I’ve now finished publishing my predictions for Scottish seats. Few people seem to have quibbled with very much that I have predicted, yet my predictions are way out from the polls, which project an SNP vote share of anything between 45% and 50% with Labour being in the low 20s.
On that basis others are projecting that the SNP could win upwards of 40 of Scotland’s 59 seats. I regard that as completely fanciful and it shows why making any sensible prediction has to be done on a seat by seat basis. In truth, when I did my Scottish predictions I had the SNP on 13 seats. I went back and looked at some of their other target seats and bumped them up to 18. How on earth they could win much beyond that is beyond me. It would be an earthquake of epic political proportions. Even now, with 18 seats, they are having to overturn massive Labour majorities of 12-14,000.
Just to remind you I had the SNP on 18, Labour on 33, the LibDems on 5 and the Conservatives on 3. Some reckon I have been too kind to the LibDems, Labour and the Tories. Well, we will see.
But does anyone really believe the SNP can score much better than 18-20 seats? I’m willing to be convinced, but you’ll have to have some much stronger arguments than just quoting national opinion polls.
You can see all my seat by seat predictions “HERE:http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/29/general-election-predictions-the-complete-list