A few observations about the local election results…

  1. For those who have always though Reform UK would be a ‘here today, gone tomorrow’ political party, think again. The only way that will happen is if Nigel Farage self combusts. He’s got the sniff of power in his nostrils. He knows if he is to position his party to take power, there can be no control freak inspired self-indulgences. In September I was ridiculed for saying there was a ten per cent charge he could be prime minister. Those chances have now at least doubled.
  2. Everyone has concentrated on the Tory collapse on Thursday, and it’s easy to see why. It was a truly  disastrous night, and worse than I, or they, were expecting. They lost 674 seats. The only bright note was Paul Bristow winning the mayoralty of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
  3. Few, however, have made any real comment on the fact that Labour lost 187 seats. This would not seem important except that 2021 was a low point for Labour and I thought there was a real possibility of them gaining back some of their 2021 losses. But in 9 months, the electorate wanted to punish them too.
  4. Equally concerning for the Conservatives was the fact that they have now been supplanted as the second biggest party in local government, in terms of number of councillors, by the Liberal Democrats. They gained 163 seats and three more councils. I was actually expecting them to gain far more than 163, but they were eclipsed by Reform in many of the areas (like Kent) where they might have expected to make more progress. The Greens flattered to deceive and only increased their councillor numbers by 4 But that’s the eighth year in a row they have increased their numbers.
  5. In England, five party politics is now established and in Scotland and Wales it’s six. Tory and Labour strategists have to look both ways and devise strategies to defeat not only each other, but the parties to their right and left. This is not going to be an easy process, and will involve in a lot of inter party conflicts. For the LibDems, do they try to emulate the Carney strategy of making Trump public enemy number 1? And for the Greens, are they about to (again) tear themselves apart over the issue of Trans rights, after their coleader Adrian Rasay said he welcomed the Supreme Court judgement?

Politics is unlikely to become boring in the months and years ahead.