This is the seventeenth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 2, LibDem 1

1. Cheltenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21739 (41.2%)
Labour: 2703 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 26659 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1192 (2.3%)
Others: 493 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4920 (9.3%)

Sitting MP: Martin Horwood (LibDem)
Prediction LibDem hold

A Liberal Democrat seat since 1992, this is one which the Conservatives had expected to take back in both 2005 and 2010, but it wasn’t to be. The Labour vote has been squeezed to just 5%. Martin Horwood is extremely popular and will have built up a high personal vote. On a catastrophic night for the LibDems it’s easy to see Cheltenham falling, but not otherwise.

2. Forest of Dean

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22853 (46.9%)
Labour: 11789 (24.2%)
Lib Dem: 10676 (21.9%)
Green: 923 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2522 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11064 (22.7%)

Sitting MP: Mark Harper (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bearing in mind this seat has a large Tory majority it’s astonishing to think that it was a Labour seat in 1997 and 2001. Harper will win again, but with a reduced majority.

3. Gloucester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20267 (39.9%)
Labour: 17847 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9767 (19.2%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1808 (3.6%)
English Dem: 564 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2420 (4.8%)

Sitting MP: Richard Graham (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

A Labour seat between 1997 and 2010 if this isn’t more or less a dead cert Labour gain, I don’t know what is, assuming Ed Miliband is anywhere close to taking power.

4. Stroud

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23679 (40.8%)
Labour: 22380 (38.6%)
Lib Dem: 8955 (15.4%)
Green: 1542 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.2%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1299 (2.2%)

Sitting MP: Neil Carmichael (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

I know from personal experience that Neil Carmichael has made the constituency his priority, but it’s doubtful one term is enough to have built up enough of a personal vote to combat the march of Miliband. The former Labour MP for the area David Drew is standing again, which presumably makes Neil Carmichael’s task all the harder. Has to be a definite Labour gain if Miliband is to make it to Number 10.

5. Tewkesbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25472 (47.2%)
Labour: 6253 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 19162 (35.5%)
Green: 525 (1%)
UKIP: 2230 (4.1%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6310 (11.7%)

Sitting MP: Laurence Robertson (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Safe seat. Probably an increased majority if the LibDem vote peels away to Labour.

6. The Cotswolds

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29075 (53%)
Labour: 5886 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 16211 (29.6%)
Green: 940 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2292 (4.2%)
Independent: 428 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12864 (23.5%)

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

Same as Tewkesbury.

Coming next: Surrey

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE