General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 7: Central London

24 Apr 2017 at 09:29

LONDON CENTRAL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 8: Con 3, Lab 3

Cities of London & Westminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19264 (52.2%)
Labour: 8188 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 7574 (20.5%)
Green: 778 (2.1%)
UKIP: 664 (1.8%)
English Dem: 191 (0.5%)
Independent: 98 (0.3%)
Others: 174 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11076 (30%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Field 19,570 54.1 +1.9
Labour Nik Slingsby 9,899 27.4 +5.2
Liberal Democrat Belinda Brooks-Gordon 2,521 7.0 -13.5
Green Hugh Small 1,953 5.4 +3.4
UKIP Robert Stephenson 1,894 5.2 +3.4
CISTA Edouard-Henri Desforges 160 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Jill McLachlan 129 0.4 N/A
Class War Adam Clifford 59 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,671 26.7 -3.3
Turnout 36,185 59.3 +3.8

Leave Vote: 23.79%

Sitting MP: Mark Field (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Holborn & St Pancras

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11134 (20.4%)
Labour: 25198 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 15256 (27.9%)
BNP: 779 (1.4%)
Green: 1480 (2.7%)
UKIP: 587 (1.1%)
English Dem: 75 (0.1%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 44 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9942 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Keir Starmer 29,062 52.9 +6.8
Conservative Will Blair 12,014 21.9 +1.5
Green Natalie Bennett 7,013 12.8 +10.1
Liberal Democrat Jill Fraser 3,555 6.5 −21.4
UKIP Maxine Spencer 2,740 5.0 +3.9
CISTA Shane O’Donnell 252 0.5 N/A
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson 173 0.3 N/A
Socialist Equality David O’Sullivan 108 0.2 N/A
Majority 17,048 31.0 +13.1
Turnout 54,917 63.3 +0.4

Leave Vote: 25.92%
Sitting MP: Sir Keir Starmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Islington South & Finsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8449 (19.4%)
Labour: 18407 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 14838 (34.1%)
Green: 710 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (1.6%)
English Dem: 301 (0.7%)
Others: 149 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3569 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emily Thornberry 22,547 50.9 +8.7
Conservative Mark Lim 9,839 22.2 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Terry Stacy 4,829 10.9 −23.2
UKIP Pete Muswell 3,375 7.6 +6.0
Green Charlie Kiss 3,371 7.6 +6.0
CISTA Jay Kirton 309 0.7 N/A
Majority 12,708 28.7 +20.5
Turnout 44,270 65.0 +0.6

Leave Vote: 29.8%

Sitting MP: Emily Thornbury (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Kensington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17595 (50.1%)
Labour: 8979 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 6872 (19.6%)
Green: 753 (2.1%)
UKIP: 754 (2.1%)
Others: 197 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8616 (24.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Borwick9 18,199 52.3 +2.2
Labour Rod Abouharb 10,838 31.1 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Robin McGhee 1,962 5.6 −13.9
Green Robina Rose 1,765 5.1 +2.9
UKIP Jack Bovill10 1,557 4.5 +2.3
CISTA Tony Auguste 211 0.6 +0.6
Animal Welfare Andrew Knight 158 0.5 +0.5
Alliance for Green Socialism Toby Abse 115 0.3 −0.2
New Independent Centralists Roland Courtenay 23 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,361 21.1 −3.4
Turnout 34,828 57.0 +3.7

Sitting MP: Victoria Borwick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Poplar & Limehouse

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12649 (27.1%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Lib Dem: 5209 (11.2%)
Green: 449 (1%)
UKIP: 565 (1.2%)
Respect: 8160 (17.5%)
English Dem: 470 (1%)
Independent: 293 (0.6%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6030 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Fitzpatrick11 29,886 58.5 +18.6
Conservative Chris Wilford11 12,962 25.4 -1.7
UKIP Nicholas McQueen11 3,128 6.1 +4.9
Green Maureen Childs11 2,463 4.8 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Elaine Bagshaw12 2,149 4.2 -6.9
TUSC Hugo Pierre11 367 0.7 +0.7
Red Flag Anti-Corruption Rene Claudel Mugenzi11 89 0.2 +0.2
Majority 16,924 33.1 +20.2
Turnout 51,044 62.2 -0.1

Leave Vote: 34.07%

Sitting MP: Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Westminster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15251 (38.5%)
Labour: 17377 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 5513 (13.9%)
BNP: 334 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.2%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
English Dem: 99 (0.3%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 101 (0.3%)
Others: 32 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2126 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Karen Buck Labour 18,504 46.8 +2.9
Lindsey Hall Conservative 16,527 41.8 +3.3
Nigel Sussman UKIP 1,489 3.8 +3.0
Kirsty Allan Liberal Democrat 1,457 3.7 –10.2
Jennifer Nadel Green 1,322 3.3 +2.1
Gabriela Fajardo Christian 152 0.4 +0.2
Charles Ward Independent 63 0.2
Majority: 2,126 (5.4%)
Swing: 0.6% from Lab to Con

Leave Vote: 30.03%
Sitting MP: Karen Buck (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Last time I predicted the Labour majority should increase by a couple of thousand at the very least. It didn’t. It remained static. If the Labour vote dribbles to the LibDems and the Tories can pick up half the UKIP vote this could be a very tight race indeed, and the Conservatives will be putting a lot of effort into this seat. They ought to take it.

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LBC 97.3: Iain Dale interviews Polar Explorer Dwayne Fields

Dwayne Fields is embarking on a trip to the South Pole. He tells Iain Dale why.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 6: Scotland - Borders & Ayrshire

23 Apr 2017 at 21:54

Scotland – Borders & Ayrshire

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6, Con 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 4, Con 3

1. North Ayshire & Arran

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7212 (15.6%)
Labour: 21860 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (25.9%)
Others: 449 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9895 (21.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Patricia Gibson 28,641 53.2 +27.2
Labour Katy Clark 15,068 28.0 -19.4
Conservative Jamie Greene 7,968 14.8 -0.8
UKIP Sharon McGonigal5 1,296 2.4 n/a
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 896 1.7 -8.4
Majority 13,573 25.2
Turnout 53,869 71.1 +9.6

Sitting MP: Patricia Gibson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

2. Central Ayrshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8943 (20.4%)
Labour: 20950 (47.7%)
Lib Dem: 5236 (11.9%)
SNP: 8364 (19%)
Others: 422 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12007 (27.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Philippa Whitford 26,999 53.2 +34.1
Labour Brian Donohoe 13,410 26.4 −21.3
Conservative Marc Hope7 8,803 17.3 −3.0
Liberal Democrat Gordon Bain8 917 1.8 -10.1
Scottish Green Veronika Tudhope9 645 1.3 N/A
Majority 13,589 26.8 n/a
Turnout 50,774 72.5 +8.3

Sitting MP: Philippa Whitford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

3. Kilmarnock & Loudoun

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6592 (14.2%)
Labour: 24460 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 3419 (7.3%)
SNP: 12082 (26%)
MAJORITY: 12378 (26.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alan Brown 30,000 55.7 +29.7
Labour Co-op Cathy Jamieson5 16,362 30.4 −22.1
Conservative Brian Whittle6 6,752 12.5 −1.7
Liberal Democrat Rodney Ackland7 789 1.5 −5.8
Majority 13,638 25.3
Turnout 53,903 71.6 +8.8

Sitting MP: Alan Brown (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

4. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16555 (33.8%)
Labour: 5003 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 22230 (45.4%)
SNP: 4497 (9.2%)
UKIP: 595 (1.2%)
Others: 134 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5675 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Calum Kerr6 20,145 36.6 +27.4
Conservative John Lamont7 19,817 36.0 +2.2
Liberal Democrats Michael Moore7 10,294 18.7 −26.7
Labour Kenryck Jones8 2,700 4.9 −5.3
UKIP Peter Neilson8 1,316 2.4 +1.2
Scottish Green Pauline Stewart9 631 1.1 N/A
Independent Jesse Rae8 135 0.2 N/A
Majority 328 0.6 n/a
Turnout 55,038 74.2 +7.8

Sitting MP: Calum Kerr (SNP)
Prediction: *Conservative
gain

If the Conservatives don’t win this seat they are unlikely to make many gains in Scotland. They may take a good proportion of the UKIP vote, which could seem them home on its own.

5. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17457 (38%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 9080 (19.8%)
SNP: 4945 (10.8%)
Green: 510 (1.1%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 4194 (9.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mundell 20,759 39.8 +1.8
SNP Emma Harper 19,961 38.3 +27.5
Labour Archie Dryburgh 7,711 14.8 -14.1
UKIP Kevin Newton 1,472 2.8 +1.4
Liberal Democrats Amanda Kubie 1,392 2.7 -17.1
Scottish Green Jody Jamieson 839 1.6 +0.5
Majority 798 1.5 -7.6
Turnout 52,134 76.1 +7.2

Sitting MP: David Mundell (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

David Mundell managed to hold off the SNP last time, but only just. The SNP will move heaven and earth to oust him in June, but much will depend where the Labour vote goes. This one really is on a knife-edge, but a combination of Mundell’s personal vote and Ruth Davidson’s popularity ought to see him home. But I wouldn’t bet my house on it.

6. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11721 (25.5%)
Labour: 21632 (47.1%)
Lib Dem: 4264 (9.3%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJORITY: 9911 (21.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Corri Wilson 25,492 48.8 +30.8
Labour Sandra Osborne 14,227 27.3 −19.9
Conservative Lee Lyons 10,355 19.8 −5.7
UKIP Joseph Adam-Smith4 1,280 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 855 1.6 −7.7
Majority 11,265 21.6 N/A
Turnout 52,209 71.5 +8.9

Sitting MP: Corri Wilson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

The SNP MP will be happy to have a split opposition. It wasn’t that long ago that this was a Tory seat and this should be a long term target for them. But it’s too early this time.

7. Dumfries & Galloway

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16501 (31.6%)
Labour: 23950 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 4608 (8.8%)
SNP: 6419 (12.3%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 7449 (14.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Richard Arkless 23,440 41.4 +29.1
Conservative Finlay Carson 16,926 29.9 -1.7
Labour Russell Brown 13,982 24.7 -21.2
UKIP Geoffrey Siddall 1,301 2.3 +1.0
Liberal Democrats Andrew Metcalf 953 1.7 -7.1
Majority 6,514 11.5 n/a
Turnout 56,602 75.2 +5.2

Sitting MP: Richard Arkless (SNP)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Labour’s Russell Brown was beaten into third place in 2015 and I don’t expect Labour to do better this time. Having been a Tory constituency, they will do their damndest to win this back from the SNP. I’m going to take a punt and predict that they will achieve this aim on June 8th. By no means a dead cert, though.

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Iain has a blazing row with George Galloway over Margaret Thatcher (Part 1)

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 5: Wales - Gwynedd & Powys

23 Apr 2017 at 21:05

Gwynedd

Seats: 3
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Plaid Cymru 3

1. Arfon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4416 (16.9%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Lib Dem: 3666 (14.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (36%)
UKIP: 685 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 1455 (5.6%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Hywel Williams 11,790 43.9 +7.9
Labour Alun Pugh 8,122 30.3 -0.1
Conservative Anwen Barry 8 3,521 13.1 −3.8
UKIP Simon Wall 2,277 8.5 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Mohammed Shultan 718 2.7 -11.4
Socialist Labour Kathrine Jones 409 1.5 n/a
Majority 3,668 13.7 +8.1

Leave vote 43%

Sitting MP: Hywel Williams (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

2. Dwyfor Meironnydd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6447 (22.3%)
Labour: 4021 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 3538 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 12814 (44.3%)
UKIP: 776 (2.7%)
Independent: 1310 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 6367 (22%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Liz Saville-Roberts 11,811 40.9 −3.5
Conservative Neil Fairlamb 6,550 22.7 +0.4
Labour Mary Clarke 3,904 13.5 −0.4
UKIP Christopher Gillibrand5 3,126 10.8 +8.1
Independent Louise Hughes 1,388 4.8 +0.3
Liberal Democrat Steven Churchman 1,153 4.0 −8.3
Green Marc Fothergill 981 3.4 n/a
Majority 5,261 18.2 −3.8
Turnout 28,913 65.1 +1.4

Leave vote 55.7%

Sitting MP: Liz Saville-Roberts (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

The Plaid result dropped here last time, presumably because the sitting MR Elfin Llwyd had a large personal vote. If the Tories can pick up votes from UKIP and Labour this could become a highly marginal seat, especially given its high Leave vote in the referendum.

3. Ynys Mon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7744 (22.5%)
Labour: 11490 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 2592 (7.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.2%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.5%)
Christian: 163 (0.5%)
Independent: 2225 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 2461 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Albert Owen 10,871 31.1 −2.2
Plaid Cymru John Rowlands 10,642 30.5 +4.3
Conservative Michelle Willis 7,393 21.2 −1.3
UKIP Nathan Gill 5,121 14.7 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Mark Rosenthal8 751 2.2 −5.4
Socialist Labour Liz Screen 148 0.4 N/A
Majority 229 0.7 −6.4
Turnout 34,926 69.9 +1.1

Leave vote: 52.97%

Sitting MP: Albert Owen (Lab)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

This seat has been held by the Tories, Labour and Plaid in the last thirty years. In 1992 and 1997 it went Plaid but since then the Labour majority has been increasing. This came to a shattering stop in 2015 when Albert Owen only held the seat by 228 votes. In my opinion he will not hold onto his seat and it will either go to Plaid or to the Tories. If the Tories can take 3,000 votes from UKIP and eat into the Labour vote, it’s very possible they can take the seat. However, I’m calling it for Plaid at the moment.

Powys

Seats: 2
Current Political Makeup: Con 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2

1. Brecon & Radnorshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Davies 16,453 41.1 +4.5
Liberal Democrat Roger Williams 11,351 28.3 −17.8
Labour Matthew Dorrance 5,904 14.7 +4.2
UKIP Darran Thomas 10 3,338 8.3 +6.1
Plaid Cymru Freddy Greaves 1,767 4.4 +1.9
Green Chris Carmichael 1,261 3.1 +2.3
Majority 5,102 12.7
Turnout 40,074 73.8 +1

Leave vote: 50.36%

Sitting MP: Christopher Davies
Prediction: Conservative hold

The UKIP vote defecting to the Conservatives should guarantee this remains a Tory seat.

2. Montgomeryshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13976 (41.3%)
Labour: 2407 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 12792 (37.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.3%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.3%)
Independent: 324 (1%)
Others: 384 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1184 (3.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Glyn Davies 15,204 45.0 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds9 9,879 29.3 −8.6
UKIP Des Parkinson10 3,769 11.2 +7.8
Labour Martyn Singleton11 1,900 5.6 −1.5
Plaid Cymru Ann Griffith12 1,745 5.2 −3.1
Green Richard Chaloner 1,260 3.7 N/A
Majority 5,325 15.8 +12.3
Turnout 33,757 69.3 −0.1

Leave vote: 54.83%
Sitting MP: Glyn Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Glyn Davies won this seat in part because Lembit Opik outstayed his welcome. He’s proved to be quite popular and although the LibDems will they can retake it, they failed to in 2015 and I doubt whether they can pull it off again, especially when the Leave vote was so high here.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Andrew Marr

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 4. Somerset

22 Apr 2017 at 23:51

SOMERSET

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5

1. Bridgwater & Somerset West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24675 (45.3%)
Labour: 9332 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 15426 (28.3%)
BNP: 1282 (2.4%)
Green: 859 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.8%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 9249 (17%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ian Liddell-Grainger 25,020 46.0 +0.7
UKIP Stephen Fitzgerald 10,437 19.2 +14.4
Labour Michael Lerry 9,589 17.6 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Theo Butt Philip7 6,765 12.4 -15.9
Green Julie Harvey-Smith 2,636 4.8 +3.3
Majority 14,583 26.8 +9.8
Turnout 54,447 67.6 -3.6

Sitting MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Somerton & Frome

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26976 (44.5%)
Labour: 2675 (4.4%)
Lib Dem: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.2%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1817 (3%)

Conservative David Warburton 31,960 53.0 +8.5
Liberal Democrat David Rendel 11,692 19.4 −28.1
UKIP Alan Dimmick8 6,439 10.7 +7.5
Green Theo Simon 5,434 9.0 +9.0
Labour David Oakensen 4,419 7.3 +2.9
Independent Ian Angell 365 0.6 +0.6
Majority 20,268 33.6
Turnout 60,309 72.2 −2.1

Sitting MP: David Warburton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

An astonishing turaround in 2015 when the Conservatives turned a LibDem majority of 1800 into a Tory majority of more than 20,000. I can’t see any possibility of the LibDems reversing that result.

3. Taunton Deane

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24538 (42.2%)
Labour: 2967 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 28531 (49.1%)
UKIP: 2114 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 3993 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rebecca Pow 27,849 48.1 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Rachel Gilmour 12,358 21.3 -27.7
UKIP Laura Bailhache 6,921 12.0 +8.3
Labour Neil Guild 5,347 9.2 +4.1
Green Clive Martin 2,630 4.5 +4.5
Independent Mike Rigby 2,568 4.4 +4.4
TUSC Stephen German 118 0.2 +0.2
Independent Bruce Gauld 96 0.2 +0.2
Majority 15,491 26.8 +19.9
Turnout 57,887 70.7 +0.2
Sitting MP: Rebecca Pow (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Again, a Tory majority which I find difficult to see how it can be reversed. Jeremy Browne’s old seat.

4. Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23760 (42.5%)
Labour: 4198 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 24560 (44%)
BNP: 1004 (1.8%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1711 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 800 (1.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Heappey 26,247 46.1 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Tessa Munt 18,662 32.8 −11.2
UKIP Helen Hims10 5,644 9.9 +6.9
Labour Chris Inchley 3,780 6.6 −0.9
Green Jon Cousins 2,331 4.1 +3.0
Independent Paul Arnold 83 0.1 +0.1
Birthday Dave Dobbs 81 0.1 +0.1
Independent Gypsy Watkins11 76 0.1 + 0.1
Majority 7,585 13.3
Turnout 56,904 71.7

Sitting MP: James Heapey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If the LibDems are to make any gains in Somerset, the second most likely one is Wells. Having said that James Heappy will expect to eat into the Tory vote. Tessa Munt is standing again and she is not to be underestimated. She’s a good campaigner. However, I don’t see an upset here.

5. Yeovil

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18807 (32.9%)
Labour: 2991 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 31843 (55.7%)
BNP: 1162 (2%)
UKIP: 2357 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 13036 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Marcus Fysh 24,158 42.5 +9.6
Liberal Democrat David Laws 18,865 33.1 −22.6
UKIP Simon Smedley9 7,646 13.4 +9.3
Labour Sheena King 4,053 7.1 +1.9
Green Emily McIvor 2,191 3.8 n/a
Majority 5,293 9.3
Turnout 56,933 69.1

Sitting MP: Marcus Fysh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative hold

David Laws had a 13,000 majority. He’s not restanding having lost a 13,000 majority in 2015. As in Taunton Deane there’s a UKIP vote to eat into here, but conversely there’s also more of a Labour vote for the LibDems to attract here. I still believe this will be a Tory hold. UPDATE 24/4 The resignation of LibDem candidate Daisy Benson is a big blow to LibDem hopes here. She has been energetic but says she cannot stand because she’s in the middle of buying a house. Odd.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Small_iainwesthamhead

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale Clashes With Jim in Eltham

During a phone in on gay marriage Jim is rather anti. But he says he is not homophobic. Never let it be said. Let the fireworks begin.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 3. Cornwall

21 Apr 2017 at 22:51

CORNWALL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6

1. Camborne & Redruth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15969 (37.6%)
Labour: 6945 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 15903 (37.4%)
Green: 581 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2152 (5.1%)
Others: 943 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 66 (0.2%

2015 Result:
Conservative George Eustice 18,452 40.2 +2.6
Labour Michael Foster 11,448 25.0 +8.6
UKIP Bob Smith 6,776 14.8 +9.7
Liberal Democrat Julia Goldsworthy* 5,687 12.4 -25.0
Green Geoff Garbett 2,608 5.7 +4.3
Mebyon Kernow Loveday Jenkin 897 2.0 +0.1
Majority 7,004 15.3 +15.1
Turnout 45,868 68.5 +2.1

Sitting MP: George Eustice (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19531 (41.7%)
Labour: 1971 (4.2%)
Lib Dem: 22512 (48.1%)
UKIP: 2300 (4.9%)
Others: 530 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2981 (6.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Scott Mann 21,689 45.0 +3.3
Liberal Democrat Dan Rogerson 15,068 31.2 −16.8
UKIP Julie Lingard 6,121 12.7 +7.8
Labour John Whitby 2,621 5.4 +1.2
Green Amanda Pennington 2,063 4.3 +4.3
Mebyon Kernow Jerry Jefferies 631 1.3 +0.2
Restore the Family John Allman 52 0.1 +0.1
Majority 6,621 13.7
Turnout 48,245 71.8 +3.6

Sitting MP: Scott Mann (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. St Austell & Newquay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18877 (40%)
Labour: 3386 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (42.7%)
BNP: 1022 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1757 (3.7%)
Others: 2007 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 1312 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Steve Double 20,250 40.2 +0.2
Liberal Democrat Steve Gilbert 12,077 24.0 -18.8
UKIP David Mathews8 8,503 16.9 +13.2
Labour Deborah Hopkins 5,150 10.2 +3.1
Green Steve Slade 2,318 4.6 N/A
Mebyon Kernow Dick Cole 2,063 4.1 -0.2
Majority 8,173 16.2
Turnout 50,361 65.7 +3.8

Sitting MP: Stephen Double (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. St Ives

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17900 (39%)
Labour: 3751 (8.2%)
Lib Dem: 19619 (42.7%)
Green: 1308 (2.8%)
UKIP: 2560 (5.6%)
Others: 783 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1719 (3.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative 18,491 38.3 −0.7
Liberal Democrat 16,022 33.2 −9.6
UKIP 5,720 11.8 +6.3
Labour 4,510 9.3 +1.2
Green 3,051 6.3 +3.5
Mebyon Kernow 518 1.1 +0.2
Majority: 2,469 (5.1%)
Swing: 4.5% from Lib Dem to Con

Sitting MP: Derek Thomas (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

This is the constituency most likely to go back to the LibDems but Derek Thomas should hold on if he can win the majority of the 2015 Ukip vote.

5. South East Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22390 (45.1%)
Labour: 3507 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 19170 (38.6%)
Green: 826 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3083 (6.2%)
Others: 641 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3220 (6.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sheryll Murray 25,516 50.5 +5.4
Liberal Democrat Phil Hutty 8,521 16.9 −21.8
UKIP Bradley Monk 7,698 15.2 +9.0
Labour Declan Lloyd 4,692 9.3 +2.2
Green Martin Corney 2,718 5.4 +3.7
Mebyon Kernow Andrew Long 6 1,003 2.0 +0.7
Independent George Trubody 350 0.7 +0.7
Majority 16,995 33.7 +28.2
Turnout 50,498 71.1 +2.4

Sitting MP: Sheryll Murray (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Truro & Falmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20349 (41.7%)
Labour: 4697 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 19914 (40.8%)
Green: 858 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.9%)
Others: 1039 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 435 (0.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sarah Newton 22,681 44.0 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Simon Rix 8,681 16.8 -24.0
Labour Stuart Roden7 7,814 15.2 +5.5
UKIP John Hyslop8 5,967 11.6 +7.7
Green Karen Westbrook9 4,483 8.7 +6.9
Independent Loic Rich10 792 1.5 N/A
Mebyon Kernow Stephen Richardson11 563 1.1 -1.0
National Health Action Rik Evans 526 1.0 N/A
Principles of Politics Stanley Guffogg 37 0.1 N/A
Majority 14,000 27.2
Turnout 51,544 70.0 +0.9

Sitting MP: Sarah Newton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 2. Norfolk

21 Apr 2017 at 22:07

NORFOLK

Seats: 9
Current State of the Parties: Con 7, Labour 1, LibDem 1
Predicted State of the Parties: Con 7, LibDem 1, Labour 1

Broadland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24338 (46.2%)
Labour: 7287 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 17046 (32.4%)
BNP: 871 (1.7%)
Green: 752 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2382 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 7292 (13.8%)

2015 result:
Conservative Keith Simpson 26,808 50.5 +4.3
Labour Chris Jones 5 9,970 18.8 +4.9
UKIP Stuart Agnew 5 8,881 16.7 +12.2
Liberal Democrat Steve Riley 5,178 9.8 −22.6
Green Andrew Boswell 2,252 4.2 +2.8
Majority 16,838 31.7 +17.9
Turnout 53,098 71.1 −0.9

Sitting MP: Keith Simpson (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

Great Yarmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18571 (43.1%)
Labour: 14295 (33.2%)
Lib Dem: 6188 (14.4%)
BNP: 1421 (3.3%)
Green: 416 (1%)
UKIP: 2066 (4.8%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4276 (9.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Brandon Lewis15 19,089 42.9 -0.2
Labour Lara Norris16 12,935 29.1 -4.1
UKIP Alan Grey17 10,270 23.1 +18.3
Liberal Democrat James Joyce 1,030 2.3 -12.1
Green Harry Webb18 978 2.2 +1.2
CISTA Samuel Townley 167 0.4 +0.4
Majority 6,154 13.8 +3.9
Turnout 44,469 63.7 +2.5

Sitting MP: Brandon Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

Should be another easy hold for Brandon Lewis. This seat was on UKIP’s target list last time but they failed to come anywhere near. Indeed, they didn’t even come second. It will be interesting to see where their votes go if they lose support. One slight fly in the ointment for Brandon Lewis is that he supported Remain in a very Leave constituency.

Mid Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25123 (49.5%)
Labour: 8857 (17.4%)
Lib Dem: 11267 (22.2%)
BNP: 1261 (2.5%)
Green: 1457 (2.9%)
UKIP: 2800 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 13856 (27.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Freeman6 27,206 52.1 +2.6
UKIP Anna Coke7 9,930 19.0 +13.5
Labour Harry Clarke 9,585 18.4 +0.4
Liberal Democrat Paul Speed8 3,300 6.3 −15.9
Green Simeon Jackson9 2,191 4.2 +1.3
Majority 17,276 33.1 +5.8
Turnout 52,212 67.8 −0.6

Sitting MP: George Freeman (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

North Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15928 (32.1%)
Labour: 2896 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 27554 (55.5%)
Green: 508 (1%)
UKIP: 2680 (5.4%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11626 (23.4%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Norman Lamb 19,299 39.1 -16.4
Conservative Ann Steward56 15,256 30.9 -1.2
UKIP Michael Baker7 8,328 16.9 +11.5
Labour Denise Burke8 5,043 10.2 +4.4
Green Mike Macartney-Filgate9 1,488 3.0 +2.0
Majority 4,043 8.2
Turnout 49,414 71.7 -1.5

Sitting MP: Norman Lamb (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

This was the scene of my electoral defenstration in 2005. Despite adverse boundary changes, which took Fakenham out of the seat, Lamb’s majority increased in 2010 to more than 11,000.. It was cut in 2015 to a very targetable 4000. The Tory vote has falld by a third since my election in 2005 and it’s clearly gone straight to UKIP. Their candidate last time was a well known local retailer. It’s a very eurosceptic constituency with even many Liberal Democrats voting Leave. If a Tory candidate had had 18 months to bed in, and could eat into the UKIP vote I’d say Norman Lamb was vulnerable, but he’s still incredibly popular and respected. His personal vote will carry him through.

Norwich North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17280 (40.6%)
Labour: 13379 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 7783 (18.3%)
BNP: 747 (1.8%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1878 (4.4%)
Christian: 118 (0.3%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3901 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chloe Smith 19,052 43.7 +3.1
Labour Jessica Asato 14,589 33.5 +2.0
UKIP Glenn Tingle 5,986 13.7 +9.3
Green Adrian Holmes 1,939 4.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat James Wright 1,894 4.3 -13.9
Independent Mick Hardy5 132 0.3 +0.3
Majority 4,463 10.2
Turnout 43,592 66.9 +1.7

Sitting MP: Chloe Smith
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is the seat where I cut my political teeth back in the mid 1980s. It hasn’t changed a lot since then, although there are quite a few new build housing estates. This is another seat which goes with the prevailing political wind. Labour should have regained it last time. They had an energetic candidate in Jess Asato, but in the end Chloe Smith held on easily, as she will this time, I suspect. She was a Remain supporter in a Remain constituency. The LibDems have never had any traction in Norwich North. Their vote totally collapsed last time, and although it can only go up this time, one suspects it won’t be by much.

Norwich South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10902 (22.9%)
Labour: 13650 (28.7%)
Lib Dem: 13960 (29.4%)
BNP: 697 (1.5%)
Green: 7095 (14.9%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.4%)
Others: 102 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 310 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Lewis 19,033 39.3 +10.6
Conservative Lisa Townsend 11,379 23.5 +0.6
Green Lesley Grahame 6,749 13.9 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 6,607 13.6 -15.7
UKIP Steve Emmens5 4,539 9.4 +7.0
Class War David Peel 96 0.2 N/A
Independent Cengiz Ceker 60 0.1 N/A
Majority 7,654 15.8
Turnout 48,463 64.7 +0.1

Sitting MP: Clive Lewis
Prediction: Labour hold

Labour won this from the LibDems in 2015 and the LibDems ended up a very poor fourth. Clive Lewis has been quite high profile and the UEA vote should see him win with little difficulty. The Greens always flatter to deceive here. It’s high on their target list but their vote actually went down in 2015.

North West Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25916 (54.2%)
Labour: 6353 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 11106 (23.2%)
BNP: 1839 (3.8%)
Green: 745 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1841 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 14810 (31%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Henry Bellingham12 24,727 52.2 -2.0
Labour Joanne Rust 10,779 22.8 +9.5
UKIP Richard Toby Coke12 8,412 17.8 +13.9
Green Michael de Whalley13 1,780 3.8 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Hugh Lanham14 1,673 3.5 -19.7
Majority 13,948 29.4 -1.6
Turnout 47,597 65.4 +0.1
Sitting MP: Sir Henry Bellingham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

South Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27133 (49.3%)
Labour: 7252 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16193 (29.4%)
BNP: 1086 (2%)
Green: 1000 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2329 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10940 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Bacon 30,995 54.3 +4.9
Labour Deborah Sacks6 10,502 18.4 +5.2
UKIP Barry Cameron7 7,847 13.7 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Jacky Howe8 4,689 8.2 -21.2
Green Catherine Rowett9 3,090 5.4 +3.6
Majority 20,493 35.9
Turnout 57,123 72.4

Sitting MP: Richard Bacon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

South West Norfolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23753 (48.3%)
Labour: 9119 (18.6%)
Lib Dem: 10613 (21.6%)
BNP: 1774 (3.6%)
Green: 830 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3061 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 13140 (26.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Elizabeth Truss8 25,515 50.9 +2.6
UKIP Paul Smyth9 11,654 23.3 +17.0
Labour Peter Smith8 8,649 17.3 −1.3
Liberal Democrat Rupert Moss-Eccardt10 2,217 4.4 −17.2
Green Sandra Walmsley11 2,075 4.1 +2.5
Majority 13,861 27.7 +1.0
Turnout 50,110 65.1 −1.1
Conservative hold Swing -7.2

Sitting MP: Liz Truss (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Of all the so-called safe Conservative seats in Norfolk, this one that is most volatile. It has seen a huge demographic change in the last 20 years. It almost went Labour in 1997 but Gillian Shephard just held on. UKIP have got a foothold here, but with a split opposition Liz Truss is not under threat.

To see the complete list of seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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Diary

ConHome Diary: Where Were You When Theresa May Called the Election?

21 Apr 2017 at 13:29

It was one of those moments when you’ll always remember where you were when you heard the news. I was sitting in my car outside Wembley Stadium… But I’m getting ahead of myself.
At just after 10am I was driving down the M11 from Norfolk when a news alert from Sky flashed up on my phone. “Prime Minister to make a statement live in Downing Street at 1115am.” Like everyone else, my brain started whirring as to what it could possibly be. I switched from radio station to radio station and none of the clever pundits and commentators seemed to have a clue. I rang a couple of MPs and nor did they. Could it be a death in the Royal family? No, that would be announced from Buckingham Palace. Could it be military action somewhere? No, it would need to be announced by the Americans at the same time and they were still asleep. In the end I narrowed it down to two possibilities, but even then I couldn’t really be very sure given that neither seemed very likely. I thought she would either announce she was standing down from being PM or that she was announcing an election. I couldn’t read Twitter while I was driving so didn’t see Adam Boulton notice that the government logo wasn’t on the lecturn, which was a giveaway that it wasn’t a government matter. Well, we all know what happened next. I picked my jaw up from resting on the steering wheel, cancelled my meeting at Wembley and headed straight to the LBC studios. It was going to be quite an afternoon…
*
The best thing about this announcement was that it genuinely took everyone by surprise. Can you remember the last time a big announcement like this didn’t leak in advance? There wasn’t even any speculation. Several commentators tried to suggest that they had predicted this all along, but none of them were very convincing. John Rentoul seems to have the biggest claim to have seen it all in his crystal ball. I’m sure there have been occasions when the government has managed not to leak but I can only think of one, when back in April 1989 the Thatcher government made the announcement that they were to repeal the National Dock Labour Scheme. I was involved in that, and so, coincidentally was David Davis. He, my boss as the British Ports Federation and myself were the only three people outside government who knew about it. It was the best kept secret, well, since the last one.
We had decided to hold a one day conference for the employers on the subject and scheduled it for April 6 1989. A few days before the conference one of the civil servants phoned and told us to prepare for an announcement that the Scheme was about to be repealed. “When’s the announcement,” we asked tentatively. “I haven’t told you this, but it will be on 6 April,” he said. Oh. My. God. The day of our “Preparing for a Strike” conference. We knew no one would believe this to be complete coincidence, but that is exactly what it was. We debated whether to call it off, but decided the downsides of that were worse than people thinking we were in collusion with the government.
Mobile phones had only just been invented, and I remember spending half that day with a massive Vodafone handset glued to my ear. The employers themselves hadn’t got a clue what was about to hit them. And nor, more importantly, had the Transport & General Workers’ Union. Finally, at 3.30, Norman Fowler, the Employment Secretary stood up in the Commons and made the announcement. “Thunderbirds are go,” said my informant, the MP for Boothferry, David Davis. We then made the announcement to the employers who received the news in stunned silence. They thought it was a joke, or prelude to some sort of role play exercise. But it wasn’t. It was for real. The T&G union under Ron Todd was caught totally on the hop. They never really thought this day would come. They thought Margaret Thatcher wouldn’t dare do it. Like many others, they underestimated her. Just as we have all seemingly underestimated Theresa May…
*

There were signs of course, but we all missed them. I was told in March that Lynton Crosby had been seen coming in and out of Downing Street in recent weeks. I assumed it was all about devising a strategy to respond to the CPS decision on election expenses at the last election. How wrong can you be…
*
The decision of the prime minister not to take part in leaders debates is disappointing to say the least. I totally understand the logic of Lynton Crosby’s advice, but sometimes politicians have to see the wider picture. Of course, there is nothing for Theresa May to gain from doing debates, but I take the rather old fashioned view that debating your opponents about the future of the country is what election campaigns should be all about. You do it as a candidate at a local level, and so should party leaders at a national level. We live in an age when voters expect nothing less than to see their potential prime ministers debating each other. To fall back on the ridiculous defence that it is what she does every week at PMQs is frankly to insult the intelligence of the electorate. The last PMQs before the election will be next Wednesday, 30th April. That leaves six whole weeks where the PM and the Leader of the Opposition won’t lock horns. Of course the PM will do one to one sit down interviews, but in my humble opinion, that’s not quite going to cut it. I suppose no one will change their vote as a result of the decision not to take part in leaders’ debates, but I still think it’s the wrong call.
*

The latest YouGov poll shows the Tories on 48%, a lead of 24% over Labour. Landslide territory. However, Jeremy Corbyn isn’t having any of it and still genuinely thinks he will win. It would be a massive turnaround, it has to be said. My instant prediction is a Tory majority of 74. I’m going to repeat my seat by seat predictions, which I did at the last election. I did wonder whether to repeat the exercise given that my predictions were only marginally better than the pollsters, but hey, it’s a bit of fun. I do think that the performance of the Liberal Democrats is going to be key to these predictions and I firmly believe that this election offers Tim Farron a massive opportunity, given the state of the Labour Party. I had thought it would be UKIP which would be the recipient of a lot of ex Labour votes, especially in the North. That may still be the case, but it seems to me that Tim Farron has very skilfully made the LibDems the party of the 48%. Anecdotally virtually everyone I know on the left is going to vote LibDem. A straw in the wind maybe, and it may not ripple much outside London. But don’t bet against a very strong LibDem revivial…
*
I’m going to be on the radio six days a week during the election campaign. From this Saturday I’ll be hosting a weekly Saturday morning show on LBC from 10am-noon, in addition to my weekday Drivetime show. If I’m honest, this is the first time for many years where I’ve thought I’d like to be a candidate again. Who wouldn’t want to be in Parliament over the next five years? But it was a fleeting thought and I dismissed it almost as soon as I had had it. At the age of 54 my time in politics has been and gone, and why would I give up the best job I have ever had? I’m going to aim to give the best coverage of the election you will hear on UK radio, so I do hope you will tune in from time to time.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 1. Essex

20 Apr 2017 at 22:50

Essex

Seats: 18
Current Political Makeup: Con 17, Independent 1
*Prediction: Con 18

1. Basildon & Billericay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (52.7%)
Labour: 9584 (23.1%)
Lib Dem: 6538 (15.7%)
BNP: 1934 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 12338 (29.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Baron 22,668 52.7 −0.1
Labour Gavin Callaghan 10,186 23.7 +0.6
UKIP George Konstantinidis 8,538 19.8 +16.0
Liberal Democrat Martin Thompson 1,636 3.8 −11.9
Majority 12,482 29.0 −0.8
Turnout 43,028 62.9 −0.7
Conservative hold Swing −0.4

Sitting MP: John Baron (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

2. Braintree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25901 (52.6%)
Labour: 9780 (19.9%)
Lib Dem: 9247 (18.8%)
BNP: 1080 (2.2%)
Green: 718 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2477 (5%)
MAJORITY: 16121 (32.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Cleverly 27,071 53.8 +1.2
UKIP Richard Bingley 9,461 18.8 +13.8
Labour Malcolm Fincken 9,296 18.5 -1.4
Liberal Democrat Matthew Klesel 2,488 4.9 -13.8
Green Paul Jeater 1,564 3.1 +1.7
Independent Toby Pereira 295 0.6 N/A
BNP Paul Hooks 108 0.2 -2.0
Majority 17,610 35.0 +2.2
Turnout 50,283 68.4 -0.7

Sitting MP: James Cleverly (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

3. Brentwood & Ongar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28793 (56.9%)
Labour: 4992 (9.9%)
Lib Dem: 11872 (23.5%)
BNP: 1447 (2.9%)
Green: 584 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2037 (4%)
English Dem: 491 (1%)
Independent: 263 (0.5%)
Others: 113 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16921 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Eric Pickles 30,534 58.8 +1.9
UKIP Mick McGough 8,724 16.8 +12.8
Labour Liam Preston 6,492 12.5 +2.6
Liberal Democrat David Kendall 4,577 8.8 −14.6
Green Reza Hossain6 1,397 2.7 +1.5
English Democrat Robin Tilbrook 173 0.3 −0.7
Majority 21,810 42.0 +8.6
Turnout 51,897 71.6 −0.3
Conservative hold Swing −5.4

Sitting MP: Eric Pickles (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

4. Castle Point

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19806 (44%)
Labour: 6609 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 4232 (9.4%)
BNP: 2205 (4.9%)
Others: 12174 (27%)
MAJORITY: 7632 (17%)*

Conservative Rebecca Harris 23,112 50.9 +6.9
UKIP Jamie Huntman 10 14,178 31.2 +31.2
Labour Joe Cooke 11 6,283 13.8 −0.9
Green Dom Ellis12 1,076 2.4 +2.4
Liberal Democrat Sereena Davey 13 801 1.8 −7.6
Majority 8,934 19.7 +2.7
Turnout 45,450 66.7 −0.2

Sitting MP: Rebecca Harris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I wavered on this one last time and in the end predicted a narrow UKIP win. How wrong could I be?! I won’t be making that mistake this time. Rebecca Harris should increase her majority.

5. Chelmsford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25207 (46.2%)
Labour: 5980 (11%)
Lib Dem: 20097 (36.8%)
BNP: 899 (1.6%)
Green: 476 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1527 (2.8%)
English Dem: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 153 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5110 (9.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Burns 27,732 51.5 +5.4
Labour Chris Vince 7 9,482 17.6 +6.7
UKIP Mark Gough8 7,652 14.2 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Stephen Robinson 6,394 11.9 −24.9
Green Angela Thomson 1,892 3.5 +2.6
Liberal Henry Boyle 665 1.2 +1.2
Majority 18,250 35.9
Turnout 53,817 68.5

Sitting MP: Simon Burns (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative Hold

Chelmsford has been a LibDem target all through my adult life. Yet they’ve never quite managed to unseat either Norman St John Stevas or Simon Burns. Just when they looked as if they might, they were thwarted by boundary changes. Simon Burns trebled his majority in 2010 and although he is standing down, it would take a political earthquake for this seat to go LibDem.

6. Clacton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22867 (53%)
Labour: 10799 (25%)
Lib Dem: 5577 (12.9%)
BNP: 1975 (4.6%)
Green: 535 (1.2%)
Independent: 292 (0.7%)
Others: 1078 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 12068 (28%)

By-Election Result (Oct 2014)
UKIP: 21113 (59.7%)
Conservative: 8709 (24.6%)
Labour: 3957 (11.2%)
Green: 688 (1.9%
Lib Dem: 483 (1.2%)
Others: 388 (1.2%)
BNP: 1975 (4.6%)
Green: 535 (1.2%)
Independent: 292 (0.7%)
Others: 1078 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 12068 (28%)

2015 Result:
UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 44.4 N/A
Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 36.7 -16.3
Labour Tim Young 6,364 14.4 -10.6
Green Chris Southall11 1,184 2.7 +1.5
Liberal Democrat David Grace12 812 1.8 -11.1
Majority 3,437 7.8 N/A
Turnout 44,207 64.1 -0.1

Sitting MP: Douglas Carswell (Independent)
Prediction: Conservative gain

With Douglas Carswell standing down and Nigel Farage ruling himself out, this seat will now inevitably return to the Tories. Arron Banks may well stand but he should save his money.

7. Colchester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15169 (32.9%)
Labour: 5680 (12.3%)
Lib Dem: 22151 (48%)
BNP: 705 (1.5%)
Green: 694 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1350 (2.9%)
English Dem: 335 (0.7%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 6982 (15.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Will Quince 8 18,919 38.9 +6.1
Liberal Democrat Bob Russell 8 13,344 27.5 −20.5
Labour Jordan Newell 8 7,852 16.2 +3.8
UKIP John Pitts9 5,870 12.1 +9.2
Green Mark Goacher 10 2,499 5.1 +3.6
Christian Peoples Ken Scrimshaw11 109 0.2 +0.2
Majority 5,575 11.5
Turnout 48,593 65.5 +3.2
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat Swing 7.2

Sitting MP: Will Quince (Con)
Prediction: Probable Conservative hold

Bob Russell had held this seat for the LibDems for 18 years until he was surprisingly usurped by Will Quince in 2015. Given that the seat voted 53-47 to leave the EU the LibDems may not be hopeful of winning this seat back. Quince has proved to be an assiduous constituency campaigner, a worthy successor to Sir Bob. But if the LibDems are to make a meaningful breakthrough it is in seats like this that they need to make gains. The only way they will do that is if they can squeeze back the Labour vote..

8. Epping Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25148 (54%)
Labour: 6641 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 10017 (21.5%)
BNP: 1982 (4.3%)
Green: 659 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1852 (4%)
English Dem: 285 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 15131 (32.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Eleanor Laing5 27,027 54.8 +0.8
UKIP Andrew Smith5 9,049 18.3 +14.4
Labour Gareth Barrett 7,962 16.1 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Jon Whitehouse6 3,448 7.0 −14.5
Green Anna Widdup 1,782 3.6 +2.2
YPP Mark Wadsworth 80 0.2 +0.2
Majority 17,978 36.4 +3.9
Turnout 49,348 67.1 +2.6

Sitting MP: Eleanor Laing (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Harlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (44.9%)
Labour: 14766 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 5990 (13.7%)
BNP: 1739 (4%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4925 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Halfon 21,623 48.9 +4.0
Labour Suzy Stride 13,273 30.0 −3.7
UKIP Sam Stopplecamp 7,208 16.3 +12.7
Green Murray Sackwild 954 2.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Geoffrey Seeff 904 2.0 −11.6
TUSC David Brown 174 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Eddy Butler 115 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,350 18.9 +7.7
Turnout 44,251 65.1 ±0.0

Sitting MP: Robert Halfon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A massive result for Rob Halfon last time, and it’s likely he will increase his majority again in June.

10. Harwich & North Essex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23001 (46.9%)
Labour: 9774 (19.9%)
Lib Dem: 11554 (23.6%)
BNP: 1065 (2.2%)
Green: 909 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2527 (5.2%)
Independent: 170 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 11447 (23.4%)

Conservative Bernard Jenkin 24,722 51.0 +4.1
Labour Edward Browne5 9,548 19.7 -0.2
UKIP Mark Hughes5 8,464 17.5 +12.3
Liberal Democrat Dominic Graham5 3,576 7.4 -16.2
Green Christopher Flossman 2,122 4.4 +2.5
Majority 15,174 31.3 +7.9
Turnout 48,432 69.9 +0.6

Sitting MP: Bernard Jenkin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Maldon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28661 (59.8%)
Labour: 6070 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 9254 (19.3%)
BNP: 1464 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2446 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 19407 (40.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Whittingdale 29,112 60.6 +0.8
UKIP Beverley Acevedo15 7,042 14.7 +9.6
Labour Peter Edwards16 5,690 11.8 −0.8
Independent Ken Martin 2,424 5.0 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Zoe O’Connell17 2,157 4.5 −14.8
Green Bob Graves18 1,504 3.1 +3.1
Sustainable Population John Marett 116 0.2 +0.2
Majority 22,070 45.9 +5.4
Turnout 48,045 69.2 −0.4

Sitting MP: John Whittingdale (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

12. Rayleigh & Wickford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30257 (57.8%)
Labour: 7577 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 7919 (15.1%)
BNP: 2160 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2211 (4.2%)
English Dem: 2219 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 22338 (42.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Francois 29,088 54.7 −3.1
UKIP John Hayter8 11,858 22.3 +18.1
Labour David Hough 6,705 12.6 −1.9
Independent Linda Kendall9 2,418 4.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mike Pitt10 1,622 3.0 −12.1
Green Sarah Yapp11 1,529 2.9 N/A
Majority 17,230 32.4
Turnout 53,220 68.3 +2.4

Sitting MP: Mark Francois (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

13. Rochford & Southend East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19509 (46.9%)
Labour: 8459 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8084 (19.4%)
BNP: 1856 (4.5%)
Green: 707 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2405 (5.8%)
Independent: 611 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 11050 (26.5%)

Conservative James Duddridge 20,241 46.4 -0.4
Labour Ian Gilbert 10,765 24.7 +4.4
UKIP Floyd Waterworth8 8,948 20.5 +14.7
Green Simon Cross9 2,195 5.0 +3.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Gwizdala 1,459 3.3 -16.1
Majority 9,476 21.7
Turnout 43,608 60.6

Sitting MP: James Duddridge (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

14. Saffron Walden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30155 (55.5%)
Labour: 5288 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 14913 (27.4%)
BNP: 1050 (1.9%)
Green: 735 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2228 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15242 (28%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alan Haselhurst 32,926 57.2 +1.7
UKIP Peter Day8 7,935 13.8 +9.7
Labour Jane Berney 6,791 11.8 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Mike Hibbs 6,079 10.6 −16.9
Green Karmel Stannard 2,174 3.8 +2.4
Residents for Uttlesford Heather Asker 1,658 2.9 N/A
Majority 24,991 43.4 +15.4
Turnout 57,563 71.4 -0.2

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Haselhurst (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

15. South Basildon & East Thurrock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19624 (43.9%)
Labour: 13852 (31%)
Lib Dem: 5977 (13.4%)
BNP: 2518 (5.6%)
UKIP: 2639 (5.9%)
Others: 125 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5772 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Metcalfe 19,788 43.4 -0.5
UKIP Ian Luder 7 12,097 26.5 +20.6
Labour Mike Le-Surf 8 11,493 25.2 -5.8
Liberal Democrat Geoff Williams9 1,356 3.0 -10.4
Independent Kerry Smith10 401 0.9 N/A
Independent None Of The Above X 253 0.6 +0.3
Independent Stuart Hooper11 205 0.4 N/A
Majority 7,692 16.9
Turnout 45,593 64.1
Sitting MP: Stephen Metcalfe (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Southend West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20086 (46.1%)
Labour: 5850 (13.4%)
Lib Dem: 12816 (29.4%)
BNP: 1333 (3.1%)
Green: 644 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1714 (3.9%)
English Dem: 546 (1.3%)
Independent: 617 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 7270 (16.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Amess 22,175 49.8 +3.8
Labour Julian Ware-Lane 8,154 18.3 +4.9
UKIP Brian Otridge6 7,803 17.5 +13.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Collins7 4,129 9.3 -20.1
Green Jon Fuller8 2,083 4.7 +3.2
English Democrat Jeremy Moss 165 0.4 -0.9
Majority 14,021 31.5 +14.8
Turnout 44,509 66.6 +1.5

Sitting MP: David Amess (Con)
Prediction: Conservative majority

17. Thurrock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16869 (36.8%)
Labour: 16777 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 4901 (10.7%)
BNP: 3618 (7.9%)
UKIP: 3390 (7.4%)
Christian: 266 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,692 33.7 −3.1
Labour Polly Billington10 16,156 32.6 −4.0
UKIP Tim Aker11 15,718 31.7 +24.3
Liberal Democrat Rhodri Jamieson-Ball 644 1.3 −9.4
CISTA Jamie Barnes 244 0.5 N/A
Independent Daniel Munyambu 79 0.2 N/A
All People’s Party Aba Kristilolu 31 0.1 N/A
Majority 536 1.1
Turnout 49,564 63.9

Sitting MP: Jackie Doyle-Price (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I predicted this seat would go UKIP and it very nearly did in 2015. If Nigel Farage had stood here in this election I genuinely think he could have won. But it’s now likely that Jackie Doyle-Price will increase her majority.

18. Witham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24448 (52.2%)
Labour: 8656 (18.5%)
Lib Dem: 9252 (19.8%)
Green: 1419 (3%)
UKIP: 3060 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 15196 (32.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Priti Patel 27,123 57.5 +5.3
UKIP Garry Cockrill4 7,569 16.0 +9.5
Labour John Clarke 7,467 15.8 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Josephine Hayes5 2,891 6.1 −13.6
Green James Abbott6 2,038 4.3 +1.3
Christian Peoples Doreen Scrimshaw7 80 0.2 N/A
Majority 19,554 41.5 +9.1
Turnout 47,168 70.3 +0.1

Sitting MP: Priti Patel (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold

To see the complete list of seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: Predictions So Far...

19 Apr 2017 at 22:08

Click on the links below to see my seat by seat predictions for each area of the United Kingdom. This list will be updated daily, so do check back.

319 seats predicted so far…

RUNNING TOTAL

Con 196
Lab 71
Lib 12
SNP 15
Plaid 5
Green 2
DUP 8
Sinn Fein 5
SDLP 3
UUP 1
Independent 1

Bedfordshire
Birmingham
Bristol & Surrounds
Cambridgeshire
Cheshire
Cornwall
County Durham
Dorset
East Sussex
Essex
Gloucestershire
Hampshire
Lancashire
London Central
London East
London South
London South West
Merseyside
Norfolk
Northern Ireland
Northumberland
Scotland: Borders & Ayrshire
Scotland: Glasgow
Shropshire
Somerset
Suffolk
Teesside
Wales – Dyfed
Wales – Gwynned & Powys
Wales – South Glamorgan
Wales – West Glamorgan
West Midlands
West Sussex
Yorkshire: West

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UK Politics

A Few Election Thoughts...

19 Apr 2017 at 09:30

1. For the first time in seven years part of me wishes I was a candidate in this election. Exciting political times ahead. But I can’t/won’t be.
2. Watch out for an exciting announcement later today about something I’ll be doing for the next 8 weeks.
3. Virtually everyone I know who has always voted Labour says they’ll be voting LibDem.
4. Forget any thought of the election campaign starting in early May. It started today.
5. Watch out for the first ‘Jeremy Corbyn has had a day off’ story in the Daily Mail. Around May 14th, I’d say.
6. If Huw Edwards is assassinated anytime between now and June 8th, David Dimbleby will have made sure he has an alibi.
7. Will any broadcaster be brave enough to empty chair Theresa May if she fails to turn up to a leaders debate?
8. The LibDems have a massive opportunity in this election, but will Tim Farron blow it?
9. UKIP will do well to be seen as anything other than an irrelevance, which shows just how far they’ve fallen since 2015. How can they justify standing against MPs who voted for Brexit?
10. The most probably way for Theresa May to be defeated is if there is some sort of anti Tory alliance in 100 Tory marginals. It’ll never happen.
11. Can John Woodcock survive as a Labour candidate following his video today where he says he would never vote to put Jeremy Corbyn in Number Ten? I’d say the odds are against. I suspect it doesn’t matter as his seat will go Tory, just like it did in the landslide of 1983.
12. I’m mulling over whether to do my seat by seat prediction, like I did in 2010. Not sure….
13. Guess who had a holiday in Spain booked for 4-9 June. Immediately cancelled.

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