General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 3: Suffolk

27 Apr 2015 at 10:12

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.


Number of Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Conservative, 7
Prediction for 2015: Conservative 5, Labour 2
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Bury St Edmunds
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27899 (47.5%)
Labour: 9776 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 15519 (26.4%)
Green: 2521 (4.3%)
UKIP: 3003 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12380 (21.1%)

Sitting MP: David Ruffley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

The only time this seat has ever looked like drifting away from the Tories was in 1997 when David Ruffley only narrowly held on by 368 votes. Since then he has built up a more or less impregnable majority. He’s standing down but this is one to bet your mortgage on.

2. Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27125 (50.8%)
Labour: 8636 (16.2%)
Lib Dem: 13339 (25%)
Green: 1452 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2361 (4.4%)
Independent: 389 (0.7%)
Others: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 13786 (25.8%)

Sitting MP: Dr Dan Poulter (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Again, nothing less than a political earthquake would shift Dan Poulter here, partly due to a split opposition.

3. Ipswich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18371 (39.1%)
Labour: 16292 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 8556 (18.2%)
BNP: 1270 (2.7%)
Green: 775 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1365 (2.9%)
Christian: 149 (0.3%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 70 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2079 (4.4%)

Sitting MP: Ben Gummer (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Another of those bellweather seats that tends to swing with the political wind. The fact that UKIP haven’t been very popular here in the past begs the question as to whether they can eat into the Labour vote to allow Ben Gummer to squeak through. The fact that the LibDems have also scored strongly in the past tends to suggest that a slab of their 18% at the last election will go to Labour as well. Gummer has provied to be a popular, independent minded MP, but has only had one term to build up a personal vote. Will that be enough? I suspect not.

4. South Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24550 (47.7%)
Labour: 7368 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 15861 (30.8%)
UKIP: 3637 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (16.9%)

Sitting MP: Tim Yeo (CON)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

If Tim Yeo wasn’t standing down I’d have reduced this to the status of probable Conservative hold, but with the LibDem vote splitting to Labour it’s difficult to see this as anything other than a bet your mortgage Tory hold.

5. Suffolk Coastal

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25475 (46.4%)
Labour: 8812 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16347 (29.8%)
Green: 1103 (2%)
UKIP: 3156 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 9128 (16.6%)

Sitting MP: Therese Coffey (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

A much safer seat than the figures show, mainly because of the high LibDem vote. Put your money on an increased majority for Therese Coffey.

6. Waveney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20571 (40.2%)
Labour: 19802 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6811 (13.3%)
Green: 1167 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.2%)
Independent: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 769 (1.5%)

Sitting MP: Peter Aldous (Con)
Prediction: Probable Labour gain

Peter Aldous has a wafer thin majority. Formerly Jim Prior’s seat it went Labour in 1997 and if UKIP take more votes off the Tories than Labour, it’s likely to return to Labour, given that they will be the beneficiary of any reduction in the LibDem vote. Aldous will still feel there is all to play for and a Conservative hold can’t be ruled out, but the odds are stacked against them.

7. West Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24312 (50.6%)
Labour: 7089 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11262 (23.4%)
BNP: 1428 (3%)
UKIP: 3085 (6.4%)
Independent: 540 (1.1%)
Others: 373 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13050 (27.1%)

Sitting MP: Matthew Hancock (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Seeing as this has been a Conservative held seat since the 19th century, it’s another Conservative hold to be your mortgage on.

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE



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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 2: Norfolk

27 Apr 2015 at 09:55

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

Note that the constituencies where the full text is in BOLD is one where my prediction has changed. In this case the only change is Norwich North


Seats: 9
Current State of the Parties: Con 7, LibDem 2
Predicted State of the Parties: Con 6, LibDem 1, Labour 2
Final Prediction: Con 7, LibDem 1, Labour 1


2010 Result:
Conservative: 24338 (46.2%)
Labour: 7287 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 17046 (32.4%)
BNP: 871 (1.7%)
Green: 752 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2382 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 7292 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: Keith Simpson (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

It would take an earthquake to shift Keith Simpson. The LibDems used to have pretensions here but the so-called ‘North Norfolk effect’ has so far not trickled south of Aylsham.

Great Yarmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18571 (43.1%)
Labour: 14295 (33.2%)
Lib Dem: 6188 (14.4%)
BNP: 1421 (3.3%)
Green: 416 (1%)
UKIP: 2066 (4.8%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4276 (9.9%)

Sitting MP: Brandon Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

A genuine three way marginal, this seat ought to swing back to Labour if Ed Miliband is to win a majority. However, much of Labour’s vote has defected to UKIP and this seat is one of their top targets. In local government UKIP has won a swathe of seats on both the borough and county councils. As elsewhere, UKIP has had candidate troubles here and that may count against them. Brandon Lewis, who won the seat with a bigger than expected majority in 2010 and has been quite a high profile junior minister will do well to hang on here, but he may well just do it. UPDATE: The latest Ashcroft poll shows UKIP doing incredibly well, but two points behind Brandon Lewis, with Labour a further three points behind. In many ways this is too close to call, but I think the most likely result is a very narrow Conservative win.

Mid Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25123 (49.5%)
Labour: 8857 (17.4%)
Lib Dem: 11267 (22.2%)
BNP: 1261 (2.5%)
Green: 1457 (2.9%)
UKIP: 2800 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 13856 (27.3%)

Sitting MP: George Freeman (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

North Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15928 (32.1%)
Labour: 2896 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 27554 (55.5%)
Green: 508 (1%)
UKIP: 2680 (5.4%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11626 (23.4%)

Sitting MP: Norman Lamb (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

This was the scene of my electoral defenstration in 2005. Despite adverse boundary changes, which took Fakenham out of the seat, Lamb’s majority increased in 2010 to more than 11,000.. It will probably be cut this time, although UKIP is making a lot of inroads into the Tory vote. Labour has a very active candidate in Denise Burke and it is expected that she will start to build up the almost extinct Labour vote here, almost entirely at the expense of the LibDems.

Norwich North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17280 (40.6%)
Labour: 13379 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 7783 (18.3%)
BNP: 747 (1.8%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1878 (4.4%)
Christian: 118 (0.3%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3901 (9.2%)

Sitting MP: Chloe Smith
Prediction: Labour gain
Final Prediction: Conservative hold
This is the seat where I cut my political teeth back in the mid 1980s. It hasn’t changed a lot since then, although there are quite a few new build housing estates. This is another seat which goes with the prevailing political wind. If Cameron wins a majority Chloe Smith will hold her seat. If he doesn’t she will face a very tough fight against the impressive Labour candidate Jessica Asato. UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll puts Chloe Smith only one point behind Jessica Asato. I have kept in touch with people in this seat and all the anecdotal evidence suggests Chloe is set to pull off an upset here.

Norwich South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10902 (22.9%)
Labour: 13650 (28.7%)
Lib Dem: 13960 (29.4%)
BNP: 697 (1.5%)
Green: 7095 (14.9%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.4%)
Others: 102 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 310 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: Simon Wright
Prediction: Labour gain

If there was one definite Labour gain at the election, this would be it. Much to his own surprise Wright won this from Charles Clarke 2010 and since then seems to have remained in a total state of bemusement. Having been Norman Lamb’s campaign manager, Wright knows all there is to know about the LibDem campaign manual for holding a seat once you’ve won it, but he seemed to give up on this seat almost from day 1. The Greens have pretensions here, but usually flatter to deceive in general elections. It’s conceivable that they could gain five percent from both the LibDems and Labour, but in reality it’s difficult to see anything other than a Labour gain. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll puts Labour on 33, the Greens on 20 and the LibDems on only 12%, behind the Tories on 18.

North West Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25916 (54.2%)
Labour: 6353 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 11106 (23.2%)
BNP: 1839 (3.8%)
Green: 745 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1841 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 14810 (31%)

Sitting MP: Henry Bellingham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This seat went Labour for a time under Tony Blair, but it returned to the Conservative fold in 2001 and Henry Bellingham has built a solid majority. This might well increase in May as UKIP slices into the Labour vote, although they might do the same to Bellingham.

South Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27133 (49.3%)
Labour: 7252 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16193 (29.4%)
BNP: 1086 (2%)
Green: 1000 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2329 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10940 (19.9%)

Sitting MP: Richard Bacon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold*

The LibDems have done their best here in the past and have controlled one or two local councils, but they have never seriously threatened the Conservative majority, and certainly won’t do this time.

South West Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23753 (48.3%)
Labour: 9119 (18.6%)
Lib Dem: 10613 (21.6%)
BNP: 1774 (3.6%)
Green: 830 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3061 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 13140 (26.7%)

Sitting MP: Liz Truss (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Of all the so-called safe Conservative seats in Norfolk, this one that is most volatile. It has seen a huge demographic change in the last 20 years. It almost went Labour in 1997 but Gillian Shephard just held on. UKIP have got a foothold here, but no one quite knows where their vote might come from.

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE



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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions: 1. Essex

27 Apr 2015 at 09:33

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

Note that the constituencies where the full text is in BOLD is one where my prediction has changed.


Seats: 18
Current Political Makeup: Con 16, LibDem 1, UKIP 1
Prediction in January: Con 14, UKIP 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1
Final Prediction: Con 14, UKIP 3, Lab 0, LibDem 1

1. Basildon & Billericay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (52.7%)
Labour: 9584 (23.1%)
Lib Dem: 6538 (15.7%)
BNP: 1934 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 12338 (29.7%)

Sitting MP: John Baron (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

Assuming John Baron doesn’t defect to UKIP, this seems a safe Conservative hold. For Labour to win, the entire LibDem vote would need to go to Ed Miliband and UKIP would need to take a huge chunk of the Conservative vote.

2. Braintree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25901 (52.6%)
Labour: 9780 (19.9%)
Lib Dem: 9247 (18.8%)
BNP: 1080 (2.2%)
Green: 718 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2477 (5%)
MAJORITY: 16121 (32.8%)

Sitting MP: Brooks Newmark (Con, standing down)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Despite Brooks Newmark’s fall from grace, it’s difficult to see this north Essex seat as anything other than a Tory hold. However, the LibDem vote is likely to at least halve, with Labour and UKIP being the main beneficiaries. Expect a healthy, but reduced Tory majority.

3. Brentwood & Ongar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28793 (56.9%)
Labour: 4992 (9.9%)
Lib Dem: 11872 (23.5%)
BNP: 1447 (2.9%)
Green: 584 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2037 (4%)
English Dem: 491 (1%)
Independent: 263 (0.5%)
Others: 113 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16921 (33.4%)

Sitting MP: Eric Pickles (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Eric Pickles has built a huge majority here and he may well increase it as the LibDem vote shrivels. No more comment necessary.

4. Castle Point

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19806 (44%)
Labour: 6609 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 4232 (9.4%)
BNP: 2205 (4.9%)
Others: 12174 (27%)
MAJORITY: 7632 (17%)

Sitting MP: Rebecca Harris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Final Prediction: UKIP gain

One of the more interesting Essex seats due to its previous MP, Bob Spink. He succeeded Sir Bernard Braine in 1992 but then lost it in the 1997 Labour landslide, before regaining in four years later. He then briefly defected to UKIP before cutting ties with them. He is not standing this time, but the UKIP candidate, Jamie Huntsman, is the UKIP leader on Essex County Council. Canvey Island has the highest proportion of people in England who identified as “English” in the 2011 census. This is part of the reason why many think that behind Clacton and Thurrock, this is UKIP’s third best target seat in Essex. An upset could be on the cards here, but the most likely result is a Tory hold. UPDATE: UKIP are putting a huge amount of effort into this seat and the demographics are in their favour. The Ashcroft poll in February showed a significant swing to UKIP, putting them only one point behind Rebecca Harris. I’ve now moved to thinking a UKIP victory is slightly more likely than not.

5. Chelmsford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25207 (46.2%)
Labour: 5980 (11%)
Lib Dem: 20097 (36.8%)
BNP: 899 (1.6%)
Green: 476 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1527 (2.8%)
English Dem: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 153 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5110 (9.4%)

Sitting MP: Simon Burns (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

Chelmsford has been a LibDem target all through my adult life. Yet they’ve never quite managed to unseat either Norman St John Stevas or Simon Burns. Just when they looked as if they might, they were thwarted by boundary changes. Simon Burns will only be in danger if UKIP take a huge chunk of his vote away and the LibDem vote holds up.

6. Clacton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22867 (53%)
Labour: 10799 (25%)
Lib Dem: 5577 (12.9%)
BNP: 1975 (4.6%)
Green: 535 (1.2%)
Independent: 292 (0.7%)
Others: 1078 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 12068 (28%)

By-Election Result (Oct 2014)
UKIP: 21113 (59.7%)
Conservative: 8709 (24.6%)
Labour: 3957 (11.2%)
Green: 688 (1.9%
Lib Dem: 483 (1.2%)
Others: 388 (1.2%)
BNP: 1975 (4.6%)
Green: 535 (1.2%)
Independent: 292 (0.7%)
Others: 1078 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 12068 (28%)

Sitting MP: Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
Prediction: UKIP hold

Douglas Carswell’s win at the by-election on 8 October was by a far larger margin than even he can have imagined. It’s likely that some of his supporters will return to the Tory fold at the general election, but a hell of a lot of them would have to do that for him to be in danger of being a very short-lived UKIP MP. He genuinely seems to have built up a very loyal personal following.

7. Colchester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15169 (32.9%)
Labour: 5680 (12.3%)
Lib Dem: 22151 (48%)
BNP: 705 (1.5%)
Green: 694 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1350 (2.9%)
English Dem: 335 (0.7%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 6982 (15.1%)

Sitting MP: Sir Bob Russell (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow LibDem hold

Sir Bob Russell is a popular local man who has seen off many a Tory challenge since he was first elected in 1997. His opponent is Will Quince, who fought the seat in 2010. Local election results since 2010 do not bode particularly well for the Tories, yet this is one of those seats where anything could happen depending on how much the LibDem vote declines and how well UKIP do. But Sir Bob is a doughty campaigner for Colchester and has had 15 years to build up a strong personal vote.

8. Epping Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25148 (54%)
Labour: 6641 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 10017 (21.5%)
BNP: 1982 (4.3%)
Green: 659 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1852 (4%)
English Dem: 285 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 15131 (32.5%)

Sitting MP: Eleanor Laing (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

No comment necessary. Anything other than a big majority for Eleanor Laing would be considered a political earthquake.

9. Harlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (44.9%)
Labour: 14766 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 5990 (13.7%)
BNP: 1739 (4%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4925 (11.2%)

Sitting MP: Robert Halfon (Con)
Prediction: Very narrow Labour gain
Final Prediction: Conservative hold

Robert Halfon’s majority in 2010 was far higher than he had ever dreamed, but this is a seat that goes with the prevailing political wind. Halfon has proved himself to be an adept political campaigner but can he really hold off the Labour challenge? He must be hoping that UKIP will chip away at the Labour vote, as well as recognising that he will also lose some white working class votes to Farage’s party too. There are 6,000 LibDem votes up for grabs here too, which will also make the Tories nervous about their chances of retaining this seat. They are right to be. UPDATE: UPDATE: Of all my predictions in January this one drew the most criticism. Even Labour supporters reckoned I had called it wrong. I’ve also talked to several people who live there and every single one of them reckons Rob Halfon will hold on. So I’m changing my mind on this one.

10. Harwich & North Essex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23001 (46.9%)
Labour: 9774 (19.9%)
Lib Dem: 11554 (23.6%)
BNP: 1065 (2.2%)
Green: 909 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2527 (5.2%)
Independent: 170 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 11447 (23.4%)

Sitting MP: Bernard Jenkin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Even if the LibDem fractures here, it’s hard to see Bernard Jenkin being under serious threat.

11. Maldon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28661 (59.8%)
Labour: 6070 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 9254 (19.3%)
BNP: 1464 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2446 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 19407 (40.5%)

Sitting MP: John Whittingdale (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

Unthinkable that this seat could return anything other than a Conservative.

12. Rayleigh & Wickford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30257 (57.8%)
Labour: 7577 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 7919 (15.1%)
BNP: 2160 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2211 (4.2%)
English Dem: 2219 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 22338 (42.7%)

Sitting MP: Mark Francois (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

UKIP may make some inroads to the Tory vote here, but not enough to worry Mark Francois.

13. Rochford & Southend East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19509 (46.9%)
Labour: 8459 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8084 (19.4%)
BNP: 1856 (4.5%)
Green: 707 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2405 (5.8%)
Independent: 611 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 11050 (26.5%)

Sitting MP: James Duddridge (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

A split opposition here has enabled James Duddridge to maintain a very health majority. The only way it could be threatened is for the LibDem vote to collapse almost entirely to Labour and for UKIP to take 7-10,000 Tory votes. Highly unlikely.

14. Saffron Walden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30155 (55.5%)
Labour: 5288 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 14913 (27.4%)
BNP: 1050 (1.9%)
Green: 735 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2228 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15242 (28%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Haselhurst (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

This seat used to have a reasonable agricultural Labour vote, but that has virtually disappeared now. The LibDems, like in Chelmsford, have flattered to deceive here for years. Any decline in their vote will see Sir Alan Haselhurst increase his majority as UKIP are unlikely to do well here.

15. South Basildon & East Thurrock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19624 (43.9%)
Labour: 13852 (31%)
Lib Dem: 5977 (13.4%)
BNP: 2518 (5.6%)
UKIP: 2639 (5.9%)
Others: 125 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5772 (12.9%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Metcalfe (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

A difficult seat to call. Always regarded as a bellweather seat, if Ed Miliband is to win a majority he needs to win seats like this, and with a good majority. UKIP believes this is theirs to win but they have selected a completely inappropriate candidate (Kerry Smith). Their only hope is to take a large chunk of Tory votes, but this will depend on whether the Tory message of ‘Vote UKIP, Get Miliband’ resonates. The Labour candidate, the oddly named Mike Le-Surf, is local to the seat and is a Brentwood councillor. However, Stephen Metcalfe has done the legwork locally and much may depend on how big a personal vote he has managed to build up. Interestingly the Labour vote was 12,000 down on 1997, although it was under rather different boundaries. Much may depend on turnout. A high turnout may well bode well for Labour.

16. Southend West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20086 (46.1%)
Labour: 5850 (13.4%)
Lib Dem: 12816 (29.4%)
BNP: 1333 (3.1%)
Green: 644 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1714 (3.9%)
English Dem: 546 (1.3%)
Independent: 617 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 7270 (16.7%)

Sitting MP: David Amess (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

A safe Conservative seat which could have an increased majority if the LibDem vote collapses to Labour.

17. Thurrock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16869 (36.8%)
Labour: 16777 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 4901 (10.7%)
BNP: 3618 (7.9%)
UKIP: 3390 (7.4%)
Christian: 266 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Jackie Doyle-Price (Con)
Prediction: Narrow UKIP gain

When former Ed Miliband aide Polly Billington was selected as Labour candidate for Thurrock she must have been as confident as she could be that she would be the next MP for Thurrock. Local UKIP candidate (and now MEP) Tim Aker has put a giant spanner in the works. If you look at all the local election results for this constituency you’d be very brave not to bet on him pulling off a major upset. This is the seat Nigel Farage should have fought, and he may well live to regret it. Doyle-Price has been a good local MP, but that may count for little. However, this is one of the few genuine three way marginals, and it may well be that each of the three parties ends up within a couple of percentage points of each other. But on balance, I’m calling this for UKIP.

18. Witham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24448 (52.2%)
Labour: 8656 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 9252 (19.8%)
Green: 1419 (3%)
UKIP: 3060 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 15196 (32.4%)

Sitting MP: Priti Patel (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

A split opposition means Priti Patel is safe, even if much of the LibDem vote goes to Labour. Patel parades her eurosceptism at every opportunity so it’s difficult to imagine UKIP making a massive impact in Witham, even though demographically they probably ought to.

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE


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General Election Predictions

Final Seat by Seat General Election Predictions: The Complete List

27 Apr 2015 at 09:29

These are the links to my final election predictions, calculated at the end of April 2015. The figures in brackets denote the changes since the revised predictions in mid March. Click on the links for the seat by seat breakdown.

The final tally looks like this…

Conservative 276
Labour 267
Liberal Democrat 23
SNP 54
Plaid Cymru 4
Respect 1
Green 1
Sinn Fein 5
Independent 2

Bedfordshire (0 changes)
Berkshire (0 changes)
Birmingham (0 changes)
Bristol & Surrounds (2 changes)
Buckinghamshire (0 change)
Cambridgeshire (0 changes)
Cheshire (0 changes)
Cornwall (1 change)
County Durham (0 changes)
Cumbria (0 changes)
Derbyshire (0 changes)
Devon (1 change)
Dorset (0 changes)
East Sussex (1 change)
Essex (2 changes)
Gloucestershire (1 change)
Hampshire (1 change)
Hampshire (0 changes)
Herefordshire & Worcestershire (0 changes)
Hertfordshire (1 change)
Kent (0 changes)
Kent (0 changes)
Lancashire (0 changes)
Leicestershire (0 changes)
Lincolnshire (1 change)
London Central (0 changes)
London East (0 changes)
London North East (0 changes)
London North West (0 changes)
London South (0 changes)
London South East (0 changes)
London South West (0 changes)
London West (0 changes)
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Video: Iain Comments on Cameron's Reshuffle

Sky News - 4 Sept 2013

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UK Politics

Future Leaders Series 4: Who Will Succeed David Cameron?

25 Apr 2015 at 19:02

This is the fourth in a series looking at the runners and riders in post-election leadership contests. You can read my article about the runners and riders in a post election LibDem leadership contest HERE, UKIP HERE and Labour HERE

In the event of an election defeat, it’s usual for a party leader to fall on their sword more or less immediately. I don’t think this would be any different for David Cameron. In the unlikely event of a Labour majority, he would be gone by the end of Friday 8 May. I am not sure he would even be persuaded to stay on while the party elects a new leader. In that event it would be interesting to see who would become acting leader in the interim. There’s no formal process for deciding this. Could it be Ken Clarke’s last hurrah? The second scenario is that Cameron is persuaded to stand aside in the event of failing to win a majority, but with the Tories being the largest party. James Kirkup speculates in the Telegraph HERE that in this event Boris Johnson could be annointed leader with no election. This is both fanciful and preposterous and is obviously a Johnson inspired kite flying exercise. It’s widely believed that Boris Johnson, Theresa May and George Osborne are all set to stand, but there is likely to be at least a dozen candidates who are already considering putting their names forward. And believe me, those discussions are happening now.


Click HERE and scroll down


If David Cameron resigns after May 7th, these are the most likely leadership candidates…


Age: 51
Political Record: Mayor of London 2008-
Likely to Stand: 100%
For: Pizazz, charisma by the bucketload, ability to connect with young people and non Tories, ability to recognise his own deficiencies and appoint good people to his team
Against: Old Etonian, disorganised, lack of attention to detail, previous record as an MP, not known well among Tory MPs so might not get to 2nd round, said to be more skeletons
Verdict: Will be heavily promoted by the right wing media, but can he reach the party round of voting? If he does, he’ll win. Any MP who was in parliament from 2001-5 won’t vote for him, he hasn’t made a huge effort to get to know the 2010 intake and most of the 2015 intake won’t know him. His best hope is that they see him as a winner. There will be many Tories who resign from the party if he becomes leader.
Odds: 7/4


Age: 58
Political Record: Home Secretary 2010-
Likely to Stand: 90%
For: Competent, stylish, very good record as Home Secretary
Against: Lack of vocal supporters, seen as slightly stand-offish, the ‘nasty party’ remark is still remembered
Verdict: She could be the ‘Stop Boris’ candidate, but she hasn’t really defined her politics and apart from being seen as competent no one knows what ‘Mayism’ is. It’s also difficult to think who would run her leadership campaign. Could she be the Ann Widdecombe of 2015, by which I mean, she might not be able to find enough people to nominate her or run a campaign? I doubt it, but even having to ask the question says a lot.
Odds: 7/2


Age: 43
Political Record: Chancellor of the Exchequer 2010-
Likely to Stand: 70%
For: In terms of reputation he’s peaking at the right time, turned the economy round, personal image has improved
Against: If Cameron goes down he goes down with him, not popular with many Tory MPs, seen as having his spies all over the place.
Verdict: George Osborne’s best chance of succeeding David Cameron is if Cameron wins a majority and then stands down before 2020. If he stands after an election defeat he will still be a strong candidate, but it’s doubtful he would prevail against Boris.
Odds: 7/1


Age: 46
Political Record: Culture Secretary 2014-
Likely to Stand: 70%
For: Stratospheric rise, safe pair of hands, nailed his colours to the Thatcherite mast, could be the candidate of the right, popular with his own intake, great back story
Against: Lack of experience, slightly robotic media manner, always on message, seen as a bit of a cold fish
Verdict: Could be a good outside bet, but needs to up his profile and quick. Needs to harness the vote which in 2005 went to Liam Fox and David Davis.
Odds: 10/1


Age: 59
Political Record: Defence Secretary 2010-14, Foreign Secretary 2014-
Likely to Stand: 50%
For: Safe pair of hands, seen as a capable Defence Secretary, economically literate
Against: Comparisons to John Major are unfair, but he is seen as a little grey. Hasn’t really made his mark at the Foreign Office
Verdict: Would paint himself as the candidate of the right and therefore be fishing in the same pond as Sajid Javid.
Odds: 16/1


Age: 47
Political Record: Ecucation Secretary 2010-14, Chief Whip 2014-
Likely to Stand: 20%
For: True radical, eloquent, transparently nice, hated by Labour
Against: Seen as divisive, questionable record as Chief Whip, has questioned himself whether he would be up to the job, Neocon foreign policy views
Verdict: Has ruled himself out of standing several times, but if he could be persuaded would be the strongest right of centre candidate.
Odds: 20/1


Age: 66
Political Record: Minister in the Major Government 1990-97, Shadow Home Secretary 2003-8, 2005 Leadership contender
Likely to Stand: 20%
For: Popular in the voluntary party, still has the ability to garner headlines, more youthful than his age suggests, ability to reach beyond the Tory Party
Against: Age, memories of the 2005 campaign, seen as a serial rebel, not popular among the 2010 intake
Verdict: More likely to play the role of ‘kingmaker’ than be a candidate himself
Odds: 33/1


Age: 53
Political Record: Defence Secretary 2010-11, 2005 leadership contender
Likely to Stand: 40%
For: Articulate, good on the media, has remained loyal since his resignation in 2011, popular on the right
Against: His resignation, questionmarks over judgement, has an established fanbase in Parliament
Verdict: Needs to come out of the traps quickly and establish himself as the candidate of the right, and see off Javid, Hammond and Gove
Odds: 33/1


Age: 39
Political Record: Defra Secretary 2014-
Likely to Stand: 30%
For: Relentlessly ambitious
Against: Relentlessly ambitious, failed to make her mark in Cabinet so far, speech tanked at 2014 Tory conference
Verdict: Will be desperate to stand, but it’s not clear where her support would lie
Odds: 40/1


Age: 52
Political Record: MP for Hereford since 2010
Likely to Stand: 30%
For: Clever, urbane, media friendly, looks like a prime minister, radical and original thinker, disliked by Cameron
Against: Old Etonian, failed to become a minister since 2010, inexperienced and untried at the top level
Verdict: Even though he’s disliked by Cameron, he could become the Cameroon candidate, although his inexperience may well doom him. Should stand to put a marker down.
Odds: 40/1


Age: 48
Political Record: Culture Secretary 2010-12, Health Secretary 2012-
Likely to Stand: 40%
For: Instantly likeable, ability to recover from a crisis, seen as having done a good job at Health, popular with 2010 intake
Against: Not political enough, more Cameroon than David Cameron, perhaps too nice (if that’s possible)
Verdict: Tougher than he looks, he could be the surprise package if he sets out his stall early enough. His support will come from the 2010 and 2015 intakes
Odds: 20/1


Age: 42
Political Record: Education Secretary 2014-
Likely to Stand: 20%
For: Has neutralised education as a controversial issue to an extent, which was her remit, she possesses a core toughness which is not always obvious on the outside
Against: Her seat is very marginal, few know what kind of Tory she is and she needs to explain that quickly if she is to stand
Verdict: Popular among her intake, she could mount a good campaign which would stand her in good stead for the future. But she would do it knowing it was unlikely she would win.
Odds: 33/1


Age: 58
Political Record: Northern Ireland Secretary 2010-12, Defra Secretary 2012-14
Likely to Stand: 50%
For: Personable, a conviction politician, unfairly sacked from Defra, kept Northern Ireland quiet as an issue
Against: Seen as an IDS disciple, questionmarks over intellect from those on the left of the party
Verdict: Has carved out a niche as a friendly critic since his defenstration. If he’s to stand he will need to act quickly to become the standardbearer of the right.
Odds: 25/1


Age: 47
Political Record: Chairman of the 1922 Committee 2010-
Likely to Stand: 20%
For: Bright, loyal, on the sensible right, terrifcally successful chair of the 1922 Committee, popular across the party, grammar school boy
Against: No ministerial experience
Verdict: Could be a surprise candidate and could do well if he runs he right sort of campaign. Watch him.
Odds: 50/1


Most leadership contests end up with a maximum of five serious candidates. I’ve listed fourteen here. I regard the prospect of a Boris coronation as preposterous and something which would lead to many people quitting the Tories for good. There’s no doubt that Boris is the candidate to beat, but beatable he is. Any Tory who believes that he is the answer to all Tory problems is deluding themselves. He’s done a very good job as Mayor of London, but leading a political party and being prime minister is something at a very different level. In the end, I wonder how many Tory MPs’ pens will hover over the ballot paper intending to put a cross in Boris’s box, but then moving to someone else when they come to their senses. Boris is a star. He’s mobbed wherever he goes. He reaches parts of the country that no other politician can reach, and yet is that really a qualification for running the country? Yes, he’s clever. He even has intellectual pretensions, but running the country?

That said, it’s a leadership contest that is his to lose. But as I well know from my experience working for David Davis is 2005, it’s rare that the frontrunner wins.

For what it’s worth I think the six most likely candidates to run, in the event of a Tory defeat, and appear on the ballot paper will be Boris Johnson, Theresa May, George Osborne, Sajid Javid, Owen Paterson and Liam Fox. I do wonder, though, whether George Osborne might decide that it might be better to sit this one out.



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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Ann Clwyd

Iain and Labour MP Ann Clywd discuss their experiences of nursing failings and take calls from listeners.

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General Election Predictions

How David Cameron Unwittingly Promoted the Rise of the SNP

25 Apr 2015 at 09:00

It could have been so very different. This general election campaign has so far been dominated by one woman. No, not Margaret Thatcher or her legacy, but another Iron Lady, the leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon. No one could have predicted it, few can explain it, but let me have a go.

When Scotland voted ‘no’ by a larger margin than expected we all thought that was it. Alex Salmond had been firmly put back in his box and he had quit the stage. The SNP would shut up, and all would be well with the union. Not a bit of it. The Prime Minister’s vow, announced hurriedly in Downing Street at 7am with the ink on the ballot papers hardly dry, saw to that. Would he deliver or would he welch on it? Labour politicians piled in accusing him of making a promise he wouldn’t deliver on. He then compounded his error by going further and suggesting even more fiscal powers, including more powers to control income tax north of the border, giving Scotland effective fiscal autonomy. Labour went berserk and over the time votes Labour had lost to the ‘yes’ campaign became permanently lost to the SNP. Not only that but even Labour voters who voted ‘no’ began to look at the SNP in a different light and consider switching their allegiances. Opinion polls started to reflect this phenomenon and pundits started talking about the SNP gaining a dozen seats, then two dozen, then three dozen. One or two commentators even predict they will gain four dozen, meaning they will win every single seat in Scotland.

I admit it, I was slow to pick up on what was and is happening north of the border and anyone who spotted this trend on could be in for a bumper payday. When I did my seat by seat predictions in January I predicted a total of 18 seats for the SNP. Looking at each seat individually (and I have done this for all 650, believe it or not, thereby proving my ultimate political geek credentials) I just couldn’t see how the SNP could overturn five figure Labour majorities. I can now. LibDem MP Jo Swinson, who has held the relatively marginal seat of East Dunbartonshire told me she has spent all her life fighting Labour, but they have now given up in her seat and she is now having to cope with fighting the SNP, who have recruited more than 1,000 new members there, many of them keen to take part in the campaign and defeat her. If she holds on it will be a miracle. My words, not hers. I don’t blame or its customers for not running on a market on that constituency.

This is a phenomenon on Canadian proportions. For the younger among you that is a reference to the Canadian general election of 1993 when governing Conservative leader Kim Campbell became the least successful Canadian politician of all time by reducing the number of Conservative held seats from 156 to just two.

David Cameron has played into the SNP hands at every point of this campaign. His strategy (if you can call it that) towards the TV debates has given Nicola Sturgeon a profile she can only dreamed about beforehand. Had he taken part in three three way debates like last time, Sturgeon wouldn’t have been seen in a debate south of Hadrian’s Wall. Instead she is thought by most people to have ‘won’ both the national debates. People may not have agreed with all she said, but boy did she say it well.

The Tory campaign has developed into one in which they have nothing to say apart from to warn of the dangers of a Labour-SNP tie-up after the election. It’s a perfectly reasonable thing to do, but not to the exclusion of everything else.

So what’s going to happen? In my latest predictions I have the SNP on 41 seats, Labour on 11, LibDems on 4 and the Tories on 3. However, this weekend I will be revising that. I now think the LibDems face almost total wipeout and will retain only Orkney & Shetland and possibly one other. I’m reducing the Tory total also, and they may even face total wipeout. I also think that if things continue as they are over the next two weeks a few more Labour seats may fall to the SNP pushing their total to nearer 50. I think the betting line on is about right at the moment: with over 50.5 rated at 2.35 (42.553%) and under 50.5 at 1.645 (60.784%). I see the overs shortening as events unfold in the next fortnight. I am told by that currently 58% of the volume of bets has been placed on under 50.5 seats for SNP and that under 50.5 seats has gone from 2.0 to 1.64 (50% likelihood to 60%).

Make no mistake, one way or another Scotland is going to be the big story of election night, and it means it is impossible for Labour to form a majority government. The best Ed Miliband can hope for is to lead a minority administration, dependant on the SNP and LibDems for support in important votes. I believe that is the most likely outcome of this election and would reluctantly back the 2.63 (38.022%) priced for this on This heralds a whole new, and possibly very dark era in the governance of the nation. You have been warned.

This article first appeared on



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LBC Book Club: Iain talks to Jennifer Saunders

Iain talks to Jennifer Saunders about her new autobiography 'Bonkers'.

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UK Politics

WATCH: LBC's Election Call with Ed Miliband

24 Apr 2015 at 23:28

This is our election call, which I hosted today with Labour leader Ed Miliband. It lasts thirty minutes.



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Interview with Sir Nicholas Soames on Winston Churchill

25 minutes with Nick Soames on the 50th anniversary of his grandfather's funeral

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ConHome Diary: Boris Gets on 'All Fours' With Theresa May

24 Apr 2015 at 13:46

I can’t pretend that I have read every newspaper every day, but it seems to me that there is one broadsheet that has trumped its rivals every single day, and that’s The Times. Its range and depth are simply unrivalled, and what with its star team of columnists it is unmissable. Its App is also so much easier to navigate than its main rivals too. And I love Ann Treneman. Sketchwriting can be a bit hit and miss, but she has a consistency which is difficult to match.
For hard working people #ArentWeAllDear

Readers may remember that I wrote about the death of Sir Anthony Garner in a recent column, who was director of the party’s organisation from 1976-1988. His son Christopher has asked if I can pass on details of his memorial service. It is to be held on Tuesday 12th May at 2.30pm at St Mary’s Church in Old Amersham. He is keen to keep track of numbers so if you plan on attending could you email
I was chatting to a former Conservative MP the other day about Sir Anthony Garner, who was bemoaning the state of the party organisation and the fact that many of his members had died in the last few years or had buggered off to UKIP. “The policy on gay marriage has had a bigger impact that Number Ten realises locally. They’ve even driven away our more useful bigots.” Surely a front runner for quote of the campaign?

It’s all part of our Long Term Economic Strategy #CourseItIsLove
Over the weekend I got yet another of the wretched press releases from CCHQ informing me that the Labour campaign was in chaos. Thanks for that insight. Having lost every single week of the campaign to Ed Miliband so far, if I were them I’d be looking in the mirror a little more. This election is slipping away from the Conservatives and no one seems to realise it. It’s all very well warning of the danger of an SNP-Labour arrangement, but to do it every hour of every day to the exclusion of almost everything else is ridiculous. Michael Forsyth has said that the effect if to big up the SNP and make Scottish independence ever more likely. He certainly has a point. Indeed, had David Cameron agreed to do a repeat of the three TV debates from last time the SNP wouldn’t have had sniff at the exposure they have had courtesy of the two TV debates so far. That’s not to say they wouldn’t still be way ahead in Scotland, but it comes to a pretty pass when you have people in England clamouring for SNP candidates to stand in England next time.

Only one party can guarantee you an EU referendum #YeahWeveHeardItAllBefore
I was having lunch with a senior newspaper group representative the other day and he showed me an email he had just received from one of the biggest media analysts in the business. These people are paid to provide independent advice to bog companies. He said to me I should read the final sentence. “We have discounted the possibility of a Conservative led government”. That’s quite something for anyone to predict at this stage, but the fact that a well-respected city firm Is now doing so ought to send a shiver down the back of any Conservative strategist.

Steve Riley is the LibDem candidate for Broadland. Let’s face it, he was never going to get my vote but having received his election address he most certainly won’t be now. It is illiterate, with numerous grammatical and spelling mistakes. He even manages to get him own phone number wrong, as it has three too many digits. I know the LibDems have leaked members in recent times, but it seems they don’t even have enough people to proof-read a leaflet. At one time the LibDems thought they could win Broadland as the Norman Lamb effect would ripple southwards from North Norfolk. They had always been strong on Broadland District Council. Their leader, the former blogger Nich Starling, resigned and quit the party and they’ve never been the same since. I predict a greatly increased Tory majority in Broadland on 7 May – not exactly my most controversial prediction.
Would you ever vote tactically to keep Labour, or in Scotland the SNP, out? It’s a question a lot of people are asking themselves in this election. For instance, if you live in Hornsey & Wood Green, would you lend your vote to Lynne Featherstone of the LibDems seeing as the Conservative candidate has no chance? If you live in Stirling would you vote Labour to keep the SNP out, or for Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire for the same reason? Sir Malcolm Rifkind told me on Tuesday that he understood anybody who would vote for a unionist party over the SNP. He hinted he would do so himself, if it really mattered. Quite an admission from a former Scottish Secretary.

We’ve got two weeks to save the NHS #ThatWorkedWellIn1992DidntIt
Quote of the week by Boris Johnson (who else?): “I’m on all fours with Theresa May”. I will leave it to your imagination to guess what the context was.



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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Is Made to Cry by Sue in Twickenham

During a discussion about living with an alcoholic, Iain is moved to tears by a caller. The call lasted more than 20 minutes - very unusual in talk radio.

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Me & Jacqui Smith: Separated at Birth

24 Apr 2015 at 09:36

I woke up at 3am this morning. I just couldn’t sleep properly for some reason. Now I know why. I switched on my phone to find a Google Alert. It linked to an article on MailOnline by Richard Littlejohn. Can’t be good, I thought. I wasn’t far wrong. I clicked on it and a pic of me came up with a lot of hair. The rest you can see for yourself…

Most nights before I go to bed, I like to watch the paper review on Sky News.
On Wednesday it was the turn of former Home Secretary ‘Jackboots’ Jacqui Smith and the LBC radio presenter Iain Dale.
I had to do a double-take. They must have been separated at birth. If Dale had a Smith-style syrup, they’d be taken for identical twins.

Thank Christ I don’t to paper review with Paul Nuttall. As you can imagine, the sleep didn’t improve.

When I got up later I texted Jacqui. She hadn’t seen it.

I have to admit, though, I’d kill for her hair.



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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Margaret Beckett & John Rentoul

Discussion on Tony Blair's speech on Britain's need to remain at the heart of Europe.

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UK Politics

Attitude Column: Get Off Your Pert Little Arse/Big Fat Arse and Vote!

19 Apr 2015 at 18:51

If I stopped you in the street and asked you what you think of politicians, chances are you’d give me one or all of these replies: “They’re all the same”. “They’re only in it for themselves.” “They don’t represent people like me”. “What do they know about my life?” “They’re all lying, thieving scumbags”. And one in three of you would march away proclaiming “I don’t vote”, as if it was something to be proud of. That’s how bad things have got.

In all likelihood half of you reading this article won’t be bothered to get off your pert little arses and go down to the polling station on 7th May. And yet you are happy to take part in votes to decide who wins the X Factor or Britain’s Got Talent. This just goes to show what a challenge politicians have in encouraging the population in general, let alone the gay bit of it, to take part in what ought to be the biggest celebration of democracy ever.

If you were a gay Hungarian, you’d turnout in your hundreds of thousands to vote against the Jobbik Party which wants to criminalise homosexual behaviour. If you were a gay American you’d probably turn out to vote in state referendums asking you whether you were in favour of gay marriage. Yet in this country, on the face of it, most gay equality battles are won. Yes, there are many concerns about gay bashing, about bullying of homosexual kids in schools and discrimination at work, but none of these issues are going to get gay activists protesting the on streets and telling politicians that they won’t vote for them unless there is ‘action this day’! But just because battles over age of consent, adoption rules and marriage have largely been won, that doesn’t give the gay voter the excuse he or she may need to sit on his or backside and not take a trip down to the polling station on 7th May.

The fact is most gay men and women vote in exactly the same way as the rest of the population and this is a mark of the equality that has been won over the last forty years or so. All three traditional political parties can lay claim to promoting enacting various bits of equality legislation that has improved the lot of gay people. In this election, though, we have more than just the three main political parties to choose to vote for. In Scotland, the SNP is tipped to sweep the board. In England and Wales Nigel Farage’s UKIP will win some seats and influence the outcome in the others, while the Greens think they can do the latter, if not the former.

UKIP’s LGBT chair Tom resigned at the end of February complaining of a lack of a ‘gay friendly’ tone at the top of the party. It’s fair to say that UKIP haven’t made a huge effort to understand gay issues, although I remember Nigel Farage ringing me up with the equal marriage bill was first mooted to ask what I thought UKIP’s stance should be. I’m sorry to say he didn’t take my advice, although I think Farage’s own personal view is rather more libertarian than that of some of his more recidivist colleagues. We should also remember that UKIP have an openly gay MEP (David Coburn in Scotland) invited Kelly Maloney to address their spring conference at the end of February to explain transgender issues to their members, and she received a standing ovation. I haven’t seen that happen at any of the other party conferences. Perhaps as well as certain UKIP supporters needing to reassess their own prejudices regarding gay people, we also need to look beyond some our prejudices regarding UKIP.

Courting the so-called ‘gay vote’, if there is such a thing, could well mean the difference between winning and losing in some marginal constituencies. But political candidates shouldn’t patronise us by treating us as a special interest group. Just like straight people, we have mortgages, we use the health service, we pay the same taxes, we have views on Europe.
In this most unpredictable of elections, your vote really could make the difference as to who forms a government the next day. So make sure you get off your pert little/big fat arse, and put the X exactly where you want to.

This article first appeared in the April issue of Attitude Magazine



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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale on Brian Haw

Iain discusses with sculptor Amanda Ward whether a statue should be built in Parliament Square to commemorate Brian Haw

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