There are 73 parliamentary seats in London. If Ed Miliband is to form a government he needs to make many gains in the capital.

As things stand, this is the state of the parties

Conservative 28
Labour 38
LibDem 7

In my January predictions I predicted

Conservative 26
Labour 45
LibDem 3

I only propose to make three revisions to my original predictions, two of which are to the advantage of the LibDems and one to Labour…

Sutton & Cheam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20548 (42.4%)
Labour: 3376 (7%)
Lib Dem: 22156 (45.7%)
BNP: 1014 (2.1%)
Green: 246 (0.5%)
UKIP: 950 (2%)
English Dem: 106 (0.2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1608 (3.3%)

Sitting MP: Paul Burstow (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem hold

The Labour vote has halved to 7.7% since 1997 and will inevitably rise in 2015. Paul Burstow is standing again and incumbency could play a vital role if he is to retain his seat, but if the Tory vote holds up, he may have a problem. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll was pretty conclusive, 45-27. I missed this when I did my original prediction.

Carshalton & Wallington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16920 (36.8%)
Labour: 4015 (8.7%)
Lib Dem: 22180 (48.3%)
BNP: 1100 (2.4%)
Green: 355 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1348 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 5260 (11.5%)

Sitting MP: Tom Brake (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem gain

Somewhat charismatically challenged Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but the Labour vote here is bound to recover. However, I’d say this was a 50/50 prediction and could easily go the other way. This would be the sixth time Brake has fought the seat and that counts for a lot. UPDATE: The Ashcroft poll is even more conclusive than the one above 43-23.

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

Sitting MP: Glenda Jackson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: Labour hold

Glenda Jackson is standing down. Her successor candidate, Tulip Siddiq, faces a doughty campaigner in the Tory Simon Marcus but this seat will be determined by whoever wins the most former LibDem voters to their side. UPDATE 11/1/15: I’ve had a lot of new info on this seat and have changed it to a Tory gain. UPDATE 17/3/15 The LibDem support seems to be going to Labour. The Ashcroft poll has them ahead 47-30. So a double change of mind here, I’m afraid!

I now predict…

Conservative 23
Labour 46
LibDem 5

This gives a national readout of

Conservative 275
Labour 277
LibDem 26
SNP 42
Plaid Cymru 3
Respect 1
Green 1
Sinn Fein 5
Others 2