Local elections are always an expectations game and revolve around each party trying to convince us pundits and voters in advance that they’re going to do far worse than we all think, and therefore when they don’t, they can claim it as a victory. To that extent they are very predictable. However, this year there are a number of curveball factors to consider, not least the fact there are two national elections taking place in Wales and Scotland, plus 6 mayoral elections in London.
The only crumb of hope for Labour may be in four of the five London mayoral elections. The other one, in Tower Hamlets, is likely to remain beyond their reach. However, there is a strong challenge from the Greens in Hackney and Lewisham, and Reform in Barking & Dagenham. In Croydon, the main challenge to Labour is coming from the Conservatives, but they could well be undermined by Reform. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Labour could end up winning not a single one of the 5 London mayoral contests, but that really would be worst case scenario. If they can pull off two, they will be mightily relieved.
In London, Labour is tipped to lose control of at least 14 of the Boroughs they currently control. The Greens will perform well in inner London, and Reform in outer London. A test of whether there’s any sort of Conservative revival will come in boroughs like Barnet, Westminster, Wandsworth and Bromley. Expect the LibDems to make more advances in south-west London.
I think the stories of Thursday will emerge in Wales and Scotland. In Scotland Labour may well be eclipsed by Reform UK in second place to a resurgent SNP, which is targeting a majority in the Scottish Parliament. I am doubtful about whether they will achieve that, but it’s certainly possible.
In Wales, where I hosted a six-way leaders debate on Thursday, Labour are in for a drubbing and will lose power for the first time in 27 years. Plaid’s Rheen ap Yorweth will become First Minister, but whether he can put together a viable coalition remains to be seen. It’s the first time a 100 per cent party list system has been used. The Greens will enter the Parliament for the first time, and there will be 96 members, compared with the current 55. Reform have edged ahead in the polls, but I think it is doubtful they will be able to get the 48 seats needed even if they can persuade the Conservatives to go into coalition with them. Which I’m not sure they can.
In the English councils, everyone is predicting Labour losses of maybe 1500, the Tories losing several hundred, the LibDems making a couple of hundred gains, with Reform UK and the Greens being the big winners. I suspect that’s how it will shake down. Or will the Labour vote surprise us all and be far more resilient than everyone thinks? I doubt it, but you never know. The other possibility is that Reform UK could flatter to deceive and fall short of expectations. Again, I doubt it. I think they will be the big winners of the night.
One final thing. It is an absolute disgrace that virtually all of the counts will take place on Friday rather than on Thursday night. Only 30 councils will be counting overnight. Does security of the ballot mean nothing any longer? If I had the chance, I’d introduce a bill to force councils to count as soon as the final ballot has been cast!
I will be doing an extra show on Friday evening where we will be rounding up the day’s results and assessing the implications. Not least for the future of our dear prime minister.