General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 35. Cumbria

30 Apr 2017 at 19:48

CUMBRIA

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 1

1. Barrow and Furness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16018 (36.3%)
Labour: 21226 (48.1%)
Lib Dem: 4424 (10%)
BNP: 840 (1.9%)
Green: 530 (1.2%)
UKIP: 841 (1.9%)
Independent: 245 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5208 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op John Woodcock 18,320 42.3 -5.8
Conservative Simon Fell 17,525 40.5 +4.2
UKIP Nigel Cecil 5,070 11.7 +9.8
Liberal Democrat Clive Peaple 1,169 2.7 -7.3
Green Rob O’Hara 1,061 2.5 +1.3
Independent Ian Jackson 130 0.3 N/A
Majority 795 1.8 -10.0
Turnout 43,275 63.3 -0.4

Leave Vote: 57.3%

Sitting MP: John Woodcock (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Nearly went to the Tories last time. This time it will. When the Tories do well, this seat goes Tory, as it did in 1983.

2. Carlisle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16589 (39.3%)
Labour: 15736 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 6567 (15.6%)
BNP: 1086 (2.6%)
Green: 614 (1.5%)
UKIP: 969 (2.3%)
TUSC: 376 (0.9%)
Others: 263 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 853 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Stevenson 18,873 44.3 +5.0
Labour Lee Sherriff 16,099 37.8 +0.5
UKIP Fiona Mills 5,277 12.4 +10.1
Green Helen Davison 1,125 2.6 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Loraine Birchall 1,087 2.6 -13.0
Independent Alfred Okam 126 0.3 +0.3
Majority 2,774 6.5 +4.5
Turnout 42,587 64.7 0.0

Leave Vote: 60.1%

Sitting MP: John Stevenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A small majority, but it should be enough given the national picture.

3. Copeland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15866 (37.1%)
Labour: 19699 (46%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.4%)
Green: 389 (0.9%)
UKIP: 994 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3833 (9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jamie Reed 16,750 42.3 −3.7
Conservative Stephen Haraldsen 14,186 35.8 −1.3
UKIP Michael Pye 6,148 15.5 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Danny Gallagher 1,368 3.5 −6.7
Green Allan Todd 1,179 3.0 +2.1
Majority 2,564 6.5 −2.4
Turnout 39,631 63.8 −3.8

2017 By Election Result:
Conservative Trudy Harrison 13,748 44.3 +8.5
Labour Gillian Troughton 11,601 37.3 −4.9
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Hanson 2,252 7.2 +3.8
UKIP Fiona Mills 2,025 6.5 −9.0
Independent Michael Guest 811 2.6 N/A
Green Jack Lenox 515 1.7 −1.3
Independent Roy Ivinson 116 0.4 N/A
Majority 2,147 7.0
Turnout 31,889 51.35 −12.4

Leave Vote: 59.2%

Sitting MP: Trudi Harrison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Penrith & the Border

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24071 (53.4%)
Labour: 5834 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 12830 (28.5%)
BNP: 1093 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 11241 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rory Stewart 26,202 59.7 +6.3
Labour Lee Rushworth 6,308 14.4 +1.4
UKIP John Stanyer 5,353 12.2 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Neil Hughes 3,745 8.5 -19.9
Green George Burrow 2,313 5.3 +5.3
Majority 19,894 45.3 +20.4
Turnout 43,921 67.4 -2.5

Leave Vote: 55.2%

Sitting MP: Rory Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Westmorland & Lonsdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18632 (36.2%)
Labour: 1158 (2.2%)
Lib Dem: 30896 (60%)
UKIP: 801 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12264 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Tim Farron 25,194 51.5 −8.5
Conservative Ann Myatt 16,245 33.2 −3.0
UKIP Alan Piper 3,031 6.2 +4.6
Labour John Bateson 2,661 5.4 +3.2
Green Chris Loynes 1,798 3.7 N/A
Majority 8,949 18.3 -5.5
Turnout 48,929 74.3 -1.5

Leave Vote: 47.1%

Sitting MP: Tim Farron (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

6. Workington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13290 (33.9%)
Labour: 17865 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 5318 (13.5%)
BNP: 1496 (3.8%)
UKIP: 876 (2.2%)
English Dem: 414 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4575 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sue Hayman 16,282 42.3 −3.2
Conservative Rozila Kana 11,596 30.1 −3.7
UKIP Mark Jenkinson 7,538 19.6 +17.4
Liberal Democrat Phill Roberts 1,708 4.4 −4.1
Green Jill Perry 1,149 3.0 +3.0
Independent Roy Ivinson 190 0.5 +0.5
Majority 4,686 12.2
Turnout 38,463 65.6

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Sue Hayman (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Relatively safe Labour seat, or at least it was. All it takes is for half of the UKIP vote to go to the Conservatives and they will win.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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