I understand why so many people are disillusioned with politics and politicians, but that being said, politics never fails to amaze, even if it doesn’t inspire. We live in an age of political fluidity, where party allegiances no longer mean an awful lot. Political parties have always been quote tribal. Many is the time I’ve knocked on a door to be told “We’re a Labour family. Always have been, always will be”, or “My Dad was a Conservative, so was his Dad, and so are we”. This is happening increasingly less as political barriers are broken down. You can date it back to 1970 when Margaret Thatcher offered traditional Labour voters the chance to buy their own council houses. This was psephologically transformative. As the years went on, Labour morphed from a party of the working classes to a party of middle class intellectuals. I exaggerate to make a point.

Margaret Thatcher made the Tory Party an acceptable home for previous Labour votes, just as Tony Blair created a New Labour narrative, which appealed to traditional centrist Conservatives. David Cameron did the same, with many Labour voters finding him a more appealing alternative to Gordon Brown. In more recent years, Boris Johnson attracted swathes of Brexit supporting Labour voters in 2019, who subsequently became disillusioned with his failure to deliver on his Levelling Up promises.

The thing is once you’ve voted against your traditional voting home once, it’s much easier to do it a second time. Parties now have to earn votes, rather than just rely on them. And when they fail to meet expectations, voters feel liberated to look elsewhere. This is what Keir Starmer is finding out at double quick speed. It’s something Rishi Sunak couldn’t fight against, because by the time he became prime minister voters had made up their mind that time was up for his party.

This is why the May elections are set to be the most exciting of recent decades, right across Great Britain. Traditional party allegiances will mean nothing. I predict that Wales is going to provide the biggest stories, with Scotland not being far behind. It is a shame – and a scandal – that local elections have been cancelled by the government in 29 areas across England, but it won’t save them from an electoral drubbing. The expectation is that the Conservatives will also have a terrible night, but I wonder if the growing reputation of Reform UK as being a home for failed Tories, might save a few Tory seats in some areas.

These elections also provide an opportunity for the LibDems and Greens to show us what they’re made of. My guess is that in England they will both make big progress.

But the big question is whether Reform can make a big breakthrough or will they flatter to deceive?

International affairs may be dominating, but domestically, our politics are certainly not going to be boring.

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