Back in January and early February I carried out seat by seat predictions in all 650 parliamentary constituencies. I promised to revisit these predictions in March and late April. I am going to start that process now by looking at Scotland. Back in February I predicted Labour 33, SNP 18, LibDems 5, Conservatives 3. Since then polls have shown a consistent lead for the SNP of around 42-21, with the Conservatives on around 15%. When I first did these predictions I found it more or less impossible to get the SNP above 18 seats. I found it very difficult to believe they could overturn Labour majorties of 15,000 or more. But when you study the polls in detail, and especially the Lord Ashcroft individual constituency polls it is clear that a major shift is happening and that Labour support is collapsing to the SNP. Therefore it is natural to want to reappraise each constituency in detail, and see where we end up. We should bear in mind that the Ashcroft polls only name parties and not candidates, so it is reasonable to assume that in some constituencies personal votes and name recognition will play a role. This is the Liberal Democrat hope. It may save one or two of their MPs but not many. I’d suggest that Charles Kennedy may be one which this phenomenon applies to, but I don’t think it will be enough to save Danny Alexander’s political skin. If Sir Malcolm Bruce and Sir Ming Campbell were standing again it may have applied to them. But they’re not and I doubt whether their succesors will be able to prevail on their coattails.
One other thing to mention from the Ashcroft polls is that the SNP does disproportionately well among younger people and far less well among older voters, but it is they who are more likely to turn out. However, if turnout is high that will help the SNP as they will have mobilised their vote. Indeed, they now have the manpower to do just that with their rising membership. In Jo Swinson’s seat I am told they have 1,000 new members. If they can be mobilised to get out the SNP vote on election day that will make a tremendous difference.
The detailed seat breakdown is listed below but this is how I now predict the parties will end up on May 7th in Scotland…
SNP 42
Labour 11
LibDem 3
Conservative 3
My overall prediction shows that the Conservatives and Labour are more or less neck and neck…
Conservative 280
Labour 277
LibDem 22
UKIP 5
SNP 42
Plaid Cymru 3
DUP 9
Respect 1
Green 1
Sinn Fein 5
SDLP 3
Others 2
This means that for Labour to form a coalition, it would need more than the SNP’s 42 MPs to do so. It would need the SNP plus the LibDems and/or the DUP. For the Conservatives it is difficult to see how they could form a coalition at all, assuming the LibDems fare as badly as this prediction suggests. Combined they would still be only on 302.
Over the next few days I am going to revisit my Welsh and English predictions, but I do not anticipate any meaningful change in the two main party totals. So my overall prediction is that there will be a minority government and quite possibly a second general election this year.
Scotland – North & Islands
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: LibDem 4, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: LibDem 4, SNP 2
Revised Prediction after May 7: LibDem 2, SNP 4
1. Orkney & Shetland
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)
Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
If the LibDems were reduced to two seats, this would be one of the two. A real LibDem stronghold.
2. Na h-Eileanan an lar
2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)
Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Smallest constituency in the country. Was a Labour seat until 2005.
3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)
Sitting MP: John Thurso (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Both Labour and the SNP think they can win this seat. Highland voters tend to give an incumbent a bigger personal vote than elsewhere and John Thurso is a very popular MP. If anyone can hold a LibDem seat on the Scottish mainland he can. UPDATE: But all the polls point to him now losing.
4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)
Sitting MP: Charles Kennedy (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Charles Kennedy surely has to be safe here. The Ashcroft poll puts doubt in my mind, but I think the Kennedy name will see him through.
5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)
Sitting MP: Danny Alexander (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
This seat has unsurprisingly received a lot of Treasury ‘pork’ and the LibDems are putting huge financial resources into it. However, the SNP think it is theirs for the taking and have selected the local council leader Drew Hendry to fight it. Why? They got 51% of the vote in the Holyrood election with the LibDems only scoring 12%. An ICM poll also had the LibDems down 25% and them coming in third place. If this really happened it would evidence of a complete meltdown for the LibDems in Scotland. However the poll size was only 309 so I don’t set much store by that. UPDATE: Everything now points to Danny Alexander being in real trouble here. There’s a lot of pork barrel politics going on in this seat, but it now looks doubtful that anything can save Danny unless the opposition splits three ways as it did in 2010.
6. Moray
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)
Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
No problems for the Westminster leader (for now!) of the SNP.
Scotland – North East
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 2, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 1, SNP 4
Revised Prediction: Con 1, Lab 1, SNP 4
7. Banff & Buchan
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)
Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
An easy win for the SNP here.
8. Gordon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Bruce (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain
Sir Malcolm Bruce is standing down. He has benefited from a split opposition in the past but the SNP have been making headway here, and few observers think the LibDems will hold off their challenge. The LibDems’ best strategy is to court tactical votes from Labour and the Tories to keep out Alex Salmond, assuming he does decide to stand here. According to THIS article, that’s just what they are trying.
9. Aberdeen North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)
Sitting MP: Frank Doran (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
A big majority, but the popular Frank Doran is standing down and the SNP have high hopes of taking this seat. They have never done especially well in Aberdeen, but that could change in May. One to watch.
10. Aberdeen South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)
Sitting MP: Dame Anne Begg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This used to be a Tory seat and they still retain a substantial vote. However, with the probably collapse of the LibDem vote, Labour’s majority should increase here.
11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)
Sitting MP: Sir Robert Smith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
This may well turn into a three way marginal, with the Tories and the SNP trying to oust Sir Robert Smith. The LibDem majority was halved last time, and it’s very possible to see how rises in the Labour and SNP votes could see this seat return to the Conservative fold. But if the SNP do as the current polls suggest they will, don’t rule out an astonishing SNP gain here. UPDATE: A LibDem poll here by Survation (naming the candidates) shows the LibDems ahead on 30% with the Tories on 26% and the SNP on 25%. The Ashcroft poll showed a massive lead for the SNP, but didn’t name the candidates. Labour are nowhere. This seat could go SNP, but I’m sticking with my original prediction. I just don’t see the LibDems hanging on here.
12. Angus
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)
Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
I can’t see anything other than an SNP hold here, despite the Tories being a strong second.
Scotland – Central
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 1, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 0, SNP 5
Revised Prediction: Lab 0, SNP 5
13. Dundee East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)
Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
No problems for Stewart Hosie here.
14. Dundee West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)
Sitting MP: Jim McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Labour has a good majority here but Dundee has always been susceptible to the allure of the SNP and I think they have a good chance of winning here. There are rumours that Jim McGovern is being pressured to stand aside for a new candidate.
15. Perth & North Perthshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)
Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.
16. Argyll & Bute
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)
Sitting MP: Alan Reid (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain
This is a genuine four way marginal now. However, Labour has no record locally and it’s likely their vote and indeed the LibDem vote may splinter to the SNP. If the Tories can take votes from the LibDems they may have a vague possibility of winning here, but my gut instinct is that the SNP is the more likely winner.My original prediction last year was that Alan Reid might hold this, or it would go to Labour. I have revised my view based on more research.
17. Stirling
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)
Sitting MP: Anne McGuire (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
An interesting seat, the more so since the popular Ann McGuire is standing down. The Tories haven’t won here since Michael Forsyth unexpectedly held the seat in 1992. They won’t this time either. They might not, but the SNP might well come from third place to win this seat.
Scotland – Fife
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 3, LibDem 1, SNP 2
Revised Prediction: Lab 1, LibDem 1, SNP 4
18. Ochil & South Perthshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)
Sitting MP: Gordon Banks (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
If the SNP is to break through, then this is a must-win seat for them.
19. North East Fife
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)
Sitting MP: Sir Menzies Campbell (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Last year I reckoned this seat would definitely remain LibDem. Now I am not so sure. There has been a movement from the LibDems to the Tories in Scotland. At the moment it wouldn’t be enough to gift the Tories the seat, but they will be putting in a lot of effort here. The big question is if the SNP can also capitalise on ex LibDem voters here. At the moment I’’m keeping this as a LibDem hold but this is one to watch before the election. UPDATE: If Sir Ming was standing again I would bve 100% confident that he would hold this seat. But he’s not. However, the SNP have such a mountain to climb here I just can’t believe they can overturn a majority of this size in this seat. They would have to take votes from both Labour and Conservative in substantial numbers to do so. I reckon they have a 25% chance.
20. Glenrothes
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)
Sitting MP: Lindsay Roy (Lab)
Prediction: Lab hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATED: The Ashcroft poll shows the SNP on the march in Fife in general. Lindsay Roy’s successor will do well to see them off.
21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)
Sitting MP: Gordon Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
22. Dunfermline West & Fife
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)
Sitting MP: Thomas Docherty (Lab)
Prediction: Lab hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Not a massive majority, but with the LibDems in second place it’s hard to believe that there can be any other outcome here other than a Labour hold. UPDATE: This is one of those seats that if the polls are right the SNP would take.
23. Falkirk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)
Sitting MP: Eric Joyce (Ind, formerly Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Eric Joyce’s chickens may well come home to roost for Labour. Even thought there is a big Labour majority here, the SNP are in a good second place and I would expect the Labout vote to go down to below 35%, allowing the SNP to cut through.
Scotland – Edinburgh
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Labour 6, SNP 3
Revised Prediction: Lab 2, SNP 7
34. Linlithgow & Falkirk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)
Sitting MP: Michael Connarty (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Should be safe, but isn’t…
35. Livingston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)
Sitting MP: Graeme Morrice (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
36. Edinburgh West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)
Sitting MP: Michael Crockart (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain
Frankly this could go anywhere. I’m not sure the SNP can spring from fourth to first place, but it’s perfectly possible to se a scenario where they could. It really depends how the LibDem cookie crumbles, and crumble it surely will. I had predicted a LibDem hold here, but now I am not so sure. Their majority went down by 10,000 last time and they’be been obliterated in recent elections in Edinburgh.
37. Edinburgh South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)
Sitting MP: Alistair Darling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Alistair Darling may be retiring, but it’s difficult to see a result here that isn’t a Labour win. UPDATED: How tim changes things. If Darling were staying things might be different but the Ashcroft poll makes it difficult to predict anything but a Labour loss to the SNP.
38. Edinburgh North & Leith
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)
Sitting MP: Mark Lazarowicz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat has a small majority but because it is the LibDems who are the challengers, I am predicting an increased Labour majority here. UPDATED: Surely too difficult for the SNP to steal a march from fourth place?
39. Edinburgh East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)
Sitting MP: Sheila Gilmore (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: Was. Not anymore.
40. Edinburgh South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)
Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The LibDems came so close to winning this seat in 2010. If much of their 2010 vote transfers to the Conservatives, as it could do, this could be a surprise Tory gain in May. Don’t bank on it through. I predict Ian Murray will hold on.
41. Midlothian
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)
Sitting MP: David Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Try as the SNP might, I just don’t see them overturning this size of majority. Elsewhere maybe, but not in this seat. UPDATE: I’ve tried. And I might.
42. East Lothian
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)
Sitting MP: Fiona O’Donnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: If the SNP stay at plus 40% in the polls, they will take this seat.
Scotland – Borders & Ayrshire
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, Lib 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 4, SNP 1
Revised Prediction: Con 2, SNP 5
28. North Ayshire & Arran
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7212 (15.6%)
Labour: 21860 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (25.9%)
Others: 449 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9895 (21.5%)
Sitting MP: Katy Clark (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Big majority to overcome, but the polls show that it’s possible in this area.
29. Central Ayrshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8943 (20.4%)
Labour: 20950 (47.7%)
Lib Dem: 5236 (11.9%)
SNP: 8364 (19%)
Others: 422 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12007 (27.3%)
Sitting MP: Brian Donohoe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
This one may be out of the reach of the SNP. UPDATE: Or maybe not.
30. Kilmarnock & Loudoun
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6592 (14.2%)
Labour: 24460 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 3419 (7.3%)
SNP: 12082 (26%)
MAJORITY: 12378 (26.6%)
Sitting MP: Cathy Jamieson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Again, I just can’t see a 12k majority being threatened. UPDATE: But I can now. What a difference two months make…
43. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16555 (33.8%)
Labour: 5003 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 22230 (45.4%)
SNP: 4497 (9.2%)
UKIP: 595 (1.2%)
Others: 134 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5675 (11.6%)
Sitting MP: Michael Moore (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Michael Moore succeeded David Steel and it’s almost impossible to think of this seat being anything other than LibDem. However, the Tory candidate, John Lamont is the local MSP and he stood here in 2010. The Tory vote here increased by 3000 in 2010 and but Moore managed to squeeze the Labour vote too. It’s likely that vote will return from whence it came, but will it be enough for the Tories to squeeze home? It just might.
44. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17457 (38%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 9080 (19.8%)
SNP: 4945 (10.8%)
Green: 510 (1.1%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 4194 (9.1%)
Sitting MP: David Mundell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A Labour gain here is not out of the question if the bulk of the LibDem vote crumbles to them. Is this likely here? The consensus seems to be no. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll shows the SNP neck and neck with the Tories here. Assuming Mundell is seen as a good constituency MP that should see him squeak home.
45. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11721 (25.5%)
Labour: 21632 (47.1%)
Lib Dem: 4264 (9.3%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJORITY: 9911 (21.6%)
Sitting MP: Sandra Osborne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
This is an interesting seat in that until 1992 it was a Tory seat held by Phil Gallie. It has a core Tory vote which has been increasing since 1992. The only way the Tories can regain this seat is if the Labour votes crashes to the SNP. If that happened, it’s possible for the SNP to take the seat, but either of these scenarios is pretty fanciful. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll shows a 20% swing to the SNP here.
46. Dumfries & Galloway
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16501 (31.6%)
Labour: 23950 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 4608 (8.8%)
SNP: 6419 (12.3%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 7449 (14.3%)
Sitting MP: Russell Brown (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
On the face of it a relatively safe call for Labour. Or is it? This seat has been held by the SNP and the Tories in recent memory. Either could come through the middle here, but I’m sticking with a ‘safe’ prediction here. UPDATE: But I’m not now. If the SNP stick at 40% plus I think Russell Brown will lose.
Scotland – Glasgow Surrounds
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 9
Revised Prediction: Lab 1, SNP 8
24. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3407 (8.3%)
Labour: 23549 (57.2%)
Lib Dem: 3924 (9.5%)
SNP: 9794 (23.8%)
Others: 476 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 13755 (33.4%)
Sitting MP: Greg McClymont (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: It was. The Ashcroft poll in this seat is pretty conclusive, putting the SNP on 41%. The only slight caveat is that among the over 65s, who are most likely to vote, the SNP are on only 26%.
25. West Dunbartonshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3242 (7.7%)
Labour: 25905 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 3434 (8.1%)
SNP: 8497 (20.1%)
UKIP: 683 (1.6%)
Others: 505 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 17408 (41.2%)
Sitting MP: Gemma Doyle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: Narrow SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: Labour ought to retain this seat but the Ashcroft poll shos a 34-25 margin of victory for the SNP. Labour needs to mobilise its older voters to turn out here too.
26. Inverclyde
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (56%)
Lib Dem: 5007 (13.3%)
SNP: 6577 (17.5%)
UKIP: 433 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 14416 (38.4%)
Sitting MP: Iain McKenzie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: A similar story to the previous two seats.
27. Paisley & Renfrewshire South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3979 (9.9%)
Labour: 23842 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 3812 (9.5%)
SNP: 7228 (18.1%)
Independent: 513 (1.3%)
Others: 624 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16614 (41.5%)
Sitting MP: Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll predicts an SNP victory by a margin of ten points. However, the Alexander name may just allow Douglas to squeak home. I’ll stick my neck out here and predict he will do just that.
31. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6613 (13%)
Labour: 26241 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5052 (9.9%)
SNP: 11738 (23%)
Green: 1003 (2%)
Independent: 299 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 14503 (28.5%)
Sitting MP: Michael McCann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: Toast if the SNP poll ratings are maintained.
32. Lanark & Hamilton East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6981 (15%)
Labour: 23258 (50%)
Lib Dem: 5249 (11.3%)
SNP: 9780 (21%)
UKIP: 616 (1.3%)
Independent: 670 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 13478 (29%)
Sitting MP: Jimmy Hood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: See above.
33. Airdrie & Shotts
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3133 (8.7%)
Labour: 20849 (58.2%)
Lib Dem: 2898 (8.1%)
SNP: 8441 (23.5%)
Independent: 528 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 12408 (34.6%)
Sitting MP: Pamela Nash (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: See above.
58. East Dunbartonshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7431 (15.5%)
Labour: 16367 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 18551 (38.7%)
SNP: 5054 (10.5%)
UKIP: 545 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2184 (4.6%)
Sitting MP: Jo Swinson (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems. Her only chink of light is the Labour vote collapsing to the SNP. UPDATE: I’m told the SNP have 1,000 new members in this constituency and the LibDem campaign is now ignoring Labour and fighting the SNP tide. This could turn into a rather interesting four way marginal. I’m now tipping the SNP to squeak it, but I think their intervention may possibly allow Jo Swinson to squeak home, and if she does become a leading candidate for the LibDem leadership.
59. Paisley & Renfrewshire North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6381 (14.6%)
Labour: 23613 (54%)
Lib Dem: 4597 (10.5%)
SNP: 8333 (19.1%)
Independent: 550 (1.3%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15280 (35%)
Sitting MP: Jim Sheridan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: Labour to lose this narrowly.
Scotland – Glasgow
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Lab 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 10, SNP 1
Revised Prediction: Labour 6, SNP 5
47. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3374 (8.1%)
Labour: 27728 (66.6%)
Lib Dem: 3519 (8.5%)
SNP: 7014 (16.8%)
MAJORITY: 20714 (49.8%)
Sitting MP: Tom Clarke (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll has the SNP narrowly ahead here but Labour retains more support among older people (43-21) and they are more certain to vote. I think this seat will stay Labour.
48. Motherwell & Wishaw
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3660 (9.4%)
Labour: 23910 (61.1%)
Lib Dem: 3840 (9.8%)
SNP: 7104 (18.2%)
TUSC: 609 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16806 (43%)
Sitting MP: Frank Roy
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat: UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll puts Labour 9 points behind here, so it’s still possible for Labour to win, but I’m calling this for the SNP.
49. Glasgow East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 1453 (4.5%)
Labour: 19797 (61.6%)
Lib Dem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (24.7%)
BNP: 677 (2.1%)
UKIP: 209 (0.6%)
Others: 454 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 11840 (36.8%)
Sitting MP: Margaret Curren (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: Labour are seven points behind here. Will Margaret Curran’s name recognition be enough to save her? Doubtful.
50. Glasgow North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 1569 (5.3%)
Labour: 20100 (68.3%)
Lib Dem: 2262 (7.7%)
SNP: 4158 (14.1%)
BNP: 798 (2.7%)
TUSC: 187 (0.6%)
Others: 335 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 15942 (54.2%)
Sitting MP: William Bain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
51. Glasgow North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2089 (7.1%)
Labour: 13181 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 9283 (31.3%)
SNP: 3530 (11.9%)
BNP: 296 (1%)
Green: 947 (3.2%)
TUSC: 287 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3898 (13.2%)
Sitting MP: Ann McKechin (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
The result of this seat will depend in large part on what happens to the LibDem vote and whether the Labour vote crumbles to the SNP. I’m assuming it will. Ladbrokes have this as an SNP gain too.
52. Glasgow North West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3537 (9.9%)
Labour: 19233 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 5622 (15.8%)
SNP: 5430 (15.3%)
BNP: 699 (2%)
Green: 882 (2.5%)
Others: 179 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13611 (38.3%)
Sitting MP: John Robertson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. UPDATE: The SNP are only 4 points ahead here, and again, well behind on the over 65s (36-19). I’m calling this for Labour.
53. Glasgow Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2158 (7.1%)
Labour: 15908 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5010 (16.4%)
SNP: 5357 (17.5%)
BNP: 616 (2%)
Green: 800 (2.6%)
UKIP: 246 (0.8%)
Others: 485 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 10551 (34.5%)
Sitting MP: Anas Sarwar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: The SNP are 11 points ahead according the the Ashcroft poll.
54. Glasgow South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2084 (6.6%)
Labour: 19863 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 2870 (9%)
SNP: 5192 (16.3%)
BNP: 841 (2.6%)
TUSC: 931 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 14671 (46.2%)
Sitting MP: Ian Davidson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. UPDATE Another one with a narrow (5%) SNP lead but a massive Labour lead among the over 65s (45-18).
55. East Renfrewshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15567 (30.4%)
Labour: 25987 (50.8%)
Lib Dem: 4720 (9.2%)
SNP: 4535 (8.9%)
UKIP: 372 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10420 (20.4%)
Sitting MP: Jim Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Jim Murphy is standing again here, which is a bit odd in itself, but he’s likely to pull through here.
56. Glasgow South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4592 (11.5%)
Labour: 20736 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 4739 (11.8%)
SNP: 8078 (20.1%)
BNP: 637 (1.6%)
Green: 961 (2.4%)
TUSC: 351 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 12658 (31.6%)
Sitting MP: Tom Harris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Revised Prediction: SNP gain
Safe seat. UPDATE: An 11 point lead for the SNP here. I’d hate to see Tom Harris lose, but on this evidence it looks entirely possible.
57. Rutherglen & Hamilton W
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4540 (9.7%)
Labour: 28566 (60.8%)
Lib Dem: 5636 (12%)
SNP: 7564 (16.1%)
UKIP: 675 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (44.7%)
Sitting MP: Tom Greatrex (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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