General Election Predictions

Nick Clegg Takes Me To Task For My LibDem Seat Prediction

18 Jan 2015 at 13:22

Oh Nick, Nick Nick. Much to my surprise Andrew Marr quoted my prediction from the Independent on Sunday that…

The one prediction I am 100% confident in making is that the Liberal Democrats will lose more than half of their seats.

Now, I do have form on getting LibDem seat predictions wrong. After all, I stood in North Norfolk and last time on election night I promised to run down Whitehall naked if the BBC exit poll was right and the LibDems only won 59 seats. The fact that they won two fewer was my, ahem, get-out clause. But am I not right in remembering that Nick Clegg himself has predicted the LibDems will get around 30 – which is not far off losing half their seats.

Obviously all my seat per party predictions will be wrong. It would be amazing if they weren’t, but if I changed my prediction to 5 or 10 seat ranges, I don’t think I am going to be far out. So this is what I’ll stand by, although I will revise this as the election draws closer.

Conservative 275-285
Labour 290-300
LibDem 22-27
UKIP 1-5
SNP 15-20
Plaid 2-4
DUP 7-10

I see some people are stil predicting 40 for the SNP. Don’t make me laugh.

UPDATE: To see the complete list of constituency predictions click HERE

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Michael Dobbs

Michael Dobbs discusses his writing career.

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UK Politics

General Election Predictions: The Final Results - We're Heading For a Three Party Coalition or a Second Election

18 Jan 2015 at 09:01

This is the final result of my seat by seat predictions, which I have been posting on here over the last month…

Conservative 278 (-29)
Labour 301 (43)
Liberal Democrats 24 (-33)
SNP 18 (
12)
UKIP 5 (5)
Plaid Cymru 3 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Respect 1 (-)
DUP 9 (
1)
Sinn Fein 5 (-)
SDLP 3 (-)
Independent 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

• Only 94 (14.5%) out of 650 seats will change hands
• Scotland is the most volatile region of the UK with 15 out of 59 seats changing hands
• In England the South West & the North West are the most volatile regions with 13 seats changing hands in each
• The North East is the most stable regions with only 2 seats changing hands
• The Conservatives will lose 48 seats and gain 19
• Labour will lose 11 seats and gain 54
• The LibDems will lose 32 seats and gain none
• The SNP will lose no seats and gain 12
UKIP will lose no seats and gain 5
• The seat with the biggest majority to change hands will be Llinlithgow & Falkirk – 12553, which will be won by the SNP from Labour

So what’s the election result going to be? That’s the question I am asked most often nowadays, and I am sure it’s the one my fellow political commentators also find the most difficult to answer. “Oh, it’s going to be very exciting,” we all say, laughing nervously because nobody has a clue what the real answer is.

The truth is that this is the most unpredictable election in recent memory and for one very simple reason – for the first time in British political history, we’re now in five party politics. For the first time ever it’s conceivable that the joint vote share of the two main parties might be under 60%.

The only thing we can say with certainty is that the days of the election night swingometer are well and truly behind us. There is no such thing as a national swing. National opinion polls have been rendered almost redundant. The various internet election forecasting sites have little relevance. Tip O’Neil once said that ‘all politics is local’ and boy was he right.

I have taken him at his word and taken on the mammoth task of predicting the result in each of the UK’s 650 constituencies. Clearly only an idiot or a massive political geek would undertake such a task and put his money where his mouth is. I’ll leave you to decide which I am.

Obviously I am not an expert on each seat. But there’s a lot of information out there if you look for it. Sites like PoliticalBetting.com and UKPollingReport are mines of useful statistics and opinion. Lord Ashcroft’s excellent constituency based polls also provide useful data along with other local factors I have researched. I’ve made the predictions as scientific as I can make them on the evidence I have available to me. In the end you also have to sniff the political wind and rely on your own political instinct. And that’s what I have done. It’s served me well over the last year when I got the European election results bang on and made the most accurate predictions in Cameron’s Cabinet reshuffle. I don’t expect to have got every prediction right, which will come as a relief to several MP friends from all parties who I have predicted will lose their seats. But this is an ongoing process and I fully expect to revise some of these predictions between now

Having completed the task I am so glad I undertook it, as it has confirmed several theories – one being that the Tories will pile up votes in seats where they don’t need them. This could well mean that Labour get the highest number of seats but the Tories get the most votes, by a reasonable margin.

In Scotland I just cannot see how the SNP can gain the number of seats many people are predicting. Some pundits predict with straight faces that the SNP will sweep the electoral board and end up with 30 to 40 seats. They have 6 at the moment, and try as I might I can’t get them above 18. If they do achieve more than that that it would be a political earthquake of epic proportions. They would be overturning Labour majorities of 15-20,000.

The most difficult thing to predict is how well UKIP and the Greens will do. Both could deny each of the major parties victory in many marginal seats. Labour ought to be gaining seats in North Wales, for example, but the strong UKIP vote there – where they are taking more Labour votes than Tory ones – may well mean they don’t take any at all. Indeed, in the North West of England that same phenomenon could mean the Tories picking up the odd Labour marginal.

The one prediction I am 100% confident in making is that the Liberal Democrats will lose more than half of their seats. A year ago I thought they’d end up with 30-35, back in October I revised that to 28-30. Now I have them on 24. It could get even worse, although I reckon Nick Clegg will be safe in Sheffield Hallam.

The most recent political phenomenon is the growth of the Greens. While I don’t see them winning any extra seats, it is perfectly possible for an increase in their vote to stop Labour winning in some key marginal seats. If the LibDem vote transfers to the Greens instead of Labour, Ed Miliband is in much bigger trouble than my headline prediction might suggest.

If my overall prediction is anywhere near correct, Britain is on the verge of months, or maybe years of political uncertainty. It would take three parties to form a coalition, and I doubt whether many of us can see that happening. A safer bet would be that no one could form a sustainable government and we could be in for a second election in the autumn which none but the main two parties could afford – and even Labour would find it difficult to raise the necessary money in such a short time. In the meantime the markets will get the jitters and the fragile economic recovery could well be threatened.

Welcome to five party politics. It’s not going to be an easy ride.

This article first appeared in The Independent on Sunday

UPDATE: To see the complete list of constituency predictions click HERE

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LBC 97.3: Iain talks to Gyles Brandreth about the Royal Baby

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 75: Teesside

18 Jan 2015 at 00:00

This is the seventy-fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Teesside

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 1,Lab 4, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 5

1. Hartlepool

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10758 (28.1%)
Labour: 16267 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 6533 (17.1%)
BNP: 2002 (5.2%)
UKIP: 2682 (7%)
MAJORITY: 5509 (14.4%)

Sitting MP: Iain Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

2. Middlesbrough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6283 (18.8%)
Labour: 15351 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 6662 (19.9%)
BNP: 1954 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1236 (3.7%)
Independent: 1969 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (26%)

Sitting MP: Andrew McDonald
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16461 (35.6%)
Labour: 18138 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 7340 (15.9%)
BNP: 1576 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1881 (4.1%)
Independent: 818 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 1677 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Tom Blenkinsop (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A surprisingly close result last time, but surely an increased Labour majority this time?

4. Redcar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5790 (13.8%)
Labour: 13741 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 18955 (45.2%)
BNP: 1475 (3.5%)
UKIP: 1875 (4.5%)
TUSC: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5214 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Ian Swales (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

How the LibDems won this seat last time is anyone’s guess. Any chance they had of hanging onto it disappeared when Ian Swaleds announced he wouldn’t stand again. Like the rest of us, he saw the writing on the wall.

5. Stockton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10247 (25.9%)
Labour: 16923 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 6342 (16.1%)
BNP: 1724 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1556 (3.9%)
English Dem: 1129 (2.9%)
Independent: 1577 (4%)
MAJORITY: 6676 (16.9%)

Sitting MP: Alex Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Stockton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19577 (38.9%)
Labour: 19245 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 7600 (15.1%)
BNP: 1553 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1471 (2.9%)
Christian: 302 (0.6%)
Independent: 536 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 332 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: James Wharton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This ought to be a dead cert Labour gain, and it may well prove to be, but the fact that the Ashcroft poll shows the Tories only marginally behind here gives them a lot of hope. Wharton has got a good local profile and may well depress the UKIP vote because of his strong Eurosceptic stance. I admit this is more of a hunch prediction than anything, but I think I’m allowed the odd one!

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Discusses Page 3 With Tracey Crouch, Margaret Hodge & John Thurso

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 74: Tyne & Wear

17 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the seventy-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Tyne & Wear

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Lab 12
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 12

1. *Blaydon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7159 (15.9%)
Labour: 22297 (49.6%)
Lib Dem: 13180 (29.3%)
BNP: 2277 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 9117 (20.3%)

Sitting MP: David Anderson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Gateshead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5716 (14.9%)
Labour: 20712 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 8163 (21.3%)
BNP: 1787 (4.7%)
Green: 379 (1%)
UKIP: 1103 (2.9%)
Christian: 131 (0.3%)
TUSC: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12549 (32.8%)

Sitting MP: Ian Mearns (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Houghton & Sunderland South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8147 (21.4%)
Labour: 19137 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 5292 (13.9%)
BNP: 1961 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1022 (2.7%)
Independent: 2462 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 10990 (28.9%)

Sitting MP: Bridget Phillipson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

4. Jarrow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8002 (20.6%)
Labour: 20910 (53.9%)
Lib Dem: 7163 (18.5%)
BNP: 2709 (7%)
MAJORITY: 12908 (33.3%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Hepburn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Newcastle upon Tyne Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6611 (19.4%)
Labour: 15694 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 8228 (24.1%)
BNP: 2302 (6.7%)
Green: 568 (1.7%)
UKIP: 754 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7466 (21.9%)

Sitting MP: Chi Onwurah (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

6. Newcastle upon Tyne East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6068 (16%)
Labour: 17043 (45%)
Lib Dem: 12590 (33.3%)
BNP: 1342 (3.5%)
Green: 620 (1.6%)
Others: 177 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4453 (11.8%)

Sitting MP: Nick Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Newcastle upon Tyne North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7966 (18.1%)
Labour: 17950 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 14536 (33.1%)
BNP: 1890 (4.3%)
Green: 319 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1285 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3414 (7.8%)

Sitting MP: Catherine McKinnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, but the LibDems had their chance here and they muffed it.

8. North Tyneside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8514 (18.3%)
Labour: 23505 (50.7%)
Lib Dem: 10621 (22.9%)
BNP: 1860 (4%)
UKIP: 1306 (2.8%)
Others: 599 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12884 (27.8%)

Sitting MP: Mary Glindon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

9. South Shields

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7886 (21.6%)
Labour: 18995 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5189 (14.2%)
BNP: 2382 (6.5%)
Green: 762 (2.1%)
Independent: 729 (2%)
Others: 575 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 11109 (30.4%)

Sitting MP: Emma Lewel-Buck
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

10. Sunderland Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12770 (30.1%)
Labour: 19495 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 7191 (16.9%)
BNP: 1913 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1094 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 6725 (15.8%)

Sitting MP: Julie Elliott
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

11. Tynemouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18121 (34.4%)
Labour: 23860 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 7845 (14.9%)
BNP: 1404 (2.7%)
Green: 538 (1%)
UKIP: 900 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5739 (10.9%)

Sitting MP: Alan Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Washington & Sunderland West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8157 (21.8%)
Labour: 19615 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 6382 (17.1%)
BNP: 1913 (5.1%)
UKIP: 1267 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 11458 (30.7%)

Sitting MP: Sharon Hodgson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC Book Club: Best of 2012 (Part 1)

Part 1 of 2. With Jack Straw, Lady Pamela Hicks, Peter Hennessy and President Mary Robinson.

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Video

WATCH: An Hour With MND Campaigners Gordon Aikman & Joe Pike

16 Jan 2015 at 22:04

This evening I interviewed Gordon Aikman and his partner Joe Pike. Gordon was Director of Policy for the Better Together Campaign when he was diagnosed with Motor Neurone Disease seven months ago. Motor Neurone Disease is a rare, debilitating and progressive disease. It attacks the nerves which carry messages from the brain and spinal cord to the muscles. It leads to weakness and muscle wasting, meaning that soon, Gordon will be in a wheelchair. Soon, he will struggle to feed himself and even breath. Soon, he will die. There is no cure.

Joe interned at Total Politics and then worked with me at LBC for a couple of years. He and Gordon have known each other since they were at university together but it was only more recently that they got together. They are going to do a regular audio diary for my programme so we can monitor what happens to Gordon and promote awareness of MND.

I knew this was going to be an emotional hour. My great fear was that I would blub and ruin the whole thing. As it turned out I didn’t, even though I think the three of us found the whole thing very emotional.

I hope you find listening to Gordon as inspirational as I did.

If you’d like to donate to his JustGiving page click HERE. His website is HERE. And you can follow Gordon’s diary on his LBC page HERE

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Video: Iain & Alex Hilton discuss the rise of blogging ... in 2006

GMTV with Steve Richards

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Diary

ConHome Diary: Discover Who my 'Tosser of the Week' Is! (Clue: It's Not Russell Brand)

16 Jan 2015 at 14:00

I’ve read some daft diary stories in my time – indeed, I’ve written quite a few of them – but the Londoner’s Diary took the biscuit on Thursday when they reckoned Nigel Farage’s new book THE PURPLE REVOLUTION (which I am publishing on 5 March) could count as a UKIP election expense. Laugh? I nearly wet myself. Apparently if spending topped £20,000 Biteback would have to declare it as a political donation to UKIP, according to the ever-helpful Electoral Commission. Bollocks to that. I’ll just have to cancel the planned launch party in Monaco, I suppose. In all seriousness, how any book by a politician can be considered any sort of election expense I just don’t know. Neither Farage nor UKIP will have any expense in the production of the book. The risk is entirely ours. So I ask again, how is an expense? Answer. It isn’t.
*
I’ve finally finished my seat by seat predictions for the general election. It’s been a mammoth task to predict 650 seats, but I am glad I did it. It’s taught me a lot about how the election is likely to pan out and highlighted some trends which I wouldn’t necessarily been aware of previously. Of course, the work isn’t finished as I will continue to update each seat as I learn more about them. I’ve already revised one or two seats having gleaned more information from local sources, including Loughborough where I now predict a Nicky Morgan hold. I’ve put my money where my mouth is in these predictions, which, if you haven’t seen them yet, you can find HERE [ add link http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/29/general-election-predictions-the-complete-list ]. I look forward to other pundits and commentators doing the same, but as usual, most will firmly sit on the fence, then afterwards say it was the result they had predicted all along. Anyway, you can find out what my final predictions are in The Independent on Sunday this Sunday, or check out my blog at www.iaindale.com.
*

So Peter Oborne reckons George Osborne wouldn’t stand in any future leadership contest and would throw his weight behind Boris Johnson. Really? No, really? Nope, me neither.
*
My Tosser of the Week has to go to the comedian who is standing in Thanet South. No, I’m not referring to Nigel Farage, but to The Pub Landlord, Al Murray. The coverage given to his non-historic announcement this week has been quite unbelievable. It’s symptomatic of a media which is desperate to see the UKIP leader fall on his feet. For some reason most pundits seem to be of the view that Murray would take votes off Farage. I suspect if he gets any votes at all they will come from disillusioned former supporters of the mainstream parties. We’ll soon see, but I doubt if he will get more than a couple of hundred votes. Why? Because the voters of South Thanet will eventually realise that far from causing them to laugh, he’s actually laughing AT them. And they won’t like it.
*

I went over to the dark side last year and ditched my Blackberry in favour of an iPhone 5S. I’ve surprised myself and liked it more than I thought I would, but now it’s time for an upgrade. And I have to answer that eternal questions. Do I go for an iPhone 6 or a 6+? I think that comes under the banner of #FirstWorldProblems.
*
Take it from me, David Cameron will take part in the election debates, whatever the shilly-shallying this week. Those who think it’s a mistake need to shut up and develop a strategy where Cameron can emerge smelling of roses. It’s just not possible for Cameron to shun any of the debates and he should never have threatened to. However, what I suspect will happen now is that the Greens will after all be deemed a major party for Ofcom and ITV will invite them to take part in the third multi-party debate. That will then trigger a legal challenge by the SNP, who think they should take part too. Uncle Tom Cobley may then seek a judicial review! All very unseemly, but all eminently predictable. It’s actually the broadcasters’ own fault. They should have set up a formal debates commission after the election which could have solved all these problems totally independent of the political parties and broadcasters. That must happen later this year so we don’t have these squabbles next time around.
*

I’m reading former Aussie Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s autobiography at the moment. It’s one of the few political memoirs I have read which has entirely transformed my view of the subject. Fair dinkum. I particularly liked the passage where she says of her predecessor – and successor, for that matter – Kevin Rudd: “I don’t like to think in swear words, but he was a fucking shit.” That’s my girl. I love Australian politics. Their politicians make ours look like pussies.
*
If you’re near a radio tonight tune into my LBC show at 7pm. You might need a good supply of Kleenex too. I’m doing an hour with Gordon Aikman, who is dying of Motor Neurone Disease. He was Policy Officer for the Better Together campaign in Scotland when he was diagnosed. He’s only 29 and is likely to die within twelve months. He’s now made it his life’s mission to raise awareness of the disease and ensure better care for future victims of MND. He’s raised a six figure sum and already changed public policy in Scotland. We’re going to follow his story over the next few months, not in a mawkish way, but because he wants people to know what happens when you get this terrible illness. I know his story will be an inspiration to everyone listening.
*

So the Conservative new election slogan is “A Britain Living Within Its Means”. Well that should get them out of bed and down the polling station on a cold Thursday morning in Auchtermuchty, shouldn’t it? Possibly one of the least exciting election slogans since, well, er, the last one. Come on boys and girls, surely you can do better than that. Something like “Britain’s on the Right Path – Don’t Let Labour Ruin it. Again”. Well it works for me…

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LBC Book Club: Iain talks to June Brown

Iain talks to June Brown, aka Dot Cotton, about her autobiography

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 73: Northern Ireland (Part 2)

16 Jan 2015 at 10:11

This is the seventy-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

I admit to knowing very little about Northern Irish politics so I have by and large kept each seat to a hold for the party that won it in 2010. I will revise these predictions depending on information received. There seems to be very little polling information or constituency information on the net. So do please leave comments!

Northern Ireland (Part 2)

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1

10. Mid Ulster

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 21,239 (52.0%, +4.4%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4%, -9.1%)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3%, -3.1%)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0%, +0.3%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3%)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 1.0%
Majority: 15,363

BY-ELECTION
Francie Molloy (SF) 17,462 (46.9%, -5.1%)
Nigel Lutton (Independent) 12,781 (34.4%)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,478 (17.4%, +3.1%)
Eric Bullick (Alliance) 487 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Majority: 4,681

Sitting MP: Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

11. Newry & Armagh

Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 18,857 (42.0%, +0.6%)
Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4%, -1.8%)
Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1%, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8%, -5.6%)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2%)
Majority: 8,331

Sitting MP: Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

12. North Antrim

Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 19,672 (46.4%, -10.2%)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8%)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,265 (12.4%, -1.8%)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9%, -4.1%)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8%, -2.2%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2%, +0.1%)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4%)
Majority: 12,558

Sitting MP: Ian Paisley Jnr (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

13. North Down

*Sylvia Hermon (Independent) 21,181 (63.3%)
Ian Parsley (UCUNF) 6,817 (20.4%, -32.5%)
@Stephen Farry (Alliance) 1,876 (5.6%, -2.0%)
Mary Kilpatrick (TUV) 1,634 (4.9%)
Steven Agnew (Green) 1,043 (3.1%)
Liam Logan (SDLP) 680 (2.0%, -1.1%)
Vincent Parker (Sinn Féin) 250 (0.8%, +0.2%)
Majority: 14,364

Sitting MP: Lady Sylvia Hermon (Ind)
Prediction: Independent hold

14. South Antrim

@William McCrea (DUP) 11,536 (33.9%, -6.4%)
Reg Empey (UCUNF) 10,353 (30.4, +0.8%)
@Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Féin) 4,729 (13.9%, +3.2%)
Michelle Byrne (SDLP) 2,955 (8.7% -2.5%)
Alan Lawther (Alliance) 2,607 (7.7%, -0.6%)
Melwyn Lucas (TUV) 1,829 (5.4%)
Majority: 1,183

Sitting MP: William McCrea (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

15. South Down

Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) 20,648 (48.5%, +1.7%)
Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Féin) 12,236 (28.7%, +1.7%)
Jim Wells (DUP) 3,645 (8.6%, -7.5%)
John McCallister (UCUNF) 3,093 (7.3% -1.5%)
Ivor McConnell (TUV) 1,506 (3.5%)
Cadogan Enright (Green) 901 (2.1%)
David Griffin (Alliance) 560 (1.3%, ±0%)
Majority: 8,412

Sitting MP: Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

16. Strangford

Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Féin) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)
Majority: 5,876

Sitting MP: Jim Shannon (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

17. Upper Bann

David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
John O’Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Majority: 3,361

Sitting MP: David Simpson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

18. West Tyrone

@Pat Doherty (Sinn Féin) 18,050 (48.4%, +9.5%)
@Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,365 (19.8%, +2.0%)
Ross Hussey (UCUNF) 5,281 (14.2%, +7.3%)
Joe Byrne (SDLP) 5,212 (14.0%, +4.9%)
Michael Bower (Alliance) 859 (2.3%)
Ciaran McClean (Independent) 508 (1.4%)
Majority: 10,685

Sitting MP: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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Video: Iain's Short Documentay on the Rwandan Genocide

Iain reports from Rwanda for 18 Doughty Street, July 2007

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 72: Northern Ireland (Part 1)

16 Jan 2015 at 09:00

This is the seventy-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

I admit to knowing very little about Northern Irish politics so I have by and large kept each seat to a hold for the party that won it in 2010. I will revise these predictions depending on information received. There seems to be very little polling information or constituency information on the net. So do please leave comments!

Northern Ireland (Part 1)

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 2, Alliance 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: DUP 5, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 2

1. Belfast East

Naomi Long (Alliance) 12,839 (37.2%, +26.1%)
Peter Robinson (DUP) 11,306 (32.8%, -19.6%)
Trevor Ringland (UCUNF) 7,305 (21.2%, -9.7%)
David Vance (TUV) 1,856 (5.4%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin) 817 (2.4%, ±0)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 365 (1.1%, -1.0%)
Majority: 1,533

Sitting MP: Naomi Long (Alliance)
Prediction: DUP gain

2. Belfast North

Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0%, -5.6%)
Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 12,588 (34.0%, +5.4%)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3%, -3.9%)
Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7%, +0.6%)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9%, +3.5%)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1%)
Majority 2,224

Sitting MP: Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

3. Belfast South

Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Majority: 5,926

Sitting MP: Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

4. Belfast West

Gerry Adams (Sinn Féin) 22,840 (71.1%, +3.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4%, +0.4%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6%, -3.2%)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1% +0.6%)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9% , +1.8%)
Majority: 17,579

BY ELECTION
Paul Maskey (SF) 16,211 (70.6%, -0.5%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3088 (13.5%, -2.9%)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1751 (7.6%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1393 (6.1%, -1.5%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 386 (1.7%, -1.4%)
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 122 (0.5%, -1.4%)
Majority: 13,123

Sitting MP: Paul Maskey (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

5. East Antrim

Sammy Wilson (DUP) 13,993 (45.9%, -1.0%)
Rodney McCune (UCUNF) 7,223 (23.7%, -1.4%)
Gerry Lynch (Alliance) 3,377 (11.1%, -3.6%)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin) 2,064 (6.8%, +1.4%)
Justin McCamphill (SDLP) 2,019 (6.6%, -0.8%)
Samuel Morrison (TUV) 1,826 (6.0%)
Majority 6,770

Sitting MP: Sammy Wilson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

6. East Londonderry

Gregory Campbell (DUP) 12,097 (34.6%, -6.4%)
Cathal Ó hOisín (Sinn Féin) 6,742 (19.3%, +1.9%)
Lesley Macaulay (UCUNF) 6,218 (17.8%, -1.9%)
Thomas Conway (SDLP) 5,399 (15.5% -3.8%)
William Ross (TUV) 2,572 (7.4%)
Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance) 1,922 (5.5%, +3.1%)
Majority 5355

Sitting MP: Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

7. Fermanagh & South Tyrone

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) 21,304 (45.5%, +7.3%)
Rodney Connor (Independent) 21,300 (45.5%)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 3,574 (7.6%, -7.2%)
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 437 (0.9%)
John Stevenson (Independent) 188 (0.4%)
Majority: 4

Sitting MP: Michelle Gildernow (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

8. Foyle

Mark Durkan (SDLP) 16,922 (44.7%, -1.7%)
Martina Anderson (Sinn Féin) 12,098 (31.9% -1.4%)
Maurice Devenney (DUP) 4,489 (11.9%, -2.2%)
Eamonn McCann (People Before Profit) 2,936 (7.8%)
David Harding (UCUNF) 1,221 (3.2%, +0.9%)
Keith McGrellis (Alliance) 223 (0.6%)
Majority: 4,824

Sitting MP: Mark Durkan (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

9. Lagan Valley

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8%, -8.5%)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1%, -1.9%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4%, +0.5%)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6%)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0%, +1.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Féin) 1,465 (4.0%, -0.3%)
Majority: 10,486

Sitting MP: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain talks to a Shoplifter

LBC interview

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 71: Merseyside (Part 2)

15 Jan 2015 at 17:00

This is the seventy-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Merseyside (Part 2)

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5

9. Sefton Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)

Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Probably an increased majority.

10. Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here.

11. St Helens North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)

Sitting MP: Dave Watts (Lab)
Preediction: Labour hold

12. St Helens South & Whiston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)

Sitting MP: Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

13. Wallasey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)

Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

14. Wirral South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)

Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour just held on to this seat last time. If the LibDem vote goes their way they will do so again.

15. Wirral West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Esther McVey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Liverpool Labour are determined to win this seat back, but the Ashcroft poll has Esther McVey only one point behind, which surely has to be encouraging for her. I reckon she’ll pull it off, but there may be only a few hundred votes in it.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale interviews Conrad Black

Half an hour with the former Telegraph publisher, talking about his new memoir, A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE.

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General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 70: Merseyside (Part 1)

15 Jan 2015 at 13:00

This is the seventieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Merseyside (Part 1)

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 8

1. Birkenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)

Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Bootle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)

Sitting MP: Joe Benton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Garston & Halewood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)

Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Knowsley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)

Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Liverpool Riverside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)

Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Liverpool Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)

Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

7. Liverpool Wavertree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)

Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Liverpool West Derby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Richard Davenport-Hines

Richard Davenport-Hines talks about his new book AN ENGLISH AFFAIR and the impact of the Profumo scandal on British society.

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