’d imagine he has a lot of sympathy with what I have said. Let me put this idea into his head… I hope the Electoral Commission (Abolition) Bill will be in Theresa May’s first Queen’s Speech. I suspect I will live in hope on that, but you never know.
UKIP pretend that they are only standing down candidates where the Tory MP or Tory candidate has an impeccable record on Brexit. It’s simply not true. In Norfolk they’re not fielding a candidate against Chloe Smith in Norwich North, who was a devout Remain supporter, if I remember correctly. They’re also not standing in Norwich South, which could enable a big electoral surprise to happen. Clive Lewis, the Labour candidate, who won the seat in 2015 and is seen as a possible successor to Jeremy Corbyn, could be in a bit of trouble. My old opponent in North Norfolk may also be experiencing a sensation of the squeaky bum variety. Norman Lamb has a majority of around 4,500. UKIP’s vote last time was more than 8,000 there and they aren’t standing a candidate. The recently selected Tory candidate there, James Wild, may well find all his Christmases have come at once.
All this means that my prediction of a Tory majority of 130 may well have to be revised upwards depending on how many UKIP candidates are standing in Labour/Tory or LibDem/Tory marginals. Nominations closed at 4pm yesterday, so at the time of writing, the numbers are not yet clear.
It is in many ways shameful that UKIP aren’t standing in every seat. They’re supposed to be a national political party. Just like this fraudulent Progressive Alliance (commonly known as the ‘Anyone But The Tories’ Alliance) they won’t be giving their supporters a chance to vote for them. The LibDems are standing down in several seats too, so there are only two parties now who can genuinely call themselves ‘national’ parties.

So, the CPS have decided not to charge anyone with regard to election expenses. Move along here, nothing to see? I doubt it very much. There will be consequences here for both the Electoral Commission and some CCHQ apparatchiks and procedures. I imagine MPs like Karl McCartney will see to that, assuming he is re-elected (which I predict he will be).
Michael Crick tweeted a very serious allegation this week. He wrote: “What shocks me is reporters collaborating with May press team by agreeing to reveal their questions to them in advance.” I responded by asking him to provide some evidence for that. He declined to do so. He can’t, because there is none. He’s impugned the character of people like Laura Kuennsberg, Faisal Islam and various print newspaper journalists. He should put up or withdraw. I know of no journalist who would ever consider giving details of their questions to politicians in advance. I have never been asked to do so, and nor would I ever do so. To suggest that others would is an absolute disgrace.

I do sometimes wonder about some people who run for political office. Last Friday I was ambling to Charing Cross Station and encountered a government minister on his bike, seemingly cycling around without a care in the world. OK, he’s in a safe seat, but at 7 O’Clock on a Friday evening you might have thought he’d be out canvassing along with the poor bloody infantry. And then I see the Tory candidate for Natasha Ashgar trumpeting on Twitter about her music tour. “Tonight Leicester, tomorrow Manchester…”. Call me old fashioned, but I’d have thought if you’d just been selected in a highly marginal seat, which the Conservatives expect to win, you’d clear your diary, head down to Newport (assuming she knows where it is) and put your shoulder to the campaigning wheel. Maybe it was different in “my day”.

  • I had a text from a friend of mine in Norwich South yesterday. “OMG Labour canvassing on my doorstep and I told them I wouldn’t be voting for Clive Lewis as he was a tosser. Poor lad could only reply: “You’re not the first to say that today.” And my friend isn’t even a Tory!
    Quote of the week from Nadhim Zahawi on my radio show: “Theresa May is not a Prime Minister for soundbites…”. He did say it is a very strong and stable way… without the hand of history on his shoulder.


1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


Video: Iain & Yasmin Alibhai Brown debate new media

Sunday AM with Andrew Marr

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: Final Totals - We're Heading for A Conservative Majority of 130ish

7 May 2017 at 16:59

Over the last three weeks I have been trying to predict the outcome of each of the 650 seats up for grabs at this election. Here is my final seat prediction…

Conservative 392 (62)
Labour 163 (-69)
Liberal Democrats 16 (
SNP 53 (-3)
Plaid Cymru 5 (2)
Green 2 (
DUP 8 (-)
UUP 1 (-1)
Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
SDLP 3 (-)
Independent 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

In some ways doing these predictions is a fools errand as I cannot possibly know all the local circumstances in each seat. However, I have tried to be as clever as I can by looking at local election results, polling data, other people’s predictions on sites like and UKPollingReport and anecdotal evidence which I have picked up. However, I have also made one or two assumptions.

The main assumption is that the UKIP vote is going to reduce dramatically. We don’t yet know how many seats UKIP is actually going to put up candidates in. The ITV Wales YouGov poll showed that 64% of the UKIP vote will transfer directly to the Conservatives, and only 2% to Labour. In many Labour held marginals it would only take 25-40% of the UKIP vote to go to the Conservative candidate for him/her to win. If there is no UKIP candidate in a Labour marginal, some very bizarre seats could end up going to the Conservatives – there may be one or two with five figures majorities which fall. I am also assuming a decline in the Labour vote more generally, partly due to an anti-Corbyn phenomenon in many areas, and also because the LibDems have become seen as the party of ‘Remain’.

Although I expect the LibDems to gain seats, I do not expect them to make a major breakthrough. In fact, I’d say it’s almost impossible for them to come back to anything like their previus strength at this election. Matthew Goodwin has written about a ‘blue wall’ which they have to overcome in the South West, one of their previous strongholds. From my analysis I don’t expect them to gain a single seat in Devon, Cornwall, Somerset or Wiltshire. Their 2015 result was so catastrophic, and together with the fact that their decline in local government has yet to be reversed in any meaningful way, it would be a miracle if they managed to win more than 20-25 seats.

In Scotland the SNP will continue to reign supreme and although they will lose a few seats to the Conservatives, and one (possibly two) to the LibDems, I expect them to take Labour’s remaining seat off them to wipe out Labour altogether. Other pundits are predicting the Conservatives could take 8-10 seats. By my reckoning this is unlikely to happen. I predict four.

In Wales, although the local election results weren’t as convincing for the Conservatives as they might have liked, I predict they wil end up with 19 seats, with Labour on 14 and Plaid on 5.

UKIP certainly won’t be represented in the next parliament, but the Greens could win a second seat in Bristol West. I realise most people will think I’ve lost my senses by predicting this, but I think it’s entirely possible.

When I did this exercise last time i came up with a Conservative seat prediction of 323 – only 8 out from what it turned out to be. However, I didn’t publish that because I felt it overestimated the Tory total. So I went back through all 650 seats and cut 33 seats to leave a total of 290. I should have trusted my first instincts. This time I haven’t gone through them again, so what you have here is genuinely my first instincts. During the campaign I may go back to some seats and change the prediction if new information comes to light. In most seats this may be because of the fact that UKIP aren’t standing.

Obviously all this could be thrown into disarray by a very low turnout. I have assumed a turnout of around 63-65%. In terms of vote share I’d have thought it would be something like this:

Con 44%
Lab 28%
Lib 14%

Feel free to let me know if you think I have got anything dramatically wrong or you have some new information for me. Either leave a comment or email me via the Contact box at the top of the page.

Here are links to the regional breakdowns, and individual seat predictions.

Bristol & Surrounds
County Durham
East Sussex
Herefordshire & Worcestershire
London Central
London East
London North East
London North West
London South
London South East
London South West
London West
Northern Ireland
Scotland: Borders & Ayrshire
Scotland: Central
Scotland: Edinburgh
Scotland: Fife
Scotland: Glasgow
Scotland: Glasgow Surrounds
Scotland: North East
Scotland: Highlands & Islands
Tyne & Wear
Wales – Clwyd
Wales – Dyfed
Wales – Gwent
Wales – Gwynned & Powys
Wales – Mid Glamorgan
Wales – South Glamorgan
Wales – West Glamorgan
West Midlands
West Sussex
Yorkshire: East & Humberside
Yorkshire: North
Yorkshire South
Yorkshire: West



Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


LBC Book Club: Best of 2012 (Part 1)

Part 1 of 2. With Jack Straw, Lady Pamela Hicks, Peter Hennessy and President Mary Robinson.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 69. Tyne & Wear

7 May 2017 at 15:11


Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Lab 12
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Lab 12

1. *Blaydon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7159 (15.9%)
Labour: 22297 (49.6%)
Lib Dem: 13180 (29.3%)
BNP: 2277 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 9117 (20.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dave Anderson 22,090 49.2 -0.5
UKIP Mark Bell 7,863 17.5 +17.5
Conservative Alison Griffiths 7,838 17.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Wallace 5,497 12.2 -17.1
Green Paul McNally5 1,648 3.7 +3.7
Majority 14,227 31.7 +11.4
Turnout 44,936 66.4 +0.2

Leave Vote: 56.1%

Sitting MP: David Anderson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Gateshead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5716 (14.9%)
Labour: 20712 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 8163 (21.3%)
BNP: 1787 (4.7%)
Green: 379 (1%)
UKIP: 1103 (2.9%)
Christian: 131 (0.3%)
TUSC: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12549 (32.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Mearns 21,549 56.8 +2.6
UKIP John Tennant 6,765 17.8 +14.9
Conservative Thomas Smith 5,502 14.5 −0.4
Liberal Democrat Frank Hindle 2,585 6.8 −14.5
Green Andy Redfern5 1,548 4.1 +3.1
Majority 14,784 39.0 +6.2
Turnout 40,451 59.4 +1.9

Leave Vote: 56.2%

Sitting MP: Ian Mearns (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Houghton & Sunderland South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8147 (21.4%)
Labour: 19137 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 5292 (13.9%)
BNP: 1961 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1022 (2.7%)
Independent: 2462 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 10990 (28.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Bridget Phillipson 21,218 55.1 +4.8
UKIP Richard Elvin 8,280 21.5 +18.8
Conservative Stewart Hay7 7,105 18.5 -2.9
Green Alan Robinson 1,095 2.8 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Jim Murray8 791 2.1 -11.8
Majority 12,938 33.6
Turnout 38,489 56.3

Leave Vote: 64.5%

Sitting MP: Bridget Phillipson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Jarrow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8002 (20.6%)
Labour: 20910 (53.9%)
Lib Dem: 7163 (18.5%)
BNP: 2709 (7%)
MAJORITY: 12908 (33.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Hepburn 21,464 55.7 +1.7
UKIP Steve Harrison5 7,583 19.7 +19.7
Conservative Nick Mason 6,584 17.1 -3.6
Green David Herbert6 1,310 3.4 +3.4
Liberal Democrat Stan Collins7 1,238 3.2 -15.3
TUSC Norman Hall8 385 1.0 +1.0
Majority 13,881 36.0 +2.7
Turnout 38,564 60.4 +0.1

Leave Vote: 61.8%

Sitting MP: Stephen Hepburn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Newcastle upon Tyne Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6611 (19.4%)
Labour: 15694 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 8228 (24.1%)
BNP: 2302 (6.7%)
Green: 568 (1.7%)
UKIP: 754 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7466 (21.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chi Onwurah 19,301 55.0 +9.1
Conservative Simon Kitchen8 6,628 18.9 -0.5
UKIP Daniel Thompson9 5,214 14.9 +12.7
Liberal Democrat Nick Cott 2,218 6.3 -17.8
Green Alex Johnson10 1,724 4.9 +3.3
Majority 12,673 36.1
Turnout 35,085 57.5

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Chi Onwurah (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Newcastle upon Tyne East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6068 (16%)
Labour: 17043 (45%)
Lib Dem: 12590 (33.3%)
BNP: 1342 (3.5%)
Green: 620 (1.6%)
Others: 177 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4453 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Brown 19,378 49.4 +4.4
Conservative Duncan Crute6 6,884 17.6 +1.5
UKIP David Robinson-Young7 4,910 12.5 +12.5
Liberal Democrat Wendy Taylor 4,332 11.0 -22.2
Green Andrew Gray8 3,426 8.7 +7.1
TUSC Paul Phillips 9 170 0.4 +0.4
Communist Mollie Stevenson10 122 0.3 -0.2
Majority 12,494 31.9
Turnout 39,222 52.9 −5.8

Leave Vote: 41.1%

Sitting MP: Nick Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Newcastle upon Tyne North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7966 (18.1%)
Labour: 17950 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 14536 (33.1%)
BNP: 1890 (4.3%)
Green: 319 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1285 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3414 (7.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Catherine McKinnell 20,689 46.1 +5.2
Conservative Stephen Bates5 10,536 23.5 +5.3
UKIP Timothy Marron 7,447 16.6 +13.7
Liberal Democrat Anita Lower6 4,366 9.7 -23.4
Green Alison Whalley7 1,515 3.4 +2.6
North East Party Violet Rook8 338 0.7 +0.8
Majority 10,153 22.6 +15.2
Turnout 44,891 66.7 +1.2

Leave Vote: 56.8%

Sitting MP: Catherine McKinnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. North Tyneside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8514 (18.3%)
Labour: 23505 (50.7%)
Lib Dem: 10621 (22.9%)
BNP: 1860 (4%)
UKIP: 1306 (2.8%)
Others: 599 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12884 (27.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Mary Glindon 26,191 55.9 +5.3
Conservative Martin McGann 8,997 19.2 +0.9
UKIP Scott Hartley5 7,618 16.3 +13.5
Liberal Democrat John Appleby 2,075 4.4 -18.5
Green Martin Collins 1,442 3.1 +3.1
TUSC Tim Wall 304 0.6 +0.6
National Front Bob Batten 191 0.4 -0.9
Majority 17,194 36.7 +8.9
Turnout 46,818 59.0 -0.7

Vote Leave: 59.5%

Sitting MP: Mary Glindon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. South Shields

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7886 (21.6%)
Labour: 18995 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5189 (14.2%)
BNP: 2382 (6.5%)
Green: 762 (2.1%)
Independent: 729 (2%)
Others: 575 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 11109 (30.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emma Lewell-Buck 18,589 51.3 −0.8
UKIP Norman Dennis 7,975 22.0 N/A
Conservative Robert Oliver 6,021 16.6 −5.0
Green Shirley Ford 1,614 4.5 +2.4
Independent Lisa Nightingale 1,427 3.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gitanjali (Gita) Gordon 639 1.8 −12.4
Majority 10,614 29.3 −1.1
Turnout 36,265 57.8 +0.1

Leave Result: 62.6%

Sitting MP: Emma Lewel-Buck
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Sunderland Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12770 (30.1%)
Labour: 19495 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 7191 (16.9%)
BNP: 1913 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1094 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 6725 (15.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Julie Elliott 20,959 50.2 +4.3
Conservative Jeff Townsend 9,780 23.4 −6.7
UKIP Bryan Foster5 7,997 19.1 +16.5
Green Rachel Featherstone 1,706 4.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Adrian Page 1,105 2.6 −14.3
Independent Joseph Young 215 0.5 N/A
Majority 11,179 26.8
Turnout 41,762 57.0 +0.0

Leave Vote: 55.4%

Sitting MP: Julie Elliott
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Tynemouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18121 (34.4%)
Labour: 23860 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 7845 (14.9%)
BNP: 1404 (2.7%)
Green: 538 (1%)
UKIP: 900 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5739 (10.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Campbell 25,791 48.2 +2.9
Conservative Glenn Hall6 17,551 32.8 -1.6
UKIP Gary Legg7 6,541 12.2 +10.5
Green Julia Erskine8 2,017 3.8 +2.8
Liberal Democrat John Paton-Day9 1,595 3.0 -11.9
Majority 8,240 15.4 +4.5
Turnout 53,495 69 -0.6

Leave Vote: 47.6%

Sitting MP: Alan Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Washington & Sunderland West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8157 (21.8%)
Labour: 19615 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 6382 (17.1%)
BNP: 1913 (5.1%)
UKIP: 1267 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 11458 (30.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sharon Hodgson 20,478 55.0 +2.5
UKIP Aileen Casey 7,321 19.6 +16.3
Conservative Bob Dhillon 7,033 18.9 −3.0
Green Anthony Murphy6 1,091 2.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Dominic Haney 993 2.7 −14.4
TUSC Gary Duncan 341 0.9 N/A
Majority 13,157 35.3
Turnout 37,257 54.6

Leave Result: 64.5%
Sitting MP: Sharon Hodgson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE



Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


Newsnight Panel with Paul Mason & Polly Mackenzie

With Emily Maitlis

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 68. Staffordshire

7 May 2017 at 14:21


Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 11, Lab 1

1. Burton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22188 (44.5%)
Labour: 15884 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 7891 (15.8%)
BNP: 2409 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1451 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 6304 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Griffiths 24,736 50.1 +5.6
Labour Jon Wheale 6 13,484 27.3 -4.5
UKIP Mike Green 6 8,658 17.5 +14.6
Liberal Democrat David MacDonald 7 1,232 2.5 -13.3
Green Samantha Patrone 8 1,224 2.5 +2.5
Majority 11,252 22.8 +10.1
Turnout 49,334 65.5 -1.0

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Andrew Griffiths (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Cannock Chase

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18271 (40.1%)
Labour: 15076 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 7732 (17%)
BNP: 2168 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1580 (3.5%)
Independent: 380 (0.8%)
Others: 352 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3195 (7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amanda Milling 7 20,811 44.2 Increase 4.1
Labour Janos Toth 7 15,888 33.7 Increase 0.6
UKIP Grahame Wiggin 8 8,224 17.5 Increase 14.0
Liberal Democrat Ian Jackson 9 1,270 2.7 Decrease 14.3
Green Paul Woodhead 10 906 1.9 Increase 1.9
Majority 4,923 10.5 Increase 3.5
Turnout 47,099 63.2 Increase 2.1

Leave Vote: 68.9%

Sitting MP: Amanda Milling (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Lichfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28048 (54.4%)
Labour: 10230 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 10365 (20.1%)
UKIP: 2920 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 17683 (34.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Fabricant 28,389 55.2 +0.8
Labour Chris Worsey 10,200 19.8 0.0
UKIP John Rackham 8,082 15.7 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Paul Ray 2,700 5.6 -14.9
Green Robert Pass 1,976 3.8 +3.8
Class War Andy Bennetts 120 0.2 +0.2
Majority 18,189 35.3 +2.7
Turnout 51,467 69.311 -1.7

Leave Vote: 57,5%

Sitting MP: Michael Fabricant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Newcastle Under Lyme

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14841 (34.4%)
Labour: 16393 (38%)
Lib Dem: 8466 (19.6%)
UKIP: 3491 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 1552 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Farrelly 16,520 38.4 +0.5
Conservative Tony Cox 15,870 36.9 +2.5
UKIP Phil Wood 7,252 16.9 +8.8
Liberal Democrat Ian Wilkes 1,826 4.2 -15.4
Green Sam Gibbons 1,246 2.9 +2.9
Independent David E. Nixon 283 0.7 +0.7
Majority 650 1.5
Turnout 42,997 62.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 61.6%

Sitting MP: Paul Farrelly (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat had a Labour majority of more than 17,000 in 1997. Given it’s only 650 now, it would be a shock if the Tories don’t win it this time.

5. South Staffordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26834 (53.2%)
Labour: 10244 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8427 (16.7%)
BNP: 1928 (3.8%)
UKIP: 2753 (5.5%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16590 (32.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gavin Williamson 29,478 59.4 +6.2
Labour Kevin McElduff 9,107 18.4 -1.9
UKIP Lyndon Jones7 8,267 16.7 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Robert Woodthorpe Browne 1,448 2.9 -13.8
Green Claire McIlvenna8 1,298 2.6 +2.6
Majority 20,371 41.1
Turnout 49,598 58.9

Leave Vote: 65.5%

Sitting MP: Gavin Williamson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Stafford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22047 (43.9%)
Labour: 16587 (33%)
Lib Dem: 8211 (16.3%)
BNP: 1103 (2.2%)
Green: 564 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1727 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 5460 (10.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Lefroy 23,606 48.4 +4.5
Labour Kate Godfrey 14,429 29.6 −3.4
UKIP Edward Whitfield 6,293 12.9 +9.5
National Health Action Karen Howell 1,701 3.5 N/A
Green Mike Shone 1,390 2.9 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Keith Miller 1,348 2.8 -13.6
Majority 9,177 18.8
Turnout 48,767 71

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Lefroy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Staffordshire Moorlands

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19793 (45.2%)
Labour: 13104 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7338 (16.7%)
UKIP: 3580 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 6689 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karen Bradley 21,770 51.1 +5.9
Labour Trudie McGuinness9 11,596 27.2 -2.7
UKIP George Langley-Poole 6,236 14.6 +6.5
Liberal Democrat John Redfern10 1,759 4.1 -12.6
Green Brian Smith11 1,226 2.9 +2.9
Majority 10,174 23.9 +9.2
Turnout 42,587

Leave Vote: 64.7%

Sitting MP: Karen Bradley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Stoke on Trent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6833 (21%)
Labour: 12605 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7039 (21.7%)
BNP: 2502 (7.7%)
UKIP: 1402 (4.3%)
TUSC: 133 (0.4%)
Independent: 959 (3%)
Others: 997 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 5566 (17.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Tristram Hunt 12,220 39.3 Increase 0.5
UKIP Mick Harold 7,041 22.7 Increase 18.3
Conservative Liam Marshall-Ascough 7,008 22.5 Increase 1.5
Independent Mark Breeze 2,120 6.8 Increase 6.8
Liberal Democrat Zulfiqar Ali13 1,296 4.2 Decrease 17.5
Green Jan Zablocki14 1,123 3.6 Increase 3.6
CISTA Ali Majid 244 0.8 Increase 0.8
The Ubuntu Party Paul Toussaint 32 0.1 Increase 0.1
Majority 5,179 16.7
Turnout 31,084 49.9

Labour Gareth Snell 7,853 37.1 Decrease 2.2
UKIP Paul Nuttall 5,233 24.7 Increase 2.1
Conservative Jack Brereton 5,154 24.3 Increase 1.8
Liberal Democrat Zulfiqar Ali 2,083 9.8 Increase 5.7
Green Adam Colclough 294 1.4 Decrease 2.2
Independent Barbara Fielding 137 0.6 N/A
Monster Raving Loony The Incredible Flying Brick 127 0.6 N/A
BNP David Furness 124 0.6 N/A
Christian Peoples Godfrey Davies 109 0.5 N/A
Independent Mohammad Akram 56 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,620 12.4 Decrease 4.3
Turnout 21,200 38.2 Decrease 11.7

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Gareth Snell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Will be one to watch, given the narrow margin of the by-election victory, but it all depends how the UKIP cookie crumbles.

9. Stoke on Trent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9580 (23.8%)
Labour: 17815 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 7120 (17.7%)
BNP: 3196 (8%)
UKIP: 2485 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 8235 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ruth Smeeth 15,429 39.9 Decrease 4.4
Conservative Benedict Adams 10,593 27.4 Increase 3.6
UKIP Geoff Locke 9,542 24.7 Increase 18.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Roberts 1,137 2.9 Decrease 14.8
Green Sean Adam 1,091 2.8 Increase 2.8
Independent John Millward 508 1.3 Increase 1.3
Independent Craig Pond 56 354 0.9 Increase 0.9
Majority 4,836 12.5 Decrease 8.0
Turnout 38,654 53.2 Decrease 2.6

Leave Vote: 72.1%

Sitting MP: Ruth Smeeth (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Ruth Smeeth has had a high profile nationally, but this is a seat which has been gradually going Tory for 20 years. A Tory gain would not be a surprise. The Leave vote is also a factor.

10. Stoke on Trent South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11316 (28.4%)
Labour: 15446 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 6323 (15.9%)
BNP: 3762 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.4%)
Independent: 434 (1.1%)
Others: 1208 (3%)
MAJORITY: 4130 (10.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Robert Flello 15,319 39.2 Increase 0.4
Conservative Joe Rich 12,780 32.7 Increase 4.3
UKIP Tariq Mahmood 8,298 21.2 Increase 17.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Andras 1,309 3.3 Decrease 12.6
Green Luke Bellamy 1,029 2.6 N/A
TUSC Matthew Wright 372 1.0 N/A
Majority 2,539 6.5 Decrease 3.9
Turnout 39,107 57.3 Decrease 1.5

Leave Vote: 71.1%

Sitting MP: Robert Flello (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Similar to Stoke on Trent North. Flello will do well to hold this seat.

11. Stone

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23890 (50.6%)
Labour: 9770 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 10598 (22.4%)
Green: 490 (1%)
UKIP: 2481 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 13292 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bill Cash 25,733 54.7 +4.1
Labour Sam Hale 9,483 20.2 -0.5
UKIP Andrew Illsley7 7,620 16.2 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Martin Lewis 2,473 5.3 -17.1
Green Wenslie Naylon 1,191 2.5 +1.5
Independent John Coutouvidis 531 1.1 +1.1
Majority 16,250 34.6
Turnout 47,031 70.1

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Sir Bill Cash (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Tamworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21238 (45.8%)
Labour: 15148 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7516 (16.2%)
UKIP: 2253 (4.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6090 (13.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Pincher10 23,606 50.0 +4.3
Labour Carol Dean10 12,304 26.1 −6.6
UKIP Janet Higgins10 8,727 18.5 +13.6
Liberal Democrat Jennifer Pinkett10 1,427 3.0 −13.2
Green Nicola Holmes10 1,110 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,302 24.0 +10.9
Turnout 47,174 65.6 +1.8

Sitting MP: Chris Pincher (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To all see previous predictions. click HERE



Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Peter Sissons

Peter Sissons discusses his career in journalism and broadcasting.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 67. London North West

7 May 2017 at 13:30


Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 3

Brent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5067 (11.2%)
Labour: 18681 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%)
Green: 668 (1.5%)
Respect: 230 (0.5%)
Christian: 488 (1.1%)
Independent: 163 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1345 (3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dawn Butler 29,216 62.1 +20.9
Conservative Alan Mendoza7 9,567 20.3 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Lauren Keith8 3,937 8.4 -35.8
Green Shahrar Ali9 1,912 4.1 +2.6
UKIP Stephen Priestley 1,850 3.9 N/A
TUSC John Boyle 235 0.5 N/A
Communities United Kamran Malik 170 0.4 N/A
Independent Noel Coonan 145 0.3 N/A
Majority 19,649 41.8
Turnout 47,032 61.1 -0.1

Leave Vote: 42.9%

Sitting MP: Dawn Butler (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Brent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16486 (31.5%)
Labour: 24514 (46.9%)
Lib Dem: 8879 (17%)
Green: 725 (1.4%)
UKIP: 380 (0.7%)
English Dem: 247 (0.5%)
Independent: 734 (1.4%)
Others: 333 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8028 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Barry Gardiner 28,351 54.3 +7.4
Conservative Luke Parker 17,517 33.5 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Paul Lorber 2,607 5.0 −12.0
UKIP Alan Craig 2,024 3.9 +3.1
Green Scott Bartle 1,539 2.9 +1.6
Independent Elcena Jeffers 197 0.4 +0.4
Majority 10,834 20.7 5.3
Turnout 52,235 63.5 +1.2

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Barry Gardiner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Chipping Barnet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24700 (48.8%)
Labour: 12773 (25.2%)
Lib Dem: 10202 (20.2%)
Green: 1021 (2%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.8%)
Independent: 470 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 11927 (23.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Theresa Villiers 25,759 48.6 –0.2
Labour Amy Trevethan 18,103 34.1 +8.9
UKIP Victor Kaye 4,151 7.8 +5.0
Green Audrey Poppy 2,501 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Marisha Ray 10 2,381 4.5 –15.7
Independent Mehdi Akhavan 118 0.2 +0.2
Majority 7,656 14.4 –9.2
Turnout 53,013 68.1 +3.0

Leave Vote: 41.1%

Sitting MP: Theresa Villiers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Finchley & Golders Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21688 (46%)
Labour: 15879 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 8036 (17%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 817 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5809 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mike Freer9 25,835 50.9 +4.9
Labour Sarah Sackman9 20,173 39.7 +6.1
UKIP Richard King10 1,732 3.4 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Davies11 1,662 3.3 −13.8
Green Adele Ward12 1,357 2.7 +1.1
Majority 5,662 11.2 −1.1
Turnout 50,759 70.0 +8.9

Leave Vote: 31.1%

Sitting MP: Mike Freer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Tulip Siddiq 23,977 44.4 +11.6
Conservative Simon Marcus 22,839 42.3 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Maajid Nawaz 3,039 5.6 −25.6
Green Rebecca Johnson 2,387 4.4 +3.0
UKIP Magnus Nielsen 1,532 2.8 +2.1
Independent The Eurovisionary Carroll * 113 0.2 N/A
U Party Robin Ellison 77 0.1 N/A
Majority 1,138 2.1 +2.0
Turnout 53,964 67.3 +1.0

Leave Vote: 23.7%

Sitting MP: Tulip Siddiq (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Very difficult to predict, even though if it wasn’t in central London, I’d be predicting an automatic Conservative gain. A very small Leave vote here, this result may well depend on whether people vote on Brexit as a single issue. Tulip Siddiq has been a vocal Remain supporter and her best bet is to concentrate on that single issue. If the Tory vote holds up and any Labour votes seep to the LibDems, then Ms Siddiq is toast. I suspect that might well happen.

Harrow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21435 (44.7%)
Labour: 18032 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 6850 (14.3%)
Green: 793 (1.7%)
UKIP: 896 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3403 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Blackman 24,668 50.3 +5.7
Labour Uma Kumaran 19,911 40.6 +3.1
UKIP Aidan Powlesland 2,333 4.8 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Ross Barlow 1,037 2.1 -12.2
Green Emma Wallace 846 1.7 +0.1
TUSC Nana Asante 205 0.4 +0.4
Majority 4,757 9.7 +2.6
Turnout 49,000 69.0 +1.9

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Bob Blackman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Harrow West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16968 (36.8%)
Labour: 20111 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 7458 (16.2%)
Green: 625 (1.4%)
UKIP: 954 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3143 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Gareth Thomas 21,885 47.0 +3.3
Conservative Hannah David 19,677 42.2 +5.4
UKIP Ali Bhatti 2,047 4.3 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Noyce 1,567 3.3 −12.9
Green Rowan Langley 1,310 2.8 +1.4
Independent Kailash Trivedi 117 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,208 4.7 −2.1
Turnout 46,603 66.9 −0.7

Leave Vote: 41.9%

Sitting MP: Gareth Thomas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Labour vote has been declining here, partly for demographic reasons. The Tories had hoped to take this seat last time, but they are odds on to do so now.


2010 Result:
Conservative: 19635 (42.3%)
Labour: 19529 (42.1%)
Lib Dem: 5734 (12.4%)
Green: 518 (1.1%)
UKIP: 958 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 106 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matthew Offord 24,328 49.0 +6.7
Labour Andrew Dismore 20,604 41.5 −0.6
UKIP Raymond Shamash7 2,595 5.2 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Alasdair Hill 1,088 2.2 −10.2
Green Ben Samuel 1,015 2.0 +0.9
Majority 3,724 7.5 +7.3
Turnout 49,630 65.9 +7.1

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Matthew Offord
Prediction: Conservative hold

One of those seats that defies predictions and remains Conservative. It will do so again.

Hornsey & Wood Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9174 (16.7%)
Labour: 18720 (34%)
Lib Dem: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.3%)
Independent: 201 (0.4%)
Others: 91 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6875 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Catherine West10 29,417 50.9 +16.9
Liberal Democrat Lynne Featherstone 18,359 31.8 -14.7
Conservative Suhail Rahuja 5,347 9.3 -7.4
Green Gordon Peters 3,146 5.4 +3.2
UKIP Clive Morrison11 1,271 2.2 n/a
Christian Peoples Helen Spiby-Vann 118 0.2 n/a
Workers Revolutionary Frank Sweeney 82 0.1 n/a
Hoi Polloi Geoff Moseley 45 0.1 n/a
Majority 11,058 19.1
Turnout 57,785 72.9 +4.0

Leave Vote: 18.2%

Sitting MP: Catherine West (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If Lynne Featherstone had been standing again here I’d have predicted she would give Catherine West a run for her money, but an 11k majority is surely too much for a LibDem candidate to overturn. Having said that, this has one of the highest Remain votes in the country and if there is enough anti-Corbyn feeling here, you never know.

Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28866 (57.5%)
Labour: 9806 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 8345 (16.6%)
Green: 740 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1351 (2.7%)
Christian: 198 (0.4%)
Others: 899 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 19060 (38%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Hurd 30,521 59.6 +2.1
Labour Michael Borio 10,297 20.1 +0.6
UKIP Gerard Barry12 5,598 10.9 +8.2
Liberal Democrat Josh Dixon 2,537 5.0 -11.7
Green Karen Pillai13 1,801 3.5 +2.0
TUSC Wally Kennedy 302 0.6 +0.6
NLP Sockalingam Yogalingam14 166 0.3 +0.3
Majority 20,224 39.5 +1.5
Turnout 51,222 70.0 -0.8

Leave Vote: 49.5%

Sitting MP: Nick Hurd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE



Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.


Best of Iain's Mental Health Programmes

Half hour compilation of some of the most memorable moments of Iain's emotional discussions on mental health issues.

Listen now