This is the thirty-fifth a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) – and the first for Wales – which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.


Seats: 3
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2

1. Arfon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4416 (16.9%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Lib Dem: 3666 (14.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (36%)
UKIP: 685 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 1455 (5.6%)

Sitting MP: Hywel Williams (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

This has been a Plaid seat for yonks, but Labour isn’t far behind, albeit on a very small electorate. The Plaid organisation is strong here. It’s not inconceivable that Labour could win but I doubt it.

2. Dwyfor Meironnydd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6447 (22.3%)
Labour: 4021 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 3538 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 12814 (44.3%)
UKIP: 776 (2.7%)
Independent: 1310 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 6367 (22%)

Sitting MP: Elfyn Llwyd (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

Safe seat.

3. Ynys Mon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7744 (22.5%)
Labour: 11490 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 2592 (7.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.2%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.5%)
Christian: 163 (0.5%)
Independent: 2225 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 2461 (7.1%)

Sitting MP: Albert Owen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat has been held by the Tories, Labour and Plaid in the last thirty years. In 1992 and 1997 it went Plaid but since then the Labour majority has been increasing. I suspect it will again. However, UKIP is expected to do very well here. No one knows where their votes may come from, so anything is possible.


Seats: 2
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, LibDem 1

1. Brecon & Radnorshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Roger Williams
Prediction: LibDem hold
A Conservative gain here is possible but not definite. One of the tightest results in 2015, I’d think. The LibDems must be hoping that Roger Williams will definitely stand again, because if they hold onto this seat it will be in large part down to his personal vote. A few months ago I tipped this seat to go blue. I’m revising that now to a very narrow LibDem win. The Ashcroft polls show a definite loss to the Tories when people are asked who they will vote for in the election. But when they are asked to think about their own particular constituency the situation is dramatically reversed and the LibDems are ahead by 4%.

2. Montgomeryshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13976 (41.3%)
Labour: 2407 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 12792 (37.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.3%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.3%)
Independent: 324 (1%)
Others: 384 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1184 (3.5%)

Sitting MP: Glyn Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Glyn Davies won this seat in part because Lembit Opik outstayed his welcome. He’s proved to be quite popular and although the LibDems are convinced they can retake this seat I suspect they’ll be badly disappointed.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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