This is the forty-sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Nottinghamshire
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 9
1. Ashfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Quite how the LibDems nearly won this seat in 2010 I do not know. They went from 14% of the vote to 33%. They are fielding the same candidate this time. However, even if they throw the kitchen sink at Gloria de Piero I don’t think it will be enough. I expect her majority to increase by several thousand.
2. Bassetlaw
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)
Sitting MP: John Mann )Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Broxtowe
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)
Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Another one of those seats where Labour has to win if Ed Miliband has any hope of gaining any sort power. Anna Soubry has been a star of the 2010-15 Parliament and it will be sad to see her lose.
4. Gedling
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)
Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will win again, but he will still have a few butterflies at the count.
5. Mansfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)
Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Labour are said to be nervous about UKIP eating into their vote here, but it is difficult to think this seat could return anything other than a Labour MP.
6. Newark
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)
Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
7. Nottingham East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)
Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Chris Leslie will be a big player in Labour’s future whatever the result of the next election. He will win again here.
8. Nottingham North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
9. Nottingham South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Much will depend here on how the LibDem vote splinters. There is a strong Tory vote here and it should be remembered that until 1992 this was a Tory seat. The LibDem vote rose last time because of the student vote.
10. Rushcliffe
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)
Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
11. Sherwood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Mark Spencer did brilliantly to regain a seat the Tories last won in 1987 but it’s highly doubtful he can hang on to it in 2015.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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