General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 12. Gloucestershire

25 Apr 2017 at 23:06

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 0
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, LibDem 1

1. Cheltenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21739 (41.2%)
Labour: 2703 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 26659 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1192 (2.3%)
Others: 493 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4920 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alex Chalk 11 24,790 46.1 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Martin Horwood 11 18,274 34.0 −16.5
Labour Paul Gilbert 12 3,902 7.3 +2.1
UKIP Christina Simmonds13 3,808 7.1 +4.8
Green Adam Van Coevorden 2,689 5.0 +5.0
Independent Richard Lupson-Darnell14 272 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,516 12.1
Turnout 53,735 69.5 +2.4

Leave Vote: 38.76%

Sitting MP: Alex Chalk (Con)
Prediction LibDem gain

This is one of those Tory seats which could easily fall to the LibDems. It has a high Remain vote and there’s little UKIP vote for the Tories to eat into. If the Greens don’t stand here it would also add impetus to the LibDems, whose former MP Martin Horwood is standing again. If there’s a Tory landslide they could just about hold onto this, but all things considered I’d say this is a decent bet for the LibDems.

2. Forest of Dean

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22853 (46.9%)
Labour: 11789 (24.2%)
Lib Dem: 10676 (21.9%)
Green: 923 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2522 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11064 (22.7%)

Conservative Mark Harper5 23,191 46.8 −0.1
Labour Steve Parry-Hearn5 12,204 24.6 +0.5
UKIP Steve Stanbury 8,792 17.8 +12.6
Green James Greenwood 2,703 5.5 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Christopher Coleman 2,630 5.3 −16.6
Majority 10,987 22.2 −0.5
Turnout 49,520 70.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 58.37%

Sitting MP: Mark Harper (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Gloucester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20267 (39.9%)
Labour: 17847 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9767 (19.2%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1808 (3.6%)
English Dem: 564 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2420 (4.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Graham 23,837 45.3 +5.4
Labour Sophy Gardner12 16,586 31.5 -3.6
UKIP Richard Ford 7,497 14.3 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Jeremy Hilton 2,828 5.4 -13.8
Green Jonathan Ingleby 1,485 2.8 +1.8
Monster Raving Loony George Ridgeon 277 0.4 +0.4
TUSC Sue Powell13 58 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,241 13.8 +9.0
Turnout 52,565 63.4 -0.6

Leave Vote: 56.14%

Sitting MP: Richard Graham (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

4. Stroud

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23679 (40.8%)
Labour: 22380 (38.6%)
Lib Dem: 8955 (15.4%)
Green: 1542 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.2%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1299 (2.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Neil Carmichael 27,813 45.7 +4.9
Labour Co-op David Drew 22,947 37.7 -0.9
UKIP Caroline Stephens11 4,848 8.0 +5.7
Green Sarah Lunnon 2,779 4.6 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Adrian Walker-Smith 2,086 3.4 -12.0
Independent Richard Wilson 246 0.4 +0.4
Free Public Transport David Michael 100 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,866 8.0
Turnout 60,819 75.5

Leave Vote: 48.63%

Sitting MP: Neil Carmichael (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Tewkesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25472 (47.2%)
Labour: 6253 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 19162 (35.5%)
Green: 525 (1%)
UKIP: 2230 (4.1%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6310 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Laurence Robertson 30,176 54.5 +7.3
Labour Ed Buxton 8,204 14.6 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Alistair Cameron 7,629 13.8 -21.7
UKIP Stuart Adair10 7,128 12.9 +8.7
Green Jemma Clarke11 2,207 4.0 +3.0
Majority 21,972 39.7 +28.0
Turnout 55,344 70.1 -0.3

Leave Vote: 52.38%

Sitting MP: Laurence Robertson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. The Cotswolds

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29075 (53%)
Labour: 5886 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 16211 (29.6%)
Green: 940 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2292 (4.2%)
Independent: 428 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12864 (23.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 32,045 56.5 +3.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Hodgkinson 6 10,568 18.6 −10.9
UKIP Chris Harlow 6,188 10.9 +6.7
Labour Manjinder Kang 5,240 9.2 −1.5
Green Penny Burgess 2,626 4.6 +2.9
Majority 21,477 37.9 +14.4
Turnout 56,667 72.4 +0.9

Leave Vote: 47.58%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 11. Suffolk

25 Apr 2017 at 22:17

SUFFOLK

Number of Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Conservative, 7
Prediction for 2017: Conservative 7

1. Bury St Edmunds
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27899 (47.5%)
Labour: 9776 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 15519 (26.4%)
Green: 2521 (4.3%)
UKIP: 3003 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12380 (21.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jo Churchill12 31,815 53.6 +6.1
Labour William Edwards 13 10,514 17.7 +1.1
UKIP John Howlett 8,739 14.7 +9.6
Green Helen Geake 14 4,692 7.9 +3.6
Liberal Democrat David Chappell 3,581 6.0 -20.4
Majority 21,301 35.9 +6.1
Turnout 59,341 69.0 -0.3

Leave Vote: 55.96%

Sitting MP: Jo Churchill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Central Suffolk & North Ipswich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27125 (50.8%)
Labour: 8636 (16.2%)
Lib Dem: 13339 (25%)
Green: 1452 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2361 (4.4%)
Independent: 389 (0.7%)
Others: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 13786 (25.8%)

Conservative Daniel Poulter 30,317 56.1 +5.3
Labour Jack Abbott 10,173 18.8 +2.6
UKIP Mark Cole 7,459 13.8 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Jon Neal 3,314 6.1 −18.8
Green Rhodri Griffiths 2,664 4.9 +2.2
English Democrat Tony Holyoak 162 0.3 N/A
Majority 20,144 37.2 +11.4
Turnout 54,089 68.7 −1.7

Leave Vote: 56.36%

Sitting MP: Dr Dan Poulter (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Ipswich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18371 (39.1%)
Labour: 16292 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 8556 (18.2%)
BNP: 1270 (2.7%)
Green: 775 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1365 (2.9%)
Christian: 149 (0.3%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 70 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2079 (4.4%)

Conservative Ben Gummer 21,794 44.8 +5.6
Labour David Ellesmere 18,051 37.1 +2.4
UKIP Maria Vigneau 5,703 11.7 +8.8
Green Barry Broom 1,736 3.6 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Chika Akinwale 1,400 2.9 −15.4
Majority 3,733 7.7 +3.3
Turnout 48,694 65.4 +5.5

Leave Vote: 57.52%

Sitting MP: Ben Gummer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Another of those bellweather seats that tends to swing with the political wind. If Labour is to get near winning an election it needs to win Ipswich. I see little prospect of that happening. Ben Gummer is a prominent remainer in a very Leave seat. Might that mean the UKIP vote will hold up better here? I don’t think that will be enough to prevent another Gummer victory, though.

4. South Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24550 (47.7%)
Labour: 7368 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 15861 (30.8%)
UKIP: 3637 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (16.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Cartlidge 27,546 53.1 +5.4
Labour Jane Basham 10,001 19.3 +5.0
UKIP Steven Whalley6 7,897 15.2 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Grace Weaver 4,044 7.8 −23.0
Green Robert Lindsay 2,253 4.3 N/A
Christian Peoples Stephen Todd7 166 0.3 N/A
Majority 17,545 33.8 16.9
Turnout 51,907 71.0 +0.1

Leave Vote: 58.14%

Sitting MP: James Cartlidge (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Suffolk Coastal

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25475 (46.4%)
Labour: 8812 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16347 (29.8%)
Green: 1103 (2%)
UKIP: 3156 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 9128 (16.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Therese Coffey 28,855 51.9 +5.5
Labour Russell Whiting 10,013 18.0 +2.0
UKIP Daryll Pitcher 8,655 15.6 +9.8
Liberal Democrat James Sandbach 4,777 8.6 −21.2
Green Rachel Smith-Lyte 3,294 5.9 +3.9
Majority 18,842 33.9 +17.3
Turnout 55,594 70.6 −0.6

Leave Vote: 56.52%

Sitting MP: Therese Coffey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Waveney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20571 (40.2%)
Labour: 19802 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6811 (13.3%)
Green: 1167 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.2%)
Independent: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 769 (1.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Aldous 22,104 42.3 +2.1
Labour Bob Blizzard 19,696 37.7 −1.0
UKIP Simon Tobin 7,580 14.5 +9.3
Green Graham Elliott 1,761 3.4 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen Gordon 1,055 2.0 −11.3
Majority 2,408 4.6
Turnout 52,196 65.1

Leave Vote: 66.37%

Sitting MP: Peter Aldous (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A narrow majority in both of the last elections for Peter Aldous. UKIP put on a shed load of votes last time, many of which ought to revert to the Conservatives this time. Difficult to see Labour winning here in the current circumstances. One of the highest Leave votes in the country.

7. West Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24312 (50.6%)
Labour: 7089 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11262 (23.4%)
BNP: 1428 (3%)
UKIP: 3085 (6.4%)
Independent: 540 (1.1%)
Others: 373 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13050 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matthew Hancock 25,684 52.2 +1.6
UKIP Julian Flood8 10,700 21.7 +15.3
Labour Michael Jefferys 8,604 17.5 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Elfreda Tealby-Watson9 2,465 5.0 −18.4
Green Niall Pettitt10 1,779 3.6 N/A
Majority 14,984 30.4 +3.3
Turnout 49,429 64.9 +0.3

Leave Vote: 65.27%

Sitting MP: Matthew Hancock (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Seeing as this has been a Conservative held seat since the 19th century, it’s another Conservative hold to be your mortgage on. However, it will be interesting to see how the high Leave vote affects the Remain supporting MP’s majority.

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 10. Wales - Dyfed

24 Apr 2017 at 21:38

DYFED

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, LibDem 1, PC 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8:

1. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8506 (22.4%)
Labour: 10065 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 4609 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 13546 (35.6%)
UKIP: 1285 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 3481 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Jonathan Edwards 15,140 38.4 +2.8
Labour Calum Higgins 9,541 24.2 −2.3
Conservative Matthew Paul 8,336 21.2 −1.2
UKIP Norma Woodward8 4,363 11.1 +7.7
Green Ben Rice9 1,091 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Sara Lloyd Williams10 928 2.4 −9.8
Majority 5,599 14.2 +5.0
Turnout 39,399 70.9 −1.7

Leave Vote: 52.98%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Edwards (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

2. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 4890 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.4%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.8%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3423 (8.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Hart 17,626 43.7 +2.6
Labour Delyth Evans 11,572 28.7 −4.0
UKIP John Atkinson8 4,698 11.6 +8.8
Plaid Cymru Dewi Williams 4,201 10.4 0.0
Green Gary Tapley 91011 1,290 3.2 n/a
Liberal Democrat Selwyn Runnett12 963 2.4 −9.7
Majority 6,054 15.0 +6.5
Turnout 40,350 69.8 −0.6

Leave Vote: 52.61%
Sitting MP: Simon Hart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Mark Williams 13,414 35.9 -14.2
Plaid Cymru Mike Parker 10,347 27.7 -0.6
Conservative Henrietta Hensher 4,123 11.0 -0.5
UKIP Gethin James 3,829 10.2 +7.7
Labour Huw Thomas 3,615 9.7 +3.9
Green Daniel Thompson 2,088 5.6 +3.8
Majority 3,067 8.2 -13.6
Turnout 37,416 69.0 +4.2

Leave Vote: 44.61%
Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

4. Llanelli

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5381 (14.4%)
Labour: 15916 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 3902 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4701 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nia Griffith13 15,948 41.3 −1.1
Plaid Cymru Vaughan Williams14 8,853 23.0 −7.0
UKIP Kenneth Rees 6,269 16.3 +13.5
Conservative Selaine Saxby15 5,534 14.3 0.0
Liberal Democrat Cen Phillips16 751 1.9 −8.5
Green Guy Smith 689 1.8 N/A
People First Siân Caiach17 407 1.1 N/A
TUSC Scott Jones 123 0.3 N/A
Majority 7,095 18.4 +5.9
Turnout 38,574 64.5 -2.8

Leave Vote: 56.43%
Sitting MP: Nia Griffith (Lab)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

Plaid are in a good second place and even though their vote went down in 2015 this is one they will hope to win this time. With Jeremy Corbyn’s help, they might just do that.

5. Preseli Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16944 (42.8%)
Labour: 12339 (31.2%)
Lib Dem: 5759 (14.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3654 (9.2%)
UKIP: 906 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 4605 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Crabb 16,383 40.4 −2.4
Labour Paul Miller 11,414 28.1 −3.0
UKIP Howard Lillyman 4,257 10.5 +8.2
Independent Chris Overton 3,729 9.2 +9.2
Plaid Cymru John Osmond 2,518 6.2 −3.0
Green Frances Bryant 1,452 3.6 N/A
Liberal Democrat Nick Tregoning 780 1.9 −12.6
The New Society of Worth Rodney Maile 23 0.1 n/a
Majority 4,969 12.3 +0.7
Turnout 40,556 70.7 +1.7

Sitting MP: Stephen Crabb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 9. Bedfordshire

24 Apr 2017 at 20:51

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1

BEDFORDSHIRE

1. Bedford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17546 (38.9%)
Labour: 16193 (35.9%)
Lib Dem: 8957 (19.9%)
BNP: 757 (1.7%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1136 (2.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1353 (3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Fuller 19,625 42.6 +3.7
Labour Patrick Hall 18,528 40.2 +4.3
UKIP Charlie Smith 4,434 9.6 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Mahmud Rogers 1,958 4.2 −15.6
Green Ben Foley 12 1,412 3.1 +2.2
Independent Faruk Choudhury 129 0.3 N/A
Majority 1,097 2.4 −0.6
Turnout 46,086 66.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 53.17%

Sitting MP: Richard Fuller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This seat was Labour during the Blair & Brown years and only narrowly went Tory in 2010. With a substantial LibDem vote to eat into, last time it should have gone Labour in 2015. There’s little reason to suggest it will this time.

2. Luton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13672 (31.8%)
Labour: 21192 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 4784 (11.1%)
BNP: 1316 (3.1%)
Green: 490 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 7520 (17.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kelvin Hopkins9 22,243 52.2 +2.9
Conservative Dean Russell10 12,739 29.9 −1.9
UKIP Allan White11 5,318 12.5 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Aroosa Ulzaman 1,299 3.1 −8.1
Green Sofiya Ahmed 972 2.3 +1.1
Majority 9,504 22.3 +4.8
Turnout 42,571 64.0 −1.5

Leave Vote: 56.29%

Sitting MP: Kelvin Hopkins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a safe Tory seat until boundary changes made it a safe Labour seat. Kelvin Hopkins’ majority increased in 2015 as he ate into the LibDem vote. I suspect many of those votes will return to the LibDems this time. The Tories may have hopes in this seat but Hopkins is popular and his personal vote may see him through.

3. Luton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12396 (29.4%)
Labour: 14725 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 9567 (22.7%)
BNP: 1299 (3.1%)
Green: 366 (0.9%)
UKIP: 975 (2.3%)
Independent: 1872 (4.4%)
Others: 1016 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2329 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gavin Shuker 18,660 44.2 +9.3
Conservative Katie Redmond 12,949 30.7 +1.3
UKIP Muhammad Rehman 5,129 12.1 +9.8
Liberal Democrat Ashuk Ahmed 3,183 7.5 −15.1
Green Simon Hall 1,237 2.9 +2.1
Independent Attiq Malik 900 2.1 N/A
Liberty GB Paul Weston 158 0.4 N/A
Majority 5,711 13.5 +8
Turnout 42,216 62.8 −2

Leave Vote: 53.07%
Sitting MP: Gavin Shuker (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

As the LibDems return home from Labour, and UKIP voters return to the Tories Gavin Shuker may be a casualty of the Corbyn era.

4. Mid Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28815 (52.5%)
Labour: 8108 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13663 (24.9%)
Green: 773 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2826 (5.1%)
English Dem: 712 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 15152 (27.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nadine Dorries 6 32,544 56.1 +3.6
Labour Charlynne Pullen 6 9,217 15.9 +1.1
UKIP Nigel Wickens7 8,966 15.4 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Linda Jack 8 4,193 7.2 -17.7
Green Gareth Ellis 9 2,462 4.2 +2.8
Independent Tim Ireland10 384 0.7 +0.7
Monster Raving Loony Ann Kelly11 294 0.5 +0.5
Majority 23,327 40.2 +12.6
Turnout 58,060 71.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 52.06%

Sitting MP: Nadine Dorries (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North East Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30989 (55.8%)
Labour: 8957 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 12047 (21.7%)
BNP: 1265 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2294 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 18942 (34.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alistair Burt 34,891 59.5 +3.7
Labour Saqhib Ali 7 9,247 15.8 −0.4
UKIP Adrianne Smyth8 8,579 14.6 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Peter Morris 9 3,418 5.8 −15.9
Green Mark Bowler 2,537 4.3 N/A
Majority 25,644 43.7 +9.6
Turnout 58,672 70.2

Leave Vote: 53.09%

Sitting MP: Alistair Burt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. South West Bedfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26815 (52.8%)
Labour: 9948 (19.6%)
Lib Dem: 10166 (20%)
BNP: 1703 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 16649 (32.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Selous 9 28,212 55.0 +2.2
Labour Daniel Scott 9 10,399 20.3 +0.7
UKIP John van Weenen 10 7,941 15.5 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Stephen Rutherford 11 2,646 5.2 −14.9
Green Emily Lawrence 12 2,106 4.1 N/A
Majority 17,813 34.7
Turnout 51,304 64.4

Leave Vote: 57.6%

Sitting MP: Andrew Selous (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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My 20 Pieces of Advice to First Time General Election Candidates

24 Apr 2017 at 20:37

This is a rehash of a blog I wrote at the beginning of the 2010 election campaign, having just re-read my blogposts from the 2005 election, when I was Conservative candidate in North Norfolk. The experience brought back lots of memories – not all of them bad! But it did make me think about the pitfalls of being a candidate and how to get through an election campaign intact. For what it’s worth, here’s my advice to first time candidates…

1. You can’t do everything yourself. Let others take the strain. You are the leader of the campaign. Act like it.
2. Keep your cool. There will be moments in the campaign when you want to scream your head off. Resist the temptation. Count to ten. Then count to twenty. Ignore the temptation to hit your agent when he/she calls you a “legal necessity”.
3. Your campaign workers are volunteers. They don’t have to turn out to help you. They do it because they want to. Motivate them. Treat them well. Make sure you stop for lunch and that they don’t do too much. It’s a long campaign. Don’t wear them out after the first week.
4. Make sure all your literature is proof read. Three times. And not by you.
5. If you have a campaign blog, never write a spontaneous blogpost. Always run it by someone else first. Be incredibly careful what you tweet. Imagine your name in bold print in the Daily Mirror. If you hesitate before pressing SEND, it probably means you shouldn’t.
6. Make sure you keep to your normal sleep patterns. You may think you are Superman/Superwoman, but you’re not. You need your sleep. Make sure you get it.
7. You don’t need to hold a long campaign meeting every morning. Three times a week is usually enough. Make sure that the only people who attend are those who really should. Restrict meetings to half an hour.
8. Posters do not gain extra votes. But they make your local party feel good and give your campaign the appearance of momentum. Do not put them up too early. And do not put them up all at once. And if they get ripped down, make sure your campaign team has a strategy for replacing them within 24 hours.

9. Personalise your ‘Sorry You Were Out Cards’. Include your ten campaign pledges on them. And include an apparently handwritten message and signature.
10. Do not drive anywhere yourself. Especially, do not drive your campaign vehicle. Appoint a PA who will drive you everywhere. Think of the bad publicity if you are involved in an accident, or even a broken down car or flat tyre. The last thing your campaign needs is for you to be involved in a public argument with another irate driver. If someone else is driving, you can walk away when another car is arranged for you.
11. Make sure you eat properly, and regularly. McCoys, Coke and Mars Bars do not a healthy diet make. Do not drink any alcohol during the day. Never buy anyone a drink. It’s against electoral law and counts as treating
12. If Party HQ offer you the chance of a visit from a politician even you have barely heard of, turn them down. Even if you have heard of them, consider turning them down. Visits from national politicians use up too many resources and rarely attract a single extra vote.
13. Don’t canvass before 10am or after 8.30pm. It looks desperate and annoys people. And be very careful about canvassing on Sundays. People don’t like it. Use Sundays to catch up on deliveries in areas with no deliverers.

14. Resist the temptation to strangle the next person who asks “How’s it going?” or “Are you going to win?”. They’re only being polite.
15. If you’re in a high profile marginal seat which the media find interesting, avoid spending half your day giving them interviews. Your only media focus is local. Ignore Michael Crick. He’s not there to help you.
16. Avoid the natural desire to believe what voters tell you on the doorstep. Most of them will tell you what you want to hear in order to get you off the doorstep. If they say “I’ll see how I feel on the day” you can safely put them down as a Liberal Democrat.
17. Your ‘Get Out The Vote’ operation is more important than anything else you do during the campaign. Satisfy yourself that your Agent and Campaign Manager have it in hand and they know what they are doing.
18. Ignore those who tell you not to appear at your count until it is well underway. It’s your moment. Relish it. Prepare your speech. If you lose unexpectedly, you will be remembered for how you react. Act graciously towards your opponents during the counting and in your speech.
19. If you lose, you will be tempted to blame someone. Your party leader. Your local party. Anyone but yourself. Don’t. Whatever your personal thoughts, no one likes a bad loser. Be dignified and take it on the chin. If you win, hubris may take over. It really wasn’t all down to you, you know. And make sure others know you know that.
20. Make sure you write a personal thank you letter – and I mean write, not type – to all those who helped on your campaign. Do it within a week of polling day. You really could not have done it without them.

Good luck, and try to enjoy it!

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 8. Northumberland

24 Apr 2017 at 11:11

NORTHUMBERLAND

Seats: 4
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 2

1. Berwick upon Tweed

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14116 (36.7%)
Labour: 5061 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 16806 (43.7%)
BNP: 1213 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 2690 (7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne-Marie Trevelyan 16,603 41.1 +4.4
Liberal Democrat Julie Pörksen12 11,689 28.9 -14.8
Labour Scott Dickinson 6,042 14.9 +1.8
UKIP Nigel Coghill-Marshall13 4,513 11.2 +7.9
Green Rachael Roberts 1,488 3.7 N/A
English Democrat Neil Humphrey 88 0.2 N/A
Majority 4,914 12.2
Turnout 40,423 69.6 +2.6

Leave vote: 59.04%

Sitting MP: Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a huge majority for the Tories here, and the LibDems will be hoping they can attract enough Labour Remain supporters to win, but they will know that the Clonservatives will undoubtedly eat into the UKIP vote. It may be tight but I expect a Tory hold here, mainly because it had such a high Leave vote.

2. Blyth Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6412 (16.6%)
Labour: 17156 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 10488 (27.2%)
BNP: 1699 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.3%)
English Dem: 327 (0.8%)
Independent: 819 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 6668 (17.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ronnie Campbell 17,813 46.3 +1.8
UKIP Barry Elliott 8,584 22.3 +18.0
Conservative Greg Munro 8,346 21.7 +5.1
Liberal Democrat Philip Latham6 2,265 5.9 -21.3
Green Dawn Furness7 1,453 3.8 +3.8
Majority 9,229 24.0 +6.3
Turnout 38,461 60.1 +0.01

Leave Vote: 63.87%

Sitting MP: Ronnie Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On the face of it a safe seat. UKIP came second here in 2015. If the bulk of their vote goes to the Tories Labour’s margin of victory may be very narrow indeed.

3. Hexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18795 (43.2%)
Labour: 8253 (19%)
Lib Dem: 13007 (29.9%)
BNP: 1205 (2.8%)
Independent: 1974 (4.5%)
Others: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5788 (13.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Guy Opperman 22,834 52.7 +9.5
Labour Liam Carr 10,803 24.9 +5.9
UKIP David Nicholson 4,302 9.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Jeff Reid7 2,961 6.8 -23.1
Green Lee Williscroft-Ferris 2,445 5.6 N/A
Majority 12,031 27.8 +9.5
Turnout 43,345 71.5 +0.7

Leave Vote: 48.88%

Sitting MP: Guy Opperman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Wansbeck

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6714 (17.5%)
Labour: 17548 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 10517 (27.5%)
BNP: 1418 (3.7%)
Green: 601 (1.6%)
UKIP: 974 (2.5%)
Christian: 142 (0.4%)
Independent: 359 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7031 (18.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Lavery 19,267 50.0 +4.2
Conservative Chris Galley 8,386 21.8 +4.2
UKIP Melanie Hurst 7,014 18.2 +15.7
Liberal Democrat Tom Hancock 2,407 6.2 -21.2
Green Christopher Hedley 1,454 3.8 +2.2
Majority 10,881 28.2 +9.8
Turnout 38,528 63.6 +2.9

Leave Vote: 59.43%

Sitting MP: Ian Lavery (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Another very high UKIP vote here last time. I expect the Labour majority will tumble.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 7: Central London

24 Apr 2017 at 09:29

LONDON CENTRAL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 8: Con 3, Lab 3

Cities of London & Westminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19264 (52.2%)
Labour: 8188 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 7574 (20.5%)
Green: 778 (2.1%)
UKIP: 664 (1.8%)
English Dem: 191 (0.5%)
Independent: 98 (0.3%)
Others: 174 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11076 (30%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Field 19,570 54.1 +1.9
Labour Nik Slingsby 9,899 27.4 +5.2
Liberal Democrat Belinda Brooks-Gordon 2,521 7.0 -13.5
Green Hugh Small 1,953 5.4 +3.4
UKIP Robert Stephenson 1,894 5.2 +3.4
CISTA Edouard-Henri Desforges 160 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Jill McLachlan 129 0.4 N/A
Class War Adam Clifford 59 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,671 26.7 -3.3
Turnout 36,185 59.3 +3.8

Leave Vote: 23.79%

Sitting MP: Mark Field (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Holborn & St Pancras

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11134 (20.4%)
Labour: 25198 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 15256 (27.9%)
BNP: 779 (1.4%)
Green: 1480 (2.7%)
UKIP: 587 (1.1%)
English Dem: 75 (0.1%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 44 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9942 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Keir Starmer 29,062 52.9 +6.8
Conservative Will Blair 12,014 21.9 +1.5
Green Natalie Bennett 7,013 12.8 +10.1
Liberal Democrat Jill Fraser 3,555 6.5 −21.4
UKIP Maxine Spencer 2,740 5.0 +3.9
CISTA Shane O’Donnell 252 0.5 N/A
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson 173 0.3 N/A
Socialist Equality David O’Sullivan 108 0.2 N/A
Majority 17,048 31.0 +13.1
Turnout 54,917 63.3 +0.4

Leave Vote: 25.92%
Sitting MP: Sir Keir Starmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Islington South & Finsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8449 (19.4%)
Labour: 18407 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 14838 (34.1%)
Green: 710 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (1.6%)
English Dem: 301 (0.7%)
Others: 149 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3569 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emily Thornberry 22,547 50.9 +8.7
Conservative Mark Lim 9,839 22.2 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Terry Stacy 4,829 10.9 −23.2
UKIP Pete Muswell 3,375 7.6 +6.0
Green Charlie Kiss 3,371 7.6 +6.0
CISTA Jay Kirton 309 0.7 N/A
Majority 12,708 28.7 +20.5
Turnout 44,270 65.0 +0.6

Leave Vote: 29.8%

Sitting MP: Emily Thornbury (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Kensington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17595 (50.1%)
Labour: 8979 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 6872 (19.6%)
Green: 753 (2.1%)
UKIP: 754 (2.1%)
Others: 197 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8616 (24.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Borwick9 18,199 52.3 +2.2
Labour Rod Abouharb 10,838 31.1 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Robin McGhee 1,962 5.6 −13.9
Green Robina Rose 1,765 5.1 +2.9
UKIP Jack Bovill10 1,557 4.5 +2.3
CISTA Tony Auguste 211 0.6 +0.6
Animal Welfare Andrew Knight 158 0.5 +0.5
Alliance for Green Socialism Toby Abse 115 0.3 −0.2
New Independent Centralists Roland Courtenay 23 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,361 21.1 −3.4
Turnout 34,828 57.0 +3.7

Sitting MP: Victoria Borwick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Poplar & Limehouse

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12649 (27.1%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Lib Dem: 5209 (11.2%)
Green: 449 (1%)
UKIP: 565 (1.2%)
Respect: 8160 (17.5%)
English Dem: 470 (1%)
Independent: 293 (0.6%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6030 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Fitzpatrick11 29,886 58.5 +18.6
Conservative Chris Wilford11 12,962 25.4 -1.7
UKIP Nicholas McQueen11 3,128 6.1 +4.9
Green Maureen Childs11 2,463 4.8 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Elaine Bagshaw12 2,149 4.2 -6.9
TUSC Hugo Pierre11 367 0.7 +0.7
Red Flag Anti-Corruption Rene Claudel Mugenzi11 89 0.2 +0.2
Majority 16,924 33.1 +20.2
Turnout 51,044 62.2 -0.1

Leave Vote: 34.07%

Sitting MP: Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Westminster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15251 (38.5%)
Labour: 17377 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 5513 (13.9%)
BNP: 334 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.2%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
English Dem: 99 (0.3%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 101 (0.3%)
Others: 32 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2126 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Karen Buck Labour 18,504 46.8 +2.9
Lindsey Hall Conservative 16,527 41.8 +3.3
Nigel Sussman UKIP 1,489 3.8 +3.0
Kirsty Allan Liberal Democrat 1,457 3.7 –10.2
Jennifer Nadel Green 1,322 3.3 +2.1
Gabriela Fajardo Christian 152 0.4 +0.2
Charles Ward Independent 63 0.2
Majority: 2,126 (5.4%)
Swing: 0.6% from Lab to Con

Leave Vote: 30.03%
Sitting MP: Karen Buck (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Last time I predicted the Labour majority should increase by a couple of thousand at the very least. It didn’t. It remained static. If the Labour vote dribbles to the LibDems and the Tories can pick up half the UKIP vote this could be a very tight race indeed, and the Conservatives will be putting a lot of effort into this seat. They ought to take it.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 6: Scotland - Borders & Ayrshire

23 Apr 2017 at 21:54

Scotland – Borders & Ayrshire

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6, Con 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 4, Con 3

1. North Ayshire & Arran

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7212 (15.6%)
Labour: 21860 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (25.9%)
Others: 449 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9895 (21.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Patricia Gibson 28,641 53.2 +27.2
Labour Katy Clark 15,068 28.0 -19.4
Conservative Jamie Greene 7,968 14.8 -0.8
UKIP Sharon McGonigal5 1,296 2.4 n/a
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 896 1.7 -8.4
Majority 13,573 25.2
Turnout 53,869 71.1 +9.6

Sitting MP: Patricia Gibson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

2. Central Ayrshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8943 (20.4%)
Labour: 20950 (47.7%)
Lib Dem: 5236 (11.9%)
SNP: 8364 (19%)
Others: 422 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12007 (27.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Philippa Whitford 26,999 53.2 +34.1
Labour Brian Donohoe 13,410 26.4 −21.3
Conservative Marc Hope7 8,803 17.3 −3.0
Liberal Democrat Gordon Bain8 917 1.8 -10.1
Scottish Green Veronika Tudhope9 645 1.3 N/A
Majority 13,589 26.8 n/a
Turnout 50,774 72.5 +8.3

Sitting MP: Philippa Whitford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

3. Kilmarnock & Loudoun

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6592 (14.2%)
Labour: 24460 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 3419 (7.3%)
SNP: 12082 (26%)
MAJORITY: 12378 (26.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alan Brown 30,000 55.7 +29.7
Labour Co-op Cathy Jamieson5 16,362 30.4 −22.1
Conservative Brian Whittle6 6,752 12.5 −1.7
Liberal Democrat Rodney Ackland7 789 1.5 −5.8
Majority 13,638 25.3
Turnout 53,903 71.6 +8.8

Sitting MP: Alan Brown (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

4. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16555 (33.8%)
Labour: 5003 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 22230 (45.4%)
SNP: 4497 (9.2%)
UKIP: 595 (1.2%)
Others: 134 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5675 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Calum Kerr6 20,145 36.6 +27.4
Conservative John Lamont7 19,817 36.0 +2.2
Liberal Democrats Michael Moore7 10,294 18.7 −26.7
Labour Kenryck Jones8 2,700 4.9 −5.3
UKIP Peter Neilson8 1,316 2.4 +1.2
Scottish Green Pauline Stewart9 631 1.1 N/A
Independent Jesse Rae8 135 0.2 N/A
Majority 328 0.6 n/a
Turnout 55,038 74.2 +7.8

Sitting MP: Calum Kerr (SNP)
Prediction: *Conservative
gain

If the Conservatives don’t win this seat they are unlikely to make many gains in Scotland. They may take a good proportion of the UKIP vote, which could seem them home on its own.

5. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17457 (38%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 9080 (19.8%)
SNP: 4945 (10.8%)
Green: 510 (1.1%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 4194 (9.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mundell 20,759 39.8 +1.8
SNP Emma Harper 19,961 38.3 +27.5
Labour Archie Dryburgh 7,711 14.8 -14.1
UKIP Kevin Newton 1,472 2.8 +1.4
Liberal Democrats Amanda Kubie 1,392 2.7 -17.1
Scottish Green Jody Jamieson 839 1.6 +0.5
Majority 798 1.5 -7.6
Turnout 52,134 76.1 +7.2

Sitting MP: David Mundell (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative
hold

David Mundell managed to hold off the SNP last time, but only just. The SNP will move heaven and earth to oust him in June, but much will depend where the Labour vote goes. This one really is on a knife-edge, but a combination of Mundell’s personal vote and Ruth Davidson’s popularity ought to see him home. But I wouldn’t bet my house on it.

6. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11721 (25.5%)
Labour: 21632 (47.1%)
Lib Dem: 4264 (9.3%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJORITY: 9911 (21.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Corri Wilson 25,492 48.8 +30.8
Labour Sandra Osborne 14,227 27.3 −19.9
Conservative Lee Lyons 10,355 19.8 −5.7
UKIP Joseph Adam-Smith4 1,280 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 855 1.6 −7.7
Majority 11,265 21.6 N/A
Turnout 52,209 71.5 +8.9

Sitting MP: Corri Wilson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

The SNP MP will be happy to have a split opposition. It wasn’t that long ago that this was a Tory seat and this should be a long term target for them. But it’s too early this time.

7. Dumfries & Galloway

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16501 (31.6%)
Labour: 23950 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 4608 (8.8%)
SNP: 6419 (12.3%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 7449 (14.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Richard Arkless 23,440 41.4 +29.1
Conservative Finlay Carson 16,926 29.9 -1.7
Labour Russell Brown 13,982 24.7 -21.2
UKIP Geoffrey Siddall 1,301 2.3 +1.0
Liberal Democrats Andrew Metcalf 953 1.7 -7.1
Majority 6,514 11.5 n/a
Turnout 56,602 75.2 +5.2

Sitting MP: Richard Arkless (SNP)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Labour’s Russell Brown was beaten into third place in 2015 and I don’t expect Labour to do better this time. Having been a Tory constituency, they will do their damndest to win this back from the SNP. I’m going to take a punt and predict that they will achieve this aim on June 8th. By no means a dead cert, though.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 5: Wales - Gwynedd & Powys

23 Apr 2017 at 21:05

Gwynedd

Seats: 3
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Plaid Cymru 3

1. Arfon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4416 (16.9%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Lib Dem: 3666 (14.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (36%)
UKIP: 685 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 1455 (5.6%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Hywel Williams 11,790 43.9 +7.9
Labour Alun Pugh 8,122 30.3 -0.1
Conservative Anwen Barry 8 3,521 13.1 −3.8
UKIP Simon Wall 2,277 8.5 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Mohammed Shultan 718 2.7 -11.4
Socialist Labour Kathrine Jones 409 1.5 n/a
Majority 3,668 13.7 +8.1

Leave vote 43%

Sitting MP: Hywel Williams (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

2. Dwyfor Meironnydd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6447 (22.3%)
Labour: 4021 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 3538 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 12814 (44.3%)
UKIP: 776 (2.7%)
Independent: 1310 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 6367 (22%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Liz Saville-Roberts 11,811 40.9 −3.5
Conservative Neil Fairlamb 6,550 22.7 +0.4
Labour Mary Clarke 3,904 13.5 −0.4
UKIP Christopher Gillibrand5 3,126 10.8 +8.1
Independent Louise Hughes 1,388 4.8 +0.3
Liberal Democrat Steven Churchman 1,153 4.0 −8.3
Green Marc Fothergill 981 3.4 n/a
Majority 5,261 18.2 −3.8
Turnout 28,913 65.1 +1.4

Leave vote 55.7%

Sitting MP: Liz Saville-Roberts (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

The Plaid result dropped here last time, presumably because the sitting MR Elfin Llwyd had a large personal vote. If the Tories can pick up votes from UKIP and Labour this could become a highly marginal seat, especially given its high Leave vote in the referendum.

3. Ynys Mon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7744 (22.5%)
Labour: 11490 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 2592 (7.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.2%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.5%)
Christian: 163 (0.5%)
Independent: 2225 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 2461 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Albert Owen 10,871 31.1 −2.2
Plaid Cymru John Rowlands 10,642 30.5 +4.3
Conservative Michelle Willis 7,393 21.2 −1.3
UKIP Nathan Gill 5,121 14.7 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Mark Rosenthal8 751 2.2 −5.4
Socialist Labour Liz Screen 148 0.4 N/A
Majority 229 0.7 −6.4
Turnout 34,926 69.9 +1.1

Leave vote: 52.97%

Sitting MP: Albert Owen (Lab)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

This seat has been held by the Tories, Labour and Plaid in the last thirty years. In 1992 and 1997 it went Plaid but since then the Labour majority has been increasing. This came to a shattering stop in 2015 when Albert Owen only held the seat by 228 votes. In my opinion he will not hold onto his seat and it will either go to Plaid or to the Tories. If the Tories can take 3,000 votes from UKIP and eat into the Labour vote, it’s very possible they can take the seat. However, I’m calling it for Plaid at the moment.

Powys

Seats: 2
Current Political Makeup: Con 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2

1. Brecon & Radnorshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Davies 16,453 41.1 +4.5
Liberal Democrat Roger Williams 11,351 28.3 −17.8
Labour Matthew Dorrance 5,904 14.7 +4.2
UKIP Darran Thomas 10 3,338 8.3 +6.1
Plaid Cymru Freddy Greaves 1,767 4.4 +1.9
Green Chris Carmichael 1,261 3.1 +2.3
Majority 5,102 12.7
Turnout 40,074 73.8 +1

Leave vote: 50.36%

Sitting MP: Christopher Davies
Prediction: Conservative hold

The UKIP vote defecting to the Conservatives should guarantee this remains a Tory seat.

2. Montgomeryshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13976 (41.3%)
Labour: 2407 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 12792 (37.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.3%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.3%)
Independent: 324 (1%)
Others: 384 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1184 (3.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Glyn Davies 15,204 45.0 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds9 9,879 29.3 −8.6
UKIP Des Parkinson10 3,769 11.2 +7.8
Labour Martyn Singleton11 1,900 5.6 −1.5
Plaid Cymru Ann Griffith12 1,745 5.2 −3.1
Green Richard Chaloner 1,260 3.7 N/A
Majority 5,325 15.8 +12.3
Turnout 33,757 69.3 −0.1

Leave vote: 54.83%
Sitting MP: Glyn Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Glyn Davies won this seat in part because Lembit Opik outstayed his welcome. He’s proved to be quite popular and although the LibDems will they can retake it, they failed to in 2015 and I doubt whether they can pull it off again, especially when the Leave vote was so high here.

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General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 4. Somerset

22 Apr 2017 at 23:51

SOMERSET

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5

1. Bridgwater & Somerset West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24675 (45.3%)
Labour: 9332 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 15426 (28.3%)
BNP: 1282 (2.4%)
Green: 859 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.8%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 9249 (17%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ian Liddell-Grainger 25,020 46.0 +0.7
UKIP Stephen Fitzgerald 10,437 19.2 +14.4
Labour Michael Lerry 9,589 17.6 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Theo Butt Philip7 6,765 12.4 -15.9
Green Julie Harvey-Smith 2,636 4.8 +3.3
Majority 14,583 26.8 +9.8
Turnout 54,447 67.6 -3.6

Sitting MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Somerton & Frome

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26976 (44.5%)
Labour: 2675 (4.4%)
Lib Dem: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.2%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1817 (3%)

Conservative David Warburton 31,960 53.0 +8.5
Liberal Democrat David Rendel 11,692 19.4 −28.1
UKIP Alan Dimmick8 6,439 10.7 +7.5
Green Theo Simon 5,434 9.0 +9.0
Labour David Oakensen 4,419 7.3 +2.9
Independent Ian Angell 365 0.6 +0.6
Majority 20,268 33.6
Turnout 60,309 72.2 −2.1

Sitting MP: David Warburton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

An astonishing turaround in 2015 when the Conservatives turned a LibDem majority of 1800 into a Tory majority of more than 20,000. I can’t see any possibility of the LibDems reversing that result.

3. Taunton Deane

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24538 (42.2%)
Labour: 2967 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 28531 (49.1%)
UKIP: 2114 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 3993 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rebecca Pow 27,849 48.1 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Rachel Gilmour 12,358 21.3 -27.7
UKIP Laura Bailhache 6,921 12.0 +8.3
Labour Neil Guild 5,347 9.2 +4.1
Green Clive Martin 2,630 4.5 +4.5
Independent Mike Rigby 2,568 4.4 +4.4
TUSC Stephen German 118 0.2 +0.2
Independent Bruce Gauld 96 0.2 +0.2
Majority 15,491 26.8 +19.9
Turnout 57,887 70.7 +0.2
Sitting MP: Rebecca Pow (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Again, a Tory majority which I find difficult to see how it can be reversed. Jeremy Browne’s old seat.

4. Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23760 (42.5%)
Labour: 4198 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 24560 (44%)
BNP: 1004 (1.8%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1711 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 800 (1.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Heappey 26,247 46.1 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Tessa Munt 18,662 32.8 −11.2
UKIP Helen Hims10 5,644 9.9 +6.9
Labour Chris Inchley 3,780 6.6 −0.9
Green Jon Cousins 2,331 4.1 +3.0
Independent Paul Arnold 83 0.1 +0.1
Birthday Dave Dobbs 81 0.1 +0.1
Independent Gypsy Watkins11 76 0.1 + 0.1
Majority 7,585 13.3
Turnout 56,904 71.7

Sitting MP: James Heapey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If the LibDems are to make any gains in Somerset, the second most likely one is Wells. Having said that James Heappy will expect to eat into the Tory vote. Tessa Munt is standing again and she is not to be underestimated. She’s a good campaigner. However, I don’t see an upset here.

5. Yeovil

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18807 (32.9%)
Labour: 2991 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 31843 (55.7%)
BNP: 1162 (2%)
UKIP: 2357 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 13036 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Marcus Fysh 24,158 42.5 +9.6
Liberal Democrat David Laws 18,865 33.1 −22.6
UKIP Simon Smedley9 7,646 13.4 +9.3
Labour Sheena King 4,053 7.1 +1.9
Green Emily McIvor 2,191 3.8 n/a
Majority 5,293 9.3
Turnout 56,933 69.1

Sitting MP: Marcus Fysh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative hold

David Laws had a 13,000 majority. He’s not restanding having lost a 13,000 majority in 2015. As in Taunton Deane there’s a UKIP vote to eat into here, but conversely there’s also more of a Labour vote for the LibDems to attract here. I still believe this will be a Tory hold. UPDATE 24/4 The resignation of LibDem candidate Daisy Benson is a big blow to LibDem hopes here. She has been energetic but says she cannot stand because she’s in the middle of buying a house. Odd.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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