The elections on 7th May could turn out to be seismic in their political consequences. They’re a mix of parliamentary elections in both Scotland and Wales, as well as in local councils and mayoralties all over England. In Scotland the conventional wisdom is that the SNP will win with Reform UK pipping Labour into second place. In Wales, Labour is expected to lose power for the first time ever, with Reform UK pipping Labour into second place and Plaid Cymru topping the polls. In England the main speculation is how badly Labour will lose, and will there be a subsequent leadership crisis. Both Reform UK and the Greens are expected to make spectacular gains, the with Conservatives not only failing to make many gains, but losing yet more seats. The polls show the LibDems languishing, but they always outperform the polls in local elections, so they will make gains in both councillors and councils that they control.
Tomorrow night at 7pm, I have the LibDem leader Sir Ed Davey on the show for an hour long-phone-in. There could also be consequences for his leadership, if things don’t go to plan. Some of his MPs don’t see a strategy and complain that there is no strategy coming from the centre. He will point to the fact that they were all elected under his leadership. MPs never look back, though. They always look forward and their thoughts are dominated by the prospects of re-election. And the fact is, many of those who won their seats in the south and south-west know that many of them only won because Reform took so many votes away from the Conservatives, rather than because of any massive increase in the LibDem vote. Now in theory, history may repeat itself, but with our politics so fluid at the moment, LibDem MPs would rather have a positive offering to the electorate rather than repeat the stuntfest of 2024. Tune in tomorrow at 7!