There are 40 parliamentary constituencies in Wales. In my original predictions I only predicted two changes in the political make-up, Cardiff Central and Cardiff North, both to Labour from the LibDems and the Conservatives. This is how Wales looked then…

Conservative 7
Labour 28
LibDem 2
Plaid Cymru 3

I am changing my mind on two LibDem held seats…


2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong. UPDATE: I had a flood of correspondence suggesting I have got this wrong. Looking at some of the Welsh blogs and academic websites I’m tempted to agree.

Brecon & Radnorshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Roger Williams
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: Conservative gain

A Conservative gain here is possible but not definite. One of the tightest results in 2015, I’d think. The LibDems must be hoping that Roger Williams will definitely stand again, because if they hold onto this seat it will be in large part down to his personal vote. A few months ago I tipped this seat to go blue. I’m revising that now to a very narrow LibDem win. The Ashcroft polls show a definite loss to the Tories when people are asked who they will vote for in the election. But when they are asked to think about their own particular constituency the situation is dramatically reversed and the LibDems are ahead by 4%. UPDATE: I’m going to change my mind again. The LibDems have imploded in Wales far more than in England and I now think they will end up with no seats there.

So that changes the Welsh predictions to…

Conservative 8
Labour 28
LibDem 0
Plaid Cymru 4

And the UK wide predictions are updated to…

Conservative 276
Labour 277
LibDem 24
SNP 42
Plaid Cymru 4
Respect 1
Green 1
Sinn Fein 5
Others 2*