Hear me out. I think I am more or less alone in thinking that Andy Burnham may still call a general election this year. If he does, it will almost certainly be held on Thursday 10 December. “You’ve lost your marbles, Iain”, I can hear many of you thinking. I can’t in all honesty advise you to put money on it, but I think it’s more than a distinct possibility. Let me tell you why.

A good General leads his troops into battle when his opponents are at their weakest. That moment is now. Here are 10 reasons why I think Burnham should call an election for 10 December.

  1. The latest ISPSOS/MORI poll shows Labour with an eight point lead, the largest since Burnham became PM. This is more than enough to achieve a solid majority.
  2. Reform UK have shed a third of their support over the last year. Soft Reform support is drifting back to the Conservatives, with many people feeling distinctly queasy about the various donation scandals. Only 1 in 5 British adults (19%) believe Reform UK is ready to form the next government —a drop from 22% last month and 29% last September. 62% currently disagree Reform UK are ready (up 2 points from last month).
  3. Although the Tories are now firmly in second place, and have the highest poll rating (24%) since July 2024, where they got 27 per cent of the vote, the party’s poll ratings fall way behind those of their leader, Kemi Badenoch. As she said in her conference speech, people are giving the shop window a second look, but they are not yet ready to buy. By 2028, they may be, and that’s a risk for Andy Burnham
  4. The Conservatives have very few candidates in place and an election called next week would stretch their resources beyond anything they’ve known before if they are to field candidates in every seat.
  5. Calling an election now would prevent Reform UK from spending most of the £72 million in donations they have recently received.
  6. The Conservatives are cash poor. Although they’ve done far better in raising money than they did after the 1997 election defeat, the coffers are not overfull. It is alleged that Labour is in a similar position, but the unions would no doubt come to Labour’s aid.
  7. Following the disasters inflicted on the Greens, largely by themselves, many Labour-Green switchers are returning to the Labour fold.
  8. Andy Burnham will never be more popular than he is now. By Christmas the polls will likely have turned, and a May election will soon he ruled out, meaning he would have to rely on a reversal in Labour’s fortunes by 2029.
  9. Burnham was a member of Gordon Brown’s cabinet when he funked calling an election in October 2007. It led to him denying him the re-election which was so important for his agenda. This will be playing on Burnham’s mind.
  10. Burnham is more of a risk taker than most. The fact that he has ruled out at early election is utterly irrelevant. All prime ministers do that until they actually call one.

Try as I might, I can think of few reasons Burnham would not call an early election. However, there is one, and it’s an important one. Although he would win a majority – I suspect it would be around 50 seats – many of the seats lost would be to Reform UK. Although their support has declined, there’s little doubt that after an election, their parliamentary representation would increase to more than 100. The question is, could they overtake the Conservatives?

The main reason I think Burnham is seriously considering holding an election stems from his party conference speech. It was almost an act of manifesto writing. Virtually every policy he announced could only be enacted after an election, with several of them being impossible due to the commitments made in the 2024 manifesto. As Ed Davey put it, there were a series of ‘definitely maybes’. If he wins a December election all of these policies could start to be enacted in 2027 rather than in the 2030s. I don’t see Andy Burnham as a patient man.

If polling day is to be 10 December, Parliament would need to be dissolved at the latest by 5 November. So, in order to have a clear up few days, the election would need to be announced as early as possible after the budget on Wednesday. If the announcement is to come, I would expect it to come on Saturday or Monday week.

Remember, you heard it here first. But if it doesn’t happen, forget you ever wasted your time reading this!