This is the twentieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.


Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6

1. Camborne & Redruth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15969 (37.6%)
Labour: 6945 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 15903 (37.4%)
Green: 581 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2152 (5.1%)
Others: 943 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 66 (0.2%

Sitting MP: George Eustice (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A rematch between current MP George Eustice and former LibDem MP Julia Goldsworthy. This could turn out to be a three way marginal if the LibDem vote collapses to Labour and the Tory vote collapses to UKIP. But you have to say if Julia Goldsworthy couldn’t hold this in a good year for the LibDems, can she really win it back in May? I doubt it.

2. North Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19531 (41.7%)
Labour: 1971 (4.2%)
Lib Dem: 22512 (48.1%)
UKIP: 2300 (4.9%)
Others: 530 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2981 (6.4%)

Sitting MP: Dan Rogerson (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A seat where the LibDem majority has been on the slide in every election since 1997’s highpoint of more than 13,000. If UKIP hadn’t existed, the Conservatives would have won this seat in 2010. So the key question is whether they will eat further into the Conservative vote in 2015. If so, the LibDems will hang on. Otherwise this is a pretty safe bet for the Tories.

3. St Austell & Newquay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18877 (40%)
Labour: 3386 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (42.7%)
BNP: 1022 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1757 (3.7%)
Others: 2007 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 1312 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Gilbert (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat could go either way. Labour are nowhere with only 7% of the vote. If UKIP does well in the South West, the LibDems win here, if they don’t, they won’t.

4. St Ives

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17900 (39%)
Labour: 3751 (8.2%)
Lib Dem: 19619 (42.7%)
Green: 1308 (2.8%)
UKIP: 2560 (5.6%)
Others: 783 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1719 (3.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew George (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories got a 10.39% swing last time and took a huge chuck out of Andrew George’s 11,000 majority. This time George will be hoping UKIP’s vote reduces Tory potency. His incumbency and local popularity could see Andrew George home, but I now think the Tories may make it.

5. South East Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22390 (45.1%)
Labour: 3507 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 19170 (38.6%)
Green: 826 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3083 (6.2%)
Others: 641 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3220 (6.5%)

Sitting MP: Sheryll Murray (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The LibDems lost this seat last time after holding it for three terms and will be looking to win it back. The only way they can do that is if UKIP bites into the Tory vote in quite a substantial way and the LibDem vote holds up better than most expect. Will be tight but Sheryll Murray should win the day.

6. Truro & Falmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20349 (41.7%)
Labour: 4697 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 19914 (40.8%)
Green: 858 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.9%)
Others: 1039 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 435 (0.9%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Newton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Too tight to call really but if the trend of LibDem votes going back to Labour continues, Sarah Newton should hold on.

Coming next: Somerset

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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