Conservative Politics

Conservative Leadership Runners & Riders: BORIS JOHNSON

27 Jun 2016 at 22:15

FULL NAME: Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson
BORN: June 19, 1964, New York
AGE: 52
EDUCATION: Eton, Balliol College Oxford
STATUS: Married, 6 children
FIRST ELECTED: 2001
CONSTITUENCY: Uxbridge – Majority 10,695
EXPERIENCE: Shadow Arts Minister May-November 2004, Shadow Universities Minister December 2005-July 2007, Mayor of London 2008-16
OTHER EXPERIENCE: Journalist, The Times & Daily Telegraph 1987-1999, Editor, The Spectator 1999-2006
MOST LIKELY TO SAY: “Cripes, I didn’t mean it.”
LEAST LIKELY TO SAY: “Let me give you a detailed analysis of the difference between microfiscal economic policy and macrofiscal strategy.”
FAMOUS QUOTES: “My chances of being PM are about as good as the chances of finding Elvis on Mars, or my being reincarnated as an olive.” “The dreadful truth is that when people come to see their MP they have run out of better ideas.” “My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters.”
STRENGTHS: Huge star quality, charisma, ability to shrug off potential gaffes and scandals, intellect, public speaking
WEAKNESSES: Stormy private life, priapic tendencies, lack of attention to detail, economic expertise, strategic ignorance, not a team player, yet another Old Etonion from Oxford
MAIN ADVISERS: Will Walden
MAIN ALLIES: Jesse Norman, Ben Wallace, Nadhim Zahawi, Nadine Dorries
LIKELY TO STAND: 100%
LADBROKES ODDS: Evens

SCOREBOARD
(scored a panel of 50 Conservative activists, politicians and commentators)

Experience: 7.6
Negotiating Skills: 6.4
Star Quality: 9.1
Likeability: 7.9
Ability to take the fight to Labour: 8.6
Economic Competence: 6.4
Intellectual Capacity: 8.2
Ability to Unite the Country: 7.3
Ability to Unite the Party: 5.9
Integrity: 6.1
Courage: 7.5
Leadership: 6.9
National Appeal: 8.0
International Experience: 6.4

Against all the other potential candidates Boris Johnson top-scored in Star Quality, Likeability, Ability to take the Fight to Labour, Ability to Unite the Country as well as National Appeal. He was joint highest on Intellectual Ability, alongside Michael Gove.

OVERALL RATING OUT OF 100: 73

MY ANALYSIS

Boris suffers from being the front runner. The last time a front runner won the leadership of the Conservative Party was when Ted Heath won in 1965. I have particular cause to remember 2005 when David Davis held that position and then crashed and burned. The longer the timetable, the more likely it is that the same could happen to Boris. Even now there is an “Anyone But Boris” campaign.

Boris’s main weakness is his perceived lack of conviction and the way he flipflopped over the whole issue of EU membership. His apparent expediency may be forgiven by the voluntary party but the parliamentary party may be less forgiving. His main challenge will be to win enough support from his parliamentary colleagues to get on the ballot paper which goes out to the 150,000 Conservative Party members. His older colleagues remember his antics from the 2001 Parliament when he was considered the very antithesis of a team player, and frankly a bit of a joke. Because he has only recently returned to Parliament and therefore isn’t very familiar with the 2010 or 2015 intakes. As Mayor of London he by and large ignored MPs and held very few ‘get to know you’ cocktail parties. These have started in recent months but to more than three quarters of the Parliamentary Party, Boris is ‘that celebrity off the TV’ rather than a colleague.

Having said all that, the man has star quality. You just have to walk to down a street with him to experience it. And his appeal does actually stretch north of Watford. If Tory MPs want to elect someone who is a proven election winner they can do no better than elect Boris Johnson. But that’s not the issue now. Many of them believe that they should be electing a tough negotiator who has a wide range of economic expertise and can think radically. Maybe that candidate is not on offer anyhow, but it’s in those areas that Boris Johnson needs to convince his fellow MPs.

Boris could be a great Prime Minister. Or he could be a disaster. There are no shades of grey with Boris. He would be a very great risk, for a Tory Party which needs unity and direction. But it would be a wonderful period for people like me to cover!

Coming next: Theresa May

Share:

6 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain & Jeremy Nicholas Discuss Their West Ham Books

YourThurrckFilms

Listen now

Conservative Politics

EXCLUSIVE: Boris Aims To Sign Up 150 MPs to Blow Rivals Out of the Water

26 Jun 2016 at 11:49

I was watching Isabel Oakeshott declare on the Sunday Politics that the only leadership team not doing much this weekend was Boris Johnson’s. Oh how I laughed.

The fact of the matter is that Boris’s team have not only been very active, they are trying to sign up as many MPs to their cause as possible in order to put off rivals from even bothering to stand. It’s almost as if they are copying the hymn sheet of the David Davis campaign. Jesse Norman, Nadhim Zahawi and Ben Wallace are trawling all Tory MPs today and asking them if they will support the former mayor. I have no idea how successful they have been in their endeavours, but it has to be said that there are a fair number of Tory MPs who will vote for ABB – Anyone But Boris.

By my reckoning there are 20 Tory MPs who are considering launching a bid. It had been 19 until I heard of the – and I am going to be kind here – rather hopeful ambitions of George Freeman, the minister for life sciences. In the end, I am pretty sure it will boil down to a Boris v Theresa May fight, but as we all know in Tory leadership contests, the front runners rarely triumph. I think Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom have a good chance of breaking through, and if Michael Gove decides to stand he will also garner a fair few votes. My instinct is that Nicky Morgan will be the ‘continuity Cameron’ candidate, while George Osborne may well decide to throw his weight (and supporters) behind Boris or Theresa May depending on which one offers him something meaningful. His PPS spent yesterday sounding people out as to whether the Chancellor should run. I don’t know what he was told, but if MPs were being honest with him, many would have said not to bother. I understand that at least one senior minister, a surefire Osborne supporter, told Osborne’s PPS that he would now be backing Boris. It’s a fickle game, politics, and timing is everything. I fear this is not George Osborne’s time.

Over the next ten days I will be profiling all the potential leadership candidates and analysing their chances of success. Do check back in soon!

Share:

10 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_dwayn

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale interviews Polar Explorer Dwayne Fields

Dwayne Fields is embarking on a trip to the South Pole. He tells Iain Dale why.

Listen now

Video

WATCH: LBC's Seven Hour Long Referendum Night Show

25 Jun 2016 at 18:35

This is the video of LBC’s seven hour long Referendum Night show. For the first time we filmed and live-streamed the whole thing on our website via Youtube, and also Facebook Live. There are some quite amusing moments when some of us forgot we were on camera. The programme featured myself and Shelagh Fogarty as hosts and our rolling cast of panellists included Alex Salmond, David Davis, Liam Halligan, Brenda Kelly, Lord Robert Hayward, Alex Donoghue (Ladbrokes), Cordelia Hay (Britain Thinks), Chuka Umunna, Suzanne Evans, Paddy Ashdown and our correspondents around the country.

Thanks to our intrepid producers Matt Harris, Rachel Humphrys, Jagruti Dave, Axel Kacoutie and Chris Humphris.

We’ve had some wonderful comments on the show. Indeed, it’s a very rare occasion that you are part of a show that gets no negative comment on Twitter or Facebook whatsoever. We didn’t get everything right, but we took a light approach, didn’t bamboozle people with statistics. We tried to inform and entertain. For me that’s what a public service broadcaster is supposed to do. And I think we showed that politics and nights like this can be entertaining and dramatic.

Even if you can’t watch the whole 7 hours (and very few people will! I do recognise that) have a dip into it and see what you think. And if you like what you see, Shelagh Fogarty is on LBC 1-4 weekday afternoons and I’m on between 4 and 7pm.

PS The first two minutes, leading up to 10pm were prerecorded, so there are no pictures.

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lbclogo

Iain Talks to Mango Groove's Claire Johnston About Nelson Mandela

Part of a Nelson Mandela special programme

Listen now

Diary

ConHome Diary: Initial Thoughts on The Most Momentous Day in My Adult Political Life

24 Jun 2016 at 09:04

I sit here in my Leicester Square hotel room. It’s 6.34 in the morning on Friday and a new dawn has broken, has it not? I’ve just had the privilege of presenting LBC’s seven hour referendum results show. I ought to be dead on my feet but I’m not remotely tired. I feel a profound sense of excitement and anticipation. This is the most momentous domestic political event of my adult life. It is more significant than Margaret Thatcher’s election victory in 1979, or her defenestration in November 1990. It’s bigger than Black Wednesday. Or 7/7. The ramifications from today’s vote, both positive and negative, will be felt for generations to come.

I decided to vote Leave a long time ago. Having been a strong advocate of the European Community (as it then was) in the 1980s I even remember attending European Movement meetings in Norwich. I grew more and more disillusioned as I realised that the EU (as it then became) was grabbing ever more power for itself. When the euro was born, I finally realised that the endgame really was a United States of Europe. That was why I always told selection committees that if I ever voted for Britain to join the euro they should deselect me.
They saved themselves the trouble by not selecting me in the first place.

Up until today I have not for one moment regretted deciding to come off the Conservative Candidates list in 2010. But today I have a slight pang of what might have been. Being an MP over the next few years will be fascinating for those were lucky enough to be elected to the House of Commons. They will be at the centre of Britain reasserting itself as a fully independent nation.

A good friend of mine only decided how to vote when he entered the polling booth. After weeks of indecision, he voted Remain. He skyped me at around 3am saying: “I think I must have made the wrong decision, cos I keep cheering when leave gets in the lead and getting anxious when remain goes higher.” I didn’t feel that way. I did wonder how I would feel if it looked like a Brexit, but my reactions when the result became clearer merely confirmed that I was glad that I had voted how I did.

It’s been very frustrating that because of the ludicrous OfCom broadcasting regulations I haven’t been able to declare my hand until after voting had closed. Those who follow me on Twitter won’t have been under any illusion about how I had voted, even though I couldn’t say so in so many words. It’s ludicrous that on polling day that The Sun can tell its readers how to vote, yet I as a broadcaster aren’t even allowed to mention the referendum, let alone tell anyone how I had voted. It’s a mad system.

Sure there are going to be some bumps in the road. Sure it’s going to create havoc in the Conservative Party. But these are mere short term considerations. In the medium to long term I am absolutely convinced Britain has made absolutely the right decision.

In the end, the people have spoken. And it is down to the elected government to listen to the people. It is also up to the 75% of REMAIN supporting MPs to learn that the people have spoken. Any attempt to have a re-referendum or water down the ‘out’ to a ‘out but with a foot left in the door’ just will not do.

Those MPs who don’t have the stomach to make this work should depart the pitch now and let others take the country forward into this new era. Those who think they know better than the people who elect them need to face a reality check. When I saw Keith Vaz on TV basically saying that the people know not what they have done, and then when interviewing Vince Cable hearing him essentially calling the people ‘stupid’, I knew that we were about to say goodbye to a failing set of politicians who have let the people down.

The British people have voted for Brexit for a number of reasons. Europe has been its own worst enemy. The European Commission has been its own worst enemy. Supercilious Remain supporting politicians (and I don’t include them all) who keep banging on about being able to reform the EU from the inside never really believed it. And that’s another of the reasons why I supported LEAVE. The whole institution is unreformable. It’s dictatorial as the Greeks will tell anyone who cares to listen. It’s fundamentally undemocratic and I have the quaint view that we in Britain are better at deciding what’s good for us than unelected EU civil servants.

It’s now 7.43. I keep being interrupted by phone calls. The Prime Minister is expected to address the nation shortly, but it’s time to file this piece. There will be a lot of speculation about the Prime Minister’s future or lack of it. The same can be said for the Chancellor. The same Chancellor who told me on Monday that there were no Treasury plans for Brexit. In that one sentence he displayed such arrogance and a gross dereliction of duty. In some ways I hope he was lying to me. What a sad state of affairs.

The PM and Chancellor may stay in office. After all, Major and Lamont did following the Black Wednesday humiliation in 1992. But it can surely only be temporary. Whether Conservatives admit it or not, they know the Cameron era is all but over. They are looking for the next leader but there’s little agreement on who it should, or could be. I have two, possibly three, leading contenders.

But that’s for another day. I think.

PS: 9.02 – The PM has resigned. I missed it. I was asleep. Someone on Twitter reminds me of this tweet from 20 February…


Share:

1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_alogo

The Best Bits of the Iain Dale Show from 2012

Fasten your seatbelts

Listen now

Radio

Britain Decides: Join Shelagh Fogarty & Me From 10 on LBC For Our Seven Hour Results Marathon

23 Jun 2016 at 11:36

What an important day today is. Will it be Independence Day or no change? I’ll be on air from 4 as usual, but due to ridiculous OfCom rules we can’t even mention the referendum without risking a fine. But the main event starts at 10pm when Shelagh Fogarty and I will be hosting LBC’s seven hour results programme. It promises to be a marathon. I hope you’ll join us for at least part of it. Nick Ferrari will take over at 5am. And then I will be back at 4pm on Friday. I suspect by 7pm on Friday I will be a tad knackered.

We have some cracking guests with us in the studio including Alex Salmond, David Davis, Chuka Umunna, Theresa Villiers, Suzanne Evans, Michael Cockerell, Paddy Ashdown, Brenda Kelly, Liam Halligan, Rob Hayward, Deborah Mattinson and many more. Ian Collins will be at the Manchester Count, Darren Adams will be in Scotland and we have reporters at all the regional counts. We’ll also get reaction from around the world to what’s happening as Britain makes its momentous decision.

If you’ve never listened to LBC or our election coverage before, I think you’ll enjoy it. It’s very different to the BBC. There are all sorts of ways you can listen…

In London on 97.3 FM
Throughout the UK on digital radio (DAB 1)
Sky Channel 0124
Virgin Media Channel 919
Freeview Channel 732
Freesat Channel 734
Via the LBC App for iPhone & Android
On our website lbc.co.uk

We will also be streaming the entire 7 hours in vision in HD on our website and also on Facebook Live, where you can comment on what we are doing as we go along.

Do join us.

Share:

1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_alogo

Iain interviews Fern Britton

Fern Britton talks about mental illness and excessive homework

Listen now

Diary

Attitude Column: Why I Love America

23 Jun 2016 at 09:36

I first went to the United States in the summer of 1987 and it’s been a love affair ever since. I feel in love with the country’s vastness, its variety and its people. I admire what it stands for, I admire its history and, yes, I admire its culture.

Because, you see, America may be a relatively young country but it does have a history and it does have an astonishing cultural heritage. Ignore the lazy thinking that portrays America is a cartoon country devoid of cultural seriousness. It is the country of Ernest Hemingway, Harper Lee, Tenessee Williams, F Scott Fitzgerald, John Steinbeck, Mark Twain and Edgar Allan Poe. I could go on.

Its hundreds of TV channels give the impression of a country happiest with the lowest common denominator, but imagine a TV world without such classics as Breaking Bad, 24, X-Files, Madmen, The Simpsons. West Wing, Twin Peaks, the Golden Girls – well, where do I stop. OK, At Dallas.

It’s a country which embraces immigrants from all over the world. It’s a country which truly believes in aspiration, in something called The American Dream, where you really do have an opportunity to rise to the top. Of course there are still massive social divisions, but there’s no class structure, the type of which still bedevils this country. You really can be a black boy from a poor ground and grow up to be President.

American attitudes to business and enterprise demonstrate why it remains the world’s most powerful and successful economy. In this country we look down on people who have a business failure in their history. In America, most successful business people have failed at least twice. There’s no envy of people who do well. Reveal that you’re a multi-millionaire and people think “hasn’t he done well, I want to do better.” In this country we revile people like that and look at their riches with pure, unadulterated envy.

America’s constitution, drafted more than two hundred years ago, has stood the test of time. The forefathers of today’s legal and political professions bequeathed a system which protects freedoms and rights like no other in the world.

Throughout my adult life, younger generations in Europe have been hugely critical of American foreign policy, judging it to be too interventionist and war-like. This is to misunderstand US motivations. There is little understanding that without American interventions in both the First and Second World Wars, we’d now be speaking in German in this country. We might like to think that “we” won both these wars, but “we” wouldn’t have had it not been for the sacrifice of hundreds of thousands of brave young American soldiers, sailors and airmen. Had it not been for the United States role in standing up to the Soviet Union in the cold war, the only way it would have ended would have been for communism to triumph in western Europe.

Nowadays we judge American through the prism of its interventions in Afghanistan and more especially Iraq. Too many people have come to believe that the world would be a better place if America withdrew into its own borders and took up its more traditional isolationist stance. It’s a huge misjudgement. Without America, there will never be a successful middle eastern peace process. Without America Daesh/ISIS will never be defeated. The weakness of US foreign policy over the last eight years has allowed extremists like Daesh, Al Qaeda and Al Nusra to flourish throughout the middle east and north and eastern Africa. It is a failure of engagement that the world will have to confront over the next decade or so.

Despite the preferences of its core of religious fundamentalists the last two decades have seen huge advances in gay rights in the US, most recently with the Supreme Court judgement confirming that the constitution guarantees a right to gay marriage.

And finally, has there ever been a country (with the possible exception of the UK) which has bequeathed the world a more diverse collection of musicians and songs? Just imagine a world without Glen Miller, Elvis Presley, Jim Reeves, Madonna, Lady Gaga, Miles Davis, Billie Holliday, Bob Dylan, Louis Armstrong or Michael Jackson.

I rest my case.

This article first appeared in Attitude Magazine

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain appears with Bucks Fizz in a Making Your Mind Up Video

A get out the vote video with a funny ending :)

Listen now

Diary

Attitude Column: Can I Persuade You to Become Gay?

22 Jun 2016 at 09:34

One of the questions gay people are often asked is “if you could be turned straight, would you want to be?” My reply is to counter the question with another question: “if you could be turned gay, would you want to be?” Answer comes there none. It’s a preposterous question, assuming one believes that there is a so-called ‘gay gene’ and that we’re all born the way we are.

Trouble is, there are still a huge number of people who believe that being gay is something we choose, or something we’re persuaded into. I get this often on my radio show. I usually ask the people who vehemently believe this whether they could themselves ever be ‘persuaded’ to be gay. “Of course not,” they splutter in indignation. “Well if you couldn’t be persuaded, why do you think anyone else could be?” Again, answer comes there none. Mostly.

I also ask these people why I would have chosen to be gay when my life might well have been much more straightforward and without complications if I had been straight and lived a straight lifestyle. Why would I choose to be something which attracts discrimination, bullying, insults and sniggering? Why? If we believe in the concept of ‘natural choice’ and believe that logic plays a part in our decisions, who, in their right mind would choose a lifestyle which is still seen by many as abhorrent? Far easier to fit into the mainstream.

I should make clear at this point that I regret nothing about being gay. I’m not one of those tortured self-loathing gays who think life is against them because of their inclinations. I’m proud of who I am and what I have done in my life. I am proud that I have married my partner and that last year we celebrated a twenty-year long relationship. Yes, it can be done!
If I could have had my life over again, and if the option were available to me, would I have chosen to be straight? I don’t have a yes/no answer to that question, but I err strongly on the side of ‘no’. In the end I don’t think there’s much point in speculating about it. For me it’s maybe simpler than for others as I have never wanted children. Workwise I only ever had two ambitions – to be an MP and to be a radio presenter. I am as sure as I can be that if I hadn’t been gay I would have achieved the former, but being gay has neither been an advantage or a disadvantage in the latter. But I have absolutely no regrets. By declaring I was gay to various selection committees I blazed a trail for others. It wasn’t something I really gave a lot of thought to until someone came up to me at a Tory conference and said thanks for making it easier for him and others.

Anyway, all this is building up to a plea to the government. A couple of years ago Amy Lame and I were doing a newspaper review on Sky News. Somehow we got to talking about gay conversion therapy. I suggested we should both go to the USA and offer ourselves to a gay conversion clinic and do an undercover documentary about it. We never did anything about it, but I wish we had because these clinics prey on the weak and the vulnerable and need to be closed down.

Nicky Morgan, the Education and Equalities Minister, has said that she wants to eradicate them, but at the time of writing these are just words. She said at the end of last year: “I was shocked to discover that one in 10 social and healthcare staff have heard colleagues express the belief that someone can be cured of being gay. Let me be clear: gay cure therapies have no place in our countries and we must stamp them out.”

Many people attend these clinics under pressure from their parents. You can’t necessarily put all the blame on the parents, who of often believe they are doing the best for their child. They do it out of both love and ignorance. They don’t realise the people who run them are quacks.

So yes, Nicky Morgan, fine words. But in 2016 they need to be turned into action.

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_collee

LBC Book Club: Iain Dale talks to Coleen Nolan

Coleen Nolan discusses her autobiography UPFRONT AND PERSONAL.

Listen now

Radio

It Shouldn't Happen to a Radio Presenter 47: Election Night Programme Wins International Radio Award

21 Jun 2016 at 21:00

So, I found out this morning that Shelagh Fogarty and I have won the Gold Award at the New York Radio Festival Awards for Best Coverage of an Ongoing News Story=, for our General Election night programme on LBC. Should you wish to listen to the entire 7 hours again, you can do so here

It was a terrific privilege to co-present the show and there were quite a few memorable moments. Given that we don’t have the resources of the BBC I think we put on a brilliant show, and that’s down to our producers Matt Harris, Jagruti Dave and Rachel Humphreys and everyone else involved.

And on Thursday night from 10pm we’ll be doing it all over again for the EU Referendum. Hope you’ll join us.

Here’s the award entry – a twenty minute highlights package from election night.

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_alogo

Iain Shows Why Tony Blair Is Not a War Criminal

Really.

Listen now

Video

WATCH: Michael Gove Interview & Farage v Heseltine Debate

21 Jun 2016 at 20:41

Quite a show today on LBC. I started off with a one on one interview with Michael Gove, then it was an hour long debate between Michael Heseltine and Nigel Farage. To say they didn’t hit it off was an understatement. Enjoy.

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_marymary

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Duke Safo

Duke Safo explains why he has turned to the internet to raise funds to pay for his mother's funeral.

Listen now

UK Politics

It Shouldn't Happen to a Radio Presenter 46: Interviewing George Osborne (The Man With No Post-Brexit Plan)

20 Jun 2016 at 21:32

This evening I did a 30 minute interview with the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, on my LBC show. It’s the longest radio interview he’s done in the EU Referendum campaign. It was originally scheduled for last Wednesday but he had to reschedule, which was a pity as it was the day he announced his so-called ‘emergency budget’. Unusually for me, I did a lot of preparation for this interview. Normally I like to treat interviews as conversations but with this one I knew I had to be rather more forensic than my normal style. Listen for yourself, but I think it paid off.

George Osborne has a habit of recognising when an interviewer is about to intervene or interrupt. His voice becomes a little louder and he makes sure he gets out what he had intended to say. He’s actually quite easy to interact with and I rather like interviewing him.

For me there were two main newslines to come out of this interview, but it will be interesting to see what gets the press coverage. For me the biggest revelation was that HM Treasury has done absolutely no planning for a Brexit scenario. Nada. Nichts. I could hardly believe what I was hearing. The polls show Leave and Remain neck and neck, yet the government has done no contingency planning at all? Breathtaking. If you just want to hear that part of the interview, click on the link below.

The other comment which I found most interesting was the section about what would happen on Friday morning. He didn’t seem to rule out redundancy notices being issued almost immediately. He clearly expects there to be some immediate job losses. He will be hoping that his own won’t be the first.

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_full_size_tom-bradby

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Tom Bradby

Tom Bradby talks about the film dramatisation of his novel SHADOW DANCER.

Listen now