This is the fifty-nineth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – Fife

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 3, LibDem 1, SNP 2

18. Ochil & South Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Banks (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

If the SNP is to break through, then this is a must-win seat for them.

19. North East Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)

Sitting MP: Sir Menzies Campbell (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

Last year I reckoned this seat would definitely remain LibDem. Now I am not so sure. There has been a movement from the LibDems to the Tories in Scotland. At the moment it wouldn’t be enough to gift the Tories the seat, but they will be putting in a lot of effort here. The big question is if the SNP can also capitalise on ex LibDem voters here. At the moment I’’m keeping this as a LibDem hold but this is one to watch before the election.

20. Glenrothes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)

Sitting MP: Lindsay Roy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)

Sitting MP: Gordon Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

22. Dunfermline West & Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)

Sitting MP: Thomas Docherty (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a massive majority, but with the LibDems in second place it’s hard to believe that there can be any other outcome here other than a Labour hold.

23. Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)

Sitting MP: Eric Joyce (Ind, formerly Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Eric Joyce’s chickens may well come home to roost for Labour. Even thought there is a big Labour majority here, the SNP are in a good second place and I would expect the Labout vote to go down to below 35%, allowing the SNP to cut through.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19