This is the sixtieth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – Edinburgh

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Labour 6, SNP 3

34. Linlithgow & Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)

Sitting MP: Michael Connarty (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Should be safe, but isn’t…

35. Livingston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)

Sitting MP: Graeme Morrice (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

36. Edinburgh West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)

Sitting MP: Michael Crockart (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain

Frankly this could go anywhere. I’m not sure the SNP can spring from fourth to first place, but it’s perfectly possible to se a scenario where they could. It really depends how the LibDem cookie crumbles, and crumble it surely will. I had predicted a LibDem hold here, but now I am not so sure. Their majority went down by 10,000 last time and they’be been obliterated in recent elections in Edinburgh.

37. Edinburgh South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)

Sitting MP: Alistair Darling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Alistair Darling may be retiring, but it’s difficult to see a result here that isn’t a Labour win.

38. Edinburgh North & Leith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mark Lazarowicz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This seat has a small majority but because it is the LibDems who are the challengers, I am predicting an increased Labour majority here.

39. Edinburgh East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)

Sitting MP: Sheila Gilmore (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

40. Edinburgh South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)

Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came so close to winning this seat in 2010. If much of their 2010 vote transfers to the Conservatives, as it could do, this could be a surprise Tory gain in May. Don’t bank on it through. I predict Ian Murray will hold on.

41. Midlothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)

Sitting MP: David Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Try as the SNP might, I just don’t see them overturning this size of majority. Elsewhere maybe, but not in this seat.

42. East Lothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)

Sitting MP: Fiona O’Donnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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