General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 58: Scotland - Central

12 Jan 2015 at 19:00

This is the fifty-eighth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – Central

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 1, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 0, SNP 5

13. Dundee East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)

Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

No problems for Stewart Hosie here.

14. Dundee West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)

Sitting MP: Jim McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Labour has a good majority here but Dundee has always been susceptible to the allure of the SNP and I think they have a good chance of winning here. There are rumours that Jim McGovern is being pressured to stand aside for a new candidate.

15. Perth & North Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)

Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.

16. Argyll & Bute

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)

Sitting MP: Alan Reid (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain

This is a genuine four way marginal now. However, Labour has no record locally and it’s likely their vote and indeed the LibDem vote may splinter to the SNP. If the Tories can take votes from the LibDems they may have a vague possibility of winning here, but my gut instinct is that the SNP is the more likely winner.My original prediction last year was that Alan Reid might hold this, or it would go to Labour. I have revised my view based on more research.

17. Stirling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)

Sitting MP: Anne McGuire (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

An interesting seat, the more so since the popular Ann McGuire is standing down. The Tories haven’t won here since Michael Forsyth unexpectedly held the seat in 1992. They won’t this time either. They might not, but the SNP might well come from third place to win this seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lbclowerreshead

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Gets Emotional About Grief

In a half hour discussion on dealing with long term grief, callers get very emotional and Iain has his moments too.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 57: Scotland - North East

12 Jan 2015 at 17:00

This is the fifty-seventh in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – North East

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 2, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 1, SNP 4

7. Banff & Buchan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)

Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

An easy win for the SNP here.

8. Gordon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Bruce (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain

Sir Malcolm Bruce is standing down. He has benefited from a split opposition in the past but the SNP have been making headway here, and few observers think the LibDems will hold off their challenge. The LibDems’ best strategy is to court tactical votes from Labour and the Tories to keep out Alex Salmond, assuming he does decide to stand here. According to THIS article, that’s just what they are trying.

9. Aberdeen North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)

Sitting MP: Frank Doran (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

A big majority, but the popular Frank Doran is standing down and the SNP have high hopes of taking this seat. They have never done especially well in Aberdeen, but that could change in May. One to watch.

10. Aberdeen South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)

Sitting MP: Dame Anne Begg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a Tory seat and they still retain a substantial vote. However, with the probably collapse of the LibDem vote, Labour’s majority should increase here.

11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Sir Robert Smith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This may well turn into a three way marginal, with the Tories and the SNP trying to oust Sir Robert Smith. The LibDem majority was halved last time, and it’s very possible to see how rises in the Labour and SNP votes could see this seat return to the Conservative fold. But if the SNP do as the current polls suggest they will, don’t rule out an astonishing SNP gain here.

12. Angus

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)

Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

I can’t see anything other than an SNP hold here, despite the Tories being a strong second.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain Comments on Cameron's Reshuffle

Sky News - 4 Sept 2013

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 56: Scotland - North & Islands

12 Jan 2015 at 15:00

This is the fifty-sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – North & Islands

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: LibDem 4, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: LibDem 4, SNP 2

1. Orkney & Shetland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)

Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

If the LibDems were reduced to two seats, this would be one of the two. A real LibDem stronghold.

2. Na h-Eileanan an lar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)

Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Smallest constituency in the country. Was a Labour seat until 2005.

3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)

Sitting MP: John Thurso (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Both Labour and the SNP think they can win this seat. Highland voters tend to give an incumbent a bigger personal vote than elsewhere and John Thurso is a very popular MP. If anyone can hold a LibDem seat on the Scottish mainland he can.

4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)

Sitting MP: Charles Kennedy (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Charles Kennedy surely has to be safe here.

5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)

Sitting MP: Danny Alexander (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

This seat has unsurprisingly received a lot of Treasury ‘pork’ and the LibDems are putting huge financial resources into it. However, the SNP think it is theirs for the taking and have selected the local council leader Drew Hendry to fight it. Why? They got 51% of the vote in the Holyrood election with the LibDems only scoring 12%. An ICM poll also had the LibDems down 25% and them coming in third place. If this really happened it would evidence of a complete meltdown for the LibDems in Scotland. However the poll size was only 309 so I don’t set much store by that.

6. Moray

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)

Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

No problems for the Westminster leader (for now!) of the SNP.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

5 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain Interviews Jeffrey Archer

18 Doughty Street, One to One

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 55: Cumbria

12 Jan 2015 at 13:00

This is the fifty-fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Cumbria

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 3, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4, LibDem 1

1. Barrow and Furness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16018 (36.3%)
Labour: 21226 (48.1%)
Lib Dem: 4424 (10%)
BNP: 840 (1.9%)
Green: 530 (1.2%)
UKIP: 841 (1.9%)
Independent: 245 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5208 (11.8%)

Sitting MP: John Woodcock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Carlisle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16589 (39.3%)
Labour: 15736 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 6567 (15.6%)
BNP: 1086 (2.6%)
Green: 614 (1.5%)
UKIP: 969 (2.3%)
TUSC: 376 (0.9%)
Others: 263 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 853 (2%)

Siting MP: John Stevenson (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Local election results here have been mixed, with UKIP biting into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. But I’d still expect Labour to win here, however narrowly.

3. Copeland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15866 (37.1%)
Labour: 19699 (46%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.4%)
Green: 389 (0.9%)
UKIP: 994 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3833 (9%)

Sitting MP: Jamie Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

By rights this seat should be far more marginal than it has proved to be.

4. Penrith & the Border

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24071 (53.4%)
Labour: 5834 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 12830 (28.5%)
BNP: 1093 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 11241 (24.9%)

Sitting MP: Rory Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Westmorland & Lonsdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18632 (36.2%)
Labour: 1158 (2.2%)
Lib Dem: 30896 (60%)
UKIP: 801 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12264 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Tim Farron (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

How this went seat went LibDem in the first place is testament to Tim Farron’s campaigning ability. He’s one of the few LibDems certain to be re-elected.

6. Workington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13290 (33.9%)
Labour: 17865 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 5318 (13.5%)
BNP: 1496 (3.8%)
UKIP: 876 (2.2%)
English Dem: 414 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4575 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Tony Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Relatively safe Labour seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

3 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_margaret_thatcher_cropped23

What the Papers Say - Margaret Thatcher Edition

Iain presents Radio 4's What the Papers Say

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 54: County Durham

12 Jan 2015 at 11:00

This is the fifty-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

County Durham

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 7

1. Bishop Auckland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10805 (26.3%)
Labour: 16023 (39%)
Lib Dem: 9189 (22.3%)
BNP: 2036 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1119 (2.7%)
Others: 1964 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 5218 (12.7%)

Sitting MP: Helen Goodman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. City of Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (13.3%)
Labour: 20496 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 17429 (37.7%)
BNP: 1153 (2.5%)
UKIP: 856 (1.9%)
Independent: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3067 (6.6%)

Sitting MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A LibDem target last time, but they didn’t quite pull it off. An increased Labour majority here.

3. Darlington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13503 (31.5%)
Labour: 16891 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 10046 (23.4%)
BNP: 1262 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 3388 (7.9%)

Sitting MP: Jenny Chapman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Michael Fallon was MP here between 1983 and 1992 and there are plenty of Tories who expected to win it back in 2010. It didn’t happen and the size of Labour’s majority make it unlikely to switch in May unless there’s a Tory majority of 50 or so. Some hope!

4. Easington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4790 (13.7%)
Labour: 20579 (58.9%)
Lib Dem: 5597 (16%)
BNP: 2317 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1631 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 14982 (42.9%)

Sitting MP: Grahame Morris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. North Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8622 (21%)
Labour: 20698 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 8617 (21%)
BNP: 1686 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1344 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 12076 (29.5%)

Sitting MP: Kevan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. North West Durham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8766 (20%)
Labour: 18539 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 10927 (24.9%)
BNP: 1852 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.9%)
Independent: 2472 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 7612 (17.4%)

Sitting MP: Pat Glass (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Sedgefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9445 (23.5%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.7%)
Others: 1049 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8696 (21.6%)

Sitting MP: Phil Wilson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_ed-balls-keyboard

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Entices Ed Balls to Play the Piano

The Shadow Chancellor tinkles the ivories at the Labour Party Conference

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 53: Lancashire

12 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the fifty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Lancashire

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 9, Lab 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 9

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

Sitting MP: Jack Straw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anything could happen here but the Ashcroft poll suggests a Tory win, as do many local pundits, so I will stick with that.

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Birtwhistle (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat last time, and he has the mother of all struggles to regain it. He’s been very independent minded and that will help him, and he’s a very local man. But you’d have to bet on a Labour win here.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history, but it won’t revert to blue in 2010.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. I doubt whether they will be successful in 2010 unless they get a majority in excess of 30.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

Sitting MP: Eric Ollerenshaw (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

There’s a big LibDem vote here, and I suspect we can all guess which direction some of that will be heading in. You’d have to be brave to bet against Labour here.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

David Morris won this back from Labour after three terms. UKIP could influence the result here. The Ashcroft poll gives Labour only a 3% lead so not all is lost for the Tories, but a Labour gain is the most likely result.

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A true bellweather seat, I have a feeling Andrew Stephenson will hold on. If he increases his majority we’re looking at a Tory majority. If he loses the seat we’re looking at a Labour majority.

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Will Straw is standing here but he faces an uphill struggle against Jake Berry. I don’t see this falling to Labour unless ed Miliband is heading for a majority.

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

Sitting MP: Lorraine Fulbrook (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Similar to the last seat I don’t see this falling to Labour unless they are heading for a majority. The only difference is that Lorraine Fulbrook is standing down. She’s popular and this might slightly depress the Tory vote.

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat but I can’t see the Tories winning here unless they’re heading for a good majority.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

2 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_paulcoroy

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Photjournalist Paul Conroy

Paul Conroy talks about his terrible injuries from Syria and his work with Marie Colvin.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 52: Northumberland

11 Jan 2015 at 21:27

This is the fifty-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Northumberland

Seats: 4
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 2

1. Berwick upon Tweed

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14116 (36.7%)
Labour: 5061 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16806 (43.7%)
BNP: 1213 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 2690 (7%)

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Beith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If Alan Beith had been refighting this seat I still think it would have fallen to the Tories, but seeing as he’s standing down it’s almost certain to. However, the fact that PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson has a bet on a LibDem hold makes me feel nervous. There’s still a bit of Labour vote here. If the LibDem successor to Beith can get them voting tactically, that could swing it for the Libs.

2. Blyth Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6412 (16.6%)
Labour: 17156 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 10488 (27.2%)
BNP: 1699 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.3%)
English Dem: 327 (0.8%)
Independent: 819 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 6668 (17.3%)

Sitting MP: Ronnie Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Hexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18795 (43.2%)
Labour: 8253 (19%)
Lib Dem: 13007 (29.9%)
BNP: 1205 (2.8%)
Independent: 1974 (4.5%)
Others: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5788 (13.3%)

Sitting MP: Guy Opperman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

4. Wansbeck

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6714 (17.5%)
Labour: 17548 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 10517 (27.5%)
BNP: 1418 (3.7%)
Green: 601 (1.6%)
UKIP: 974 (2.5%)
Christian: 142 (0.4%)
Independent: 359 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7031 (18.4%)

Sitting MP: Ian Lavery (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain Dale North Norfol Campaign Video on Coastal Erosion

Created by Salsa Shark

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 51: North Yorkshire

11 Jan 2015 at 19:00

This is the fifty-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

North Yorkshire

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 1

1. Harrogate & Knaresborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise gain for the Tories at the last election, Andrew Jones overturned a 10k majority. He will win again.

2. Richmond

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)

Sitting MP: William Hague (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Scarborough & Whitby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)

Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not quite a safe seat, but anything other than a Tory hold here is somewhat unlikely.

4. Selby & Ainsty

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Skipton & Ripon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Thirsk & Malton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)

Sitting MP: Anne McIntosh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anne McIntosh has been deselected and is threatening to stand as an independent. She’ll no doubt be bought off with the promise of a seat in the Lords, but even if she did stand again, surely the Tory majority here is too large for the seat to be lost to another party.

7. York Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)

Sitting MP: Sir Hugh Bayley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was briefly a Tory seat in the 1980s but Labour now benefits from a split opposition.

8. York Outer

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Julian Sturdy can be confident of getting an increased majority here.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

5 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lbclogo

LBC Book Club: Iain talks to Tom Bower

Iain talks to Tom Bower about his controversial new book on Richard Branson.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 50: East Yorkshire & Humberside

11 Jan 2015 at 17:00

This is the fiftieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

East Yorkshire & Humberside

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Labour 5

1. Beverley & Holderness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25063 (47.1%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Lib Dem: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.9%)
Green: 686 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.5%)
Independent: 225 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12987 (24.4%)

Sitting MP: Graham Stuart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat

2. Brigg & Goole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19680 (44.9%)
Labour: 14533 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 6414 (14.6%)
BNP: 1498 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1749 (4%)
MAJORITY: 5147 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Percy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat since 1997 Andrew Percy did well to win such a large majority in 2010. He will be expecting his majority to fall but I think he will squeeze home. He’s been an independent minded MP and the Tories have finished first in every local election here since 2007.

3. Cleethorpes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18939 (42.1%)
Labour: 14641 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 8192 (18.2%)
UKIP: 3194 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 4298 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Martin Vickers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

UKIP have their sights set on this seat. While they may not win it they may determine its outcome, depending on which party they take most votes from. I think Martin Vickers will narrowly hang on.

4. East Yorkshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (47.5%)
Labour: 10401 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 10842 (21.2%)
BNP: 1865 (3.6%)
Green: 762 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
Others: 914 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 13486 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Greg Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Great Grimsby

Conservative: 10063 (30.5%)
Labour: 10777 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7388 (22.4%)
BNP: 1517 (4.6%)
UKIP: 2043 (6.2%)
Independent: 835 (2.5%)
Others: 331 (1%)
MAJORITY: 714 (2.2%)

Sitting MP: Austin Mitchell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A formerly very safe Labour seat this nearly went to the Tories in 2010. Ordinarily they might make a push this time, but there’s the UKIP fly in the ointment. Their candidate, Victoria Ayling, stood here for the Tories last time and is quite high profile. However, I just can’t see them taking this seat or coming anywhere near it to be frank. All I can see here is an increased Labour majority.

6. Haltemprice & Howden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24486 (50.2%)
Labour: 7630 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 12884 (26.4%)
BNP: 1583 (3.2%)
Green: 669 (1.4%)
English Dem: 1485 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11602 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: David Davis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

7. Hull East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5667 (16.6%)
Labour: 16387 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 7790 (22.8%)
UKIP: 2745 (8%)
English Dem: 715 (2.1%)
Others: 880 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8597 (25.1%)

Sitting MP: Karl Turner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

8. Hull North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4365 (13.1%)
Labour: 13044 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 12403 (37.3%)
BNP: 1443 (4.3%)
Green: 478 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1358 (4.1%)
English Dem: 200 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 641 (1.9%)

Sitting MP: Diana Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Another seat the LibDems nearly won in 2010. They won’t come anywhere close in May.

9. Hull West & Hessle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6361 (20.2%)
Labour: 13378 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 7636 (24.2%)
BNP: 1416 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.4%)
English Dem: 876 (2.8%)
TUSC: 150 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5742 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Alan Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Probably an increased majority for Alan AJ Johnson.

10. Scunthorpe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12091 (32.6%)
Labour: 14640 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 6774 (18.3%)
BNP: 1447 (3.9%)
Green: 396 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.6%)
MAJORITY: 2549 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Nicholas Dakin (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a huge majority but it’s difficult to imagine anything different other than a Labour hold. One for the Tories to target in 2020.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain's Short Documentay on the Rwandan Genocide

Iain reports from Rwanda for 18 Doughty Street, July 2007

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 49: West Yorkshire

11 Jan 2015 at 15:00

This is the forty-ninth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

West Yorkshire

Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 12, LibDem 2, Respect 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 16, LibDem 1, Respect 1

1. Batley & Spen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)

Sitting MP: Mike Wood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Held by Labour since 1997 and unlikely to change hands in 2010.

2. Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

Sitting MP: David Ward (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

A dead cert Labour gain, I’d have thought, and a result which will bring joy to jewish people all over the country.

3. Bradford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)

Sitting MP: Gerry Sutcliffe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here.

4. Bradford West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)

BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (
1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)

Sitting MP: George Galloway (Respect)
Prediction: Respect hold

Given the majority in the by-election you’d think George Galloway would be a shoo-in. And the sad truth is that he almost certainly will be.

5. Calder Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Should be a Tory hold although Labour will have a good go at this seat if they can attract over a few thousand LibDem voters.

6. Colne Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)

Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

McCartney benefits from a split opposition. His majority will undoubtedly be cut, but it can only be eradicated if Labour wins over a lot of LibDem voters.

7. Dewsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: Simon Reevell (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

The Ashcroft poll in this seat puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% and UKIP on 18%. Local election results also show Labour in the lead.

8. Elmet & Rothwell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)

Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold

This one could be very close indeed, but Shelbrooke had got a good local reputation and the local elections went in his favour. I reckon he will pull through but there might only be a few hundred votes in it.

9. Halifax

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Linda Riordan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had high hopes here last time but they didn’t quite manage it. Labour will hang on with an increased majority.

10. Hemsworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)

Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Huddersfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)

Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

12. Keighley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Not a dead cert Labour gain, it has to be said, but Hopkins would be the toast of the Tory Party if he manages to hold this seat. In the Ashcroft poll UKIP scored 23% and it’s clear that a lot of these are ex Conservatives. He needs UKIP to eat into the Labour vote.

13. Leeds Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)

Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Leeds East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)

Sitting MP: George Mudie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

15. Leeds North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Sir Keith Joseph’s former seat, it hasn’t been Tory since 1992. It’s unlikely to go back to the blue corner in 2010.

16. Leeds North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)

Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

If there is any such thing as a safe LibDem seat, this is it. It’s got a split opposition and Greg Mulholland has worked the constituency like only a LibDem knows how to. I’d be astonished if he lost.

17. Leeds West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)
Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

18. Morley & Outwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Ed Balls (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority.

The Tories really thought they might win this seat last time, and they came much closer than pundits predicted. Can they oust their bogeyman this time? It’s highly unlikely. UKIP have done well here in the local elections and may well take a large number of votes from the Tories. Expect Ed Balls’ majority to rocket.

19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

20. Pudsey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Very difficult to call. The Ashcroft poll has Labour and the Tories at 36% each. There’s a substantial LibDem vote to eek out. I think this is a seat where the majority may well be under 500.

21. Shipley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)

Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

22. Wakefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A narrow majority, but Mary Creagh will be safe here, surely. Ed Miliband certainly can’t afford to lose her. UKIP have eaten into the Tory vote and may well come second. They beat the Tories in the 2014 local elections.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

Share:

4 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_charlesm

Voice of Russia: Debate on Margaret Thatcher's Legacy

With Iain Dale, Michael Cockerell, Peter Tatchell and Nigel Wilmott. It's sparky!

Listen now