Radio

Join Shelagh Fogarty Tonight From 9.55 for the LBC Election Night Coverage

7 May 2015 at 15:32

I hope you will join me and Shelagh Fogarty from 9.55pm until 5am for LBC’s election night coverage. We’re intending to have some fun and give the BBC a run for their money. We have reporters at 100 counts, we’ll get the results on air as soon as they are announced and we’ll have some brilliant pundits analysing what will happen.

Throughout the night we’re joined by Tim Montgomerie, Times columnist and former editor of ConservativeHome. as well as Damian McBride, former spin doctor to Gordon Brown. Miranda Green, star of This Week and former LibDem spindoctor and Alexandra Swann, an expert on UKIP will also be with us. Rory Bremner will be providing some satire and Lord Ashcroft will be joining us at midnight.

There will be a few surprises too along the way.

You can listen to LBC on DAB thoughout the country. You can stream the programme via www.lbc.co.uk, use Tunein Radio or the LBC App, now also available on Android. or you can listen via your TV on Freeview Channel 732 or Sky Channel 0112. Or in London on 97.3 FM.

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Mosad Tells Iain His Views on Gay Marriage & Gets More than He Bargained For

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LISTEN: Gender Segregation Can Never, Ever Be Justified And Here's Why

7 May 2015 at 09:19

Earlier this week I did a phonein on gender segregation after 7 Labour candidates spoke at a meeting in Birmingham where the women had to sit separate from the men. Among those candidates were Jack Dromey, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood and Liam Byrne. Now it’s one thing for this to happen in a mosque, but for politicians to go along with it is an outrage. You wouldn’t segregate by colour or sexuality, so why on earth would anyone in 21st century Britain think it was OK for it to happen in this context? I did a phone-in on this on my LBC show, and started off by interviewing two feminists. I was flabberghasted by their responses. How on earth can a feminist approve of this? The calls from the public were also fascinating. I had several female muslim callers who tried to justify it, but I am afraid there is nothing that anyone could say that would change my mind on this. I’d have refused to address a meeting that refused to treat men and women equally. That makes me more of a feminist than those who try to justify it.

Listen to the show HERE (40 mins)

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to singer Alfie Boe

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UK Politics

WATCH: The LBC Business & Economy Debate

5 May 2015 at 21:29

Tonight I hosted an hour long Business & Economy debate on LBC with Vince Cable, Chuka Umunna, Matt Hancock and Neil Hamilton. It was quite sparky at times, and I reckon was one of the best debates of the election campaign. The ‘Ask me Anything’ sections, where the candidates quizzed each other, were particularly good. At least, I thought so!

Let me know what you think.

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Iain interviews Germaine Greer

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General Election Predictions

A Rather Lovely Election Graphic For You

5 May 2015 at 13:05

LBC’s Adrian Sherling has knocked this up. Rather lovely, don’t you think?

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LBC Book Club: Iain talks to Alastair Campbell

Alastair Campbell talks about his new novel MY NAME IS...

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Random Thoughts

Attitude Column: What If a Footballer Came Out?

5 May 2015 at 09:36

He hadn’t told anyone. Not even his agent. It was going to be done on his own terms. Adam Ranger hadn’t told his mother what he was about to do, and he especially hadn’t told his gossipy sister. They would all find out like the rest of the country. Had he told any one of them, he knew they would come out with all sorts of reasons why he shouldn’t go ahead with what he knew would affect him for the rest of his life. You see, Adam Ranger, star England central defender, was about to announce to the world he was gay.

He knew the risks. He was prepared for the media storm that would no doubt engulf him. People who do something ‘first’ always become renowned. Adam was prepared for that – what he didn’t want to become was ‘notorious. He calculated that if he did it, others would follow suit. And follow suit quickly. He knew that in every dressing room up and down the land there were men like him. Indeed, he knew of one Premier League team where four of the starting eleven were gay. It wasn’t as if anyone was particularly secret any longer. Looks were exchanged. People just knew, but rarely said anything.

Adam had thought long and hard about how to do it. Press conference? No. Too uncontrollable. Newspaper exclusive. No. The other newspapers which hadn’t had the story would be angry and seek to trash him. TV or radio? Maybe, but would he get the time to say what he wanted to say? Would he be able to control the editing? Probably not. No, Adam decided to do a Tom Daley and record his own Youtube video.

After training one day, he went down to PC World and bought a video camera and tripod. “Alright, Adam?” said the sales assistant. “Got the girls coming round, have we? He joshed, with a deliberate wink. “Yeah, something like that,” smiled Adam. “If only you knew, mate,” he thought to himself.

He went home, set up the camera, sat down and looked straight into the lens. “I’m Adam Ranger. I play for England. And I’ve got something I want to tell you…”

Four weeks later…

It had been a momentous month. The praise, the almost entirely positive reaction from his own teammates who had lined up after training and done a collective moonie while pissing themselves laughing. The phone calls from players from other clubs, his England teammates had been a mixture of hilarious, emotional and highly charged. Tears were shed.
Three other international players followed Adam’s lead in the week after he came out to the world. A dozen lower league players did too. And all to an ever increasing shrug of the shoulders.

In his first game after the video release on Youtube Adam ran out at Upton Park, a difficult place for an opposition player at the best of times, to a standing ovation from most of the crowd. He hadn’t bargained for that and for a moment lost his composure. As the applause died down a chant started from the Bobby Moore Stand of “Does your boyfriend know you’re here?” Adam laughed, grabbed the hand of one of his teammates and bowed. The applause restarted.
Yes, there were problems. He knew there would be. His agent was furious with him. “You’ve jeopardised all your commercial contracts by doing this,” he fumed. Adam suspected the very opposite would be true. And he was right. The offers flooded in. “We want you to be the face of our company,” said the chief exec of a major clothing brand. And there was more. Lots more.

Back in the room…

And that’s how I’d like to think things would be if a professional footballer took that great leap. OK, I might be writing with rose tinted spectacles, but I genuinely think it would be a lot more like this scenario than it was for Justin Fashanu 25 years ago. I have no idea how many professional footballers read Attitude Magazine. Probably more than you think. But if there’s only one, think about the trail you would blaze. Think about what kind of example you would set, not just to your fellow footballers but everyone else. Be proud of who and what you are. And tell the world.

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A Mother Shares a Heartwarming 'Coming Out' Story

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 64: Birmingham

5 May 2015 at 08:48

APOLOGIES, IT SEEMS I FORGOT TO LIST MY FINAL BIRMINGHAM PREDICTIONS. HERE THEY ARE!

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

BIRMINGHAM

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 9
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Birmingham Edgbaston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15620 (37.6%)
Labour: 16894 (40.6%)
Lib Dem: 6387 (15.4%)
BNP: 1196 (2.9%)
Green: 469 (1.1%)
UKIP: 732 (1.8%)
Christian: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 146 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1274 (3.1%)

Sitting MP: Gisela Stuart (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This is by no means a certain Labour hold. If UKIP eats into the Labour vote, the Tories may yet take this seat. UPDATE: I’m told UKIP are making headway in the whote working class area of Bartley Green. Could that help the Tory Dr Luke Evans slip through the middle?

2. Birmingham Erdington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11592 (32.6%)
Labour: 14869 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 5742 (16.2%)
BNP: 1815 (5.1%)
UKIP: 842 (2.4%)
Christian: 217 (0.6%)
Independent: 240 (0.7%)
Others: 229 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 3277 (9.2%)

Sitting MP: Jack Dromey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe seat.

3. Birmingham Hall Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7320 (15%)
Labour: 16039 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 11988 (24.6%)
UKIP: 950 (1.9%)
Respect: 12240 (25.1%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3799 (7.8%)

Sitting MP: Rodger Godsiff (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If Respect had played their cards better, they could have been contenders here in 2015. But they haven’t.

4. Birmingham Hodge Hill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4936 (11.6%)
Labour: 22077 (52%)
Lib Dem: 11775 (27.7%)
BNP: 2333 (5.5%)
UKIP: 714 (1.7%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 10302 (24.3%)

Sitting MP: Liam Byrne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Birmingham Ladywood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4277 (11.9%)
Labour: 19950 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9845 (27.5%)
Green: 859 (2.4%)
UKIP: 902 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 10105 (28.2%)

Sitting MP: Shabana Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Birmingham Northfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14059 (33.6%)
Labour: 16841 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 6550 (15.7%)
BNP: 2290 (5.5%)
Green: 406 (1%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.3%)
Others: 305 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2782 (6.7%)

Sitting MP: Richard Burden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a Conservative seat and it’s conceivable it could be again. But not in 2015, I suspect, depending on where the LibDem vote goes. UPDATE: I am told CCHQ have been impressed by the Tory candidate here and are thowing more support here than any other Birmingham seat.

7. Birmingham Perry Bar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8960 (21.3%)
Labour: 21142 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 9234 (22%)
UKIP: 1675 (4%)
Christian: 507 (1.2%)
Others: 527 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 11908 (28.3%)

Sitting MP: Khalid Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

8. Birmingham Selly Oak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14468 (31.1%)
Labour: 17950 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 10371 (22.3%)
BNP: 1820 (3.9%)
Green: 664 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1131 (2.4%)
Christian: 159 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3482 (7.5%)

Sitting MP: Stephen McCabe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Once held by the Tory Anthony Beaumont-Darke it doesn’t look as if this will return to the Tory fold any time soon.

9. Birmingham Yardley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7836 (19.2%)
Labour: 13160 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 16162 (39.6%)
BNP: 2153 (5.3%)
UKIP: 1190 (2.9%)
Others: 349 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3002 (7.3%)

Sitting MP: John Hemming (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Hemming is a maverick and I wouldn’t bet against him pulling off a surprise, but if Labour is to form a government it’s this kind of seat they need to take back.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LISTEN: Idiotic Stunts Like the Mili-Tablet Happen Because No One Has the Bottle To Say No

4 May 2015 at 20:37

How did the Ed Miliband Tablet idea ever get past the Labour Party drawing board?

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LibDem Politics

Never Go Tiger Hunting With a Gossipy Liberal Democrat

4 May 2015 at 14:34

I had never heard of Lord Scriven before this morning. He’s the LibDem Peer who tweeted that David Cameron had told Nick Clegg before the election that he didn’t think the Tories would get a majority.


This is now leading the BBC and LBC news bulletins. What a shit the man clearly is. I have no idea if it’s true or not, but even if it is, like John Pienaar and Adrian Chiles I shrug my shoulders. What was he supposed to say to Clegg?

I’m going to get a majority and wipe you off planet politics. So there!

No. If he said it, it must have been part of a conversation about renewing the coalition.

I take a very dim view of people who reveal these sorts of things in public, and I am pleased to see Nick Clegg distance himself from it. He clearly wouldn’t want to go tiger hunting with Paul Scriven.

I remember having a conversation with a very senior LibDem back in March who was very keen to tell me he thought the Conservatives would win a majority at the election. Much as I am tempted to tell you who it was – and believe me, you’d be surprised – I won’t, because there’s a big difference between me and Lord Scriven. He’s a total shit, and I’m not.

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UK Politics

Twenty Predictions For Election Night

4 May 2015 at 09:49

1. Just as in 2010 there will be queues outside polling stations at 10pm and people won’t be allowed to vote. Politicians will declare their outrage and say that something must be done to prevent it happening again. Just like 2010.

2. There will be reports of voter intimidation in Tower Hamlets. It wouldn’t be an election otherwise.

3. The Exit Pollsters will be shitting themselves.

4. The Press Association’s prediction of count declaration times will bear little resemblance to reality.

5. Broadcasters will wish they hadn’t booked any politicians as guests as they will just trot out the usual pre-prepared soundbites and refuse to engage in coalition speculation.

6. Jeremy Paxman and David Mitchell won’t hit it off. At all.

7. As election night progresses, a few red lines start shattering.

8. Three or four senior Labour politicians start muttering nice things under their breath about the SNP as the night progresses. Andy Burnham will be one of them.

9. Boris Johnson remains silent until the lie of the land becomes clear, but several of his supporters begin subtly advancing his case on the media as breakfast approaches.

10. In my seat by seat predictions I’ve predicted the Conservatives will get 276 seats. My gut feeling is that is on the low side, but 290 is their maximum reach.

11. For Labour, I’ve predicted 267. I think 275 is their maximum.

12. I’ve predicted the LibDems will get 23 seats. If they get over 30 they will be euphoric. Sort of.

13. I’ve predicted Nigel Farage will win his seat and be one of 5 UKIP MPs. If he doesn’t win, he will resign the UKIP leadership either in his count concession or a few hours later. I predict one of UKIP’s winners will be a complete surprise.

14. The journalist who gets any words out of David Miliband during the night will deserve an award of some kind.

15. The two biggest name casualties will be both be Alexanders – Danny and Wee Dougie.

16. Andrew Neil will be the TV star of election night.

17. The BBC will come to regret their new live position opposite the House of Commons as their daytime coverage is ruined by a man shouting “All Politicians Are Liars”.

18. Len McCluskie, Paul Kenny and other trade union leaders take up semi-permanent residence on College Green opposite Parliament to dole out some “helpful” advice to Ed Miliband.

19. Seconds out, Round Two for Alastair Campbell and Adam Boulton.

20. The broadcaster tents and studios on College Green will still be there two weeks later.

I will be presenting LBC’s election night programme with Shelagh Fogarty from 9.55pm until 5am when Nick Ferrari takes over. If you’re going to a count do keep us up to date with any news by emailing iain@lbc.co.uk, texting 84850 or tweeting @iaindale.

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UK Politics

How Would Parliament Work if the SNP Get 50 Seats?

3 May 2015 at 19:10

No one has so far thought about the consequences for Parliament of the SNP gaining a shed load of seats. Let’s imagine that they do as well as the pollsters say and they get something around 50 seats. There are a number of consequences to that for the operation of Parliament.

* When Nick Clegg had 62 MPs he was entitled to two questions at PMQs. The SNP will no doubt push for the same. I doubt whether this has escaped Angus Robertson, their Westminster leader.

* With this number of MPs the SNP would be entitled to the chairmanships of at least one Select Committee, or maybe two. They would also be entitled to one MP on virtually every Select Committee, just as the LibDems had in the last Parliament.

* Would they take up seats on select committees like Health, Education or Transport, which are devolved matters? If not, would they then argue for two MPs on some other select committees? There are similar concerns about the operation of standing committees.

* Would they co-operate with the so-called ‘usual channels’ if they didn’t get their own way on any of the above?

* Alex Salmond has already stated he wouldn’t seek to displace Angus Robertson as Westminster leader, but I have heard rumours that he instead wants the position of SNP Chief Whip, if there is a Labour government. For Ed Miliband and Rosie Winterton this would be their worst nightmare come true. For the rest of us, it would be an incredible spectacle to watch.

* And while this is nothing to do with the way parliament operates, they would expect to appear on programmes like BBC Question Time as often as the LibDems have done in this Parliament.

I am sure there are many other issues which would need to be discussed if the SNP get so many seats. Feel free to suggest what they might be.

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