General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 58: Greater Manchester

1 May 2015 at 22:42

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

GREATER MANCHESTER

Seats: 27
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 22, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 23, UKIP 1
Final Prediction: Con 2, Lab 24, LibDem 1

1. Altrincham & Sale West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24176 (48.9%)
Labour: 11073 (22.4%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (25.5%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 11595 (23.5%)

Sitting MP: Graham Brady (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Ashton under Lyne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9510 (24.7%)
Labour: 18604 (48.4%)
Lib Dem: 5703 (14.8%)
BNP: 2929 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: David Heyes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Blackley & Broughton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6260 (18.3%)
Labour: 18563 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 4861 (14.2%)
BNP: 2469 (7.2%)
UKIP: 894 (2.6%)
Respect: 996 (2.9%)
Christian: 161 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12303 (36%)

Sitting MP: Graham Stringer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

4. Bolton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15786 (36.5%)
Labour: 19870 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.2%)
Others: 182 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4084 (9.4%)

Sitting MP: David Crausby (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat this time.

5. Bolton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10148 (25.6%)
Labour: 18782 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 6289 (15.9%)
BNP: 2012 (5.1%)
Green: 614 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.9%)
Others: 195 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8634 (21.8%)

Sitting MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Bolton West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18235 (38.3%)
Labour: 18327 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 8177 (17.2%)
Green: 545 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 137 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Julie Hilling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very close last time, and I did wonder if this might be a seat where UKIP might take votes off Labour. However, if the Ashcroft poll for Bolton West is right, UKIP are taking far more votes from the LibDems and Tories.

7. Bury North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18070 (40.2%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.9%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2243 (5%)

Sitting MP: David Nuttall (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This one could go either way. David Nuttall’s strong Eurosceptism may mean that the UKIP vote here is depressed, but will that be enough to save him?

8. Bury South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16216 (33.6%)
Labour: 19508 (40.4%)
Lib Dem: 8796 (18.2%)
BNP: 1743 (3.6%)
Green: 493 (1%)
UKIP: 1017 (2.1%)
English Dem: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3292 (6.8%)

Sitting MP: Ivan Lewis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ivan Lewis should be safe here.

9. Cheadle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21445 (40.8%)
Labour: 4920 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 24717 (47.1%)
UKIP: 1430 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 3272 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Hunter (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Apart from a narrow majority in 1997 of 33, the LibDems have had a majority of three or four thousand in this seat ever since. I had predicted the LibDems to hold this but I now think it is increasingly unlikely. The Tory vote share here in the last four elections has been 44, 42, 40, 41. If you add together the Labour and LibDem vote share in the last four elections you get 54, 56, 58, 56. It seems highly likely that there will be a shift from the LibDems to Labour here, thus letting the Tory candidate through the middle.

10. Denton & Reddish

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9360 (24.9%)
Labour: 19191 (51%)
Lib Dem: 6727 (17.9%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.5%)
Independent: 297 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 9831 (26.1%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

11. Hazel Grove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14114 (33.6%)
Labour: 5234 (12.5%)
Lib Dem: 20485 (48.8%)
UKIP: 2148 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6371 (15.2%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Stunell (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Final Prediction: LibDem hold

LibDem majority has fallen in every election since 1997 but the Tories haven’t been able to capitalise. It may well be that UKIP stops them from doing so in May. I find this one of the most difficult LibDem seats to call. Andrew Stunell’s incumbency vote will go, and the fact that the LibDems have chosen a successor from London won’t help them, especially as the Tory candidate is from the area. I’m going to go for a narrow Tory win, based on a general collapse in the LibDem vote, but this is one of my least confident calls, I am happy to admit.

12. Heywood & Middleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12528 (27.2%)
Labour: 18499 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10474 (22.7%)
BNP: 3239 (7%)
UKIP: 1215 (2.6%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5971 (12.9%)

BY-ELECTION
Liz McInnes (Labour) 11633 40.9% (0.8%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11016 38.7% (
36.1%)
Iain Gartside (Conservative) 3496 12.3% (-14.9%)
Anthony Smith (Liberal Democrat) 1457 5.1% (-17.6%)
Abi Jackson (Green) 870 3.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 617 2.2% (-10.7%)
Turnout 36% (-21.5%)

Sitting MP: Liz McInnes (Lab)
Prediction: UKIP gain
Final Prediction: Labour hold

UKIP came within an inch of winning the by-election last November and have been quietly pouring huge resources into this seat ever since. Their persistence may pay off in May if they can persuade Tory voters to vote tactically. If not, my face will be covered with much egg.

13. Leigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9284 (20.9%)
Labour: 21295 (48%)
Lib Dem: 8049 (18.2%)
BNP: 2724 (6.1%)
UKIP: 1535 (3.5%)
Christian: 137 (0.3%)
Independent: 988 (2.2%)
Others: 320 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12011 (27.1%)

Sitting MP: Andy Burnham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Makerfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8210 (18.8%)
Labour: 20700 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 7082 (16.2%)
BNP: 3229 (7.4%)
Independent: 3424 (7.8%)
Others: 1126 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12490 (28.5%)

Sitting MP: Yvonne Fovargue (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

15. Manchester Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4704 (11.8%)
Labour: 21059 (52.7%)
Lib Dem: 10620 (26.6%)
BNP: 1636 (4.1%)
Green: 915 (2.3%)
UKIP: 607 (1.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
Others: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10439 (26.1%)

BY ELECTION
Lucy Powell (Labour) 11507 69.1% (16.4%)
Marc Ramsbottom (Liberal Democrat) 1571 9.4% (-17.2%)
Matthew Sephton (Conservative) 754 4.5% (-7.3%)
Chris Cassidy (UKIP) 749 4.5% (
3.0%)
Tom Dylan (Green) 652 3.9% (1.6%)
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP) 492 3% (-1.1%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 308 1.9% (n/a)
Alex Davidson (TUSC) 220 1.3% (n/a)
Catherine Higgins (Respect) 182 1.1% (n/a)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 78 0.5% (n/a)
Lee Holmes (Peoples Democratic) 71 0.4% (n/a)
Peter Clifford (Communist League) 64 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 9936 59.7% (
33.6%)
Turnout 18.2% (-28.5%)

Sitting MP: Lucy Powell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

16. Manchester Gorton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4224 (11%)
Labour: 19211 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 12508 (32.6%)
Green: 1048 (2.7%)
Respect: 507 (1.3%)
Christian: 254 (0.7%)
TUSC: 337 (0.9%)
Others: 236 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6703 (17.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Kaufman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

17. Manchester Withington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5005 (11.1%)
Labour: 18216 (40.5%)
Lib Dem: 20110 (44.7%)
Green: 798 (1.8%)
UKIP: 698 (1.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1894 (4.2%)

Sitting MP: John Leech (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

The Ashcroft poll was Lab 56%, LD 22%, Green 10%, Con 7%, UKIP 4%. Surely John Leech can’t overcome those sort of figures?

18. Oldham East & Saddleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11773 (26.4%)
Labour: 14186 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 14083 (31.6%)
BNP: 2546 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1720 (3.9%)
Christian: 212 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 103 (0.2%)

BY-ELECTION
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) 14718 42.1% (10.2%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) 11160 31.9% (
0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) 4481 12.8% (-13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 2029 5.8% (1.9%)
Derek Adams (BNP) 1560 4.5% (-1.2%)
Peter Allen (Green) 530 1.5% (n/a)
Nick the Flying Brick Delves (Loony) 145 0.4% (n/a)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) 144 0.4% (n/a)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 96 0.3% (n/a)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis) 67 0.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 3558 10.2% (
10%)

Sitting MP: Debbie Abrahams (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A genuine three way marginal. This is one of those north west seats where UKIP could take a lot of votes away from Labour to the benefit of the Conservatives. I’m told the LibDems have a very strong party machine here. Is it impossible to imagine a LibDem win? Probably, but if the Tories decide to vote tactically, who knows? The safest prediction, though, is surely a Labour hold.

19. Oldham West & Royton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10151 (23.7%)
Labour: 19503 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 8193 (19.1%)
BNP: 3049 (7.1%)
UKIP: 1387 (3.2%)
Respect: 627 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9352 (21.8%)

Sitting MP: Michael Meacher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

20. Rochdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8305 (18.1%)
Labour: 16699 (36.4%)
Lib Dem: 15810 (34.4%)
UKIP: 1999 (4.4%)
Independent: 313 (0.7%)
Others: 2781 (6.1%)
MAJORITY: 889 (1.9%)

Sitting MP: Simon Danczuk (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems have apparently imploded here. The former seat of Liz Lynne & Cyril Smith, it’s unlikely the LibDems will be able to reverse the 2010 result this time.

21. Salford & Eccles

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8497 (20.5%)
Labour: 16655 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10930 (26.3%)
BNP: 2632 (6.3%)
UKIP: 1084 (2.6%)
English Dem: 621 (1.5%)
TUSC: 730 (1.8%)
Independent: 384 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5725 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: Hazel Blears (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

22. Stalybridge & Hyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13445 (32.9%)
Labour: 16189 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 6965 (17%)
BNP: 2259 (5.5%)
Green: 679 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1342 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 2744 (6.7%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Reynolds is a rising star in the Labour firmament and will hold this semi-marginal seat.

23. Stockport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9913 (25.3%)
Labour: 16697 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9778 (25%)
BNP: 1201 (3.1%)
Green: 677 (1.7%)
UKIP: 862 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 6784 (17.3%)

Sitting MP: Ann Coffey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was a Tory seat through much of the 1980s, held by Tony Favell, but Labour has managed to turn this into a relatively safe seat for them courtesy of a split opposition vote.

24. Stretford & Urmston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12886 (28.7%)
Labour: 21821 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 7601 (16.9%)
Green: 916 (2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.4%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 8935 (19.9%)

Sitting MP: Kate Green (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

25. Wigan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10917 (24.7%)
Labour: 21404 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (15.4%)
BNP: 2506 (5.7%)
UKIP: 2516 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 10487 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Lisa Nandy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

26. Worsley & Eccles South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13555 (32.5%)
Labour: 17892 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 6883 (16.5%)
UKIP: 2037 (4.9%)
English Dem: 1334 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 4337 (10.4%)

Sitting MP: Barbara Keeley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

27. Wythenshawe & Sale East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
TUSC: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)

BY ELECTION
Mike Kane (Labour): 13,261
John Bickley (UKIP): 4,301
Reverend Daniel Critchlow (Conservatives): 3,479
Mary Di Mauro (Lib Dem): 1,176
Nigel Woodcock (Green Party): 748
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP): 708
Captain Chaplington-Smythe (Monster Raving Loony): 288
Turnout: 28%

Sitting MP: Michael Kane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 57: West Midlands

1 May 2015 at 22:16

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WEST MIDLANDS

Seats 19
Current Political Makeup: Lab 11, Con 7, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 13, Con 6
Final Prediction: Lab 12, Con 6, UKIP 1

1. Aldridge & Brownhills

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22913 (59.3%)
Labour: 7647 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 6833 (17.7%)
Green: 847 (2.2%)
Christian: 394 (1%)
MAJORITY: 15266 (39.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Richard Shepherd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Coventry North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9609 (22.1%)
Labour: 21384 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7210 (16.6%)
BNP: 1863 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1291 (3%)
Others: 2026 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 11775 (27.1%)

Sitting MP: Bob Ainsworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Coventry North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13648 (29.3%)
Labour: 19936 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8344 (17.9%)
BNP: 1666 (3.6%)
Green: 497 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1295 (2.8%)
Independent: 640 (1.4%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 6288 (13.5%)

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Robinson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Coventry South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15352 (33.4%)
Labour: 19197 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 8278 (18%)
Green: 639 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.8%)
Others: 691 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3845 (8.4%)

Sitting MP: Jim Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The most marginal of the Coventry seats but it’s difficult to imagine anything other than a Labour win here.

14. Dudley North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14274 (37%)
Labour: 14923 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 4066 (10.5%)
BNP: 1899 (4.9%)
UKIP: 3267 (8.5%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 649 (1.7%)

Sitting MP: Ian Austin (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
Revised Prediction: UKIP gain

Ian Austin managed to hold off a strong Tory challenge in 2010 and should do so again if he can benefit from the decline in LibDem voters. However, polls show UKIP doing well here and they have opened a large campaigns office. UPDATE: This was UKIP’s best performance in a Labour seat and their council election performance has been very strong. A lot depends on how the Tory vote holds up. If it peals away to UKIP, they win. If it doesn’t, Ian Austin will pull through. Everyone I talk to in UKIP circles reckons this seat is almost a dead cert for them. I wouldn’t go that far, but all indications are that they have the Big Mo.

15. Dudley South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16450 (43.1%)
Labour: 12594 (33%)
Lib Dem: 5989 (15.7%)
UKIP: 3132 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 3856 (10.1%)

Sitting MP: Chris Kelly (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Chris Kelly is retiring after only one term and is succeeded by Mike Wood. This has increased the chances of Labour taking the seat. The swing in 2010 was higher than the national average which could mean one of two things – one, that there are demogrphic moves afoot, or that this seat is more volatile than others.

16. Halesowen & Rowley Regis

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18115 (41.2%)
Labour: 16092 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 6515 (14.8%)
UKIP: 2824 (6.4%)
Independent: 433 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2023 (4.6%)

Sitting MP: James Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Labour need to win this seat to become the largest party in the House of Commons.

17. Meriden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26956 (51.7%)
Labour: 10703 (20.5%)
Lib Dem: 9278 (17.8%)
BNP: 2511 (4.8%)
Green: 678 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1378 (2.6%)
Others: 658 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 16253 (31.2%)

Sitting MP: Caroline Spelman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

18. Solihull

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23460 (42.6%)
Labour: 4891 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 23635 (42.9%)
BNP: 1624 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1200 (2.2%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 175 (0.3%)

Sitting MP: Lorely Burt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Lorely Burt did very well to hang onto her seat last time (she won it in 2005 with a majority of 279) and confounded all expectations. The Labour vote has gone down from 25% to 8% and if Labour takes just a thousand votes from the LibDem the Conservatives will win a seat many think they should never have lost.

19. Stourbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20153 (42.7%)
Labour: 14989 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 7733 (16.4%)
BNP: 1696 (3.6%)
Green: 394 (0.8%)
UKIP: 2103 (4.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5164 (10.9%)

Sitting MP: Margot James (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A fantastic result for Margot James last time. Surely she will pull through again.

20. Sutton Coldfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27303 (54%)
Labour: 10298 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 9117 (18%)
BNP: 1749 (3.5%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1587 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 17005 (33.6%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Mitchell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

21. Walsall North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12395 (34.3%)
Labour: 13385 (37%)
Lib Dem: 4754 (13.1%)
BNP: 2930 (8.1%)
UKIP: 1737 (4.8%)
Christian: 144 (0.4%)
Others: 842 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 990 (2.7%)

Sitting MP: David Winnick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

I do wonder if this is one of those seats where UKIP may eat into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. If they do, David Winnick could be in trouble.

22. Walsall South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14456 (35.4%)
Labour: 16211 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 5880 (14.4%)
UKIP: 3449 (8.4%)
Christian: 482 (1.2%)
Others: 404 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1755 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Valerie Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Difficult to imagine this seat going Tory.

23. Warley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9484 (24.8%)
Labour: 20240 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 5929 (15.5%)
UKIP: 2617 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 10756 (28.1%

Sitting MP: John Spellar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

24. West Bromwich East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10961 (28.9%)
Labour: 17657 (46.5%)
Lib Dem: 4993 (13.2%)
BNP: 2205 (5.8%)
UKIP: 984 (2.6%)
English Dem: 1150 (3%)
MAJORITY: 6696 (17.6%)

Sitting MP: Tom Watson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

25. West Bromwich West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10612 (29.3%)
Labour: 16263 (45%)
Lib Dem: 4336 (12%)
BNP: 3394 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1566 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 5651 (15.6%)

Sitting MP: Adrian Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

26. Wolverhampton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11964 (34.3%)
Labour: 14448 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 4711 (13.5%)
BNP: 2296 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.3%)
Others: 337 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2484 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Emma Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Used to be a Tory seat and if there’s a Tory majority it could be again. But only then.

27. Wolverhampton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9912 (28.6%)
Labour: 16505 (47.6%)
Lib Dem: 5277 (15.2%)
UKIP: 2675 (7.7%)
Independent: 338 (1%)
MAJORITY: 6593 (19%)

Sitting MP: Pat McFadden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

28. Wolverhampton South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16344 (40.7%)
Labour: 15653 (39%)
Lib Dem: 6430 (16%)
UKIP: 1487 (3.7%)
Others: 246 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 691 (1.7%)

Sitting MP: Paul Uppal (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

The former Labour MP for the area Rob Marris is standing again. He ought to be a dead cert retread.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 56: Scotland

1 May 2015 at 22:05

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

In mid March I completely revised my original January predictions where I just couldn’t see how the SNP could maintain their momentum. My SNP prediction rose from 18 to 41 seats. You can see the March post HERE. Since then the SNP’s poll position has got even stronger with some polls even predicting a clean sweep of all 59 seats. I don’t do that, but my forecast has now increased the SNP seats from 41 to 54

Back in January I predicted Labour 33, SNP 18, LibDems 5, Conservatives 3. Since then polls have shown a consistent lead for the SNP. This has risen from around 42-27 to now 53-17, with the Conservatives on around 13-15%. When I first did these predictions I found it more or less impossible to get the SNP above 18 seats. I found it very difficult to believe they could overturn Labour majorties of 15,000 or more. But when you study the polls in detail, and especially the numerous Lord Ashcroft individual constituency polls, which hadn’t been published in January, it is clear that a major shift is happening and that Labour support is collapsing to the SNP. Therefore it is natural to want to reappraise each constituency in detail, and see where we end up. We should bear in mind that the Ashcroft polls only name parties and not candidates, so it is reasonable to assume that in some constituencies personal votes and name recognition will play a role. This is the Liberal Democrat hope. It may save one or two of their MPs but not many.

One other thing to mention from the Ashcroft polls is that the SNP does disproportionately well among younger people and far less well among older voters, but it is they who are more likely to turn out. However, if turnout is high that will help the SNP as they will have mobilised their vote. Indeed, they now have the manpower to do just that with their rising membership. In Jo Swinson’s seat I am told they have 1,000 new members. If they can be mobilised to get out the SNP vote on election day that will make a tremendous difference.

So the totals are in this final prediction…

SNP 54
Labour 4
LibDem 1
Conservative 0

I have highlighted in bold the seats where the prediction has changed since March.

SCOTLAND

Highlands & Islands

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: LibDem 4, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: LibDem 3, SNP 3
Revised Prediction: LibDem 2, SNP 4
Final Prediction: LibDem 1, SNP 5

1. Orkney & Shetland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)

Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

If the LibDems were reduced to two seats, this would be one of the two. A real LibDem stronghold.

2. Na h-Eileanan an lar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)

Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Smallest constituency in the country. Was a Labour seat until 2005.

3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)

Sitting MP: John Thurso (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Both Labour and the SNP think they can win this seat. Highland voters tend to give an incumbent a bigger personal vote than elsewhere and John Thurso is a very popular MP. If anyone can hold a LibDem seat on the Scottish mainland he can. UPDATE: But all the polls point to him now losing.

4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)

Sitting MP: Charles Kennedy (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Charles Kennedy surely has to be safe here. The Ashcroft poll puts doubt in my mind, but I think the Kennedy name will see him through. UPDATE: I think Charles Kennedy could be toast now. The SNP have moved so far ahead, even the Kennedy name may not be able to save him now.

5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)

Sitting MP: Danny Alexander (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

This seat has unsurprisingly received a lot of Treasury ‘pork’ and the LibDems are putting huge financial resources into it. However, the SNP think it is theirs for the taking and have selected the local council leader Drew Hendry to fight it. Why? They got 51% of the vote in the Holyrood election with the LibDems only scoring 12%. An ICM poll also had the LibDems down 25% and them coming in third place. If this really happened it would evidence of a complete meltdown for the LibDems in Scotland. However the poll size was only 309 so I don’t set much store by that. UPDATE: Everything now points to Danny Alexander being in real trouble here. There’s a lot of pork barrel politics going on in this seat, but it now looks doubtful that anything can save Danny unless the opposition splits three ways as it did in 2010.

6. Moray

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)

Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

No problems for the Westminster leader (for now!) of the SNP.

Scotland – North East

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 2, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 1, SNP 4
Revised Prediction: Con 1, Lab 1, SNP 4
Final Prediction SNP 6

7. Banff & Buchan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)

Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

An easy win for the SNP here.

8. Gordon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Bruce (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain

Sir Malcolm Bruce is standing down. He has benefited from a split opposition in the past but the SNP have been making headway here, and few observers think the LibDems will hold off their challenge. The LibDems’ best strategy is to court tactical votes from Labour and the Tories to keep out Alex Salmond, assuming he does decide to stand here. According to THIS article, that’s just what they are trying.

9. Aberdeen North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)

Sitting MP: Frank Doran (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

A big majority, but the popular Frank Doran is standing down and the SNP have high hopes of taking this seat. They have never done especially well in Aberdeen, but that could change in May. One to watch.

10. Aberdeen South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)

Sitting MP: Dame Anne Begg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

This used to be a Tory seat and they still retain a substantial vote. However, with the probably collapse of the LibDem vote, Labour’s majority should increase here. UPDATE: The SNP tide will sweep Dame Anne away I’m afraid. She will be a loss to Parliament.

11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Sir Robert Smith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Final Prediction: SNP gain

This may well turn into a three way marginal, with the Tories and the SNP trying to oust Sir Robert Smith. The LibDem majority was halved last time, and it’s very possible to see how rises in the Labour and SNP votes could see this seat return to the Conservative fold. But if the SNP do as the current polls suggest they will, don’t rule out an astonishing SNP gain here. UPDATE: A LibDem poll here by Survation (naming the candidates) shows the LibDems ahead on 30% with the Tories on 26% and the SNP on 25%. The Ashcroft poll showed a massive lead for the SNP, but didn’t name the candidates. Labour are nowhere. This seat could go SNP, but I’m sticking with my original prediction. I just don’t see the LibDems hanging on here. UPDATE: Changed my mind. I should have stuck by the Ashcroft poll.

12. Angus

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)

Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

I can’t see anything other than an SNP hold here, despite the Tories being a strong second.

Scotland – Central

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 1, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 0, SNP 5
Revised Prediction: Lab 0, SNP 5
Final Prediction: Lab 0, SNP 5

13. Dundee East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)

Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

No problems for Stewart Hosie here.

14. Dundee West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)

Sitting MP: Jim McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Labour has a good majority here but Dundee has always been susceptible to the allure of the SNP and I think they have a good chance of winning here. There are rumours that Jim McGovern is being pressured to stand aside for a new candidate.

15. Perth & North Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)

Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.

16. Argyll & Bute

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)

Sitting MP: Alan Reid (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain

This is a genuine four way marginal now. However, Labour has no record locally and it’s likely their vote and indeed the LibDem vote may splinter to the SNP. If the Tories can take votes from the LibDems they may have a vague possibility of winning here, but my gut instinct is that the SNP is the more likely winner.My original prediction last year was that Alan Reid might hold this, or it would go to Labour. I have revised my view based on more research.

17. Stirling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)

Sitting MP: Anne McGuire (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

An interesting seat, the more so since the popular Ann McGuire is standing down. The Tories haven’t won here since Michael Forsyth unexpectedly held the seat in 1992. They won’t this time either. They might not, but the SNP might well come from third place to win this seat.

Scotland – Fife

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 3, LibDem 1, SNP 2
Revised Prediction: Lab 1, LibDem 1, SNP 4
Final Prediction: SNP 6

18. Ochil & South Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Banks (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

If the SNP is to break through, then this is a must-win seat for them.

19. North East Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)

*Sitting MP: Sir Menzies Campbell (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

Last year I reckoned this seat would definitely remain LibDem. Now I am not so sure. There has been a movement from the LibDems to the Tories in Scotland. At the moment it wouldn’t be enough to gift the Tories the seat, but they will be putting in a lot of effort here. The big question is if the SNP can also capitalise on ex LibDem voters here. At the moment I’’m keeping this as a LibDem hold but this is one to watch before the election. UPDATE: If Sir Ming was standing again I would be 100% confident that he would hold this seat. But he’s not. However, the SNP have such a mountain to climb here I just can’t believe they can overturn a majority of this size in this seat. They would have to take votes from both Labour and Conservative in substantial numbers to do so. I reckon they have a 25% chance. UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll puts the SNP 13% ahead. That’s enough to make me change my mind.

20. Glenrothes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)

Sitting MP: Lindsay Roy (Lab)
Prediction: Lab hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATED: The Ashcroft poll shows the SNP on the march in Fife in general. Lindsay Roy’s successor will do well to see them off.

21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: Well, it was. If Gordon Brown was standing again Labour may have had a chance. The SNP are now 6% ahead here according to an Ashcroft poll.

22. Dunfermline West & Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)

Sitting MP: Thomas Docherty (Lab)
Prediction: Lab hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Not a massive majority, but with the LibDems in second place it’s hard to believe that there can be any other outcome here other than a Labour hold. UPDATE: This is one of those seats that if the polls are right the SNP would take.

23. Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Eric Joyce (Ind, formerly Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Eric Joyce’s chickens may well come home to roost for Labour. Even thought there is a big Labour majority here, the SNP are in a good second place and I would expect the Labout vote to go down to below 35%, allowing the SNP to cut through.

Scotland – Edinburgh

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Labour 6, SNP 3
Revised Prediction: Lab 2, SNP 7
Final Prediction: SNP 9

34. Linlithgow & Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)

Sitting MP: Michael Connarty (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Should be safe, but isn’t…

35. Livingston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)

Sitting MP: Graeme Morrice (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

36. Edinburgh West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Michael Crockart (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain

Frankly this could go anywhere. I’m not sure the SNP can spring from fourth to first place, but it’s perfectly possible to se a scenario where they could. It really depends how the LibDem cookie crumbles, and crumble it surely will. I had predicted a LibDem hold here, but now I am not so sure. Their majority went down by 10,000 last time and they’be been obliterated in recent elections in Edinburgh.

37. Edinburgh South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)

Sitting MP: Alistair Darling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Alistair Darling may be retiring, but it’s difficult to see a result here that isn’t a Labour win. UPDATED: How tim changes things. If Darling were staying things might be different but the Ashcroft poll makes it difficult to predict anything but a Labour loss to the SNP.

38. Edinburgh North & Leith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Lazarowicz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

This seat has a small majority but because it is the LibDems who are the challengers, I am predicting an increased Labour majority here. UPDATED: Surely too difficult for the SNP to steal a march from fourth place? UPDATE: The SNP are 14% ahead here according to the latest Ashcroft poll.

39. Edinburgh East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)

Sitting MP: Sheila Gilmore (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: Was. Not anymore.

40. Edinburgh South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

The LibDems came so close to winning this seat in 2010. If much of their 2010 vote transfers to the Conservatives, as it could do, this could be a surprise Tory gain in May. Don’t bank on it through. I predict Ian Murray will hold on.

41. Midlothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)

Sitting MP: David Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Try as the SNP might, I just don’t see them overturning this size of majority. Elsewhere maybe, but not in this seat. UPDATE: I’ve tried. And I might.

42. East Lothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)

Sitting MP: Fiona O’Donnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: If the SNP stay at plus 40% in the polls, they will take this seat.

Scotland – Borders & Ayrshire

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, Lib 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 4, SNP 1
Revised Prediction: Con 2, SNP 5
Final prediction: SNP 7

28. North Ayshire & Arran

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7212 (15.6%)
Labour: 21860 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (25.9%)
Others: 449 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9895 (21.5%)

Sitting MP: Katy Clark (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Big majority to overcome, but the polls show that it’s possible in this area.

29. Central Ayrshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8943 (20.4%)
Labour: 20950 (47.7%)
Lib Dem: 5236 (11.9%)
SNP: 8364 (19%)
Others: 422 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12007 (27.3%)

Sitting MP: Brian Donohoe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

This one may be out of the reach of the SNP. UPDATE: Or maybe not.

30. Kilmarnock & Loudoun

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6592 (14.2%)
Labour: 24460 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 3419 (7.3%)
SNP: 12082 (26%)
MAJORITY: 12378 (26.6%)

Sitting MP: Cathy Jamieson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Again, I just can’t see a 12k majority being threatened. UPDATE: But I can now. What a difference two months make…

43. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16555 (33.8%)
Labour: 5003 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 22230 (45.4%)
SNP: 4497 (9.2%)
UKIP: 595 (1.2%)
Others: 134 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5675 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Michael Moore (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Final Prediction: SNP gain

Michael Moore succeeded David Steel and it’s almost impossible to think of this seat being anything other than LibDem. However, the Tory candidate, John Lamont is the local MSP and he stood here in 2010. The Tory vote here increased by 3000 in 2010 and but Moore managed to squeeze the Labour vote too. It’s likely that vote will return from whence it came, but will it be enough for the Tories to squeeze home? It just might. UPDATE: It still might. The April Ashcroft poll shows all three parties within 2 points of each other but with the Tories marginally ahead. The momentum, though, is with the SNP.

44. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17457 (38%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 9080 (19.8%)
SNP: 4945 (10.8%)
Green: 510 (1.1%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 4194 (9.1%)

Sitting MP: David Mundell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

A Labour gain here is not out of the question if the bulk of the LibDem vote crumbles to them. Is this likely here? The consensus seems to be no. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll shows the SNP neck and neck with the Tories here. Assuming Mundell is seen as a good constituency MP that should see him squeak home. UPDATE: I now think the SNP’s memntum might well oust David Mundell, but this one is on a knifedge.

45. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11721 (25.5%)
Labour: 21632 (47.1%)
Lib Dem: 4264 (9.3%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJORITY: 9911 (21.6%)

Sitting MP: Sandra Osborne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

This is an interesting seat in that until 1992 it was a Tory seat held by Phil Gallie. It has a core Tory vote which has been increasing since 1992. The only way the Tories can regain this seat is if the Labour votes crashes to the SNP. If that happened, it’s possible for the SNP to take the seat, but either of these scenarios is pretty fanciful. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll shows a 20% swing to the SNP here.

46. Dumfries & Galloway

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16501 (31.6%)
Labour: 23950 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 4608 (8.8%)
SNP: 6419 (12.3%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 7449 (14.3%)

Sitting MP: Russell Brown (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

On the face of it a relatively safe call for Labour. Or is it? This seat has been held by the SNP and the Tories in recent memory. Either could come through the middle here, but I’m sticking with a ‘safe’ prediction here. UPDATE: But I’m not now. If the SNP stick at 40% plus I think Russell Brown will lose.

Scotland – Glasgow Surrounds

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 9
Revised Prediction: Lab 1, SNP 8
Final Prediction: SNP 9

24. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3407 (8.3%)
Labour: 23549 (57.2%)
Lib Dem: 3924 (9.5%)
SNP: 9794 (23.8%)
Others: 476 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 13755 (33.4%)

Sitting MP: Greg McClymont (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: It was. The Ashcroft poll in this seat is pretty conclusive, putting the SNP on 41%. The only slight caveat is that among the over 65s, who are most likely to vote, the SNP are on only 26%.

25. West Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3242 (7.7%)
Labour: 25905 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 3434 (8.1%)
SNP: 8497 (20.1%)
UKIP: 683 (1.6%)
Others: 505 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 17408 (41.2%)

Sitting MP: Gemma Doyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: Narrow SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: Labour ought to retain this seat but the Ashcroft poll shos a 34-25 margin of victory for the SNP. Labour needs to mobilise its older voters to turn out here too.

26. Inverclyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (56%)
Lib Dem: 5007 (13.3%)
SNP: 6577 (17.5%)
UKIP: 433 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 14416 (38.4%)

Sitting MP: Iain McKenzie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: A similar story to the previous two seats.

27. Paisley & Renfrewshire South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3979 (9.9%)
Labour: 23842 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 3812 (9.5%)
SNP: 7228 (18.1%)
Independent: 513 (1.3%)
Others: 624 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16614 (41.5%)

Sitting MP: Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll predicts an SNP victory by a margin of ten points. However, the Alexander name may just allow Douglas to squeak home. I’ll stick my neck out here and predict he will do just that. UPDATE: The latest Ashcroft poll stretches the Labour lead to 11 points. It’s difficult to see how Wee Dougie can recover that, even with his well known name.

31. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6613 (13%)
Labour: 26241 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5052 (9.9%)
SNP: 11738 (23%)
Green: 1003 (2%)
Independent: 299 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 14503 (28.5%)

Sitting MP: Michael McCann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: Toast if the SNP poll ratings are maintained.

32. Lanark & Hamilton East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6981 (15%)
Labour: 23258 (50%)
Lib Dem: 5249 (11.3%)
SNP: 9780 (21%)
UKIP: 616 (1.3%)
Independent: 670 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 13478 (29%)

Sitting MP: Jimmy Hood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: See above.

33. Airdrie & Shotts

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3133 (8.7%)
Labour: 20849 (58.2%)
Lib Dem: 2898 (8.1%)
SNP: 8441 (23.5%)
Independent: 528 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 12408 (34.6%)

Sitting MP: Pamela Nash (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: See above.

58. East Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7431 (15.5%)
Labour: 16367 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 18551 (38.7%)
SNP: 5054 (10.5%)
UKIP: 545 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2184 (4.6%)

Sitting MP: Jo Swinson (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems. Her only chink of light is the Labour vote collapsing to the SNP. UPDATE: I’m told the SNP have 1,000 new members in this constituency and the LibDem campaign is now ignoring Labour and fighting the SNP tide. This could turn into a rather interesting four way marginal. I’m now tipping the SNP to squeak it, but I think their intervention may possibly allow Jo Swinson to squeak home, and if she does become a leading candidate for the LibDem leadership.

59. Paisley & Renfrewshire North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6381 (14.6%)
Labour: 23613 (54%)
Lib Dem: 4597 (10.5%)
SNP: 8333 (19.1%)
Independent: 550 (1.3%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15280 (35%)

Sitting MP: Jim Sheridan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: Labour to lose this narrowly.

Glasgow

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Lab 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 10, SNP 1
Revised Prediction: Labour 6, SNP 5
*Final Prediction: Labour 4, SNP 7

47. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3374 (8.1%)
Labour: 27728 (66.6%)
Lib Dem: 3519 (8.5%)
SNP: 7014 (16.8%)
MAJORITY: 20714 (49.8%)

Sitting MP: Tom Clarke (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll has the SNP narrowly ahead here but Labour retains more support among older people (43-21) and they are more certain to vote. I think this seat will stay Labour.

48. Motherwell & Wishaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3660 (9.4%)
Labour: 23910 (61.1%)
Lib Dem: 3840 (9.8%)
SNP: 7104 (18.2%)
TUSC: 609 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16806 (43%)

Sitting MP: Frank Roy
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat: UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll puts Labour 9 points behind here, so it’s still possible for Labour to win, but I’m calling this for the SNP.

49. Glasgow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1453 (4.5%)
Labour: 19797 (61.6%)
Lib Dem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (24.7%)
BNP: 677 (2.1%)
UKIP: 209 (0.6%)
Others: 454 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 11840 (36.8%)

Sitting MP: Margaret Curren (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: Labour are seven points behind here. Will Margaret Curran’s name recognition be enough to save her? Doubtful.

50. Glasgow North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1569 (5.3%)
Labour: 20100 (68.3%)
Lib Dem: 2262 (7.7%)
SNP: 4158 (14.1%)
BNP: 798 (2.7%)
TUSC: 187 (0.6%)
Others: 335 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 15942 (54.2%)

Sitting MP: William Bain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

51. Glasgow North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2089 (7.1%)
Labour: 13181 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 9283 (31.3%)
SNP: 3530 (11.9%)
BNP: 296 (1%)
Green: 947 (3.2%)
TUSC: 287 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3898 (13.2%)

Sitting MP: Ann McKechin (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

The result of this seat will depend in large part on what happens to the LibDem vote and whether the Labour vote crumbles to the SNP. I’m assuming it will. Ladbrokes have this as an SNP gain too.

52. Glasgow North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3537 (9.9%)
Labour: 19233 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 5622 (15.8%)
SNP: 5430 (15.3%)
BNP: 699 (2%)
Green: 882 (2.5%)
Others: 179 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13611 (38.3%)

Sitting MP: John Robertson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: The SNP are only 4 points ahead here, and again, well behind on the over 65s (36-19). I’m calling this for Labour. UPDATE: Four months on, it’s likely that momentum here has built and that the SNP are on a bit of a roll.

53. Glasgow Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2158 (7.1%)
Labour: 15908 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5010 (16.4%)
SNP: 5357 (17.5%)
BNP: 616 (2%)
Green: 800 (2.6%)
UKIP: 246 (0.8%)
Others: 485 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 10551 (34.5%)

Sitting MP: Anas Sarwar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: The SNP are 11 points ahead according the the Ashcroft poll.

54. Glasgow South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2084 (6.6%)
Labour: 19863 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 2870 (9%)
SNP: 5192 (16.3%)
BNP: 841 (2.6%)
TUSC: 931 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 14671 (46.2%)

Sitting MP: Ian Davidson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Final Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE Another one with a narrow (5%) SNP lead but a massive Labour lead among the over 65s (45-18). The latest Ashcroft poll shows a 19% SNP lead. Decision made.

55. East Renfrewshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15567 (30.4%)
Labour: 25987 (50.8%)
Lib Dem: 4720 (9.2%)
SNP: 4535 (8.9%)
UKIP: 372 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10420 (20.4%)

Sitting MP: Jim Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Jim Murphy is standing again here, which is a bit odd in itself, but he’s likely to pull through here. UPDATE: The latest Ashcroft poll shows a halving of the SNP lead here, and Murphy is getting tactical votes from the Conservatives. I think he will win.

56. Glasgow South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4592 (11.5%)
Labour: 20736 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 4739 (11.8%)
SNP: 8078 (20.1%)
BNP: 637 (1.6%)
Green: 961 (2.4%)
TUSC: 351 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 12658 (31.6%)

Sitting MP: Tom Harris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain

Safe seat. UPDATE: An 11 point lead for the SNP here. I’d hate to see Tom Harris lose, but on this evidence it looks entirely possible.

57. Rutherglen & Hamilton W

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4540 (9.7%)
Labour: 28566 (60.8%)
Lib Dem: 5636 (12%)
SNP: 7564 (16.1%)
UKIP: 675 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (44.7%)

Sitting MP: Tom Greatrex (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

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Final General Election Predictions 55: Cumbria

1 May 2015 at 01:18

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

CUMBRIA

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 3, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4, LibDem 1

1. Barrow and Furness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16018 (36.3%)
Labour: 21226 (48.1%)
Lib Dem: 4424 (10%)
BNP: 840 (1.9%)
Green: 530 (1.2%)
UKIP: 841 (1.9%)
Independent: 245 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5208 (11.8%)

Sitting MP: John Woodcock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Carlisle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16589 (39.3%)
Labour: 15736 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 6567 (15.6%)
BNP: 1086 (2.6%)
Green: 614 (1.5%)
UKIP: 969 (2.3%)
TUSC: 376 (0.9%)
Others: 263 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 853 (2%)

Siting MP: John Stevenson (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Local election results here have been mixed, with UKIP biting into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. But I’d still expect Labour to win here, however narrowly.

3. Copeland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15866 (37.1%)
Labour: 19699 (46%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.4%)
Green: 389 (0.9%)
UKIP: 994 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3833 (9%)

Sitting MP: Jamie Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

By rights this seat should be far more marginal than it has proved to be.

4. Penrith & the Border

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24071 (53.4%)
Labour: 5834 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 12830 (28.5%)
BNP: 1093 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 11241 (24.9%)

Sitting MP: Rory Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Westmorland & Lonsdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18632 (36.2%)
Labour: 1158 (2.2%)
Lib Dem: 30896 (60%)
UKIP: 801 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12264 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Tim Farron (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

How this went seat went LibDem in the first place is testament to Tim Farron’s campaigning ability. He’s one of the few LibDems certain to be re-elected.

6. Workington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13290 (33.9%)
Labour: 17865 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 5318 (13.5%)
BNP: 1496 (3.8%)
UKIP: 876 (2.2%)
English Dem: 414 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4575 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Tony Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe Labour seat.

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Final General Election Predictions 54: County Durham

1 May 2015 at 01:09

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

COUNTY DURHAM

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 7

1. Bishop Auckland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10805 (26.3%)
Labour: 16023 (39%)
Lib Dem: 9189 (22.3%)
BNP: 2036 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1119 (2.7%)
Others: 1964 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 5218 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Helen Goodman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. City of Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (13.3%)
Labour: 20496 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 17429 (37.7%)
BNP: 1153 (2.5%)
UKIP: 856 (1.9%)
Independent: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3067 (6.6%)

Sitting MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A LibDem target last time, but they didn’t quite pull it off. An increased Labour majority here.

3. Darlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13503 (31.5%)
Labour: 16891 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 10046 (23.4%)
BNP: 1262 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 3388 (7.9%)

Sitting MP: Jenny Chapman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Michael Fallon was MP here between 1983 and 1992 and there are plenty of Tories who expected to win it back in 2010. It didn’t happen and the size of Labour’s majority make it unlikely to switch in May unless there’s a Tory majority of 50 or so. Some hope!

4. Easington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4790 (13.7%)
Labour: 20579 (58.9%)
Lib Dem: 5597 (16%)
BNP: 2317 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1631 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 14982 (42.9%)

Sitting MP: Grahame Morris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. North Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8622 (21%)
Labour: 20698 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 8617 (21%)
BNP: 1686 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1344 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 12076 (29.5%)

Sitting MP: Kevan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. North West Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8766 (20%)
Labour: 18539 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 10927 (24.9%)
BNP: 1852 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.9%)
Independent: 2472 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 7612 (17.4%)

Sitting MP: Pat Glass (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Sedgefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9445 (23.5%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.7%)
Others: 1049 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8696 (21.6%)

Sitting MP: Phil Wilson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

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Final General Election Predictions 53: Lancashire

30 Apr 2015 at 22:37

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LANCASHIRE

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 9, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 9
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

Sitting MP: Jack Straw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anything could happen here but the Ashcroft poll suggests a Tory win, as do many local pundits, so I will stick with that.

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Birtwhistle (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat last time, and he has the mother of all struggles to regain it. He’s been very independent minded and that will help him, and he’s a very local man. But you’d have to bet on a Labour win here.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history, but it won’t revert to blue in 2010.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. I doubt whether they will be successful in 2010 unless they get a majority in excess of 30.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

Sitting MP: Eric Ollerenshaw (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

There’s a big LibDem vote here, and I suspect we can all guess which direction some of that will be heading in. You’d have to be brave to bet against Labour here.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

David Morris won this back from Labour after three terms. UKIP could influence the result here. The Ashcroft poll gives Labour only a 3% lead so not all is lost for the Tories, but a Labour gain is the most likely result.

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A true bellweather seat, I have a feeling Andrew Stephenson will hold on. If he increases his majority we’re looking at a Tory majority. If he loses the seat we’re looking at a Labour majority.

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Will Straw is standing here but he faces an uphill struggle against Jake Berry. I don’t see this falling to Labour unless Ed Miliband is heading for a majority. UPDATE: An April Ashcroft poll put the two parties level pegging.

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

Sitting MP: Lorraine Fulbrook (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Similar to the last seat I don’t see this falling to Labour unless they are heading for a majority. The only difference is that Lorraine Fulbrook is standing down. She’s popular and this might slightly depress the Tory vote.

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat but I can’t see the Tories winning here unless they’re heading for a good majority.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

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Final General Election Predictions 52: Northumberland

30 Apr 2015 at 22:33

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NORTHUMBERLAND

Seats: 4
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 2

1. Berwick upon Tweed

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14116 (36.7%)
Labour: 5061 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16806 (43.7%)
BNP: 1213 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 2690 (7%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Beith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If Alan Beith had been refighting this seat I still think it would have fallen to the Tories, but seeing as he’s standing down it’s almost certain to. However, the fact that PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson has a bet on a LibDem hold makes me feel nervous. There’s still a bit of Labour vote here. If the LibDem successor to Beith can get them voting tactically, that could swing it for the Libs.

2. Blyth Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6412 (16.6%)
Labour: 17156 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 10488 (27.2%)
BNP: 1699 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.3%)
English Dem: 327 (0.8%)
Independent: 819 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 6668 (17.3%)

Sitting MP: Ronnie Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Hexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18795 (43.2%)
Labour: 8253 (19%)
Lib Dem: 13007 (29.9%)
BNP: 1205 (2.8%)
Independent: 1974 (4.5%)
Others: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5788 (13.3%)

Sitting MP: Guy Opperman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Wansbeck

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6714 (17.5%)
Labour: 17548 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 10517 (27.5%)
BNP: 1418 (3.7%)
Green: 601 (1.6%)
UKIP: 974 (2.5%)
Christian: 142 (0.4%)
Independent: 359 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7031 (18.4%)

Sitting MP: Ian Lavery (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 51: Yorkshire North

30 Apr 2015 at 16:35

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

NORTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Harrogate & Knaresborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise gain for the Tories at the last election, Andrew Jones overturned a 10k majority. He will win again.

2. Richmond

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)

Sitting MP: William Hague (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Scarborough & Whitby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)

Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not quite a safe seat, but anything other than a Tory hold here is somewhat unlikely.

4. Selby & Ainsty

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Skipton & Ripon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Thirsk & Malton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)

Sitting MP: Anne McIntosh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anne McIntosh has been deselected and is threatening to stand as an independent. She’ll no doubt be bought off with the promise of a seat in the Lords, but even if she did stand again, surely the Tory majority here is too large for the seat to be lost to another party.

7. York Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)

Sitting MP: Sir Hugh Bayley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was briefly a Tory seat in the 1980s but Labour now benefits from a split opposition.

8. York Outer

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Julian Sturdy can be confident of getting an increased majority here.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 50: East Yorkshire & Humberside

30 Apr 2015 at 15:09

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

EAST YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Labour 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Beverley & Holderness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25063 (47.1%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Lib Dem: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.9%)
Green: 686 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.5%)
Independent: 225 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12987 (24.4%)

Sitting MP: Graham Stuart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

2. Brigg & Goole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19680 (44.9%)
Labour: 14533 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 6414 (14.6%)
BNP: 1498 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1749 (4%)
MAJORITY: 5147 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Percy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat since 1997 Andrew Percy did well to win such a large majority in 2010. He will be expecting his majority to fall but I think he will squeeze home. He’s been an independent minded MP and the Tories have finished first in every local election here since 2007.

3. Cleethorpes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18939 (42.1%)
Labour: 14641 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 8192 (18.2%)
UKIP: 3194 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 4298 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Martin Vickers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

UKIP have their sights set on this seat. While they may not win it they may determine its outcome, depending on which party they take most votes from. I think Martin Vickers will narrowly hang on.

4. East Yorkshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (47.5%)
Labour: 10401 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 10842 (21.2%)
BNP: 1865 (3.6%)
Green: 762 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
Others: 914 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 13486 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Greg Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Great Grimsby

Conservative: 10063 (30.5%)
Labour: 10777 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7388 (22.4%)
BNP: 1517 (4.6%)
UKIP: 2043 (6.2%)
Independent: 835 (2.5%)
Others: 331 (1%)
MAJORITY: 714 (2.2%)

Sitting MP: Austin Mitchell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A formerly very safe Labour seat this nearly went to the Tories in 2010. Ordinarily they might make a push this time, but there’s the UKIP fly in the ointment. Their candidate, Victoria Ayling, stood here for the Tories last time and is quite high profile. However, I just can’t see them taking this seat or coming anywhere near it to be frank. All I can see here is an increased Labour majority. UPDATE: An Ashcroft poll puts Labour 17 points ahead.

6. Haltemprice & Howden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24486 (50.2%)
Labour: 7630 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 12884 (26.4%)
BNP: 1583 (3.2%)
Green: 669 (1.4%)
English Dem: 1485 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11602 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: David Davis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Hull East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5667 (16.6%)
Labour: 16387 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 7790 (22.8%)
UKIP: 2745 (8%)
English Dem: 715 (2.1%)
Others: 880 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8597 (25.1%)

Sitting MP: Karl Turner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

8. Hull North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4365 (13.1%)
Labour: 13044 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 12403 (37.3%)
BNP: 1443 (4.3%)
Green: 478 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1358 (4.1%)
English Dem: 200 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 641 (1.9%)

Sitting MP: Diana Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Another seat the LibDems nearly won in 2010. They won’t come anywhere close in May.

9. Hull West & Hessle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6361 (20.2%)
Labour: 13378 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 7636 (24.2%)
BNP: 1416 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.4%)
English Dem: 876 (2.8%)
TUSC: 150 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5742 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Alan Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Probably an increased majority for Alan AJ Johnson.

10. Scunthorpe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12091 (32.6%)
Labour: 14640 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 6774 (18.3%)
BNP: 1447 (3.9%)
Green: 396 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.6%)
MAJORITY: 2549 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Nicholas Dakin (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a huge majority but it’s difficult to imagine anything different other than a Labour hold. One for the Tories to target in 2020.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

Final General Election Predictions 49: Yorkshire West

30 Apr 2015 at 14:25

ck in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WEST YORKSHIRE

Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 12, LibDem 2, Respect 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 16, LibDem 1, Respect 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Batley & Spen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)

Sitting MP: Mike Wood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Held by Labour since 1997 and unlikely to change hands in 2010.

2. Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

Sitting MP: David Ward (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

A dead cert Labour gain, I’d have thought, and a result which will bring joy to jewish people all over the country.

3. Bradford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)

Sitting MP: Gerry Sutcliffe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here.

4. Bradford West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)

BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (
1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)

Sitting MP: George Galloway (Respect)
Prediction: Respect hold

Given the majority in the by-election you’d think George Galloway would be a shoo-in. And the sad truth is that he almost certainly will be.

5. Calder Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Should be a Tory hold although Labour will have a good go at this seat if they can attract over a few thousand LibDem voters.

6. Colne Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)

Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

McCartney benefits from a split opposition. His majority will undoubtedly be cut, but it can only be eradicated if Labour wins over a lot of LibDem voters.

7. Dewsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: Simon Reevell (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

The Ashcroft poll in this seat puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% and UKIP on 18%. Local election results also show Labour in the lead.

8. Elmet & Rothwell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)

Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold

This one could be very close indeed, but Shelbrooke had got a good local reputation and the local elections went in his favour. I reckon he will pull through but there might only be a few hundred votes in it.

9. Halifax

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Linda Riordan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had high hopes here last time but they didn’t quite manage it. Labour will hang on with an increased majority.

10. Hemsworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)

Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Huddersfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)

Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

12. Keighley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Not a dead cert Labour gain, it has to be said, but Hopkins would be the toast of the Tory Party if he manages to hold this seat. In the Ashcroft poll UKIP scored 23% and it’s clear that a lot of these are ex Conservatives. He needs UKIP to eat into the Labour vote.

13. Leeds Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)

Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Leeds East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)

Sitting MP: George Mudie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

15. Leeds North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Sir Keith Joseph’s former seat, it hasn’t been Tory since 1992. It’s unlikely to go back to the blue corner in 2010.

16. Leeds North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)

Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

If there is any such thing as a safe LibDem seat, this is it. It’s got a split opposition and Greg Mulholland has worked the constituency like only a LibDem knows how to. I’d be astonished if he lost.

17. Leeds West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)

Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

18. Morley & Outwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Ed Balls (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority.

The Tories really thought they might win this seat last time, and they came much closer than pundits predicted. Can they oust their bogeyman this time? It’s highly unlikely. UKIP have done well here in the local elections and may well take a large number of votes from the Tories. Expect Ed Balls’ majority to rocket.

19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

20. Pudsey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Very difficult to call. The Ashcroft poll has Labour and the Tories at 36% each. There’s a substantial LibDem vote to eek out. I think this is a seat where the majority may well be under 500.

21. Shipley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)

Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

22. Wakefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A narrow majority, but Mary Creagh will be safe here, surely. Ed Miliband certainly can’t afford to lose her. UKIP have eaten into the Tory vote and may well come second. They beat the Tories in the 2014 local elections.

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