This is the thirty-seventh in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.


Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5

1. Aberconwy

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10734 (35.8%)
Labour: 7336 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 5786 (19.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.8%)
UKIP: 632 (2.1%)
Christian: 137 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3398 (11.3%)

Sitting MP: Guto Bebb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

As long as the opposition remains fairly evenly split, Guto Bebb can feel confident of winning for a second time. But if Labour take a lot of votes from the LibDems, then they could take this seat.

2. Alyn & Deeside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12885 (32.3%)
Labour: 15804 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 7308 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.9%)
BNP: 1368 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 2919 (7.3%)

Sitting MP: Mark Tami (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat but there are only two realistic outcomes here. A Labour hold or a Tory gain. Yes, you read that right. This is a seat where UKIP are apparently leeching votes off Labour. This could let the Tories in. Mark Tami will know this so expect a big Labour campaign here.

3. Clwyd South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10477 (30.2%)
Labour: 13311 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.7%)
BNP: 1100 (3.2%)
UKIP: 819 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Susan Elan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had hopes here last time around, but they didn’t quite manage it. They won’t this time either. Susan Elan Jones is looking at an increased majoirty.

4. Clwyd West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15833 (41.5%)
Labour: 9414 (24.7%)
Lib Dem: 5801 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5864 (15.4%)
UKIP: 864 (2.3%)
Christian: 239 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6419 (16.8%)

Sitting MP: David Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour win is not out of the question but in twi terms Jones has built up a good majority. However, this time he is faced by the former Labour MP for the area, Gareth Thomas, who wasn’t allowed to stand in 2010 because of an all-women shortlist. He will put up a tough fight, but Jones should triumph.

5. Delyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12811 (34.6%)
Labour: 15083 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 5747 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (5%)
BNP: 844 (2.3%)
UKIP: 655 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 2272 (6.1%)

Sitting MP: David Hanson (Lab)
Prediction Labour hold

A straight Labour/Tory fight here, one which David Hanson is most likely to win again. However, there is little room for complacency as his majority has reduced from more than 11,000 to 2272. UKIP topped the poll here in the Euros and David Hanson will fear that they take more votes off him than the Tories.

6. Vale of Clwyd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 4472 (12.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.8%)
BNP: 827 (2.3%)
UKIP: 515 (1.4%)
Others: 127 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2509 (7.1%

Sitting MP: Chris Ruane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very similar to Clwyd West in that it’s a straight Labour/Tory fight with an ever decreasing Labour majority. Another seat where UKIP expect to do well and could deprive Labour of a majority if they eat into the working class vote. This is one of four of five North Wales Labour marginals where this could happen.

7. Wrexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8375 (25.4%)
Labour: 12161 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 8503 (25.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2029 (6.2%)
BNP: 1134 (3.4%)
UKIP: 774 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3658 (11.1%)

Sitting MP: Ian Lucas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Conservatives have always scratched their heads and wondered why they haven’t ever won Wrexham in recent times. UKIP finished first in the Euro elections here and they have opened up a campaign HQ in Wrexham high street. They got very few votes in 2010 in Wrexham but pundits are predicting a high vote this time. But who will they take votes from? The answer is probably all the parties. Ian Lucas will be a nervous man on election night but I can’t really predict anything other than a Labour hold as it stands.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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