General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 47. Greater Manchester

1 May 2017 at 20:36

GREATER MANCHESTER

Seats: 27
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 22
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Lab 21

1. Altrincham & Sale West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24176 (48.9%)
Labour: 11073 (22.4%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (25.5%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 11595 (23.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Brady 26,771 53.0 +4.0
Labour James Wright 13,481 26.7 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Jane Brophy 4,235 8.4 −17.1
UKIP Chris Frost 4,047 8.0 +4.8
Green Nick Robertson-Brown 1,983 3.9 +3.9
Majority 13,290 26.3 +2.8
Turnout 50,517 70.2 +0.9

Leave Vote: 38.6%

Sitting MP: Graham Brady (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Ashton under Lyne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9510 (24.7%)
Labour: 18604 (48.4%)
Lib Dem: 5703 (14.8%)
BNP: 2929 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Rayner 19,366 49.8 +1.4
Conservative Tracy Sutton 8,610 22.1 −2.6
UKIP Maurice Jackson 8,468 21.8 +17.4
Green Charlotte Hughes 1,531 3.9 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Carly Hicks 943 2.4 -12.4
Majority 10,756 27.6 +3.9
Turnout 38,918 57.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 63.4%

Sitting MP: Angela Rayner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Blackley & Broughton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6260 (18.3%)
Labour: 18563 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 4861 (14.2%)
BNP: 2469 (7.2%)
UKIP: 894 (2.6%)
Respect: 996 (2.9%)
Christian: 161 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12303 (36%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Stringer 22,982 61.9 +7.7
UKIP Martin Power 6,108 16.5 +13.8
Conservative Michelle Tanfield-Johnson 5,581 15.0 -3.3
Green David Jones 1,567 4.2 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Richard Gadsden 874 2.4 -11.9
Majority 16,874 45.5 +9.5
Turnout 37,112 51.6 +2.9

Leave Vote: 50%

Sitting MP: Graham Stringer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Bolton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15786 (36.5%)
Labour: 19870 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.2%)
Others: 182 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4084 (9.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Crausby 18,541 43.0 −3.0
Conservative James Daly 14,164 32.8 −3.7
UKIP Harry Lamb 8,117 18.8 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Stephen Rock 1,236 2.9 −10.1
Green Laura Diggle 1,103 2.6 +2.6
Majority 4,377 10.1 +0.7
Turnout 43,161 63.6 -0.7

Sitting MP: David Crausby (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Leave Vote: 58.1%

This seat used to be known as a weathervane seat. Labour’s majority increased last time but only because the huge increase in the UKIP vote suppressed the Conservative vote. Assuming a lot of the UKIP vote returns to the Tories this seat will fall.

5. Bolton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10148 (25.6%)
Labour: 18782 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 6289 (15.9%)
BNP: 2012 (5.1%)
Green: 614 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.9%)
Others: 195 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8634 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yasmin Qureshi 20,555 50.5 +3.0
UKIP Jeff Armstrong 9,627 23.6 +19.7
Conservative Mudasir Dean 8,289 20.3 −5.3
Green Alan Johnson 1,200 2.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Darren Reynolds 1,072 2.6 −13.2
Majority 10,928 26.8
Turnout 40,743 58.5

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Bolton West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18235 (38.3%)
Labour: 18327 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 8177 (17.2%)
Green: 545 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 137 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Green 19,744 40.6 +2.3
Labour Julie Hilling 18,943 39.0 +0.5
UKIP Bob Horsefield 7,428 15.3 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,947 4.0 -13.2
Independent Andy Smith 321 0.7 +0.7
TUSC John Vickers 209 0.4 +0.4
Majority 801 1.6
Turnout 48,592 66.8

Leave Vote: 55.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Green (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Bury North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18070 (40.2%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.9%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2243 (5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Nuttall 18,970 41.9 +1.8
Labour James Frith 18,592 41.1 +5.9
UKIP Ian Henderson 5,595 12.4 +9.5
Green John Southworth 1,141 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat Richard Baum 932 2.1 −14.9
Majority 378 0.8 −4.2
Turnout 45,230 66.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: David Nuttall (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Bury South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16216 (33.6%)
Labour: 19508 (40.4%)
Lib Dem: 8796 (18.2%)
BNP: 1743 (3.6%)
Green: 493 (1%)
UKIP: 1017 (2.1%)
English Dem: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3292 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ivan Lewis 21,272 45.1 +4.6
Conservative Daniel Critchlow 16,350 34.6 +1.0
UKIP Séamus Martin 6,299 13.3 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Paul Ankers 1,690 3.6 −14.6
Green Glyn Heath 1,434 3.0 +2.0
English Democrat Valerie Morris 170 0.4 −0.7
Majority 4,922 10.4 +3.6
Turnout 47,215 63.9 −1.7

Lave Vote: 54.5%

Sitting MP: Ivan Lewis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ivan Lewis is in danger here but the UKIP vote isn’t that high here so there is more for the Tory candidate to do to win. I suspect Lewis will prevail.

9. Cheadle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21445 (40.8%)
Labour: 4920 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 24717 (47.1%)
UKIP: 1430 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 3272 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mary Robinson 22,889 43.1 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Mark Hunter 16,436 31.0 -16.1
Labour Martin Miller 8,673 16.3 +7.0
UKIP Shaun Hopkins 4,423 8.3 +5.6
Independent Matthew Torbitt 390 0.7 +0.7
Above and Beyond Drew Carswell 208 0.4 +0.4
Independence from Europe Helen Bashford 76 0.1 +0.1
Majority 6,453 12.2
Turnout 53,095 72.5

Sitting MP: Mary Robinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Denton & Reddish

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9360 (24.9%)
Labour: 19191 (51%)
Lib Dem: 6727 (17.9%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.5%)
Independent: 297 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 9831 (26.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andrew Gwynne 19,661 50.8 −0.2
Conservative Lana Hempsall 9,150 23.7 −1.2
UKIP Andrew Fairfoull 7,225 18.7 +13.2
Green Nick Koopman 1,466 3.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mark Jewell 957 2.5 −15.4
Independent Victoria Lofas 222 0.6 N/A
Majority 10,511 27.2
Turnout 38,681 58.1

Leave Vote: 61.4%

Sitting MP: Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Hazel Grove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14114 (33.6%)
Labour: 5234 (12.5%)
Lib Dem: 20485 (48.8%)
UKIP: 2148 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6371 (15.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative William Wragg 17,882 41.8 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Lisa Smart 11,330 26.2 -22.6
Labour Michael Taylor 7,584 17.5 +5.1
UKIP Darran Palmer 5,283 12.2 +7.1
Green Graham Reid 1,140 2.6 +2.6
Majority 6,552 15.2
Turnout 42,759 68.5 +1.9

Leave Vote: 51.7%

Sitting MP: William Wragg (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Heywood & Middleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12528 (27.2%)
Labour: 18499 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10474 (22.7%)
BNP: 3239 (7%)
UKIP: 1215 (2.6%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5971 (12.9%)

BY-ELECTION
Liz McInnes (Labour) 11633 40.9% (0.8%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11016 38.7% (
36.1%)
Iain Gartside (Conservative) 3496 12.3% (-14.9%)
Anthony Smith (Liberal Democrat) 1457 5.1% (-17.6%)
Abi Jackson (Green) 870 3.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 617 2.2% (-10.7%)
Turnout 36% (-21.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liz McInnes 20,926 43.1 +3.0
UKIP John Bickley 15,627 32.2 +29.6
Conservative Iain Gartside 9,268 19.1 −8.1
Liberal Democrat Anthony Smith 1,607 3.3 −19.4
Green Abi Jackson 1,110 2.3 +2.3
Majority 5,299 10.9
Turnout 48,538 60.7

Leave Vote: 61.9%

Sitting MP: Liz McInnes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Leigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9284 (20.9%)
Labour: 21295 (48%)
Lib Dem: 8049 (18.2%)
BNP: 2724 (6.1%)
UKIP: 1535 (3.5%)
Christian: 137 (0.3%)
Independent: 988 (2.2%)
Others: 320 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12011 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andy Burnham 24,312 53.9 +5.8
Conservative Louisa Townson 10,216 22.6 +1.7
UKIP Les Leggett 8,903 19.7 +16.3
Liberal Democrat Bill Winlow 1,150 2.5 −15.6
TUSC Stephen Hall 542 1.2 N/A
Majority 14,096 31.2 +4.1
Turnout 45,123 59.4 −2.6

Leave Vote: 63.3%

Sitting MP: Andy Burnham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Makerfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8210 (18.8%)
Labour: 20700 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 7082 (16.2%)
BNP: 3229 (7.4%)
Independent: 3424 (7.8%)
Others: 1126 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12490 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yvonne Fovargue 23,208 51.8 +4.5
UKIP Andrew Collinson 10,053 22.4 +22.4
Conservative Syeda Zaidi 8,752 19.5 +0.8
Liberal Democrat John Skipworth 1,639 3.7 −12.5
Green Philip Mitchell 1,136 2.5 +2.5
Majority 13,155 29.4 +0.9
Turnout 44,788 60.2 +0.8

Leave Vote: 64.9%

Sitting MP: Yvonne Fovargue (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

15. Manchester Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4704 (11.8%)
Labour: 21059 (52.7%)
Lib Dem: 10620 (26.6%)
BNP: 1636 (4.1%)
Green: 915 (2.3%)
UKIP: 607 (1.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
Others: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10439 (26.1%)

BY ELECTION
Lucy Powell (Labour) 11507 69.1% (16.4%)
Marc Ramsbottom (Liberal Democrat) 1571 9.4% (-17.2%)
Matthew Sephton (Conservative) 754 4.5% (-7.3%)
Chris Cassidy (UKIP) 749 4.5% (
3.0%)
Tom Dylan (Green) 652 3.9% (1.6%)
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP) 492 3% (-1.1%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 308 1.9% (n/a)
Alex Davidson (TUSC) 220 1.3% (n/a)
Catherine Higgins (Respect) 182 1.1% (n/a)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 78 0.5% (n/a)
Lee Holmes (Peoples Democratic) 71 0.4% (n/a)
Peter Clifford (Communist League) 64 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 9936 59.7% (
33.6%)
Turnout 18.2% (-28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Lucy Powell 27,772 61.3 +8.5
Conservative Xingang Wang 6,133 13.5 +1.7
UKIP Myles Power 5,033 11.1 +9.6
Green Kieran Turner-Dave 3,838 8.5 +6.2
Liberal Democrat John Reid 1,867 4.1 −22.5
Pirate Loz Kaye 346 0.8 N/A
TUSC Alex Davidson 270 0.6 N/A
Communist League John Davies 72 0.2 N/A
Majority 21,639 47.7 +21.6
Turnout 45,331 52.7 +6.0

Leave Vote: 36.4%

Sitting MP: Lucy Powell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

16. Manchester Gorton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4224 (11%)
Labour: 19211 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 12508 (32.6%)
Green: 1048 (2.7%)
Respect: 507 (1.3%)
Christian: 254 (0.7%)
TUSC: 337 (0.9%)
Others: 236 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6703 (17.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gerald Kaufman 28,187 67.1 +17.0
Green Laura Bannister 4,108 9.8 +7.0
Conservative Mohammed Afzal 4,063 9.7 -1.4
UKIP Phil Eckersley 3,434 8.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Dave Page 1,782 4.2 -28.4
TUSC Simon Hickman 264 0.6 -0.3
Pirate Cris Chesha 181 0.4 -0.2
Majority 24,079 57.3 +39.8
Turnout 42,019 57.6 +7.1

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Kaufman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

17. Manchester Withington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5005 (11.1%)
Labour: 18216 (40.5%)
Lib Dem: 20110 (44.7%)
Green: 798 (1.8%)
UKIP: 698 (1.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1894 (4.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jeff Smith 26,843 53.7 +13.3
Liberal Democrat John Leech 11,970 24.0 −20.7
Conservative Robert Manning 4,872 9.8 −1.4
Green Lucy Bannister 4,048 8.1 +6.3
UKIP Mark Davies 2,172 4.3 +2.8
Independent Marcus Farmer 61 0.1 0.0
Majority 14,873 29.8
Turnout 49,966 67.5 +5.5

Leave Vote: 38.2%

Sitting MP: Jeff Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

18. Oldham East & Saddleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11773 (26.4%)
Labour: 14186 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 14083 (31.6%)
BNP: 2546 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1720 (3.9%)
Christian: 212 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 103 (0.2%)

BY-ELECTION
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) 14718 42.1% (10.2%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) 11160 31.9% (
0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) 4481 12.8% (-13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 2029 5.8% (1.9%)
Derek Adams (BNP) 1560 4.5% (-1.2%)
Peter Allen (Green) 530 1.5% (n/a)
Nick the Flying Brick Delves (Loony) 145 0.4% (n/a)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) 144 0.4% (n/a)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 96 0.3% (n/a)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis) 67 0.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 3558 10.2% (
10%)

2015 Result:
Labour Debbie Abrahams 17,529 39.4 +7.5
Conservative Sajjad Hussain 11,527 25.9 −0.5
UKIP Peter Klonowski 8,557 19.2 +15.4
Liberal Democrat Richard Marbrow 5,718 12.9 −18.8
Green Miranda Meadowcroft 1,152 2.6 N/A
Majority 6,002 13.5 +13.3
Turnout 44,483 61.8 +0.6

Leave Vote: 57.9%

Sitting MP: Debbie Abrahams (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A possible upset here if the stars align. Not sure they will, though.

19. Oldham West & Royton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10151 (23.7%)
Labour: 19503 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 8193 (19.1%)
BNP: 3049 (7.1%)
UKIP: 1387 (3.2%)
Respect: 627 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9352 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim McMahon 17,209 62.1 +7.3
UKIP John Bickley 6,487 23.4 +2.8
Conservative James Daly 2,596 9.4 −9.6
Liberal Democrat Jane Brophy 1,024 3.7 0.0
Green Simeon Hart 249 0.9 −1.0
Monster Raving Loony Sir Oink A-Lot 141 0.5 N/A
Majority 10,722 38.7 +4.5
Turnout 27,706 40.3 −19.3

Leave Vote: 62.3%

Sitting MP: Jim McMahon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

20. Rochdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8305 (18.1%)
Labour: 16699 (36.4%)
Lib Dem: 15810 (34.4%)
UKIP: 1999 (4.4%)
Independent: 313 (0.7%)
Others: 2781 (6.1%)
MAJORITY: 889 (1.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Simon Danczuk 20,961 46.1 +9.8
UKIP Mohammed Masud 8,519 18.8 +14.4
Conservative Azi Ahmed 7,742 17.0 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Andy Kelly 4,667 10.3 -24.2
Rochdale First Farooq Ahmed 1,535 3.4 N/A
Green Mark Hollinrake 1,382 3.0 N/A
National Front Kevin Bryan 433 1.0 -3.9
Islam Zinda Baad Platform Mohammed Salim 191 0.4 -0.8
Majority 12,442 27.4 +25.5
Turnout 45,430 57.4 -0.7

Sitting MP: Simon Danczuk (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

21. Salford & Eccles

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8497 (20.5%)
Labour: 16655 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10930 (26.3%)
BNP: 2632 (6.3%)
UKIP: 1084 (2.6%)
English Dem: 621 (1.5%)
TUSC: 730 (1.8%)
Independent: 384 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5725 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rebecca Long-Bailey 21,364 49.4 +9.3
Conservative Greg Downes 8,823 20.4 −0.1
UKIP Paul Doyle 7,806 18.0 +15.4
Green Emma Van Dyke 2,251 5.2 +5.2
Liberal Democrat Charlie Briggs 1,614 3.7 −22.6
We are the Reality Party Mark “Bez” Berry 703 1.6 +1.6
TUSC Noreen Bailey 517 1.2 −0.6
Pirate Sam Clark 183 0.4 +0.4
Majority 12,541 29.0 +15.2
Turnout 43,261 58.2 +3.2

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Rebecca Long-Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

22. Stalybridge & Hyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13445 (32.9%)
Labour: 16189 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 6965 (17%)
BNP: 2259 (5.5%)
Green: 679 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1342 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 2744 (6.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Jonathan Reynolds 18,447 45.0 +5.4
Conservative Martin Riley 11,761 28.7 -4.2
UKIP Angela McManus 7,720 18.8 +15.5
Green Jenny Ross 1,850 4.5 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Flynn 1,256 3.1 -14.0
Majority 6,686 16.3 +9.6
Turnout 41,034 59.4 +0.2

Leave Vote: 58.5%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Con gain
Revised: *Lab& hold

Jonathan Reynolds is one of the nicest politicians you could hope to meet, so I assume he is a very diligent constituency MP. He may need every vote of his personal vote to pull through here. But with UKIP not standing, a Tory gain is very likely.

23. Stockport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9913 (25.3%)
Labour: 16697 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9778 (25%)
BNP: 1201 (3.1%)
Green: 677 (1.7%)
UKIP: 862 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 6784 (17.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ann Coffey 19,771 49.9 +7.2
Conservative Daniel Hamilton 9,710 24.5 -0.8
UKIP Steven Woolfe 5,206 13.1 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Daniel Hawthorne 3,034 7.7 -17.3
Green Gary Lawson 1,753 4.4 +2.7
Left Unity John Pearson 175 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,061 25.4
Turnout 39,649 62.0

Leave Vote: 47.9%

Sitting MP: Ann Coffey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

24. Stretford & Urmston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12886 (28.7%)
Labour: 21821 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 7601 (16.9%)
Green: 916 (2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.4%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 8935 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kate Green 24,601 53.0 +4.4
Conservative Lisa Cooke 12,916 27.8 -0.8
UKIP Kalvin Chapman 5,068 10.9 +7.6
Green Geraldine Coggins 2,187 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Louise Ankers 1,362 2.9 -14.0
Whig Paul Bradley-Law 169 0.4 +0.4
Population Party UK Paul Carson 83 0.2 +0.2
Majority 11,685 25.2 +5.3
Turnout 46,386 66.8 +2.7

Leave Vote: 48.9%

Sitting MP: Kate Green (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

25. Wigan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10917 (24.7%)
Labour: 21404 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (15.4%)
BNP: 2506 (5.7%)
UKIP: 2516 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 10487 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lisa Nandy 23,625 52.2 +3.7
Conservative Caroline Kerswell 9,389 20.7 −4.0
UKIP Mark Bradley 8,818 19.5 +13.8
Green Will Patterson 1,273 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mark Clayton 1,255 2.8 -12.6
Wigan Independents Gareth Fairhurst 768 1.7 N/A
Independent Brian Parr 165 0.4 N/A
Majority 14,236 31.4 +7.6
Turnout 45,293 59.5 +1.1

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Lisa Nandy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

26. Worsley & Eccles South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13555 (32.5%)
Labour: 17892 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 6883 (16.5%)
UKIP: 2037 (4.9%)
English Dem: 1334 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 4337 (10.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Barbara Keeley 18,600 44.2 +1.3
Conservative Iain Lindley 12,654 30.1 -2.4
UKIP Owen Hammond 7,688 18.3 +13.4
Green Chris Bertenshaw 1,242 3.0 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Kate Clarkson 1,100 2.6 -13.9
TUSC Steve North 380 0.9 +0.9
Reality Mags McNally 200 0.5 +0.5
Independent Geoffrey Berg 184 0.4 +0.4
Majority 5,946 14.1

Leave Vote: 62.2%

Sitting MP: Barbara Keeley (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Could be a tight one. It would need to be a huge landslide for this one to fall.

27. Wythenshawe & Sale East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
TUSC: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)

BY ELECTION
Mike Kane (Labour): 13,261
John Bickley (UKIP): 4,301
Reverend Daniel Critchlow (Conservatives): 3,479
Mary Di Mauro (Lib Dem): 1,176
Nigel Woodcock (Green Party): 748
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP): 708
Captain Chaplington-Smythe (Monster Raving Loony): 288
Turnout: 28%

2015 Result:
Mike Kane Labour 21,693 50.1 +6.0
Fiona Green Conservative 11,124 25.7 +0.2
Lee Clayton UKIP 6,354 14.7 +11.2
Victor Chamberlain Liberal Democrat 1,927 4.5 -17.9
Jess Mayo Green 1,658 3.8 N/A
Johnny Disco Monster Raving Loony 292 0.7 N/A
Lynn Worthington TUSC 215 0.5 -0.2
ajority: 10,569 (24.4%)
Swing: 3.0% from Con to Lab

Sitting MP: Michael Kane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lbclogo

LBC Parliament: With Hilary Devey, Peter Tatchell & Melanie Philips

The LBC Parliament is broadcast every Thursday from 7-8pm

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 46. North Yorkshire

1 May 2017 at 19:04

NORTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 1

1. Harrogate & Knaresborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Jones 28,153 52.7 +7.0
Liberal Democrat Helen Flynn 11,782 22.1 -21.7
UKIP David Simister 5,681 10.6 +8.7
Labour Jan Williams 5,409 10.1 +3.7
Green Shan Oakes 2,351 4.4 N/A
Majority 16,371 30.7 +28.7
Turnout 53,376 69.0 -1.6

Leave Vote: 47.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Richmond

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rishi Sunak 27,744 51.4 −11.4
UKIP Matthew Cooke 8,194 15.2 +15.2
Labour Mike Hill 7,124 13.2 −2.1
Liberal Democrat John Harris 3,465 6.4 −12.7
Independent John Blackie 3,348 6.2 +6.2
Green Leslie Rowe 2,313 4.3 +1.4
Independent Robin Scott 1,811 3.4 +3.4
Majority 19,550 36.2
Turnout 53,999 64.7

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Rishi Sunak (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Scarborough & Whitby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Goodwill 20,613 43.2 +0.3
Labour Ian McInnes 14,413 30.2 +3.9
UKIP Sam Cross 8,162 17.1 +14.1
Green David Malone 2,185 4.6 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Michael Beckett 2,159 4.5 -18.0
Alliance for Green Socialism Juliet Boddington 207 0.4 +0.2
Majority 6,200 13.0
Turnout 47,739 64.9

Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Selby & Ainsty

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Adams 27,725 52.5 +3.1
Labour Mark Hayes 14,168 26.8 +1.1
UKIP Colin Heath 7,389 14.0 +10.8
Liberal Democrat Nicola Turner 1,920 3.6 -14.1
Green Ian Richards 1,465 2.8 N/A
TUSC Ian Wilson 137 0.3 N/A
Majority 13,557 25.7
Turnout 52,804 69.4

Leave Vote: 57.7%

Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Skipton & Ripon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Smith 30,248 55.4 +4.9
Labour Malcolm Birks 9,487 17.4 +7.3
UKIP Alan Henderson 7,651 14.0 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 4,057 7.4 −25.0
Green Andy Brown 3,116 5.7 N/A
Majority 20,761 38.1 +19.9
Turnout 54,559 71.6 +0.9

Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Thirsk & Malton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kevin Hollinrake 27,545 52.6 -0.3
Labour Alan Avery 8,089 15.4 +1.9
UKIP Toby Horton 7,805 14.9 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Di Keal 4,703 9.0 -14.3
Green Chris Newsam 2,404 4.6 N/A
Liberal John Clark 1,127 2.2 -1.6
Independent Philip Tate 692 1.3 N/A
Majority 19,456 37.2
Turnout 52,365 67.6

Sitting MP: Kevin Hollinrake (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. York Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rachael Maskell 20,212 42.4 +2.4
Conservative Robert McIlveen 13,496 28.3 +2.2
UKIP Ken Guest 4,795 10.1 +7.7
Green Jonathan Tyler 4,791 10.0 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Nick Love 3,804 8.0 -17.2
Yorkshire First Chris Whitwood 291 0.6 +0.6
TUSC Megan Ollerhead 288 0.6 +0.6
Majority 6,716 14.1 +0.2
Turnout 47,677 63.3 +1.2

Leave Vote: 38.8%

Sitting MP: Rachael Maskell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. York Outer

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Sturdy 26,477 49.1 +6.1
Labour Joe Riches 13,348 24.8 +7.7
Liberal Democrat James Blanchard 6,269 11.6 -24.4
UKIP Paul Abbott 5,251 9.7 +7.7
Green Ginnie Shaw 2,558 4.7 +4.7
Majority 13,129 24.4 +17.5
Turnout 53,903 68.6 −2.5

Leave Vote: 44.7%

Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_alogo

Iain interviews Fern Britton

Fern Britton talks about mental illness and excessive homework

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 45. Highlands & Islands

1 May 2017 at 18:17

Scotland – North & Islands

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5, LibDem 1

1. Orkney & Shetland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrats Alistair Carmichael10 9,407 41.4 −20.6
SNP Danus Skene 8,590 37.8 +27.2
Conservative Donald Cameron11 2,025 8.9 −1.6
Labour Gerry McGarvey 1,624 7.1 −3.5
UKIP Robert Smith12 1,082 4.8 −1.6
Majority 817 3.6 -47.7
Turnout 22,728 65.8 +7.3

Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

2. Na h-Eileanan an lar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angus MacNeil 8,662 54.3 +8.6
Labour Alasdair Morrison 4,560 28.6 −4.3
Conservative Mark Brown 1,215 7.6 +3.2
Scottish Christian John Cormack 1,045 6.6 n/a
Liberal Democrat Ruaraidh Ferguson 456 2.9 −4.6
Majority 4,102 25.7 +12.9
Turnout 15,938 73.2 +7.1

Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Paul Monaghan 15,831 46.3 +27.1
Liberal Democrat John Thurso 11,987 35.1 −6.3
Labour John Erskine 3,061 9.0 −15.7
Conservative Alastair Graham 2,326 6.8 −6.2
UKIP Annie Murray 981 2.9 N/A
Majority 3,844 11.2 n/a
Turnout 34,186 71.9 +11.0

Sitting MP: Paul Monaghan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

A LibDem target, yet they failed to make any progress at the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections.

4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Ian Blackford 20,119 48.1 +33.0
Liberal Democrat Charles Kennedy 14,995 35.9 -16.8
Conservative Lindsay McCallum 2,598 6.2 -6.0
Labour Chris Conniff 2,043 4.9 -10.2
Scottish Green Anne Thomas 1,051 2.5 +0.3
UKIP Philip Anderson 814 1.9 +0.1
Independent Ronnie Campbell 191 0.5 -0.3
Majority 5,124 12.3
Turnout 41,811 77.2 +10.0

Sitting MP: Ian Blackford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not a huge majority, but sadly Charles Kennedy isn’t here to challenge it.

5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Drew Hendry5 28,838 50.1 +31.4
Liberal Democrats Danny Alexander 18,029 31.3 -9.4
Labour Mike Robb 4,311 7.5 -14.6
Conservative Edward Mountain 3,410 5.9 -7.4
Scottish Green Isla O’Reilly 1,367 2.4 +0.7
UKIP Les Durance 1,236 2.1 +0.9
Scottish Christian Donald Boyd6 422 0.7 -1.0
Majority 10,809 18.8
Turnout 57,613 74.2 +9.3

Sitting MP: Drew Hendry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

6. Moray

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angus Robertson 24,384 49.5 +9.8
Conservative Douglas Ross 15,319 31.1 +5.0
Labour Sean Morton 4,898 9.9 −7.1
UKIP Robert Scorer 1,939 3.9 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 1,395 2.8 −11.7
Scottish Green James MacKessack-Leitch 1,345 2.7 N/A
Majority 9,065 18.4 +4.8
Turnout 49,280 68.7 +6.5

Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

The Conservatives are heavily taregting this seat. Certainly in the Scottish Parliament elections it was a tigher race than in 2015, but it’s still quite a majority to overcome. A Tory gain here is highly doubtful, but in the world of Scottish politics at the moment, anything can happen.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_alogo

When Sajid Javid Couldn't Answer My Question

The Treasury Minister flounders

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 44. Scotland - North East

1 May 2017 at 17:50

Scotland – North East

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5, Con 1

7. Banff & Buchan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Eilidh Whiteford 27,487 60.2 +18.9
Conservative Alex Johnstone 13,148 28.8 −2.0
Labour Sumon Hoque1 2,647 5.8 −8.2
Liberal Democrat David Evans 2,347 5.1 −6.2
Majority 14,339 31.4 +18.9
Turnout 45,629 66.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

8. Gordon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alex Salmond10 27,717 47.7 +25.5
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 19,030 32.7 −3.3
Conservative Colin Clark 6,807 11.7 −7.0
Labour Braden Davy 3,441 5.9 −14.2
UKIP Emily Santos11 1,166 2.0 N/A
Majority 8,687 15.0
Turnout 58,161 73.3 +6.9

Sitting MP: Alex Salmond (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

9. Aberdeen North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Kirsty Blackman 24,793 56.4 +34.2
Labour Richard Baker 11,397 25.9 −18.5
Conservative Sanjoy Sen 5,304 12.1 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 2,050 4.7 −13.9
TUSC Tyrinne Rutherford 206 0.5 +0.5
National Front Christopher Willett 186 0.4 +0.4
Majority 13,396 30.5
Turnout 43,936 64.9 +6.7

Sitting MP: Kirsty Blackman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

10. Aberdeen South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Callum McCaig 20,221 41.6 +29.8
Labour Anne Begg 12,991 26.8 −9.8
Conservative Ross Thomson 11,087 22.8 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Denis Rixon 2,252 4.6 −23.7
Scottish Green Dan Yeats 964 2.0 +1.0
UKIP Sandra Skinner 897 1.8 N/A
Independent Christopher Gray 139 0.3 N/A
Majority 7,230 14.9
Turnout 48,551 71.3 +4.1

Sitting MP: Callum McCaig (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stuart Blair Donaldson 22,949 41.6 +25.9
Conservative Alexander James Amherst Burnett 15,916 28.8 -1.4
Liberal Democrat Sir Robert Hill Smith 11,812 21.4 -17.0
Labour Barry Black 2,487 4.5 -9.1
UKIP David Michael Lansdell 1,006 1.8 +1.6
Scottish Green Richard Paul Openshaw 885 1.6 +1.6
Independent Graham Reid 141 0.3 +0.3
Majority 7,033 12.7
Turnout 55,196 75.2 +6.8

Sitting MP: Stuart Blair Donaldson (SNP)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A surprise gain for the SNP last time, this was in effect a three way marginal. It still could be, but it’s a moot point as to whether the Conservatives can really eat into the SNP vote here. But they did so in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

12. Angus

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Mike Weir 24,130 54.2 +14.7
Conservative Derek Wann 12,900 29.0 −1.9
Labour Gerard McMahon 3,919 8.8 −8.4
UKIP Calum Walker 1,355 3.0 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Sanjay Samani 1,216 2.7 −8.0
Scottish Green David Mumford 965 2.2 N/A
Majority 11,230 25.2 +16.6
Turnout 44,485 67.6 +7.2

Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_joshaw

Iain is Interviewed by Alex Foster of LibDem Voice

At the LibDem Conference

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 43. Scotland - Central

1 May 2017 at 17:35

Scotland – Central

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: SNP 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5
Revised: Con 1, SNP 4

13. Dundee East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stewart Hosie 28,765 59.7 +21.9
Labour Lesley Brennan 9,603 19.9 −13.4
Conservative Bill Bowman 7,206 15.0 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 1,387 2.9 −7.7
Scottish Green Helen Grayshan 895 1.9 +0.5
CISTA Lesley Parker-Hamilton 225 0.5 N/A
TUSC Carlo Morelli 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 19,162 39.8 +34.3
Turnout 48,185 71.0 +9.0

Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

14. Dundee West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Chris Law 27,684 61.9 +33.0
Labour Michael Marra 10,592 23.7 −24.8
Conservative Nicola Ross 3,852 8.6 −0.7
Scottish Green Pauline Hinchion5 1,225 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Daniel Coleman6 1,057 2.4 −9.0
TUSC Jim McFarlane7 304 0.7 −0.3
Majority 17,092 38.2
Turnout 44,714 67.8 +8.8

Sitting MP: Chris Law (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

15. Perth & North Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Pete Wishart 27,379 50.5 +10.9
Conservative Alexander Stewart6 17,738 32.7 +2.2
Labour Scott Nicholson 4,413 8.1 -8.3
Liberal Democrats Peter Barrett 2,059 3.8 -8.5
Scottish Green Louise Ramsay 1,146 2.1 n/a
UKIP John Myles 1,110 2.0 n/a
Independent Xander McDade 355 0.7 n/a
Majority 9,641 17.8 +8.7
Turnout 54,200 74.8 +7.9

Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Con gain

Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.

16. Argyll & Bute

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Brendan O’Hara 22,959 44.3 +25.3
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 14,486 27.9 −3.7
Conservative Alastair Redman 7,733 14.9 −9.1
Labour Mary Galbraith 5,394 10.4 −12.3
UKIP Caroline Santos5 1,311 2.5 N/A
Majority 8,473 16.3 N/A
Turnout 51,883 75.3 +8.0

Sitting MP: Brendan O’Hara (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

17. Stirling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)

2015 Result:
SNP Steven Paterson 23,783 45.6 +28.3
Labour Johanna Boyd 13,303 25.5 −16.2
Conservative Stephen Kerr 12,051 23.1 −0.9
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 1,606 3.1 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 1,392 2.7 −11.8
Majority 10,480 20.1
Turnout 52,135 77.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Steven Paterson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_0b2f4a8a-c3cb-45ae-993b-2c22ad20e86c

Iain Confronts Sajid Javid About Tweet

It's called a skewering...

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 42: Scotland - Edinburgh

1 May 2017 at 12:42

Scotland – Edinburgh

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: SNP 8, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 9
Revised: Lab 1, Lib 1, SNP 7

34. Linlithgow & Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Martyn Day6 32,055 52.0 +26.6
Labour Michael Connarty6 19,121 31.0 −18.8
Conservative Sandy Batho6 7,384 12.0 +0.1
UKIP Alistair Forrest6 1,682 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Emma Farthing-Sykes7 1,252 2.0 −10.8
National Front Neil McIvor6 103 0.2 n/a
Majority 12,934 21.0
Turnout 61,597 70.8 +7.2

Sitting MP: Martyn Day (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

35. Livingston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Hannah Bardell 32,736 56.9 +31.0
Labour Graeme Morrice7 15,893 27.6 −20.8
Conservative Chris Donnelly 5,929 10.3 −0.5
UKIP Nathan Somerville8 1,757 3.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas9 1,232 2.1 −9.0
Majority 16,843 29.3
Turnout 57,547 69.9 +6.8

Sitting MP: Hannah Bardell (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

36. Edinburgh West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Michelle Thomson 21,378 39.0 +25.8
Liberal Democrats Mike Crockart 18,168 33.1 −2.8
Conservative Lindsay Paterson 6,732 12.3 −10.9
Labour Cameron Day 6,425 11.7 −16.0
Scottish Green Pat Black 1,140 2.1 N/A
UKIP Otto Inglis 1,015 1.9 n/a
Majority 3,210 5.9
Turnout 54,858 76.5 +5.2

Sitting MP: Michelle Thomson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Lib gain

Given Michelle Thomson’s, er, troubles, this might well depress the SNP vote here, even though she’s not standing again. Could well be a LibDem gain.

37. Edinburgh South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Joanna Cherry4 22,168 43.0 +30.8
Labour Ricky Henderson5 14,033 27.2 -15.6
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst6 10,444 20.2 -4.0
Scottish Green Richard Doherty7 1,965 3.8 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Daniel Farthing-Sykes8 1,920 3.7 -14.3
UKIP Richard Lucas9 1,072 2.1 n/a
Majority 8,135 15.8
Turnout 51,602 71.5 +3.0

Sitting MP: Joanna Cherry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not the safest of seats for the SNP, but it’s difficult to see Labour coming back here given their poll ratings.

38. Edinburgh North & Leith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Deidre Brock 23,742 40.9 +31.3
Labour Co-op Mark Lazarowicz7 18,145 31.3 -6.2
Conservative Iain McGill8 9,378 16.2 +1.3
Scottish Green Sarah Beattie-Smith9 3,140 5.4 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart10 2,634 4.5 -29.3
UKIP Alan Melville11 847 1.5 n/a
Left Unity Bruce Whitehead12 122 0.2 n/a
Majority 5,597 9.6
Turnout 58,008 71.7 +3.3

Sitting MP: Deirdre Brock (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not a massive majority, but again, is Labour really in a position to mount a serious challenge? The answer is no.

39. Edinburgh East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tommy Sheppard 23,188 49.2 +28.8
Labour Sheila Gilmore 14,082 29.9 −13.5
Conservative James McMordie 4,670 9.9 −1.0
Scottish Green Peter McColl 2,809 6.0 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Karen Utting 1,325 2.8 −16.6
UKIP Oliver Corbishley8 898 1.9 N/A
TUSC Ayesha Saleem 9 117 0.2 −0.4
Majority 9,106 19.3
Turnout 47,089 70.1 +4.7

Sitting MP: Tommy Sheppard (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

40. Edinburgh South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Murray 19,293 39.1 +4.4
SNP Neil Hay 16,656 33.8 +26.1
Conservative Miles Briggs 8,626 17.5 -4.1
Scottish Green Phyl Meyer 2,090 4.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrats Pramod Subbaraman 1,823 3.7 -30.3
UKIP Paul Marshall 601 1.2 n/a
Scottish Socialist Colin Fox 197 0.4 n/a
Majority 2,637 5.4 +4.7
Turnout 49,286 74.9 +1.1

Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Revised: Lab hold

The state of the Scottish Labour Party makes it highly likely this seat will fall to the SNP leaving Labour with no seats in Scotland at all. Incredible.

41. Midlothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Owen Thompson7 24,453 50.6 +30.0
Labour Kenny Young8 14,594 30.2 −16.8
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne7 5,760 11.9 0.0
Scottish Green Ian Baxter9 1,219 2.5 +1.0
UKIP Gordon Norrie10 1,173 2.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Aisha Mir 1,132 2.3 −14.8
Majority 9,859 20.4
Turnout 48,331 71.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: Owen Thompson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

42. East Lothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
SNP George Kerevan 25,104 42.5 +26.5
Labour Fiona O’Donnell7 18,301 31.0 −13.6
Conservative David Roach8 11,511 19.5 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer9 1,517 2.6 −14.3
Scottish Green Jason Rose10 1,245 2.1 +0.4
UKIP Oluf Marshall 1,178 2.0 +0.9
Independent Mike Allan 158 0.3 N/A
Majority 6,803 11.5
Turnout 59,014 74.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: George Kerevan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

1 comment

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_watch

Video: Iain Comments on the One Way US Extradition Treaty

Sky News paper review

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 41. Fife

1 May 2017 at 12:30

Scotland – Fife

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 6
Revised: Lib 1, SNP 5

18. Ochil & South Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh 26,620 46.0 +18.4
Labour Gordon Banks 16,452 28.4 -9.5
Conservative Luke Graham 11,987 20.7 +0.2
Liberal Democrats Iliyan Stefanov 1,481 2.6 -8.8
UKIP Martin Gray 1,331 2.3 +0.9
Majority 10,168 17.6
Turnout 57,871 74.8 +7.6

Sitting MP: Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

19. North East Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stephen Gethins4 18,523 40.9 +26.7
Liberal Democrat Tim Brett5 14,179 31.3 −13.0
Conservative Huw Matthew Bell6 7,373 16.3 −5.5
Labour Brian Thomson7 3,476 7.7 −9.5
Scottish Green Andrew Collins8 1,387 3.1 N/A
Independent Mike Scott-Hayward9 325 0.7 N/A
Majority 4,344 9.6
Turnout 45,263 73.0 +6.4

Sitting MP: Stephen Gethins (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Lib gain

Stephen Gethins has had a high profile as SNP Europe spokesman and this may see him home, but a LibDem gain is certainly not out of the question here. The key for Ming Campbell’s successor is to target soft Tory votes. But in all likelihood, Gethins will hang on.

20. Glenrothes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Peter Grant 28,459 59.8 +38.2
Labour Melanie Ward 14,562 30.6 −31.7
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark6 3,685 7.7 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jane Ann Liston7 892 1.9 −5.8
Majority 13,897 29.2
Turnout 47,598 68.2 +8.5

Sitting MP: Peter Grant (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Roger Mullin 27,628 52.2 +37.9
Labour Co-op Kenny Selbie 17,654 33.4 -31.2
Conservative Dave Dempsey 5,223 9.9 +0.6
UKIP Jack Neill 1,237 2.3 +0.7
Liberal Democrat Callum Leslie 1,150 2.3 -7.1
Majority 9,974 18.9 n/a 1
Turnout 52,892 69.6 +7.4

Sitting MP: Roger Mullin (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

22. Dunfermline West & Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Douglas Chapman 28,096 50.3 +39.6
Labour Thomas Docherty 17,744 31.7 -14.5
Conservative James Adam Reekie 6,623 11.9 +5.1
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton5 2,232 4.0 -31.1
Scottish Green Lewis Alan Campbell6 1,195 2.1 N/A
Majority 10,352 18.5
Turnout 55,890 71.6 +5.2

Sitting MP: Douglas Chapman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

23. Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP John McNally 34,831 57.7 +27.5
Labour Karen Whitefield 15,130 25.1 -20.6
Conservative Alison Harris 7,325 12.1 +0.9
UKIP David Coburn 1,829 3.0 +0.5
Liberal Democrats Galen Milne 1,225 2.0 -8.3
Majority 19,701 32.6
Turnout 60,340 72.4 +10.4

Sitting MP: John McNally (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_lbclogo

Iain interviews historian Phillipa Gregory

Phillipa Gregory talks about her new book

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 40. Scotland - Glasgow Surrounds

1 May 2017 at 09:58

Scotland – Glasgow Surrounds

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: SNP 9
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 8, LibDem 1

24. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3407 (8.3%)
Labour: 23549 (57.2%)
Lib Dem: 3924 (9.5%)
SNP: 9794 (23.8%)
Others: 476 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 13755 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stuart McDonald 29,572 59.9 +36.1
Labour Gregg McClymont 14,820 30.0 −27.2
Conservative Malcolm MacKay 3,891 7.9 −0.4
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 1,099 2.2 −7.3
Majority 14,752 29.9 n/a
Turnout 49,382 73.6 +9.3

Sitting MP: Stuart McDonald (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

25. West Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3242 (7.7%)
Labour: 25905 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 3434 (8.1%)
SNP: 8497 (20.1%)
UKIP: 683 (1.6%)
Others: 505 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 17408 (41.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Martin Docherty 30,198 59.0 +38.9
Labour Co-op Gemma Doyle 16,027 31.3 -30.0
Conservative Maurice Corry 3,597 7.0 -0.6
Liberal Democrats Aileen Morton 816 1.6 -6.5
Independent Claire Muir7 503 1.0 N/A
Majority 14,171 27.7 n/a 1
Turnout 51,141 73.9 +9.9

Sitting MP: Martin Docherty (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

26. Inverclyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (56%)
Lib Dem: 5007 (13.3%)
SNP: 6577 (17.5%)
UKIP: 433 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 14416 (38.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Ronnie Cowan 24,585 55.1 +37.6
Labour Iain McKenzie 13,522 30.3 -25.7
Conservative George Jabbour 4,446 10.0 -2.0
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,106 2.5 -10.8
UKIP Michael Burrows 715 1.6 +0.4
CISTA Craig Hamilton 233 0.5 n/a
Majority 11,063 24.8 n/a1
Turnout 44,607 75.2 +11.8

Sitting MP: Ronnie Cowan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

27. Paisley & Renfrewshire South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3979 (9.9%)
Labour: 23842 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 3812 (9.5%)
SNP: 7228 (18.1%)
Independent: 513 (1.3%)
Others: 624 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16614 (41.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Mhairi Black 23,548 50.9 +32.8
Labour Douglas Alexander 17,864 38.6 –21.0
Conservative Fraser Galloway 3,526 7.6 –2.3
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,010 2.2 –7.3
Scottish Socialist Sandra Webster 278 0.6 –0.3
Majority 5,684 12.3
Turnout 46,226 75.4 +9.1

Sitting MP: Mhairi Black (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

31. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6613 (13%)
Labour: 26241 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5052 (9.9%)
SNP: 11738 (23%)
Green: 1003 (2%)
Independent: 299 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 14503 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Lisa Cameron 33,678 55.6 +32.6
Labour Michael McCann 17,151 28.3 -23.2
Conservative Graham Simpson 7,129 11.8 -1.2
UKIP Rob Sale 1,221 2.0 N/A
Liberal Democrats Paul McGarry3 1,042 1.7 -8.2
Independent John Houston 318 0.5 -0.1
Majority 16,527 27.3
Turnout 60,539 72.8 +6.2

Sitting MP: Lisa Cameron (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

32. Lanark & Hamilton East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6981 (15%)
Labour: 23258 (50%)
Lib Dem: 5249 (11.3%)
SNP: 9780 (21%)
UKIP: 616 (1.3%)
Independent: 670 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 13478 (29%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angela Crawley 26,976 48.8 +27.8
Labour Jimmy Hood 16,876 30.5 -19.4
Conservative Alex Allison 8,772 15.9 +0.9
UKIP Donald Mackay 1,431 2.6 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Gregg Cullen 1,203 2.2 -9.1
Majority 10,100 18.3
Turnout 55,258 69.1 +6.8

Sitting MP: Angela Crawley (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

33. Airdrie & Shotts

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3133 (8.7%)
Labour: 20849 (58.2%)
Lib Dem: 2898 (8.1%)
SNP: 8441 (23.5%)
Independent: 528 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 12408 (34.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Neil Gray 23,887 53.9 +30.4
Labour Pamela Nash 15,108 34.1 −24.0
Conservative Eric Holford 3,389 7.7 −1.0
UKIP Matthew Williams 1,088 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat John Love 678 1.5 −6.6
Independent Deryck Beaumont 136 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,779 19.8
Turnout 44,286 66.3 +8.8

Sitting MP: Neil Gray (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

58. East Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7431 (15.5%)
Labour: 16367 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 18551 (38.7%)
SNP: 5054 (10.5%)
UKIP: 545 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2184 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP John Nicolson 22,093 40.3 +29.8
Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson 19,926 36.3 -2.4
Labour Amanjit Jhund 6,754 12.3 −21.8
Conservative Andrew Polson 4,727 8.6 −6.9
Scottish Green Ross Greer 804 1.5 N/A
UKIP Wilfred Arasaratnam 567 1.0 −0.1
Majority 2,167 4.0 n/a
Turnout 54,871 81.91 +6.7

Sitting MP: John Nicholson (SNP)
Prediction: LibDem gain

This is the top LibDem target in Scotland and with a little tactical voting from Labour and the Tories she might well pull it off. John Nicholson has been one of the more high profile SNP MPs but a high national profile doesn’t always go down well locally. One to watch on election night, but I suspect Jo Swinson might win.

59. Paisley & Renfrewshire North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6381 (14.6%)
Labour: 23613 (54%)
Lib Dem: 4597 (10.5%)
SNP: 8333 (19.1%)
Independent: 550 (1.3%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15280 (35%)

2015 Result:
SNP Gavin Newlands 25,601 50.7 +31.7
Labour Jim Sheridan 16,525 32.7 -21.3
Conservative John Anderson 6,183 12.3 -2.3
Liberal Democrat James Speirs 1,055 2.1 -8.4
Scottish Green Ryan Morrison 703 1.4 n/a
CISTA Andy Doyle 202 0.4 n/a
TUSC Jim Halfpenny2 193 0.4 n/a
Majority 9,076 18.0
Turnout 50,462 76.2 +7.6

Sitting MP: Gavin Newlands (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_0b2f4a8a-c3cb-45ae-993b-2c22ad20e86c

Iain Hates People Who Compare Trump to Hitler

And this is why

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 39: Herefordshire & Worcestershire

30 Apr 2017 at 23:54

HEREFORDSHIRE & WORCESTERSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June: Con 8

1. Hereford & South Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22366 (46.2%)
Labour: 3506 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 2481 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jesse Norman 24,844 52.6 Increase 6.3
UKIP Nigel Ely8 7,954 16.8 Increase 13.4
Labour Anna Coda 6,042 12.8 Increase 5.5
Liberal Democrat Lucy Hurds9 5,002 10.6 Decrease 30.5
Green Diana Toynbee 10 3,415 7.2 Increase 7.2
Majority 16,890 35.7 Increase 30.6
Turnout 47,257 66.8 Decrease 0.9

Leave Vote: 60.4%
Sitting MP: Jesse Norman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (51.8%)
Labour: 3373 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 14744 (31%)
Green: 1533 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2701 (5.7%)
Independent: 586 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9887 (20.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bill Wiggin 26,716 55.6 Increase 3.9
UKIP Jonathan Oakton 6,720 14.0 Increase 8.3
Liberal Democrat Jeanie Falconer 5,768 12.0 Decrease 19.0
Labour Sally Prentice 5,478 11.4 Increase 4.3
Green Daisy Blench 3,341 7.0 Increase 3.7
Majority 19,996 41.6 Increase 20.8
Turnout 42,545 72.0 Increase 0.5

Leave Vote: 58%

Sitting MP: Bill Wiggin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Bromsgrove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22558 (43.7%)
Labour: 11250 (21.8%)
Lib Dem: 10124 (19.6%)
BNP: 1923 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2950 (5.7%)
Independent: 336 (0.7%)
Others: 2489 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 11308 (21.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sajid Javid 28,133 53.8 Increase 10.2
Labour Tom Ebbutt 11,604 22.2 Increase 0.4
UKIP Stuart Cross 8,163 15.6 Increase 9.9
Liberal Democrat Bart Ricketts 2,616 5.0 Decrease 14.6
Green Giovanni Esposito 1,729 3.3 Increase 3.3
Majority 16,529 31.6 Increase 9.7
Turnout 52,245 71.2 Increase 0.6

Leave Vote: 55.4%

Sitting MP: Sajid Javid (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Mid Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27770 (54.5%)
Labour: 7613 (14.9%)
Lib Dem: 11906 (23.4%)
Green: 593 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3049 (6%)
MAJORITY: 15864 (31.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Huddleston 29,763 57.0 Increase 2.5
UKIP Richard Keel9 9,213 17.7 Increase 11.7
Labour Robin Lunn 7,548 14.5 Decrease 0.5
Liberal Democrat Margaret Rowley10 3,750 7.2 Decrease 16.2
Green Neil Franks11 1,933 3.7 Increase 2.5
Majority 20,532 39.3
Turnout 52,225 71.5 Increase 0.9

Leave Vote: 59.4%

Sitting MP: Nigel Huddleston (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Redditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19138 (43.5%)
Labour: 13317 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 7750 (17.6%)
BNP: 1394 (3.2%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
English Dem: 255 (0.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
Independent: 100 (0.2%)
Others: 73 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karen Lumley 20,771 47.1 +3.6
Labour Rebecca Blake 13,717 31.1 +0.9
UKIP Peter Jewell 7,133 16.2 +12.8
Liberal Democrat Hilary Myers 1,349 3.1 -14.5
Green Kevin White 960 2.2 +1.3
Independent Seth Colton 168 0.4 +0.4
Majority 7,054 16.0

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Karen Lumley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. West Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27213 (50.3%)
Labour: 3661 (6.8%)
Lib Dem: 20459 (37.8%)
Green: 641 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2119 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 6754 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Harriett Baldwin 30,342 56.1 Increase 5.8
UKIP Richard Chamings8 7,764 14.4 Increase 10.4
Labour Daniel Walton 7,244 13.4 Increase 6.6
Liberal Democrat Dennis Wharton 5,245 9.7 Decrease 28.1
Green Julian Roskams 3,505 6.5 Increase 5.3
Majority 22,578 41.7 Increase 29.0
Turnout 54,100 73.7

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Harriett Baldwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Worcester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19358 (39.5%)
Labour: 16376 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 9525 (19.4%)
BNP: 1219 (2.5%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 272 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 2982 (6.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robin Walker 22,534 45.3 +5.8
Labour Joy Squires9 16,888 34.0 +0.5
UKIP James Goad10 6,378 12.8 +10.1
Green Louis Stephen 2,024 4.1 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Federica Smith11 1,677 3.4 -16.1
TUSC Pete McNally12 153 0.3 +0.3
Independent Mark Shuker13 69 0.1 +0.1
Majority 5,646 11.4
Turnout 70.0

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Robin Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Wyre Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18793 (36.9%)
Labour: 7298 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 6040 (11.9%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.9%)
Health Concern: 16150 (31.7%)
MAJORITY: 2643 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Garnier 22,394 45.3 +8.4
Labour Matt Lamb 9,523 19.3 +4.9
UKIP Michael Wrench 7,967 16.1 +13.2
National Health Action Richard Taylor 7,221 14.6 -17.1
Liberal Democrat Andy Crick 1,228 2.5 -9.4
Green Natalie McVey 1,117 2.3 N/A
Majority 12,871 26.0
Turnout 49,440 63.8 -3.0

Leave Vote: 63.1%

Sitting MP: Mark Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_alogo

Kofi Klu & I Fall Out Over Slavery Reparations

Hey ho.

Listen now

General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 38. Warwickshire

30 Apr 2017 at 22:15

WARWICKSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6

1. Kenilworth & Southam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25945 (53.6%)
Labour: 6949 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 13393 (27.7%)
Green: 568 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1214 (2.5%)
Independent: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12552 (25.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Wright 28,474 58.4 +4.8
Labour Bally Singh 7,472 15.3 +1.0
UKIP Harry Cottam 5,467 11.2 +8.7
Liberal Democrat Richard Dickson 4,913 10.1 -17.6
Green Rob Ballantyne6 1,956 4.0 +2.8
Monster Raving Loony Nicholas Green 370 0.8 +0.8
Digital Democracy 7 Jon Foster-Smith 8 139 0.3 +0.3
Majority 21,002 43.0 +17.1
Turnout 48,791 74.8 -6.4

Leave Vote: 46.2%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Wright (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Warwickshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18993 (40.2%)
Labour: 18939 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.8%)
English Dem: 411 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 54 (0.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Tracey 20,042 42.3 +2.1
Labour Mike O’Brien 17,069 36.0 -4.0
UKIP William Cash5 8,256 17.4 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Alan Beddow 978 2.1 -9.8
Green Ian Bonner 894 1.9 N/A
TUSC Eileen Hunter 138 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,973 6.3 +6.2
Turnout 47,377 67.2 -0.2

Leave Vote: 67.8%

Sitting MP: Craog Tracey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Nuneaton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18536 (41.5%)
Labour: 16467 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 6846 (15.3%)
BNP: 2797 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 2069 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Marcus Jones 20,827 45.5 +4.0
Labour Vicky Fowler 15,945 34.9 -2.0
UKIP Alwyn Waine 15 6,582 14.4 N/A
Green Keith Kondakor 16 1,281 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Christina Jebb 17 816 1.8 -13.6
TUSC Paul Reilly 194 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Steve Paxton 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 4,882 10.7 +6.1
Turnout 45,749 67.2 +1.4

Leave Vote: 64.5%

Sitting MP: Marcus Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Rugby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20901 (44%)
Labour: 14901 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 9434 (19.9%)
BNP: 1375 (2.9%)
Green: 451 (1%)
UKIP: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 6000 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Pawsey 24,040 49.1 +5.0
Labour Claire Edwards 13,695 27.9 -3.5
UKIP Gordon Davies 6,855 14.0 +13.1
Liberal Democrat Ed Goncalves 2,776 5.8 -14.1
Green Terry White 1,415 2.9 +1.9
TUSC Peter McLaren 225 0.5 N/A
Majority 10,345 21.1 +8.5
Turnout 49,006 70.1 +1.2

Leave Vote: 58.6%

Sitting MP: Mark Pawsey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Stratford on Avon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26052 (51.5%)
Labour: 4809 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 14706 (29.1%)
BNP: 1097 (2.2%)
Green: 527 (1%)
UKIP: 1846 (3.7%)
English Dem: 473 (0.9%)
Independent: 1032 (2%)
MAJORITY: 11346 (22.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nadhim Zahawi 29,674 57.7 +6.1
UKIP Edward Fila 6,798 13.2 +9.6
Labour Jeff Kenner 6,677 13.0 +3.5
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Adams 6,182 12.0 −17.1
Green Dominic Giles 2,128 4.1 +3.1
Majority 22,876 44.5 +22.1
Turnout 51,459 72.6 -0.1

Leave Vote: 51%

Sitting MP: Nadhim Zahawi (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Warwick & Leamington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20876 (42.6%)
Labour: 17363 (35.4%)
Lib Dem: 8977 (18.3%)
Green: 693 (1.4%)
UKIP: 926 (1.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3513 (7.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris White 24,249 47.9 Increase 5.4
Labour Lynnette Kelly 17,643 34.9 Decrease 0.5
UKIP Alastair MacBrayne6 4,183 8.3 Increase 6.4
Liberal Democrat Haseeb Arif 2,512 5.0 Decrease 13.3
Green Azzees Minott 1,994 3.9 Increase 2.1
Majority 6,606 13.1 Increase 5.9
Turnout 50,581 70.7 Decrease 0.3

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Chris White (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share:

0 comments

Sign up via Facebook or Twitter to comment.

Small_margaret-beckett-01

LBC 97.3: Iain Dale talks to Margaret Beckett & John Rentoul

Discussion on Tony Blair's speech on Britain's need to remain at the heart of Europe.

Listen now