This is the fifty-sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – North & Islands

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: LibDem 4, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: LibDem 4, SNP 2

1. Orkney & Shetland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)

Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

If the LibDems were reduced to two seats, this would be one of the two. A real LibDem stronghold.

2. Na h-Eileanan an lar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)

Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Smallest constituency in the country. Was a Labour seat until 2005.

3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)

Sitting MP: John Thurso (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Both Labour and the SNP think they can win this seat. Highland voters tend to give an incumbent a bigger personal vote than elsewhere and John Thurso is a very popular MP. If anyone can hold a LibDem seat on the Scottish mainland he can.

4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)

Sitting MP: Charles Kennedy (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Charles Kennedy surely has to be safe here.

5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)

Sitting MP: Danny Alexander (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

This seat has unsurprisingly received a lot of Treasury ‘pork’ and the LibDems are putting huge financial resources into it. However, the SNP think it is theirs for the taking and have selected the local council leader Drew Hendry to fight it. Why? They got 51% of the vote in the Holyrood election with the LibDems only scoring 12%. An ICM poll also had the LibDems down 25% and them coming in third place. If this really happened it would evidence of a complete meltdown for the LibDems in Scotland. However the poll size was only 309 so I don’t set much store by that.

6. Moray

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)

Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

No problems for the Westminster leader (for now!) of the SNP.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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