This is the sixty-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Scotland – Borders & Ayrshire

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, Lib 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 4, SNP 1

28. North Ayshire & Arran

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7212 (15.6%)
Labour: 21860 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (25.9%)
Others: 449 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9895 (21.5%)

Sitting MP: Katy Clark (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain

Big majority to overcome, but the polls show that it’s possible in this area.

29. Central Ayrshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8943 (20.4%)
Labour: 20950 (47.7%)
Lib Dem: 5236 (11.9%)
SNP: 8364 (19%)
Others: 422 (1%)
MAJORITY: 12007 (27.3%)

Sitting MP: Brian Donohoe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This one may be out of the reach of the SNP.

30. Kilmarnock & Loudoun

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6592 (14.2%)
Labour: 24460 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 3419 (7.3%)
SNP: 12082 (26%)
MAJORITY: 12378 (26.6%)

Sitting MP: Cathy Jamieson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Again, I just can’t see a 12k majority being threatened.

43. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16555 (33.8%)
Labour: 5003 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 22230 (45.4%)
SNP: 4497 (9.2%)
UKIP: 595 (1.2%)
Others: 134 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5675 (11.6%)

Sitting MP: Michael Moore (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Michael Moore succeeded David Steel and it’s almost impossible to think of this seat being anything other than LibDem. However, the Tory candidate, John Lamont is the local MSP and he stood here in 2010. The Tory vote here increased by 3000 in 2010 and but Moore managed to squeeze the Labour vote too. It’s likely that vote will return from whence it came, but will it be enough for the Tories to squeeze home? It just might.

44. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17457 (38%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 9080 (19.8%)
SNP: 4945 (10.8%)
Green: 510 (1.1%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 4194 (9.1%)

Sitting MP: David Mundell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A Labour gain here is not out of the question if the bulk of the LibDem vote crumbles to them. Is this likely here? The consensus seems to be no.

45. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11721 (25.5%)
Labour: 21632 (47.1%)
Lib Dem: 4264 (9.3%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJORITY: 9911 (21.6%)

Sitting MP: Sandra Osborne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This is an interesting seat in that until 1992 it was a Tory seat held by Phil Gallie. It has a core Tory vote which has been increasing since 1992. The only way the Tories can regain this seat is if the Labour votes crashes to the SNP. If that happened, it’s possible for the SNP to take the seat, but either of these scenarios is pretty fanciful.

46. Dumfries & Galloway

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16501 (31.6%)
Labour: 23950 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 4608 (8.8%)
SNP: 6419 (12.3%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 7449 (14.3%)

Sitting MP: Russell Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On the face of it a relatively safe call for Labour. Or is it? This seat has been held by the SNP and the Tories in recent memory. Either could come through the middle here, but I’m sticking with a ‘safe’ prediction here.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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