This time last year, as the Conservative conference began in Manchester, many commentators predicted it was only a matter of time before Kemi Badenoch was ousted and Robert Jenrick would be installed as her replacement. Oh what a difference twelve months can make. Robert who?
After that conference I had a series of messages from friends saying: “I now see what you have always seen in her”.
I always had confidence that Kemi would come good. And she has, but as she well knows, there’s a long way to go before the voters will give the Conservative party a serious hearing again. She’s got to first base and established herself as a serious politician, who is good at opposition. She’s got the respect of her opponents as well as most of her own party. Indeed, unlike most Conservative leaders, her position as leader is unassailable. It’s a luxury no leader since David Cameron has enjoyed.
Although Andy Burnham has overtaken her as the most popular political leader in Britain, most pundits accept that this will not last beyond Christmas.
The main challenge facing Kemi Badenoch is that the popularity of her party has not caught up with her own ratings. This should not be a surprise. It is only two years since the catastrophic defeat in July 2024. Last time they suffered that scale of trouncing it took a decade for the opinion polls to change. Kemi is a woman in a hurry and intends to turn things round far more quickly.
There are positive signs. Before last year’s conference the party was polling an average of 16-18%. Their ratings are now somewhere between 19 and 23%. On average there has been a 2-3% improvement. This is certainly nothing to write home about, but it is a start.
In the last twelve months Kemi Badenoch’s net favourabilty ratings have turned round much more dramatically – by twenty per centage points. People are now not only giving her a hearing, but they are impressed by what they see.
The trouble is, it’s only her they see. Few of her shadow cabinet have stepped up to the plate and got any kind of public profile, let alone a favourable one. To an extent, this is a problem which afflicts all oppositions and opposition parties. Apart from Ed Davey, is there is a single LibDem who has made any impression on the public? Apart from their leader, Reform has Jenrick, Tice and Yusuf, but they still can’t even name a full shadow frontbench team? They don’t even have a shadow defence secretary, at a time when the world is a very dangerous place indeed and the threats to our country increase as every week goes by.
This week we are promised a cascade of new policies from the Conservatives. I just hope they are better than the one announced this morning on free childcare for couples who earn more than £100k between them. I totally get the £100k cliff edge is leading to people turning down promotions and is a disincentive to hard work, but what kind of madness is it to increase spending at a time when the Conservatives are rightly trying to convince us that they will be fiscally responsible. It’s utter madness and it’s this kind of financial incontinence which got us into this financial mess in the first place. I’m surprised it got past the new shadow chancellor, Andrew Griffith. It allows the Conservatives to be painted as only being in favour of the well-off at a time when they are rightly looking to restrict benefits elsewhere.
I’ve come to the conclusion that an early election is now more likely than not. Andy Burnham’s conference speech was essentially a taster for what would be in a Labour manifesto. It was all about jam tomorrow. There was no plan for the next two and a half years – everything was all about the next parliament. The truth is, politically things will not get any better for Andy Burnham than they are now. Reform have hit what Nigel Farage optimistically calls a trough. The Conservatives have few if any candidates selected and aren’t manifesto-ready, either. With the budget on 28 October, it’s perfectly feasible for Burnham to call an election shortly after that and hold it on 10 December. He’d lose a shedload of seats, but likely would still win, and then have a five-year mandate.
It doesn’t matter that Burnham has said on several occasions there won’t be an early election. All prime ministers do that until they call one. He could easily come up with an explanation, just as he did this week on reopening the Brexit issue, only three months after he ruled out doing just that.
Kemi Badenoch will insist that she is all in favour of an early election. She has to. But in truth, her party is not ready for it. If I were them, I’d be hastily composing a manifesto, just in case. And putting in place a plan to select hundreds of candidates within a fortnight of the budget.
We are about to enter a very interesting month of political offerings and debate. The next week could be crucial for the Conservative party and Kemi Badenoch, and whether they are able to progress in the polls. There’s a parallel to 2007 here. Gordon Brown looked set to call an election, but George Osborne then promised to cut Inheritance Tax, and all of a sudden the polls shifted. The Great Clunking Fist funked it.
It is rumoured that Kemi may announce a Conservative government would completely abolish inheritance tax in her conference speech on Wednesday. I’m not sure this would be the gamechanger that it was in 2007, but it would certainly be eye-catching.
Hold tight.