This is the twenty-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.


Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, LibDem 1

1. Bridgwater & Somerset West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24675 (45.3%)
Labour: 9332 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 15426 (28.3%)
BNP: 1282 (2.4%)
Green: 859 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.8%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 9249 (17%)

Sitting MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

2. Somerton & Frome

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26976 (44.5%)
Labour: 2675 (4.4%)
Lib Dem: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.2%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1817 (3%)

Sitting MP: David Heath (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

LibDem HQ must have been tearing their hair out when David Heath announced his retirement as he stood the best prospect of retaining this seat. His current majority is the largest he has ever enjoyed, but that is largely because at the last election the UKIP vote doubled to nearly 2,000. If they do the same in 2015 they could deny the Conservatives a gain they thought they had in the bag last time.

3. Taunton Deane

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24538 (42.2%)
Labour: 2967 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 28531 (49.1%)
UKIP: 2114 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 3993 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Jeremy Browne (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain

Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. However, his personal vote will now disappear as he is standing down. I think it’s possible for the LibDems to hold the seat but I’d given them no more than a 25% chance of doing so.,

4. Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23760 (42.5%)
Labour: 4198 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 24560 (44%)
BNP: 1004 (1.8%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1711 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 800 (1.4%)

Sitting MP: Tessa Munt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The former seat of David Heathcoat-Amory Tessa Munt won Wells in 2010. She has enjoyed a high media profile and has conducted some good campaigns. The Tories will make every effort to regain this seat and will be devastated if they don’t pull it off.

5. Yeovil

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18807 (32.9%)
Labour: 2991 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 31843 (55.7%)
BNP: 1162 (2%)
UKIP: 2357 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 13036 (22.8%)

Sitting MP: David Laws (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Surely a dead cert LibDem hold? Laws may lose a few votes because of his expenses scandal, and will suffer because of the LibDem decline in popularity, but I can’t see a 13,000 majority being overturned.

Coming next: Avon

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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