General Election Predictions

General Election Predictions 29: London North West

4 Jan 2015 at 13:00

Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

LONDON NORTH WEST

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 3, LibDem 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged

Brent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5067 (11.2%)
Labour: 18681 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%)
Green: 668 (1.5%)
Respect: 230 (0.5%)
Christian: 488 (1.1%)
Independent: 163 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1345 (3%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Teather (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this was a surefire Labour gain, but the Labour candidate (and former MP) Dawn Butler carries a lot of baggage. It won’t be heavy enough to deny her victory though, no matter how much local LibDems tell me they’re still in the game.

Brent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16486 (31.5%)
Labour: 24514 (46.9%)
Lib Dem: 8879 (17%)
Green: 725 (1.4%)
UKIP: 380 (0.7%)
English Dem: 247 (0.5%)
Independent: 734 (1.4%)
Others: 333 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8028 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Barry Gardiner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

Chipping Barnet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24700 (48.8%)
Labour: 12773 (25.2%)
Lib Dem: 10202 (20.2%)
Green: 1021 (2%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.8%)
Independent: 470 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 11927 (23.6%)

Sitting MP: Theresa Villiers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

Finchley & Golders Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21688 (46%)
Labour: 15879 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 8036 (17%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 817 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5809 (12.3%)

Sitting MP: Mike Freer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour seat during the Blair years, Finchley returned to its Tory roots in 2010. Mike Freer has a reputation as a good constituency MP and demographic changes will help him retain the seat, albeit with a reduced majority. *UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll shows Labour just ahead here, which will give the Labour campaign some encouragement, but I would still be surprised to see them win.

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Glenda Jackson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Updated Prediction: Labour hold

Glenda Jackson is standing down. Her successor candidate, Tulip Siddiq, faces a doughty campaigner in the Tory Simon Marcus but this seat will be determined by whoever wins the most former LibDem voters to their side. UPDATE 11/1/15: I’ve had a lot of new info on this seat and have changed it to a Tory gain. UPDATE 17/3/15 The LibDem support seems to be going to Labour. The Ashcroft poll has them ahead 47-30. So a double change of mind here, I’m afraid!

Harrow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21435 (44.7%)
Labour: 18032 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 6850 (14.3%)
Green: 793 (1.7%)
UKIP: 896 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3403 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Bob Blackman (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I’d say this is a probable Labour gain, rather than a definite Labour gain. This is Tony McNulty’s old seat. Had he been refighting it, Labour’s chances would have been far higher. UPDATE 11/1/15: The Labour candidate Uma Kumaran, according to local media, is struggling to get much in the way of campaigning support from her local party and councillors. Also, the Ashcroft poll for this constituency puts the Conservatives ahead by three points. I will continue to watch this one. UPDATE: A new Ashcroft poll puts Labour ahead.

Harrow West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16968 (36.8%)
Labour: 20111 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 7458 (16.2%)
Green: 625 (1.4%)
UKIP: 954 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3143 (6.8%)

Sitting MP: Gareth Thomas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat by any means but it’s unlikely Gareth Thomas will come a cropper.

Hendon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19635 (42.3%)
Labour: 19529 (42.1%)
Lib Dem: 5734 (12.4%)
Green: 518 (1.1%)
UKIP: 958 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 106 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Matthew Offord
Prediction: Labour gain

If Labour don’t win this seat they must as well give up all hope.

Hornsey & Wood Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9174 (16.7%)
Labour: 18720 (34%)
Lib Dem: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.3%)
Independent: 201 (0.4%)
Others: 91 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6875 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Lynne Featherstone (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

Labour has a massive majority to overcome here, but they are pouring huge resources into this seat to win it back. Lynne Featherstone is a doughty campaigner and won’t be easy to shift, but if she is beaten it will be because of the collapse in LibDem support nationally.

Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28866 (57.5%)
Labour: 9806 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 8345 (16.6%)
Green: 740 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1351 (2.7%)
Christian: 198 (0.4%)
Others: 899 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 19060 (38%)

Sitting MP: Nick Hurd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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