Watch: This Week's CNNTalk
- 20 May 2017
Every Friday at Noon, I appear on a new CNN show called CNNTalk. This is week 3 and we discuss Trump and the UK election. Presented by Max Foster, the other two guests are Ayesha Hazirika and Liam Halligan. If you like it, do watch it live on CNN next Friday at 12 noon. It’s...
Assange Remains the Sleazebag He Always Was, And Must Be Put On Trial In This Country For Jumping Bail
- 19 May 2017
Six and a half years ago, in December 2010, I was asked by the Mail on Sunday to write a column on Julian Assange. When it appeared I was traduced and slagged off by his many supporters. How could I not understand what a hero he is, I was asked? Very easily, as it happens. Any...
ConHome Diary: Why the PM Needs Another PPS (or Two) & When Will The Speaker Go?
- 19 May 2017
If there is a Conservative landslide of anything like the scale most pundits seem to expect I think the Prime Minister will need to think very carefully about her relationship with Tory backbenchers. Dealing with 390 or 400 MPs is very different to dealing with 330. May I make...
New European Diary: Meat Loaf Tattoos & Emily Thornberry's Panzer
- 17 May 2017
It was a wonderful sight to behold – Emily Thornberry in full Panzer mode on Marr telling Michael Fallon he was talking ‘bollocks’. Andrew Marr was so shocked he remained mute. Michael Fallon didn’t quite know what to say. The rest of us watching just roared with laughter. I’v...
In the New House of Commons The Number of Women MPs Is Unlikely To Rise Much - But There Will be 24 More Female Tories...
- 14 May 2017
Over the last few days I have been burnishing my credentials as a political geek and been carrying out some research about the likely makeup of the next House of Commons. In particular the likely number of women MPs. I’ve used my Seat by Seat predictions to analyse how many fe...
The 85 Seats That Will Change Hands on June 8th ... (Probably)
- 13 May 2017
I’ve been tinkering with my seat by seat predictions today, mainly in the light of the fact that UKIP aren’t standing in 243 seats including one or two key marginals. It hasn’t changed my predictions too much though. The main change is that I think it may mean Norman Lamb migh...
ConHome Diary: The Electoral Commission Should Be Wound Up
- 13 May 2017
And so the CPS decided to take no further action against the 14 MPs the Electoral Commission fingered for allegedly filing inaccurate election expenses after the 2015 election. They’ve left Craig Mackinlay swinging in the wind, but I suspect he’ll be OK. I cannot imagine the C...
New European Election Diary: Flies Undone on Newsnight
- 10 May 2017
I’m really not sure about this so-called ‘Progressive Alliance’. I mean, what’s progressive about subverting democracy? If a political party is serious about power it should stand in every seat. To pick and choose the seats you put up candidates in, based upon your dislike for...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: Final Totals - We're Heading for A Conservative Majority of 130ish
- 7 May 2017
Over the last three weeks I have been trying to predict the outcome of each of the 650 seats up for grabs at this election. Here is my final seat prediction… Conservative 392 (62) Labour 163 (-69) Liberal Democrats 16 (7) SNP 53 (-3) Plaid Cymru 5 (2) Green 2 (1) DUP 8 (-) UU...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 69. Tyne & Wear
- 7 May 2017
TYNE & WEAR Seats: 12 Current Political Makeup: Lab 12 Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Lab 12 1. *Blaydon 2010 Result: Conservative: 7159 (15.9%) Labour: 22297 (49.6%) Lib Dem: 13180 (29.3%) BNP: 2277 (5.1%) MAJORITY: 9117 (20.3%) 2015 Result: Labour Dave And...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 68. Staffordshire
- 7 May 2017
STAFFORDSHIRE Seats: 12 Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 4 Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 11, Lab 1 1. Burton 2010 Result: Conservative: 22188 (44.5%) Labour: 15884 (31.9%) Lib Dem: 7891 (15.8%) BNP: 2409 (4.8%) UKIP: 1451 (2.9%) MAJORITY: 6304 (12.7%) ...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 67. London North West
- 7 May 2017
LONDON NORTH WEST Seats: 10 Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 5 Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 3 Brent Central 2010 Result: Conservative: 5067 (11.2%) Labour: 18681 (41.2%) Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%) Green: 668 (1.5%) Respect: 230 (0.5%) Christian: 488 ...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 66. London North East
- 7 May 2017
LONDON NORTH EAST Seats: 11 Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 9 Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 7 Chingford & Woodford Green 2010 Result: Conservative: 22743 (52.8%) Labour: 9780 (22.7%) Lib Dem: 7242 (16.8%) BNP: 1288 (3%) Green: 650 (1.5%) UKIP:...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 65. Derbyshire
- 7 May 2017
DERBYSHIRE Seats: 11 Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Labour 4 Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 3 1. Amber Valley 2010 Result: Conservative: 17746 (38.6%) Labour: 17210 (37.4%) Lib Dem: 6636 (14.4%) BNP: 3195 (7%) UKIP: 906 (2%) Others: 265 (0.6%) MAJORIT...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 64: Northamptonshire
- 7 May 2017
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Seats: 7 Current Political Makeup: Con 7 Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7 1. Corby 2010 Result: Conservative: 22886 (42.2%) Labour: 20991 (38.7%) Lib Dem: 7834 (14.4%) BNP: 2525 (4.7%) MAJORITY: 1895 (3.5%) BY ELECTION Andy Sawford (Labour) ...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 63: Leicestershire
- 7 May 2017
LEICESTERSHIRE Seats: 10 Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 3 Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 3 1. Bosworth 2010 Result: Conservative: 23132 (42.6%) Labour: 8674 (16%) Lib Dem: 18100 (33.3%) BNP: 2458 (4.5%) UKIP: 1098 (2%) English Dem: 615 (1.1%) Oth...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 62: Wiltshire
- 6 May 2017
WILTSHIRE Seats: 7 Current Political Makeup: Con 7 Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7 1. Chippenham 2010 Result: Conservative: 21500 (41%) Labour: 3620 (6.9%) Lib Dem: 23970 (45.8%) BNP: 641 (1.2%) Green: 446 (0.9%) UKIP: 1783 (3.4%) English Dem: 307 (0.6%) Chr...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 61. Surrey
- 6 May 2017
SURREY Seats: 11 Current Political Makeup: Con 11 Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 11 1. East Surrey 2010 Result: Conservative: 31007 (56.7%) Labour: 4925 (9%) Lib Dem: 14133 (25.9%) UKIP: 3770 (6.9%) Independent: 383 (0.7%) Others: 422 (0.8%) MAJORITY: 16874 (...
General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 60. Berkshire
- 6 May 2017
BERKSHIRE Seats: 8 Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1 Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 1 1. Bracknell 2010 Result: Conservative: 27327 (52.4%) Labour: 8755 (16.8%) Lib Dem: 11623 (22.3%) BNP: 1253 (2.4%) Green: 821 (1.6%) UKIP: 2297 (4.4%) Others: 60 ...
The Three Candidates (From Three Different Parties) I Am Going to Donate To In This Election
- 6 May 2017
Elections cost money. Contrary to popular rumour, most local candidates don’t have huge amounts of money to fund their campaigns. And they have to raise money to fund their campaigns. Each candidate (depending on the number of voters and whether the constituency is rural or ur...