General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 53: Lancashire

30 Apr 2015 at 22:37

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LANCASHIRE

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 9, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 9
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

Sitting MP: Jack Straw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anything could happen here but the Ashcroft poll suggests a Tory win, as do many local pundits, so I will stick with that.

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Birtwhistle (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat last time, and he has the mother of all struggles to regain it. He’s been very independent minded and that will help him, and he’s a very local man. But you’d have to bet on a Labour win here.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history, but it won’t revert to blue in 2010.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. I doubt whether they will be successful in 2010 unless they get a majority in excess of 30.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

Sitting MP: Eric Ollerenshaw (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

There’s a big LibDem vote here, and I suspect we can all guess which direction some of that will be heading in. You’d have to be brave to bet against Labour here.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

David Morris won this back from Labour after three terms. UKIP could influence the result here. The Ashcroft poll gives Labour only a 3% lead so not all is lost for the Tories, but a Labour gain is the most likely result.

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A true bellweather seat, I have a feeling Andrew Stephenson will hold on. If he increases his majority we’re looking at a Tory majority. If he loses the seat we’re looking at a Labour majority.

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Will Straw is standing here but he faces an uphill struggle against Jake Berry. I don’t see this falling to Labour unless Ed Miliband is heading for a majority. UPDATE: An April Ashcroft poll put the two parties level pegging.

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

Sitting MP: Lorraine Fulbrook (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Similar to the last seat I don’t see this falling to Labour unless they are heading for a majority. The only difference is that Lorraine Fulbrook is standing down. She’s popular and this might slightly depress the Tory vote.

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat but I can’t see the Tories winning here unless they’re heading for a good majority.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 52: Northumberland

30 Apr 2015 at 22:33

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NORTHUMBERLAND

Seats: 4
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 2

1. Berwick upon Tweed

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14116 (36.7%)
Labour: 5061 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16806 (43.7%)
BNP: 1213 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 2690 (7%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Beith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If Alan Beith had been refighting this seat I still think it would have fallen to the Tories, but seeing as he’s standing down it’s almost certain to. However, the fact that PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson has a bet on a LibDem hold makes me feel nervous. There’s still a bit of Labour vote here. If the LibDem successor to Beith can get them voting tactically, that could swing it for the Libs.

2. Blyth Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6412 (16.6%)
Labour: 17156 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 10488 (27.2%)
BNP: 1699 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.3%)
English Dem: 327 (0.8%)
Independent: 819 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 6668 (17.3%)

Sitting MP: Ronnie Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Hexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18795 (43.2%)
Labour: 8253 (19%)
Lib Dem: 13007 (29.9%)
BNP: 1205 (2.8%)
Independent: 1974 (4.5%)
Others: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5788 (13.3%)

Sitting MP: Guy Opperman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Wansbeck

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6714 (17.5%)
Labour: 17548 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 10517 (27.5%)
BNP: 1418 (3.7%)
Green: 601 (1.6%)
UKIP: 974 (2.5%)
Christian: 142 (0.4%)
Independent: 359 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7031 (18.4%)

Sitting MP: Ian Lavery (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 51: Yorkshire North

30 Apr 2015 at 16:35

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NORTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Harrogate & Knaresborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise gain for the Tories at the last election, Andrew Jones overturned a 10k majority. He will win again.

2. Richmond

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)

Sitting MP: William Hague (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Scarborough & Whitby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)

Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not quite a safe seat, but anything other than a Tory hold here is somewhat unlikely.

4. Selby & Ainsty

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Skipton & Ripon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Thirsk & Malton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)

Sitting MP: Anne McIntosh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anne McIntosh has been deselected and is threatening to stand as an independent. She’ll no doubt be bought off with the promise of a seat in the Lords, but even if she did stand again, surely the Tory majority here is too large for the seat to be lost to another party.

7. York Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)

Sitting MP: Sir Hugh Bayley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was briefly a Tory seat in the 1980s but Labour now benefits from a split opposition.

8. York Outer

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Julian Sturdy can be confident of getting an increased majority here.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 50: East Yorkshire & Humberside

30 Apr 2015 at 15:09

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

EAST YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Labour 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Beverley & Holderness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25063 (47.1%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Lib Dem: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.9%)
Green: 686 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.5%)
Independent: 225 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12987 (24.4%)

Sitting MP: Graham Stuart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

2. Brigg & Goole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19680 (44.9%)
Labour: 14533 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 6414 (14.6%)
BNP: 1498 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1749 (4%)
MAJORITY: 5147 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Percy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat since 1997 Andrew Percy did well to win such a large majority in 2010. He will be expecting his majority to fall but I think he will squeeze home. He’s been an independent minded MP and the Tories have finished first in every local election here since 2007.

3. Cleethorpes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18939 (42.1%)
Labour: 14641 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 8192 (18.2%)
UKIP: 3194 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 4298 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Martin Vickers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

UKIP have their sights set on this seat. While they may not win it they may determine its outcome, depending on which party they take most votes from. I think Martin Vickers will narrowly hang on.

4. East Yorkshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (47.5%)
Labour: 10401 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 10842 (21.2%)
BNP: 1865 (3.6%)
Green: 762 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
Others: 914 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 13486 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Greg Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Great Grimsby

Conservative: 10063 (30.5%)
Labour: 10777 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7388 (22.4%)
BNP: 1517 (4.6%)
UKIP: 2043 (6.2%)
Independent: 835 (2.5%)
Others: 331 (1%)
MAJORITY: 714 (2.2%)

Sitting MP: Austin Mitchell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A formerly very safe Labour seat this nearly went to the Tories in 2010. Ordinarily they might make a push this time, but there’s the UKIP fly in the ointment. Their candidate, Victoria Ayling, stood here for the Tories last time and is quite high profile. However, I just can’t see them taking this seat or coming anywhere near it to be frank. All I can see here is an increased Labour majority. UPDATE: An Ashcroft poll puts Labour 17 points ahead.

6. Haltemprice & Howden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24486 (50.2%)
Labour: 7630 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 12884 (26.4%)
BNP: 1583 (3.2%)
Green: 669 (1.4%)
English Dem: 1485 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11602 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: David Davis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Hull East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5667 (16.6%)
Labour: 16387 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 7790 (22.8%)
UKIP: 2745 (8%)
English Dem: 715 (2.1%)
Others: 880 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8597 (25.1%)

Sitting MP: Karl Turner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

8. Hull North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4365 (13.1%)
Labour: 13044 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 12403 (37.3%)
BNP: 1443 (4.3%)
Green: 478 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1358 (4.1%)
English Dem: 200 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 641 (1.9%)

Sitting MP: Diana Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Another seat the LibDems nearly won in 2010. They won’t come anywhere close in May.

9. Hull West & Hessle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6361 (20.2%)
Labour: 13378 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 7636 (24.2%)
BNP: 1416 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.4%)
English Dem: 876 (2.8%)
TUSC: 150 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5742 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Alan Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Probably an increased majority for Alan AJ Johnson.

10. Scunthorpe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12091 (32.6%)
Labour: 14640 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 6774 (18.3%)
BNP: 1447 (3.9%)
Green: 396 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.6%)
MAJORITY: 2549 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Nicholas Dakin (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a huge majority but it’s difficult to imagine anything different other than a Labour hold. One for the Tories to target in 2020.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 49: Yorkshire West

30 Apr 2015 at 14:25

ck in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WEST YORKSHIRE

Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 12, LibDem 2, Respect 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 16, LibDem 1, Respect 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Batley & Spen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)

Sitting MP: Mike Wood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Held by Labour since 1997 and unlikely to change hands in 2010.

2. Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

Sitting MP: David Ward (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

A dead cert Labour gain, I’d have thought, and a result which will bring joy to jewish people all over the country.

3. Bradford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)

Sitting MP: Gerry Sutcliffe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here.

4. Bradford West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)

BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (
1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)

Sitting MP: George Galloway (Respect)
Prediction: Respect hold

Given the majority in the by-election you’d think George Galloway would be a shoo-in. And the sad truth is that he almost certainly will be.

5. Calder Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Should be a Tory hold although Labour will have a good go at this seat if they can attract over a few thousand LibDem voters.

6. Colne Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)

Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

McCartney benefits from a split opposition. His majority will undoubtedly be cut, but it can only be eradicated if Labour wins over a lot of LibDem voters.

7. Dewsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: Simon Reevell (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

The Ashcroft poll in this seat puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% and UKIP on 18%. Local election results also show Labour in the lead.

8. Elmet & Rothwell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)

Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold

This one could be very close indeed, but Shelbrooke had got a good local reputation and the local elections went in his favour. I reckon he will pull through but there might only be a few hundred votes in it.

9. Halifax

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Linda Riordan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had high hopes here last time but they didn’t quite manage it. Labour will hang on with an increased majority.

10. Hemsworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)

Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Huddersfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)

Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

12. Keighley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Not a dead cert Labour gain, it has to be said, but Hopkins would be the toast of the Tory Party if he manages to hold this seat. In the Ashcroft poll UKIP scored 23% and it’s clear that a lot of these are ex Conservatives. He needs UKIP to eat into the Labour vote.

13. Leeds Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)

Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Leeds East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)

Sitting MP: George Mudie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

15. Leeds North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Sir Keith Joseph’s former seat, it hasn’t been Tory since 1992. It’s unlikely to go back to the blue corner in 2010.

16. Leeds North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)

Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

If there is any such thing as a safe LibDem seat, this is it. It’s got a split opposition and Greg Mulholland has worked the constituency like only a LibDem knows how to. I’d be astonished if he lost.

17. Leeds West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)

Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

18. Morley & Outwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Ed Balls (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority.

The Tories really thought they might win this seat last time, and they came much closer than pundits predicted. Can they oust their bogeyman this time? It’s highly unlikely. UKIP have done well here in the local elections and may well take a large number of votes from the Tories. Expect Ed Balls’ majority to rocket.

19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

20. Pudsey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Very difficult to call. The Ashcroft poll has Labour and the Tories at 36% each. There’s a substantial LibDem vote to eek out. I think this is a seat where the majority may well be under 500.

21. Shipley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)

Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

22. Wakefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A narrow majority, but Mary Creagh will be safe here, surely. Ed Miliband certainly can’t afford to lose her. UKIP have eaten into the Tory vote and may well come second. They beat the Tories in the 2014 local elections.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 48: South Yorkshire

30 Apr 2015 at 12:52

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 14
Current Political Makeup: Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 13, LibDem 1

1. Barnsley Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6388 (17.3%)
Labour: 17487 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6394 (17.3%)
BNP: 3307 (8.9%)
UKIP: 1727 (4.7%)
Independent: 732 (2%)
Others: 966 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 11093 (30%)

Sitting MP: Dan Jarvis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Barnsley East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6329 (16.5%)
Labour: 18059 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6969 (18.2%)
BNP: 3301 (8.6%)
UKIP: 1731 (4.5%)
Independent: 712 (1.9%)
Others: 1285 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 11090 (28.9%)

Sitting MP: Michael Dugher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Don Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12877 (29.7%)
Labour: 16472 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 7422 (17.1%)
BNP: 2112 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1904 (4.4%)
English Dem: 1756 (4%)
Independent: 877 (2%)
MAJORITY: 3595 (8.3%)

Sitting MP: Caroline Flint (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

Not a safe seat, but will be after May, as the LibDem vote splinters to Labour.

4. Doncaster Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10340 (24.8%)
Labour: 16569 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 8795 (21.1%)
BNP: 1762 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1421 (3.4%)
English Dem: 1816 (4.4%)
Independent: 970 (2.3%)
Others: 72 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6229 (14.9%)

Sitting MP: Rosie Winterton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Doncaster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8728 (21%)
Labour: 19637 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6174 (14.9%)
BNP: 2818 (6.8%)
UKIP: 1797 (4.3%)
English Dem: 2148 (5.2%)
TUSC: 181 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10909 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Ed Miliband (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Penistone & Stocksbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14516 (31.2%)
Labour: 17565 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 9800 (21.1%)
BNP: 2207 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1936 (4.2%)
English Dem: 492 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 3049 (6.6%)

Sitting MP: Angela Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, but again, the Labour majority is likely to increase.

7. Rother Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13281 (28.4%)
Labour: 19147 (40.9%)
Lib Dem: 8111 (17.3%)
BNP: 3606 (7.7%)
UKIP: 2613 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 5866 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Kevin Barron (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

8. Rotherham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6279 (16.7%)
Labour: 16741 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10.4%)
UKIP: 2220 (5.9%)
Independent: 2366 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 10462 (27.9%)

BY ELECTION
Sarah Champion (Labour) 9866 46.3% (1.7%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4648 21.8% (
15.9%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1804 8.5% (-1.9%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1778 8.3% (n/a)
Simon Wilson (Conservative) 1157 5.4% (-11.3%)
David Wildgoose (English Democrats) 703 3.3% (n/a)
Simon Copley (Independent) 582 2.7% (n/a)
Michael Beckett (Liberal Democrat) 451 2.1% (-13.9%)
Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 1.2% (n/a)
Paul Dickson (Independent) 51 0.2% (n/a)
Clint Bristow (no description) 29 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 5218 24.5%
Turnout 33.9% (-25.1%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Champion (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

UKIP think they have a chance here, but if they do, they will need to do much better than they did in the by-election. Unlikely.

9. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4468 (11.5%)
Labour: 21400 (55%)
Lib Dem: 7768 (20%)
BNP: 3026 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1596 (4.1%)
TUSC: 656 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 13632 (35%)

Sitting MP: David Blunkett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat., David Blunkett is standing down and will be replaced by Harry Harpham.

10. Sheffield Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4206 (10.1%)
Labour: 17138 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 16973 (40.9%)
BNP: 903 (2.2%)
Green: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 165 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Paul Blomfield (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems just failed to take this seat last time. Their only hope this time (and it’s not much of one) is for Labour to put all their resources into unseating Nick Clegg.

11. Sheffield Hallam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12040 (23.5%)
Labour: 8228 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 27324 (53.4%)
Green: 919 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.3%)
English Dem: 586 (1.1%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 429 (0.8%)
Others: 164 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15284 (29.9%)

Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic. Yet. If the LibDems are obliterated, then Clegg will probably be obliterated too, but if they retain around half their seats, this ought to be one of them. Or will there be a Clegg effect, which means the LibDems will fare worse here than elsewhere.

12. Sheffield Heeley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7081 (17.3%)
Labour: 17409 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 11602 (28.4%)
BNP: 2260 (5.5%)
Green: 989 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1530 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5807 (14.2%)

Sitting MP: Meg Munn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

13. Sheffield South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7202 (17.4%)
Labour: 20169 (48.7%)
Lib Dem: 9664 (23.3%)
BNP: 2345 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1889 (4.6%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10505 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: Clive Betts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Wentworth & Dearne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7396 (17.6%)
Labour: 21316 (50.6%)
Lib Dem: 6787 (16.1%)
BNP: 3189 (7.6%)
UKIP: 3418 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 13920 (33.1%)

Sitting MP: John Healey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC 97.3: Interview with Brian Coleman

Brian Coleman tells Iain Boris Johnson is too lazy to be Prime Minister, and he reacts to his expulsion from the Conservative Party.

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 47: Lincolnshire

30 Apr 2015 at 11:05

in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LINCOLNSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1, UKIP 1
Final Prediction: Con 6, Lab 1

1. Boston & Skegness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21325 (49.4%)
Labour: 8899 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 6371 (14.8%)
BNP: 2278 (5.3%)
UKIP: 4081 (9.5%)
Independent: 171 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12426 (28.8%)

Sitting MP: Mark Simmonds (Con)
Prediction: *UKIP
gain
Final Prediction: Conservative hold*

This is one of UKIP’s top targets. On the face of it, it’s a safe Tory seat, but a Survation poll in the constituency in September showed UKIP way ahead. Admittedly the sample size was only 596, but it will have shocked the local Conservative Party. The UKIP candidate is 22 year old Robin Hunter-Clarke. Strange to pick such an untested candidate, but at least he’s local. Mark Simmonds is standing down, complaining he can’t live on £120,000. If UKIP are to make a breakthrough, it might well be here. UPDATE: In the latest Ashcroft poll the Conservatives are three points ahead here. I am hearing that the UKIP campaign has not gone well. UKIP may still pull through but I now have my doubts.

2. Gainsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24266 (49.3%)
Labour: 7701 (15.6%)
Lib Dem: 13707 (27.8%)
BNP: 1512 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2065 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10559 (21.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Edward Leigh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Grantham & Stamford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26552 (50.3%)
Labour: 9503 (18%)
Lib Dem: 11726 (22.2%)
BNP: 2485 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1604 (3%)
Others: 929 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 14826 (28.1%)

Sitting MP: Nicholas Boles (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Lincoln

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17163 (37.5%)
Labour: 16105 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.2%)
BNP: 1367 (3%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Dem: 604 (1.3%)
Independent: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1058 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

UKIP is hurting the Tories throughout Lincolnshire. In most of the other seats the majorities are large enough to cope with that, but not in Lincoln. This seat was Labour throughout the 13 Blair/Brown years and is likely to return that way in May.

5. Louth & Horncastle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25065 (49.6%)
Labour: 8760 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 11194 (22.2%)
BNP: 2199 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2183 (4.3%)
English Dem: 517 (1%)
Others: 576 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13871 (27.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Tapsell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Sir Peter Tapsell is standing down. Victoria Atkins will succeed him.

6. Sleaford & North Hykeham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30719 (51.6%)
Labour: 10051 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 10814 (18.2%)
BNP: 1977 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2163 (3.6%)
Others: 3806 (6.4%)
MAJORITY: 19905 (33.4%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Phillips (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. South Holland & the Deepings

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29639 (59.1%)
Labour: 7024 (14%)
Lib Dem: 7759 (15.5%)
BNP: 1796 (3.6%)
Green: 724 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3246 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 21880 (43.6%)

Sitting MP: John Hayes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Hosts a Phone in Dealing With Grief

A month after his mother died, Iain asks why we find bereavement so difficult.

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 46: Nottinghamshire

30 Apr 2015 at 10:31

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 9

1. Ashfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Quite how the LibDems nearly won this seat in 2010 I do not know. They went from 14% of the vote to 33%. The were going to field the same candidate but he has been arrested on suspicion of sexual offences. However, even if they throw the kitchen sink at Gloria de Piero I don’t think it will be enough. I expect her majority to increase by several thousand.

2. Bassetlaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)

Sitting MP: John Mann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Broxtowe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Another one of those seats where Labour has to win if Ed Miliband has any hope of gaining any sort power. Anna Soubry has been a star of the 2010-15 Parliament and it will be sad to see her lose.

4. Gedling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)

Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will win again, but he will still have a few butterflies at the count.

5. Mansfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour are said to be nervous about UKIP eating into their vote here, but it is difficult to think this seat could return anything other than a Labour MP.

6. Newark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Nottingham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)

Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Chris Leslie will be a big player in Labour’s future whatever the result of the next election. He will win again here.

8. Nottingham North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

9. Nottingham South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Much will depend here on how the LibDem vote splinters. There is a strong Tory vote here and it should be remembered that until 1992 this was a Tory seat. The LibDem vote rose last time because of the student vote.

10. Rushcliffe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)

Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

11. Sherwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Mark Spencer did brilliantly to regain a seat the Tories last won in 1987 but it’s highly doubtful he can hang on to it in 2015.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Duke Safo

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 45: Warwickshire

30 Apr 2015 at 09:24

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WARWICKSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 2

1. Kenilworth & Southam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25945 (53.6%)
Labour: 6949 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 13393 (27.7%)
Green: 568 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1214 (2.5%)
Independent: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12552 (25.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Wright (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. North Warwickshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18993 (40.2%)
Labour: 18939 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.8%)
English Dem: 411 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 54 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Dan Byles (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Dan Byles is standing down, presumably because he saw the writing on the wall. Whatever chance the Tories had of retaining this most marginal of marginals probably disappeared with that decision.

3. Nuneaton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18536 (41.5%)
Labour: 16467 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 6846 (15.3%)
BNP: 2797 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 2069 (4.6%)

Sitting MP: Marcus Jones (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

UKIP didn’t stand here last time. The result in 2015 might well depend on whose votes they take. And Marcus Jones will know that.

4. Rugby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20901 (44%)
Labour: 14901 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 9434 (19.9%)
BNP: 1375 (2.9%)
Green: 451 (1%)
UKIP: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 6000 (12.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Pawsey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This was a Labour seat between 1997 and 2005 but boundary changes shifted it in favour of the Tories. It’s likely to remain that way unless Ed Miliband gets a majority of 30-40.

5. Stratford on Avon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26052 (51.5%)
Labour: 4809 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 14706 (29.1%)
BNP: 1097 (2.2%)
Green: 527 (1%)
UKIP: 1846 (3.7%)
English Dem: 473 (0.9%)
Independent: 1032 (2%)
MAJORITY: 11346 (22.4%)

Sitting MP: Nadhim Zahawi (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Warwick & Leamington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20876 (42.6%)
Labour: 17363 (35.4%)
Lib Dem: 8977 (18.3%)
Green: 693 (1.4%)
UKIP: 926 (1.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3513 (7.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris White (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The Ashcroft constituency poll points to a Tory hold. Looking at other factors like local election results, I’d find that difficult to argue with.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC 97.3 Book Club: Iain talks to Nigel Farage

UKIP Leader Nigel Farage tells Iain Dale on LBC 97.3 about being locked in a pub 'for his own safety' on the campaign trail in Scotland. After his event was gatecrashed by 'Scottish nationalists'.

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 44: Shropshire

29 Apr 2015 at 22:31

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

SHROPSHIRE

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Ludlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25720 (52.8%)
Labour: 3272 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 15971 (32.8%)
BNP: 1016 (2.1%)
Green: 447 (0.9%)
UKIP: 2127 (4.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9749 (20%)

Sitting MP: Philip Dunne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. North Shropshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26692 (51.5%)
Labour: 9406 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 10864 (20.9%)
BNP: 1667 (3.2%)
Green: 808 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2432 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 15828 (30.5%)

Sitting MP: Owen Paterson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Shrewsbury & Atcham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23313 (43.9%)
Labour: 10915 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 15369 (29%)
BNP: 1168 (2.2%)
Green: 565 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1627 (3.1%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7944 (15%)

Sitting MP: Daniel Kawczynski (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This could be a four way marginal. UKIP’s deputy chairman, the impressive Suzanne Evans is standing here and UKIP think they could have a real impact on the result here. Labour are now in third place in a seat they held between 1997 and 2005.

4. Telford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14996 (36.3%)
Labour: 15974 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6399 (15.5%)
BNP: 1513 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2428 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 978 (2.4%)

Sitting MP: David Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very narrow hold for Labour last time. This is a seat where the Labour vote has plummeted from 58% to 39% since 1997. However, if the Tories didn’t win in 2010, can they really pull it off this time, especially given the interference of UKIP?

5. The Wrekin

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (47.7%)
Labour: 12472 (27.1%)
Lib Dem: 8019 (17.4%)
BNP: 1505 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9450 (20.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Pritchard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC Book Club: Iain talks to Michael Dobbs

Iain talks to Michael Dobbs about his latest novel and much more besides.

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