I write this as the Prime Minister has announced he's standing by Dominic Cummings and a lot of what follows is based on a Twitter thread that I posted last night.
I've been in isolation for 67 days in Kent. I could have driven 158 miles to my house in Norfolk, where in theory I would be safer. I didn't, because the rules apply to me too. The arrogance of "I don't care how it looks" is what riles me. 'Don't do as I do' is rarely a good look.
Jacqui Smith and I talk in detail about the Cummings and (not yet) goings in this weekend's For the Many podcast. I don't know Dominic Cummings. I have never met him or spoken to him to the best of my knowledge. If this story dominates the news headlines for the next five days it's difficult to see him surviving it. His best hope is that a massive story emerges over the next couple of days to which the media herd gravitates.
Boris Johnson regards him as a genius and will move heaven and earth to keep him, as he just made clear at the press conference. Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill were despatched overboard because of Theresa May's weak political position and the howls of outrage from Tory MPs and ministers.
A majority of 80 means there will be little pressure on Johnson from within. It will all come from without. After two major political climbdowns this week, the natural instinct of everyone in No 10 will be to ensure Keir Starmer doesn't score the hattrick. The Tory tribal wagons are already circling judging by the tweets coming from Cabinet ministers.
There are so many holes in both Cummings' version of events and the official Government statement, which effectively accuses Durham police of telling an untruth. The version also does not tie up with the article in The Spectator written by Cummings' wife, Mary Wakefield. If he does end up leaving his job, it will be these holes in the defence that do for him.
Any parent wants to do the best by their family. I get that. But when an adviser becomes the story, it rarely ends well. And this isn't the first time...
That was one of the worst press conferences I have ever seen. I wanted to hide behind the couch, but Bubba and Dude had got there before me. Seriously, what on earth was Boris Johnson thinking? Dominic Cummings is his Director of Strategy. They had both been closeted in Downing Street for four hours thinking up what Boris should say. And that's what they came up with. Jesus wept. Car crash doesn't really cover it.
There is only one way that this is ever going to be resolved. And it's for Dominic Cummings to do a sit down interview with someone and answer all the questions himself. It won't happen though. Number Ten think they can brazen it out, but I think they have badly miscalculated if they think this is just a Westminster bubble story and no one outside the M25 cares about it. On other things they may be right. On this they are not.