Over the next two weeks I will be trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to the North West, where 8 seats are up for grabs. The constituency corresponds to the North West England region of the United Kingdom, comprising the ceremonial counties of Cheshire, Cumbria, Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Merseyside. Following the passing of the European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999, the North West of England formed one constituency from which candidates are elected using the d’Hondt formula. In the election preceding this Act, MEPs were elected from first-past-the-post constituencies. These were Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Wirral, Cumbria and Lancashire North, Greater Manchester Central, Greater Manchester East, Greater Manchester West, Lancashire Central, Lancashire South, Merseyside East and Wigan, Merseyside West, and parts of Staffordshire West and Congleton.

2009

Con 3
Lab 2
UKIP 1
LibDem 1
BNP 1

In 2004 the result was Con 3, UKIP 1, LibDem 2, Labour 3. In 1999 it was Con 5, Lab 4, LibDem 1 (the constituency had 10 members in 1999 and 9 in 2004).

My prediction for this year is this…

2014

Con 2
Lab 3
UKIP 3

Like the East Midlands is a very difficult constituency to call. However, one thing is for sure, the BNP’s Nick Griffin will be out of the European Parliament. It’s highly likely that the controversial LibDem MEP Chris Davies will be out too. If this happens it is likely that UKIP will gain at least one seat, if not two. Labour is likely to gain at least one too, with the Conservatives dropping one. The Greens shouldn’t be totally ruled out, either. Last time they were only 0.3% behind the BNP.

Predicted Winning Candidates

Conservative Party – Jacqueline Foster, Sajid Karim
UKIP – Paul Nuttal, Louise Bours, Steven Woolfe
Labour – Theresa Griffin, Afzal Khan

OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

East Anglia
South East
London
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands