This is the fifty-seventh in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – North East

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 2, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 1, SNP 4

7. Banff & Buchan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)

Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

An easy win for the SNP here.

8. Gordon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Bruce (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain

Sir Malcolm Bruce is standing down. He has benefited from a split opposition in the past but the SNP have been making headway here, and few observers think the LibDems will hold off their challenge. The LibDems’ best strategy is to court tactical votes from Labour and the Tories to keep out Alex Salmond, assuming he does decide to stand here. According to THIS article, that’s just what they are trying.

9. Aberdeen North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)

Sitting MP: Frank Doran (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

A big majority, but the popular Frank Doran is standing down and the SNP have high hopes of taking this seat. They have never done especially well in Aberdeen, but that could change in May. One to watch.

10. Aberdeen South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)

Sitting MP: Dame Anne Begg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This used to be a Tory seat and they still retain a substantial vote. However, with the probably collapse of the LibDem vote, Labour’s majority should increase here.

11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Sir Robert Smith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This may well turn into a three way marginal, with the Tories and the SNP trying to oust Sir Robert Smith. The LibDem majority was halved last time, and it’s very possible to see how rises in the Labour and SNP votes could see this seat return to the Conservative fold. But if the SNP do as the current polls suggest they will, don’t rule out an astonishing SNP gain here.

12. Angus

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)

Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

I can’t see anything other than an SNP hold here, despite the Tories being a strong second.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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