There are 75 constituencies in the North West, which includes Cheshire, Liverpool, Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Cumbria.
In my original predictions in January this was the state of the parties…
This is the seats that I am revising…
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised Prediction: LibDem hold
This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here. UPDATE: I’ve changed my mind on this. I had missed the Ashcroft poll, which is fairly conclusive, with the LibDems on 37 and the Tories trailing badly on 24.
So the prediction becomes…
Which means my countrywide predictin looks like this…
Plaid Cymru 4
Sinn Fein 5